The 2022 NFL playoff picture is extremely cloudy at the moment. While a few elite teams have risen above the rest through eight weeks, the majority of the league is mired in mediocrity.
With that in mind, let’s walk through the 14 teams who would comprise the postseason field if the campaign ended today. Which of these clubs are true contenders who can make a deep playoff run? And which are pretenders whose success won’t hold up down the stretch?
NFL Playoffs: AFC | Pretender or Contender?
1. Buffalo Bills | Contender
The Bills are good at everything. Josh Allen is the NFL MVP through eight weeks, and Buffalo ranks in the top five of both offensive and defensive efficiency. At this point, it would be a surprise if the AFC Championship Game isn’t played in western New York, and FiveThirtyEight gives the Bills a 27% chance of winning the Super Bowl, the best odds in the league.
Buffalo continued its quest to land a pass-catching running back by acquiring Nyheim Hines from the Colts at the trade deadline. Allen has been willing to take what the defense is giving him instead of always forcing it downfield, and Hines will provide him with a legitimate weapon in the checkdown game.
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The Bills’ most significant reinforcement will come on the defensive side of the ball, and it’s internal. Buffalo activated cornerback Tre’Davious White from the physically unable to perform list on Tuesday, and he could play in Week 9. Just when we thought the Bills’ roster couldn’t get any better, they’re adding a top-10 CB to the mix.
2. Tennessee Titans | Pretender
Doubting the Titans always comes with risk. Last season, Tennessee miraculously won the AFC’s No. 1 seed over the Bills and Chiefs.
This year, everyone wrote them off following their offseason trade of A.J. Brown. At various times, the Colts and Jaguars have been viewed as AFC South favorites. Yet, the Titans now sit at 5-2 after reeling off five straight wins. They hold a 2.5-game lead over Indy, and they’ve beaten the Colts twice head-to-head.
Tennessee’s defense is always impressive, but their offense is tied for fifth-worst in yards per play. While Derrick Henry is a bulldozer and is capable of singlehandedly winning games (as he did against the Texans in Week 8), the Titans don’t have any threats in the passing game, especially with first-round pick Trelyon Burks on injured reserve.
Mike Vrabel is an excellent head coach. The Titans will almost assuredly get to the playoffs, and they could win a postseason game. But it isn’t easy to imagine them competing with the cream of the crop in the AFC.
3. Kansas City Chiefs | Contender
As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, the Chiefs will be contenders. Mahomes seems destined to battle Allen for MVP awards for the next decade, and Kansas City and Buffalo will likely meet in several AFC title games.
That the Chiefs have been able to keep up their incredible levels of offensive production even after trading Tyreek Hill is nothing short of astonishing. Their pass-catching corps has morphed into a “sum of its parts” receiving group, with Travis Kelce supplemented by JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman.
Kansas City also picked up former first-rounder Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the deadline, and they’re still rumored to be in the market for Odell Beckham Jr. The same offense that just put up 44 points on the 49ers’ defense hasn’t stopped adding pieces, and that should terrify the Chiefs’ upcoming opponents.
4. Baltimore Ravens | Contender
The Ravens won at least 10 games and made the playoffs in every season from 2018-20, but they never advanced past the Divisional Round. This year, Baltimore can make a case for being the third-best team in the AFC. But do they have what it takes to get past the Bills or Chiefs?
On offense, it’s essentially been the Lamar Jackson Show. He’s fifth in the league in QBR, and he’s one of the league’s most efficient runners when he takes off. But Lamar still doesn’t have enough weapons. Mark Andrews has been boom-or-bust as defenses focus on stopping him, while Rashod Bateman is sidelined indefinitely.
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense has gotten gashed at times. They’re in the bottom quartile in terms of efficiency against both the run and the pass. The Ravens are allowing offenses to score on 40.5% of their drives (seventh-worst), and they’re overly reliant on turnovers.
5. New York Jets | Pretender
Jets general manager Joe Douglas has done a wonderful job remaking his club’s roster. Strong drafts have given New York young talent at key positions, and solid free agent moves have supplemented that youthful core.
But it all comes down to the quarterback. No matter how well the Jets’ defense is playing, does anyone really think Zach Wilson can win a playoff game?
New York clearly doesn’t believe in Wilson. After allowing Joe Flacco to shatter pass attempt records over the first three games of the season, Gang Green has limited Wilson’s involvement in the offense. He’s been asked to throw 30+ passes in two of his five starts — he threw multiple interceptions in both outings.
New York’s defense has allowed just 15.6 points per game over the last five weeks, but their schedule is about to get much more difficult. In fact, the Jets will face the NFL’s hardest schedule to close the season, per Football Outsiders.
6. Miami Dolphins | Contender
We mentioned that the Ravens could make a case to be the AFC’s third-best team, but the Dolphins probably have an even better argument.
They’ve won every game that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished. Tua leads the league in nearly every quarterback metric. If he had more games and attempts under his belt, he’d be in the discussion for MVP.
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Tyreek Hill, 2022’s best offseason acquisition, is on pace to break the single-season receiving record, and Jaylen Waddle is the NFL’s best No. 2 receiver. Miami’s defense has been up and down, but they just added edge rusher Bradley Chubb at the deadline.
The Dolphins are unlikely to overtake the Bills in the AFC East, meaning they’ll be forced to go on the road in the playoffs. Still, they remain the only team to defeat Buffalo this season.
7. Los Angeles Chargers | Contender
The Chargers have been hit hard by injuries, looked lackluster on offense, and struggled to stop anyone on defense. And yet, if the season ended today, they’d be in the playoffs as the AFC’s seventh seed.
If some of their key players return soon, Los Angeles could look like a different team by the time the postseason rolls around. JC Jackson is done for the year, but Joey Bosa and Mike Williams should be back by December, and Rashawn Slater could return if the Chargers make the playoffs.
With that re-addition of talent potentially on the horizon, the Chargers remain a contender. But if Bosa, Williams, or Keenan Allen suffer setbacks, L.A. could just as easily miss the postseason altogether. Justin Herbert is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL, but he can’t do it alone.
NFL Playoffs: NFC | Pretender or Contender?
1. Philadelphia Eagles | Contender
The NFL’s only remaining undefeated team, the Eagles are shoo-ins for the playoffs — and they have a legitimate chance to go undefeated. Philadelphia has the easiest schedule in the league going forward, according to Football Outsiders. While they’ll likely slip up at some point, the possibility of a 17-0 record is on the table.
It’s truly been a team effort for the Eagles. General manager Howie Roseman had the foresight to draft Jalen Hurts with Carson Wentz still on the roster, and he’s since augmented his club with smart free agent signings and trades.
Philadelphia’s coaching staff has altered game plans on the fly, and Hurts himself has displayed promising development over his first year-plus as a starter. The Eagles have set themselves up to not only contend in 2022, but to compete for championships year in and year out.
2. Minnesota Vikings | Contender
The Vikings blew out the Packers in Week 1 and got blown out by the Eagles in Week 2. Aside from those two games, all other Minnesota contests — all victories — have been one-score affairs.
It feels like regression will hit the Vikings at some point, but they’ve already banked six wins. Even if they only go 6-4 over the rest of the season, Minnesota will finish with a 12-5 record and post their best winning percentage since 2017.
They’ll face tests against the Bills and Cowboys in Weeks 10 and 11, but the Vikings should be favored in the rest of their games. They hold a three-game lead (and tiebreakers) over the Packers and Bears, so they’ve essentially already won the NFC North.
It’s difficult to imagine a Kirk Cousins-led team getting past the Eagles or the best teams in the AFC, but the bar in the NFC is relatively low. Given the success the Vikings have already posted, it’s impossible to say they’re not capable of at least reaching the NFC Championship Game.
3. Seattle Seahawks | Contender
The Seahawks were the most difficult team to sort into the “contender” or “pretender” buckets. It’s not easy to adjust priors, and most observers believed Seattle would be one of the NFL’s worst teams in 2022.
But Geno Smith is improbably playing like a second-tier MVP candidate. Buoyed by receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and rookie running back Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks are second in the league in scoring and seventh in offensive DVOA.
Can they keep this up? Maybe. Seattle is very reliant on explosive touchdowns. Through eight weeks, they’ve scored 12 times on plays of 20 yards or longer. That leads the NFL, and the average team has scored just 4.1 TDs of 20+ yards.
The Seahawks have been dynamite on long plays, but they’ve struggled inside the 20-yard line. They’ve scored a touchdown on just 40% of their red-zone trips, second-worst in the NFL behind the Broncos.
If opposing defenses adjust to limit Seattle’s big plays or Metcalf or Lockett suffers a serious injury, the Seahawks could be in trouble. Still, they should be in line for positive regression when it comes to scoring inside the red area.
4. Atlanta Falcons | Pretender
The Falcons pulled off a miraculous victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 and currently sit in first place in the NFC South. Atlanta has an easy schedule to finish things out, so they can keep winning games. If the Buccaneers and Saints continue to struggle, the Falcons could certainly earn a playoff appearance.
But it’s hard to label a team that attempts only 22.3 passes per game a contender. Marcus Mariota has been pretty efficient when called upon to throw, but nearly all of Atlanta’s games have been close. When the Falcons find themselves facing a multi-score deficit (as they did against the Bengals in Week 7), it’s nearly impossible for them to launch a comeback effort.
Atlanta was always building toward 2023, and that much hasn’t changed. Arthur Smith has built an offense that’s just waiting for a franchise quarterback. Anything the Falcons achieve this season is merely gravy.
5. Dallas Cowboys | Contender
Not only are the Cowboys contenders, but they can make a case as the second-best team in the NFC and the fourth-best team in the NFL.
Dallas’s elite defense held things together while Dak Prescott was sidelined by injury. The Cowboys went 4-1 with Cooper Rush under center, with their only loss coming to the Eagles. Micah Parsons is on track to win Defensive Player of the Year, and there hasn’t been a more impressive coordinator than Dan Quinn in 2022.
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The Cowboys were 18th in offensive EPA per play through Week 6, but since Dak’s return, they’re up to third, behind only Kansas City and Philadelphia. Tony Pollard proved last week what we already knew — he’s far more explosive than Ezekiel Elliott, and hopefully, Dallas’ coaches (and ownership) will start to see it that way.
6. New York Giants | Pretender
The Giants are very much in line with the Titans and Falcons. They do the little things right, win in their own way, and manage to keep achieving victories.
Brian Daboll has New York at 6-2 and in line for a playoff appearance, a statement that would have seemed absurd a few months ago. Daniel Jones has turned into a battering ram on the ground. He’s posted the third-most rushing yards of any quarterback, and he’s much calmer in the pocket than in seasons past.
Big Blue didn’t add any pieces at the deadline, and that’s okay. Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen know they’re in this for the long haul, and they’re also likely aware the Giants are playing above their weight. New York can continue to make noise throughout the season, but they aren’t Super Bowl contenders.
7. San Francisco 49ers | Contender
Jimmy Garoppolo nearly won the Super Bowl three seasons ago, and he should have the chance to make another run this year.
George Kittle was outstanding during that 2019 campaign, but Deebo Samuel hadn’t become the WR1 he is today. Brandon Aiyuk was still in college, and Christian McCaffrey was still on the Panthers. Suffice it to say far more talented skill-position players now surround Garoppolo.
Putting aside the wisdom of trading exorbitant draft capital for a running back, McCaffrey could take San Francisco’s offense to another level over the rest of the season. Add in their top-tier defense led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, and the 49ers stand out as a team that could take down the Eagles.