The NFL playoffs are underway, with eight teams still standing. Entering the Divisional Round, where does each team stand in our NFL Playoff Power Rankings?
To limit subjectivity from our power rankings, we have devised our PR+ metric, which combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, our special teams ranking, and a level of correction for the teams’ strength of schedule and win-loss record among other things. We also take injuries and other factors surrounding teams into account.
Let’s examine which teams have the best shot at advancing to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.
1) Detroit Lions
- Offense+ Rank: 1
- Defense+ Rank: 5
- Special Teams+ Rank: 7
- SOS Rank: 7
- Odds of Winning Super Bowl: 29.2%
The Lions beat the Vikings 31-9 in Week 18 to clinch the No. 1 seed and the NFC North. This earned Detroit a first-round bye, so they watched Wild Card Weekend from home.
Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible in the win over Minnesota, scoring four touchdowns (three rushing and one receiving) and totaling 170 yards (139 rushing and 31 receiving). Gibbs finished the season with 20 scores, leading the NFL and breaking Detroit’s franchise record.
PFN’s Playoff Predictor is a big fan of the Lions, ranking Detroit as the best offense and fifth-best defense in the league while giving them a 29.2% chance to win the Super Bowl — double the odds of the next-highest team.
With David Montgomery expected to return next week and Aidan Hutchinson potentially returning later in the postseason, Detroit is in great shape.
2) Baltimore Ravens
- Offense+ Rank: 2
- Defense+ Rank: 8
- Special Teams+ Rank: 31
- SOS Rank: 14
The Ravens didn’t just beat the Steelers in Saturday’s Wild Card showdown — they humiliated their AFC North rival in the 28-14 victory.
Derrick Henry rushed for 186 yards, the third-most rushing yards in a player’s postseason debut with a team behind only Miami’s Lamar Smith (209) and Green Bay’s Ryan Grant (201). Baltimore outrushed the Steelers 299-29; this +270-yard difference is the third-largest in NFL playoff history.
The Ravens outgained the Steelers 308-59 in the first half, which marked the fourth-largest yardage differential in a playoff game since 2000. In addition to boasting the second-best offense in PFN’s Offense+ metric, Baltimore’s defense has also been playing really well. The Ravens have won five straight and they are playing their best football at the perfect time.
3) Buffalo Bills
- Offense+ Rank: 4
- Defense+ Rank: 18
- Special Teams+ Rank: 21
- SOS Rank: 27
Josh Allen and the Bills did whatever they wanted in their 31-7 win over the Broncos on Sunday. Allen completed 20 of 26 passes for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while also rushing for 46 yards.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket: Divisional Schedule, AFC/NFC Seeds, and Matchups
Allen now has five career playoff games with two passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, and at least a 70% completion percentage — the same total Tom Brady had in his entire postseason career. Only Patrick Mahomes (seven) and Steve Young (six) have more such games in NFL history.
The Bills became the first offense in NFL history to have 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a single season, and they will be a tough out in the playoffs.
4) Philadelphia Eagles
- Offense+ Rank: 14
- Defense+ Rank: 2
- Special Teams+ Rank: 29
- SOS Rank: 31
After last year’s surprising first-round exit, the Eagles had a much better showing on Wild Card Weekend this time around, earning a convincing 22-10 win over the Packers.
The NFC’s No. 2 seed had a +4 turnover margin against Green Bay, picking off Jordan Love three times and recovering a fumble.
Philadelphia had the second-ranked defense in the NFL this season in PFN’s Defense+ metric, and they held the Packers to 10 points — the fewest points Green Bay scored in a game this season.
Jalen Hurts threw two touchdown passes (to Dallas Goedert and Jahan Dotson), Saquon Barkley rushed for 119 yards, and A.J. Brown read a few chapters of his book.
5) Kansas City Chiefs
- Offense+ Rank: 12
- Defense+ Rank: 14
- Special Teams+ Rank: 19
- SOS Rank: 26
The Chiefs sat most of their starters in Week 18 against the Broncos, as they had already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Kansas City has consistently found a way to win games this season, even if it hasn’t always been pretty.
So, why are the 15-win, back-to-back defending champions sitting at No. 5 in these rankings? Well, PFN’s model isn’t particularly high on the Chiefs due to their weak schedule and mediocre metrics. They don’t rank top-10 offensively or defensively in PFN’s model.
Their postseason experience makes them scary as they pursue the first three-peat in NFL history, but it also wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they are upset earlier than expected.
6) Los Angeles Rams
- Offense+ Rank: 11
- Defense+ Rank: 24
- Special Teams+ Rank: 24
- SOS Rank: 4
The Rams dominated the Vikings on both sides of the ball on Monday night.
Los Angeles finished with nine sacks, tying the NFL playoff record held by five other teams, most recently the Titans in the 2021 playoffs vs. the Bengals.
Jared Verse’s fumble return touchdown was the fifth non-offensive touchdown that the Rams have scored this season (including the playoffs), tied with the Seahawks and Broncos for the most of any team.
Los Angeles has been extremely inconsistent on both sides of the ball this season, but the best version of the Rams can compete with any team.
7) Washington Commanders
- Offense+ Rank: 6
- Defense+ Rank: 17
- Special Teams+ Rank: 10
- SOS Rank: 32
Jayden Daniels and Co. went into Raymond James Stadium and pulled off the 23-20 upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, giving Washington its first postseason win since 2005. Washington joins last year’s Texans as the only teams in NFL history to win a playoff game the same year they drafted a quarterback top-two overall.
The Commanders once again thrived in a clutch situation, marching down the field in the final minutes to kick a game-winning, doinked field goal.
Daniels became the sixth rookie QB in NFL history to lead a fourth-quarter comeback in the postseason and just the third to do so on the road (joining Russell Wilson and Mark Sanchez). Daniels has now led five fourth-quarter comebacks this season, tying the rookie QB record set by Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger.
The legend of Daniels continues to grow, as he had 268 passing yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 36 rushing yards (including a game-sealing first down).
8) Houston Texans
- Offense+ Rank: 28
- Defense+ Rank: 7
- Special Teams+ Rank: 15
- SOS Rank: 20
PFN’s model wasn’t high on the Texans entering the playoffs, as they dropped six of their final 11 games (including embarrassing losses to the Titans and Jets), ranked 28th in PFN’s Offense+ metric, and were missing a number of key players.
However, Houston defeated the Chargers 32-12. Nico Collins had 122 receiving yards, which is the most by a Texans player in a postseason game (topping DeAndre Hopkins’ previous record of 118 receiving yards).
Houston picked off Justin Herbert four times (including a pick) after he threw just three interceptions on 504 pass attempts during the regular season.
Herbert became only the second quarterback since 2000 to at least match his season total in a single postseason game since 2000, joining Tom Brady (two interceptions vs. the Texans in 2016). This was Herbert’s first pick-six since Week 2 of the 2022 season.
