The NFL season is upon us, and NFL Power Rankings come along with it. It’s difficult to know exactly how the season will shape up. The best we can do is look at last season’s performances and the offseason moves made to try and predict the future. Many factors will change our perceptions of each team during the regular season, such as injuries, surprise performers, and underachievers.
NFL Power Rankings: Tier 4 | Rebuilding teams
Don’t expect playoff pushes from any of the teams in Tier 4. However, some of them are improving, while others are stuck in a rut of mediocrity.
32) Chicago Bears
Bears fans are in for a long season. But while they won’t compete for double-digit wins in 2022, it doesn’t mean they have nothing to look forward to. The progression of Justin Fields is all that matters moving forward for the Bears. The young quarterback has all the talent in the world to be an outstanding intermediate and downfield passer, but a lackluster offensive line won’t often allow him to attack that area with his speedy receiving corps.
Jaquan Brisker looks like the real deal out of Penn State, and Kyler Gordon should be about as NFL-ready as any Washington DB does after leaving the Huskies. But keeping Fields upright and healthy enough not to risk stunting his growth in an untenable situation is all that really matters, or else they might be looking for another option sooner rather than later.
31) Atlanta Falcons
Seeing Marcus Mariota given a chance at redemption is a heartwarming story of the once second-overall pick behind Jameis Winston, who has also received a second chance. Both players displayed flashes of being potential franchise starters but just fell short of the mark in their first go around.
Mariota doesn’t have the talent Winston does surrounding him, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta has a better offensive line than Chicago, which is why they rank higher in the NFL Power Rankings. They also improved their receiving corps and tried improving their defense by adding Casey Hayward and multiple names through the 2022 NFL Draft.
30) Houston Texans
Houston looked to potentially have the worst running back lineup in the league heading into the season, but Dameon Pierce exploded onto the scene early in the preseason. They invested heavily into the secondary during the NFL draft, adding Derek Stingley Jr. and do-it-all safety Jalen Pitre in the first two rounds of the draft, along with guard Kenyon Green.
Second-year QB Davis Mills showed some talent as a rookie third-rounder last season, but he has a long way to go as a playmaker before he’s considered a potential franchise signal-caller. Even with a few upgrades, Houston finished 31st in offense EPA per play a season ago and 26th on the defensive side of the ball.
29) New York Giants
The Giants’ defensive front looks stout heading into 2022, but the rest of their defense leaves much to be desired. Their linebacking corps of Tae Crowder, Cam Brown, and Micah McFadden won’t be mistaken for the Buccaneers’ LB group, and their secondary isn’t as talented as defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has grown accustomed to.
Brian Daboll is in a sticky predicament. Daniel Jones is in the final year of his contract and hasn’t proven to be a long-term answer for the Giants at QB. However, the Giants have tried improving the offensive line through the draft and free agency, so we should be able to get a clear picture of what Jones could be moving forward with arguably his best supporting cast surrounding him.
28) Detroit Lions
The Lions’ receiving corps is already much improved from a season ago, and they won’t get Jameson Williams back for quite some time after tearing his ACL in the National Championship Game. Detroit’s offensive line should be strong, and we should see a much stronger rushing attack than we did a season ago. Still, they don’t have the quarterback play to really compete in the NFC North.
Like the Giants, the Lions’ defensive front is strong, particularly on the edge with Aidan Hutchinson joining Charles Harris and Julian Okwara. Eventually, his older brother, Romeo, will return from his Achilles tear from Week 4 a season ago. Can Jeff Okudah become anything close to what we believed he could be as a Buckeye?
27) New York Jets
The Jets drastically improved their roster from a season ago, but in the end, it will all come down to Zach Wilson’s progression as a passer. The second-year signal-caller has already hit a setback this season, as he unnecessarily took a shot during the preseason that ended in a torn meniscus and a bone bruise of the knee.
Losing Mekhi Becton was a tough blow for New York long term, but in the short term, it may have been a net positive. Duane Brown is still a good left tackle, and the Jets were able to move George Fant back over to the right side of the line. They also added Laken Tomlinson to the offensive line, which is a massive addition for the Jets’ wide-zone rushing attack.
26) Jacksonville Jaguars
Nobody was more active in the offseason than Jacksonville. Ridding themselves of Urban Meyer was easily the best move of their offseason, but they also added a host of names in free agency. Christian Kirk, Brandon Scherff, and Evan Engram were all added to an offense that finished 28th in offensive EPA a season ago.
Jacksonville’s biggest additions, though, came on the defensive side of the ball. They added Arden Key, Foyesade Oluokun, Folorunso Fatukasi, and Darious Williams in free agency. The Jaguars also made huge strides on defense in the NFL draft. Devin Lloyd and Travon Walker were their two first-round picks, and they added athletic freak Chad Muma from Wyoming in Round 3.
25) Seattle Seahawks
Maybe Geno Smith can be enough to get the Seattle offense moving in the right direction when Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are both on the field. After all, just a season ago, Smith had a higher EPA-per-play rating than Russell Wilson. If the Seattle offensive line can function enough to keep the rushing attack efficient, the offense could be enough to elevate their standing into the next tier of NFL teams.
Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor are a solid pass-rushing duo, and Alton Robinson flashed for a bit a season ago. Seattle’s defensive backfield is probably their Achilles heel. Losing Shaq Griffin in free agency was a tough blow. They’re putting a ton of responsibility on Sidney Jones, along with rookies Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant, if they’re able to unseat Artie Burns at cornerback.
NFL Power Rankings: Tier 3 | Fringe playoff rosters
It would take a lot of dominoes falling in the right direction to see these four teams make the playoffs in 2022.
24) Washington Commanders
The Commanders’ defense that was supposed to dominate a season ago ended up finishing 29th in defensive EPA on the season. To say they underwhelmed would be an understatement.
Unfortunately, Washington will be without Chase Young to start the season, as he landed on the PUP list with his ACL tear from a season ago. They lack depth at the position, which could hurt their defensive efficiency.
Carson Wentz is on his third team in three seasons, and a season ago on a good Indianapolis team, he finished 21st in the EPA+CPOE composite. However, one of Washington’s strong points a season ago was their overperforming offensive line. Jahan Dotson was a fantastic addition in the first round of the NFL draft.
23) Carolina Panthers
If Baker Mayfield can be the Baker Mayfield we saw in Cleveland in 2020, the Panthers could be one of the surprise playoff teams in the NFC. It would track with Matt Rhule’s history of three-season turnarounds, although his stint in the NFL has not gone as smoothly as his time at Temple and Baylor.
The Carolina defense is young and talented, with one of the most innovative defensive coordinators in the league leading the way for the Panthers in Phil Snow. Last season, they finished seventh in defensive EPA, and they’ll get Jaycee Horn back from an Achilles injury before his rookie season started.
22) Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh’s offensive line would be enough for most coaches to not want to start a rookie quarterback. However, Kenny Pickett seemed poised and ready to play behind the severely underwhelming line. Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin will start Mitch Trubisky, seemingly trying to save his young quarterback from having to endure behind what Pittsburgh will field up front.
It’s probably not the best move for the team’s win-loss record, but the Steelers’ OL could do irreparable harm to Pickett. Unfortunately, that same offensive line will be trying to open up holes for Najee Harris, who will undoubtedly take the brunt of the Steelers’ offensive woes.
21) New England Patriots
We’re in a holding pattern with the Patriots. Losing Josh McDaniels is a massive loss to New England. Their offensive line is still outstanding, and Bill Belichick is still their head coach, so it’s tough to completely bury the team, just like the Steelers with Mike Tomlin.
Mac Jones’ progression will be the most interesting part of New England’s season, along with the ever-lasting running-back-by-committee approach they use.
Losing J.C. Jackson feels like a huge loss for New England, but Belichick has always found a way to get the most out of his defensive backs. The Patriots’ safety trio is outstanding, and Jabril Peppers is a nice fourth option. They also have a strong defensive line.
20) Cleveland Browns
The Browns’ roster is good enough to compete for the playoffs, but they’re missing Deshaun Watson for the first 11 games of the season. Jacoby Brissett is a far cry from Watson, and the team will struggle without their franchise QB. Cleveland’s receiving corps is underwhelming, which won’t help Brissett, who has never emerged as a franchise-caliber talent.
Defensively, Cleveland could be very good, but they have a massive weakness. Their defensive interior is one of the worst positional units in the NFL at any position. Greg Newsome and Denzel Ward could be the best cornerback duo in the NFL if they can remain healthy. However, that’s asking a lot of the two, particularly Newsome. The Browns also have a bit of depth in the secondary, which is a huge plus.
NFL Power Rankings: Tier 2 | Playoff contenders
Three teams were added to the mix here in Tier 2, specifically because of the definition of “contender” in Merriam-Webster. Each franchise probably fits into the battle for their respective Wild Card berths.
19) Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are an incredibly difficult team to project. Their defense improved during the offseason, and they finished 12th in EPA a season ago. However, their offense was the underwhelming part of the team, finishing 17th in the same metric on offense.
Minnesota’s biggest issue was running the football. They finished 24th in rushing EPA and 29th in defensive success rate, mostly due to their woes on the offensive line. They struggled to generate a solid push, which led to Dalvin Cook’s least efficient season as a pro.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Vikings rise steadily in the rankings. Their defensive front is strong, and they have one of the best linebackers in the NFL in Eric Kendricks. However, a trio of Patrick Peterson, Cameron Dantzler, and Chandon Sullivan is not the strongest cornerback group in the league. But Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum, and Lewis Cine are an outstanding trio.
18) New Orleans Saints
The Saints are being criminally ignored this offseason. One year ago, they finished 9-8 behind horrific quarterback play. The Saints started 5-2 with Sean Payton trying everything he could to hide Jameis Winston in the Saints offense, to the detriment of their rushing attack. Now, a healthy and unlocked Winston with a strong receiving corps could be what this team needs to flip it around.
The Saints’ defense finished second in defensive EPA per play a season ago and has been arguably the most consistent defense in the league over the past five seasons. They also added Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye to the mix after losing Marcus Williams to Baltimore in free agency.
17) Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are in a similar situation. They had a strong defense a season ago and are staring at an offense that could be exponentially improved a season later. If Mike McDaniel can be anything close to what Kyle Shanahan has been in San Francisco, the Dolphins’ passing attack could be endlessly efficient with weapons like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Miami’s secondary needs to get healthy. Byron Jones is starting the year on PUP, and Nik Needham, Keion Crossen, and most importantly, Xavien Howard, are all currently banged up. Luckily, Jevon Holland already looks to be on his way to superstardom, and they have a ton of talent and depth on the defensive line.
16) Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are the most difficult team to project in the NFL. Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses have historically declined at a rapid rate throughout the season for his entire coaching career. In his NFL career, 2019 wasn’t as bad, but the offense sputtered in both 2020 and 2021.
Now, the Cardinals will begin the season without DeAndre Hopkins, something Kyler Murray has struggled to deal with in his time with Arizona. But it’s their defense that really makes the team confusing. The Cardinals’ defensive depth chart is not great, and it’s even worse when we look at what Vance Joseph normally looks for in his defensive backs.
15) Tennessee Titans
Losing Harold Landry III is a catastrophic loss for the Tennessee defense. They have absolutely no depth at the position and will rely almost exclusively on Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry on the defensive interior to rush the passer. Bud Dupree and Ola Adeniyi aren’t an appetizing duo no matter how you slice it.
Offensively, the Titans traded star receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles, making Robert Woods WR1 in Tennessee. They also have a massive question at right tackle, where second-year tackle Dillon Radunz will start with Nicholas Petit-Frere breathing down his neck.
14) Indianapolis Colts
The Colts should be the best team in their division, but nothing is guaranteed. Just one season ago we thought they could be, and Tenneessee somehow maneuvered their way to the top seed in the AFC, while Indianapolis stumbled late to miss their playoff chances.
Matt Ryan should upgrade the offense’s consistency, and Jonathan Taylor is still one of the few running backs in the league that matter, with division-rival Derrick Henry being another in that small group.
If the Colts’ defense is without Shaquille Leonard for any extended period, the defense could struggle to regain footing. Indianapolis’ secondary could be scary good with the additions of Stephon Gilmore and Nick Cross.
13) Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos have lofty expectations, but the team’s offensive line must live up to their own expectations. Losing Tim Patrick is a huge loss, but their receiving corps had a bit of depth to start, so they still get to field Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler.
There has been good word about the Broncos’ defense during training camp. Patrick Surtain II will be a superstar, and the addition of D.J. Jones and Randy Gregory to the defensive front should supercharge the defense. K’Waun Williams was another strong addition to the secondary, although it will be interesting to see if they can evolve despite losing one of the greatest defensive minds in football in Vic Fangio.
12) Las Vegas Raiders
Josh McDaniels has a lot to overcome offensively. He comes from a roster that’s consistently had outstanding OL play to a roster with one of the most underwhelming lines in the league. Nevertheless, he should be able to get the ball out of Derek Carr’s hands quickly.
Adding Patrick Graham was as significant as McDaniels. Graham is one of the brightest NFL defensive minds. He’s struggled with poor talent on his side of the ball during his time at New York but has more talent there now than he has in the past. Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby should elevate the team’s passing defense.
11) Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have a better roster than the Dallas Cowboys. If Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni can unlock the middle of the field with their passing attack, the Eagles could walk away with the East title and be a serious contender in the NFC.
They already had the most successful rushing attack in the NFL a season ago and finished third in rushing EPA. Philadelphia’s offensive line is dominant, and adding A.J. Brown should supercharge their passing attack.
10) Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys finished 2021 with the third-best defensive EPA-per-play output. Micah Parsons is a freak of nature, and Trevon Diggs is one of the best ball-hawking cornerbacks in the NFL. A healthy Demarcus Lawrence will be a huge addition to the defense, even with the loss of Gregory.
It’s been a long time since we’ve had to question the offensive side of the ball for Dallas. Losing Tyron Smith for a very extended period is a massive blow to an offensive line that was already going to have new pieces up front. Now, rookie Tyler Smith will start at left tackle, at least until Jason Peters is ready. They’ll also start the season without Michael Gallup and James Washington, which means the team will lack weapons to start.
9) San Francisco 49ers
It’s probably prudent to head into the 2022 NFL season with some apprehension towards the 49ers. That’s not happening here. What Shanahan was able to do with Jimmy Garoppolo was the work of miracles. Trey Lance is very inexperienced, but he’s also supremely talented compared to his well-compensated backup.
The 49ers get a bit of a tune-up game against the Bears, who rank last in our NFL Power Rankings. As long as Lance doesn’t overwhelm with mistakes, they should walk away with an easy Week 1 win. Lance could make the offense vastly more explosive, both in the passing attack and the run game.
8) Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens will be one of the most electrifying teams in the NFL if they can remain healthy. Unfortunately, their IR list is already the length of a CVS receipt. Baltimore’s rushing attack will be strong once again, with J.K. Dobbins returning from his injuries a season ago, and the Ravens added Tyler Linderbaum to the offensive line.
Baltimore will ask a lot of second-year receiver Rashod Bateman after trading Marquise Brown to Arizona. However, Mark Andrews will take some of that pressure away, as will the rushing attack. Adding Marcus Williams and Kyle Fuller to the defensive backfield are two boom-or-bust moves, but if they boom, there won’t be many teams throwing against them.
7) Green Bay Packers
The Packers are uniquely built. They have an All-Pro-caliber QB and a defense with incredible talent at all three levels of the defense. The lackluster receiving corps could be a bit of an offensive issue, but the offensive line and Rodgers’ own skill will allow things to develop in the passing attack. In addition, the run game should be strong once again with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
6) Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are an even bigger paper tiger than Green Bay. The front office worked as hard as any during the offseason to improve their roster, particularly on defense. The defensive interior lacked beef a season ago, and it allowed opposing offenses to run all over them. Adding J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack were massive additions, as Mack also helps improve the run defense. Austin Johnson and Sebastian Joseph-Day do the same on the interior.
LA’s offense wasn’t a problem a season ago, even if the construction of it isn’t ideal for Justin Herbert’s talents. Joe Lombardi lacks a bit of the creativity we see from Brian Daboll or Andy Reid, but Herbert makes up for that. They also added Zion Johnson to the offensive line, which will make for four strong spots on the line, with RT being the only sore spot.
NFL Power Rankings: Tier 1 | Super Bowl contenders
The five teams in Tier 1 could all be the eventual Super Bowl champions. While other teams could elevate their status, the teams in the top five should be seen as the favorites.
5) Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford’s arm seems to be intact after all. The addition of Allen Robinson is one of the most intriguing moves of the offseason, as Sean McVay has never had a receiver like him before. Seeing a traditional X receiver in McVay’s offense will be fascinating. What will be most interesting will be to see how the Rams’ offensive line does without Andrew Whitworth.
Aaron Donald and Greg Gaines are one of the best interior duos in the league. Gaines doesn’t get the attention he deserves as a run defender, but that’s likely because he lines up against the best player in the league. Seeing how the DBs perform without Darious Williams in the defensive backfield will be another interesting development.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Losing Ryan Jensen was a significant loss for the Buccaneers’ offensive line. His injury means that the entire interior OL will look different from a season ago. But that shouldn’t matter too much because one of the new names is Shaq Mason, who is one of the best guards in the league.
The Tampa Bay secondary suffered many injuries a season ago and will need to stay healthy this year if they want to land at the top of the NFC teams in the NFL Power Rankings as the regular season ends.
3) Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill, and they weren’t able to replace him with a player of similar talents. Yet, we seem to keep forgetting that Patrick Mahomes is still the most talented quarterback in the league.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has had some down seasons in Pittsburgh recently, but Pittsburgh’s offensive line and quarterback issues were a big reason for that. Kansas City, meanwhile, still has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
The Chiefs’ biggest issue is their lack of pass-rush talent on the edge. Chris Jones is one of the best in the league on the inside, but they don’t have any trusted bodies on the edge. They let Tyrann Mathieu walk, but added Justin Reid to the safety room and drafted Trent McDuffie to be their cornerback opposite of L’Jarius Sneed.
2) Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals made an improbable run to the Super Bowl a season ago, but they improved their offensive line heading into this season, and expectations will be unbelievably high this year. A season ago, Cincinnati finished 11th in both offensive and defensive EPA. They should battle for top 10 spots in each for 2022.
Aside from their offensive line, the Bengals built for the now and future by adding Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt, although he’s on IR to start the season. It will take a lot for the Bengals to make it through a ridiculously talented AFC, but Joe Burrow’s “it factor” could be enough to keep their magical run going.
1) Buffalo Bills
The problem with the Bengals keeping their magical run going is the Buffalo Bills. While their offensive line is a weak point, Buffalo has one of the strongest pass-rushing units of the last decade. They’ve invested heavily in the defensive line in the NFL draft and then hit a home run by signing Von Miller in free agency.
Add in a talented receiving corps being thrown the ball by Josh Allen, and the Bills should be the most dangerous team in the NFL a season after they finished first in defensive EPA and fourth in offensive EPA. They’ll start the season without Tre’Davious White, but they survived without him a season ago. The Chiefs needed the perfect performance from Mahomes to eek past the Bills in the Divisional Round a season ago. Buffalo will look to rectify that this season.