The AFC South is not good. The South hasn’t been all that interesting since the Jacksonville Jaguars shocked the world by being one bad call play away from defeating the New England Patriots in the 2017 season’s AFC Championship Game.
And while the division remains underwhelming as a whole, there’s more excitement surrounding the teams than there has been in recent times. Although the AFC South power rankings have a clear order now, the NFL regular season could drastically change that.
Be sure to check out our other divisional power rankings here: AFC East | AFC North | AFC West | NFC South | NFC East
AFC South Power Rankings
There have been wholesale changes in the AFC South this offseason. The Houston Texans changed coaches for the third consecutive season, and there’s a new sheriff in Indianapolis as well.
Additionally, each newly minted, first-time head coach gets to begin fresh with first-round rookie quarterbacks. And while the Tennessee Titans will still trot Ryan Tannehill onto the pitch, he’s in the final year of his deal, and the team has drafted two quarterbacks within the first three rounds in the past two drafts.
1) Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars’ season may be remembered a bit too fondly, but the way they finished was admirable. Jacksonville came storming back from the wilderness to win the division. Then, they came back from what against any non-Chargering team, would have likely been an insurmountable deficit.
The Jags also kept things close against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs, but even a hobbled Patrick Mahomes is too powerful to contain.
Jacksonville should only improve in Year 2 under Doug Pederson. Getting back a healthy Calvin Ridley could unlock a level of passing efficiency that few teams are even able to dream of, especially if Trevor Lawrence takes another step forward in his development as a pro.
2) Indianapolis Colts
It’s impossible to get over the thought of Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson in the same backfield of a Shane Steichen-led offense. Steichen’s Philadelphia run game made Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell produce as two of the most efficient runners in the league. No disrespect to either player, but they aren’t Taylor.
Unless Taylor’s willing to take significant financial damage by not playing, he’ll be on the field as soon as he’s able to physically perform.
Gus Bradley’s defense has a few new faces, and it could take a step back from last season if the young defensive backfield struggles. But the offense should be more efficient by default, even as Richardson takes his lumps as a young passer.
The run game should hide many of Indy’s offensive ailments, they have strong weapons on the outside, and the RPO and play-action game should help quell concerns on the offensive line.
3) Houston Texans
Honestly, the second and third spots in the order were a coin flip. The Texans have a really strong offensive line as long as Kenyon Green can improve from an abysmal rookie season and someone can provide adequate play in the center of the line between Juice Scruggs and Scott Quessenberry.
And while there are some fun young defensive pieces, Houston is still inexperienced, in a new defense, and lacking depth. But Dalton Schultz may very well catch 100 passes from C.J. Stroud. He’s an excellent safety blanket who should help keep the offense moving forward.
4) Tennessee Titans
The Titans have surprised in each season over the past three. First by overachieving in 2020 and 2021, then by falling apart in 2022.
It seems unlikely that a team built and bred to run the football and survive in the passing game by being incredibly efficient in the play-action game can find success with what they’re fielding on the offensive line. It may very well be the worst projected Week 1 unit we’ve seen over the past decade. The only redeeming quality is first-round pick Peter Skoronski, but an OL is only as good as its weakest link(s).
If Tennessee is going to win football games, it’ll come by playing solid defense. They have the talent to do it, but they’ve struggled to keep that side of the ball healthy over the past two seasons. But between Kristian Fulton, Amani Hooker, Kevin Byard, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Roger McCreary, and Elijah Molden, the Titans have more than enough talent on the back end to survive the onslaught of QB play in the AFC.
They just don’t seem to have the offense to keep up. But if things go poorly enough, we could catch a glimpse of Will Levis in the back half of the season.
