The AFC West has been a forgone conclusion since Patrick Mahomes stepped on the field as the team’s starter for the first time in 2018. Kansas City hasn’t missed an AFC Championship Game since.
And while there may not be any shocking twists in the AFC West power rankings as we gear up for the regular season, that doesn’t mean the division lacks intrigue.
Be sure to check out our other divisional power rankings here: AFC East | AFC South | AFC North | NFC South | NFC East
AFC West Power Rankings
The Los Angeles Chargers finally brought in a new offensive coordinator. That coordinator is now in Denver with new head coach Sean Payton, who has done an outstanding job avoiding headlines this offseason. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders traded Derek Carr and signed Jimmy Garoppolo.
1) Kansas City Chiefs
The defending Super Bowl champions are at the top of the list. One would think this a natural occurrence, but the NFL is supposedly a league of parity, and quite often, champions come and go with the wind. But the Kansas City Chiefs are dynastic.
It turns out that having the best player in the world on two feet who is still a top-five player on one foot is a bit of a cheat code. And although it’s very difficult to find consistent success on a yearly basis in a one-and-done playoff format, Patrick Mahomes clears the hurdle more often than not.
But he’s not alone. The offensive side of the ball gets the flowers, but the defense are the ones in the dirt. Steve Spagnuolo is a wizard. Kansas City’s defense is cyclical. They try a bunch of stuff early in the year, get their teeth kicked in while finding what works, and then they end up at league average or better by January.
And in a one-game scenario, Spagnuolo cooks like Walter White.
2) Los Angeles Chargers
The move from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore is a net positive, especially with a physical talent like Justin Herbert under center. However, that doesn’t mean details about Moore’s offense aren’t troubling at times.
Cowboys are introducing most drastic offensive change of Dak’s career. QB footwork’s a major emphasis—not only for QBs.
MG: “This is the first year we’ve really had to key in on how many steps he’s taking.”
CeeDee: “I can run my routes more comfortably.”https://t.co/kIha2gzVdi
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) August 6, 2023
Moore’s offense will threaten the intermediate areas of the field, particularly over the middle. But without emphasizing being on the same page and pace as the QB in his dropback, it’s all for naught.
We’ll see the same timing and miscommunication issues in LA that we saw at times in Dallas. Herbert’s aDOT will rise, and we’ll see more of the “WOW!” throws that maybe only he can make, but there will be more turnover-worthy plays as well.
But what the Chargers really need to take the next step in is improvements on defense. Once again, they were horrific against the run, finishing 29th in EPA and success rate.
3) Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos were an unmitigated disaster in 2022. Ejiro Evero, who is now manning the Carolina Panthers’ defense, had Denver looking like a top-three unit for most of the season. But the offense never got off the ground any higher than a newborn attempting to jump. As a result, the Broncos finished with just five wins.
The fit of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson is peculiar at best, considering Payton has effectively only directed a Drew Brees-led offense since 2006. It doesn’t take an expert to see how different those two QBs are. The only similarity is their vertically-challenged stature relative to the position’s prototype.
Losing Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler again before the season even starts is a gut punch, but the addition of Marvin Mims should help with the pain.
Payton can set high expectations and add pressure all he wants, but a “successful” season for the Broncos is one where they get Wilson back on track. Anything else should be seen as an added bonus, particularly when this is the third entire coaching staff to roll through in as many seasons.
4) Las Vegas Raiders
For a majority of the 32 franchises in the league, there’s a clear vision present. It’s clear the Arizona Cardinals are embracing a rebuild. It’s clear the Chicago Bears are building around Justin Fields to paint the clearest picture possible. And it’s clear the Minnesota Vikings are ousting veteran contracts to set up their future while still competing in the NFC North in 2023.
But what in tarnation are the Raiders doing?
They’re a roster with incredibly high-end talent at the top, with massive contracts, and a whole lot of filler elsewhere. Yes, the organization is still trying to pick up the shattered pieces left by the last regime. But how, exactly?