The NFC South is the worst division in the NFL from top to bottom. Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took home the crown with an 8-9 record, making them the fourth team since 2000 to win their division with a losing record.
Although the chances of that happening again are very unlikely, from a distance, none of the four teams inside the NFC South made significant enough strides to avoid mediocrity in 2023.
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NFC South Power Rankings
Mickey Loomis and the New Orleans Saints have been trying to compete for a long, long time now. The Atlanta Falcons are trendy now because of the moves they made and the pieces they snatched away from the Saints. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers drafted their franchise QB and hired an all-star staff. And the division’s winner from a season ago saw Tom Brady actually retire this offseason.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see any of the four teams win the NFC South in January. But this is how things shape up now.
1) New Orleans Saints
Dennis Allen calling the shots at the top might not fill Saints’ fans with a ton of confidence heading into the season given his head coaching record, but it’s hard to deny the long-time defensive coordinator can field a solid defense.
Losing Ryan Nielsen, who heads to Atlanta as their defensive coordinator, could make things more difficult for a defense that, while still talented, is aging in a few spots and lost some key contributors in the offseason.
Belief in the Saints comes from the perceived upgrade at quarterback. Derek Carr is a better option than any combination of Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, and Taysom Hill. An Alvin Kamara suspension looming doesn’t help, but getting a healthy Michael Thomas back would.
Although the South is tightly contested, New Orleans’ structure makes them a deserving favorite heading into the season.
2) Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a roster to compete and even beat the Saints on their march toward divisional dominance. The one and only issue just so happens to come at the most critical position in professional sports.
Desmond Ridder was well-received during the pre-draft process on the media side of things, and Atlanta liked him enough to avoid drafting another passer in this year’s draft.
Still, Ridder must continue to show marked improvement if the Falcons are to actually compete for the division. Adding pieces like Jessie Bates, David Onyemata, and Calais Campbell to the defense should take care of that side of the ball enough to remain competitive. But the run and play-action game must take another step forward, and Ridder must start mirroring a Ryan Tannehill-type for Arthur Smith.
3) Carolina Panthers
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Panthers win the NFC South in 2023. Although Carolina’s defense was unable to replicate their top-10 performance from 2021, they have the talent necessary to get back there and the defensive play-caller to put the pieces in the right place.
The Panthers’ season will come down to how quickly Bryce Young can progress and get his feet wet at the NFL level. The rookie has the playmaking ability to be a difference-maker, and Frank Reich’s offensive mind should allow the team to make things easier for Young early on.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers’ roster looks a bit like their Georgian counterparts. The defense is talented, but questions at quarterback put a damper on their division-title hopes.
Maintaining health on the offensive line will be imperative. Arguably Tampa Bay’s most significant issue a season ago was the disintegration of a once-feared offensive line due to retirements and injuries.
While the pieces are still in place to contend inside the division, a combination of Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield isn’t one to inspire confidence. And until we see them receiving live snaps against opposing defenses, it’s impossible to buy in.