Week 10 saw plenty of things shake up regarding the NFL playoff picture. Two games involving AFC East teams on the road against NFC West teams were a big part of the reason for the changes this weekend, but there were also intriguing swings based on a blocked kick and an exciting finish in Washington.
Let’s examine the biggest NFL playoff winners and losers from Week 10 and what this means for their playoff chances going forward. All numbers quoted in this article are based on simulations of the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor. After every window of games or major injuries, we simulate the predictor 10,000 times to generate our playoff probabilities and percentages.
Winner: Miami Dolphins (+14.6%)
Let’s start with the Monday Night Football game and the Miami Dolphins, who defeated the Los Angeles Rams for their first victory in over a month.
Miami has been a tough team to get a read on because their performances have been all over the place this year. They’ve been heavily impacted by injuries, on both offense and defense, for the past two months.
Yet, the Dolphins’ performance in Week 10 was as close to complete as we’ve seen all season. But there is still plenty of room for improvement.
Currently sitting at 3-6, the Dolphins head into Week 11 with just under a 25% chance of making the postseason. They were helped this week by losses for the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, and Denver Broncos.
According to the PFN Playoff Predictor, here are the Dolphins' win percentages for the next five games, including tonight against the Rams.
Of note, they have a 69% win percentage against the Patriots.
Can they make a run for the playoffs? 👀 pic.twitter.com/A5jvJ1ZQxo
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 12, 2024
Miami is now just 1.5 games back on the No. 7 seed Broncos, with a couple of winnable games in the next two weeks (vs. Las Vegas Raiders, vs. New England Patriots). The Dolphins’ remaining schedule ranks sixth-easiest, with five very winnable games and three tougher matchups in that span.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals (+28.9%)
The Arizona Cardinals were the biggest winners this week in terms of improving their playoff chances, but they were also winners on the field, with another comprehensive performance in beating the Jets. The Cardinals climbed significantly in our PR+ rankings, moving inside the top 10 and setting themselves up nicely for the rest of the season.
Arizona’s chances of winning the NFC West also increased by 27.5 percentage points. In 62.4% of our simulations, Arizona is projected to win the division and still has a 4.4% chance of clinching the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
The Cardinals’ ninth-easiest remaining schedule, while the San Francisco 49ers’ second-hardest remaining schedule, is a big reason for their boosted divisional odds after Week 10.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (+12.3%)
It was a good day for the Philadelphia Eagles, who saw the Washington Commanders lose at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers before handling their business on the road in Dallas. The Eagles’ overall playoff odds rose 12.3 percentage points, but their biggest change was an increase of 30.6 percentage points to win the division.
Philadelphia entered the week with a 25% chance of winning the division. Washington was the more highly rated team and had the edge in the majority of simulations. However, the two teams came out of the week fairly evenly matched, leaving the division hanging in the balance, with the two sides set to face each other on Thursday Night Football.
Both the Eagles and Commanders have fairly easy schedules the rest of the way, so their matchups in Weeks 11 and 16 could be crucial. With that said, Philadelphia still has to travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens and host the Steelers, while the Commanders’ toughest remaining games are the ones with the Eagles.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers (+12.4%)
The Los Angeles Chargers handled their business nicely with a 27-17 victory over the Tennessee Titans. As with all their other wins this year, it wasn’t flashy or spectacular, but it was a job well done. Meanwhile, all their nearest challengers for one of the last two Wild Card spots fell away.
Entering the week at 5-3, there were three teams within one game of the Chargers in the win column (Broncos, Colts, and Bengals). All three of those teams lost, and there is now a 2.5-game cushion between the Chargers and the No. 8 seed Colts.
Los Angeles may need that cushion because they have games coming up against the Bengals, Ravens, Atlanta Falcons, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Broncos. That is a tough run of games that could see Los Angeles go anywhere between 0-6 to 6-0 without causing too many surprises.
The PFN NFL Playoff Predictor currently gives the Chargers an 82.5% chance of making the playoffs, with games to close out the season against the Patriots and Raiders giving them a late-season boost.
Loser: Los Angeles Rams (-26.7%)
It was a bad weekend for a Rams team that had clawed its way back into the NFL playoff picture in recent weeks. Despite having both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Los Angeles’ offense looked relatively toothless as they struggled to protect Matthew Stafford and give running room for Kyren Williams. That is especially concerning after the way the Cardinals dominated in their game on Sunday.
The Rams saw their playoff chances drop 26.7 percentage points and their divisional chances drop 22.7 percentage points. With the NFC Wild Card spots occupied by three teams with 6+ wins, LA’s best path to the playoffs was by winning the division. They are now 1.5 games back from Arizona in first place in the division and also a game behind San Francisco in second.
Things have been tough for the Rams this season. They have dealt with a number of injuries while playing the fourth-hardest schedule to date. They then have the 10th-hardest remaining schedule, which is significantly harder than the Cardinals face.
Los Angeles still has to face the Eagles, Buffalo Bills, 49ers, and Cardinals this season. They also have to travel on the road to the Patriots and Jets, which are tough trips for a dome team this late in the season.
Loser: New York Jets (-26.5%)
The Jets continue to be all over the place with their performances. Their victory over the Houston Texans in Week 9 was promising, but they looked a shadow of that team in Arizona, despite 10 days rest.
At 3-7, New York’s margin for error is almost completely gone. Not helping their cause is the continuously improving Dolphins, who they have to face twice in the final five weeks.
The saving grace for the Jets coming out of Week 10 is that they are still within two games of the seventh seed after all of the teams above them entering the week lost. This week’s matchup with the Colts appears to be a de facto elimination game, at least for the Jets. Slipping to 3-8 with two games remaining against Miami and one against Buffalo would be a lot to do in the final six games.
Loser: Washington Commanders (-9.3%)
We very well could see the Commanders’ playoff chances featured heavily in this article over the coming weeks. With Washington and Philadelphia locked together in a tight race for the NFC East, every game is crucial, and none more so than the upcoming Thursday Night Football game.
The Commanders saw their playoff chances drop 9.3 percentage points, but the bigger swing was their divisional chances dropping 30.4 percentage points. Based on our simulations, Washington still has an 84.6% chance of making the playoffs, but the division now essentially hangs in the balance (Commanders are 45.9%, Eagles are 54.1%).
The two sides are fairly even and very well could split their two games with each other. The Commanders do have a slightly easier schedule, but the Eagles grade out as the slightly better team. There could be plenty of twists and turns left in the race for the NFC East.
Loser: Atlanta Falcons (-7.7%)
The Falcons may look back at Week 10 as the day it all fell apart for them. The opportunity was there for Atlanta to open a huge lead at the top of the NFC South, but the loss to the New Orleans Saints has halted that idea.
As things stand, the Falcons have a two-game lead over the Buccaneers and the cushion of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Essentially, to lose the division title, Atlanta has to lose three more games than Tampa Bay over the final seven games.
The problem for the Falcons is that it really should have been further comfort with a three-game cushion. Our simulations had the Falcons emerging victorious over the Saints roughly 70% of the time. Therefore, their loss has knocked their playoff chances back 7. 7 percentage points, with their division chances back 6.6 percentage points.
Really, the swing is more like double digits for both, as an Atlanta win would have given them a greater than 65% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division.
The reason that the Falcons’ chances for the division are not bigger despite the cushion is that the Buccaneers have seven very winnable games after their Week 11 bye, and they should get Mike Evans back. Meanwhile, Atlanta has games with the Broncos, Vikings, and Commanders, as well as a matchup with the Chargers — four games they could lose, which could be enough to swing the division back to Tampa Bay.
The data behind these statistics is courtesy of TruMedia.