PFN's model wasn't high on the Texans entering the playoffs, as they dropped six of their final 11 games (including embarrassing losses to the Titans and Jets), ranked 28th in PFN's Offense+ metric, and were missing a number of key players.
However, Houston defeated the Chargers 32-12. Nico Collins had 122 receiving yards, which is the most by a Texans player in a postseason game (topping DeAndre Hopkins' previous record of 118 receiving yards).
Houston picked off Justin Herbert four times (including a pick) after he threw just three interceptions on 504 pass attempts during the regular season.
Herbert became only the second quarterback since 2000 to at least match his season total in a single postseason game since 2000, joining Tom Brady (two interceptions vs. the Texans in 2016). This was Herbert's first pick-six since Week 2 of the 2022 season.
The Rams sat nearly all of their top players in Week 18 with the NFC West title in hand. Though Los Angeles had seeding to play for, head coach Sean McVay prioritized getting some rest for his veteran stars and dropped to the No. 4 seed.
Los Angeles has been extremely inconsistent on both sides of the ball this season, but the best version of the Rams can compete with any team (as evidenced by their wins over the Bills and Vikings). Matthew Stafford had three weeks where he posted top-five QB+ scores this season. However, he also had eight weeks where he ranked 20th or worse.
And while the defense doesn't rank very highly in Defense+, the Rams also had five top-10 weekly finishes on that side of the ball. Entering the playoffs, the Rams are one of the biggest wild cards in the field, capable of playing a 44-42 fireworks show or a 12-6 slog.
Jayden Daniels and Co. went into Raymond James Stadium and pulled off the 23-20 upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, giving Washington its first postseason win since 2005. Washington joins last year's Texans as the only teams in NFL history to win a playoff game the same year they drafted a quarterback top-two overall.
The Commanders once again thrived in a clutch situation, marching down the field in the final minutes to kick a game-winning, doinked field goal.
Daniels became the sixth rookie QB in NFL history to lead a fourth-quarter comeback in the postseason and just the third to do so on the road (joining Russell Wilson and Mark Sanchez). Daniels has now led five fourth-quarter comebacks this season, tying the rookie QB record set by Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger.
The legend of Daniels continues to grow, as he had 268 passing yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 36 rushing yards (including a game-sealing first down).
The Chiefs sat most of their starters in Week 18 against the Broncos, as they had already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Kansas City has consistently found a way to win games this season, even if it hasn't always been pretty.
So, why are the 15-win, back-to-back defending champions sitting at No. 6 in these rankings? Well, PFN's model isn't particularly high on the Chiefs due to their weak schedule and mediocre metrics. They don't rank top-10 offensively or defensively in PFN's model.
Their postseason experience makes them scary as they pursue the first three-peat in NFL history, but it also wouldn't be a huge surprise if they are upset earlier than expected.
After last year's surprising first-round exit, the Eagles had a much better showing on Wild Card Weekend this time around, earning a convincing 22-10 win over the Packers.
The NFC's No. 2 seed had a +4 turnover margin against Green Bay, picking off Jordan Love three times and recovering a fumble.
Philadelphia had the second-ranked defense in the NFL this season in PFN's Defense+ metric, and they held the Packers to 10 points -- the fewest points Green Bay scored in a game this season.
Jalen Hurts threw two touchdown passes (to Dallas Goedert and Jahan Dotson), Saquon Barkley rushed for 119 yards, and A.J. Brown read a few chapters of his book.
Entering the season, sportsbooks had the Vikings' over/under set at 6.5 wins, so their 14 wins exceeded all expectations. While they had a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a road win over the Lions in Week 18, they came up short and fell to No. 5.
Still, Minnesota is the biggest surprise of the 2024 season, and Sam Darnold looks poised for a lucrative payday when he hits free agency this offseason.
The big question is whether it'll be Minnesota (who drafted J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft) or another team paying him.
Josh Allen and the Bills did whatever they wanted in their 31-7 win over the Broncos on Sunday. Allen completed 20 of 26 passes for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while also rushing for 46 yards.
Allen now has five career playoff games with two passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, and at least a 70% completion percentage -- the same total Tom Brady had in his entire postseason career. Only Patrick Mahomes (seven) and Steve Young (six) have more such games in NFL history.
The Bills became the first offense in NFL history to have 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a single season, and they will be a tough out in the playoffs.
The Ravens didn't just beat the Steelers in Saturday's Wild Card showdown -- they humiliated their AFC North rival in the 28-14 victory.
Derrick Henry rushed for 186 yards, the third-most rushing yards in a player’s postseason debut with a team behind only Miami's Lamar Smith (209) and Green Bay's Ryan Grant (201). Baltimore outrushed the Steelers 299-29; this +270-yard difference is the third-largest in NFL playoff history.
The Ravens outgained the Steelers 308-59 in the first half, which marked the fourth-largest yardage differential in a playoff game since 2000. In addition to boasting the second-best offense in PFN's Offense+ metric, Baltimore's defense has also been playing really well. The Ravens have won five straight and they are playing their best football at the perfect time.
The Lions beat the Vikings 31-9 in Week 18 to clinch the No. 1 seed and the NFC North. This earned Detroit a first-round bye, so they watched Wild Card Weekend from home.
Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible in the win over Minnesota, scoring four touchdowns (three rushing and one receiving) and totaling 170 yards (139 rushing and 31 receiving). Gibbs finished the season with 20 scores, leading the NFL and breaking Detroit's franchise record.
PFN's Playoff Predictor is a big fan of the Lions, ranking Detroit as the best offense and fifth-best defense in the league while giving them a 29.2% chance to win the Super Bowl -- double the odds of the next-highest team.
With David Montgomery expected to return next week and Aidan Hutchinson potentially returning later in the postseason, Detroit is in great shape.
Here is where the Divisional Round sits ahead of the Monday Night Football game between the Rams and Vikings. The winner of that game will play the Eagles.
