Week 18 will see the final five playoff berths claimed and the final four division titles locked up. In total, there are 17 teams with a scenario for clinching a playoff spot of some kind, be that a postseason berth, a division title, or a seeding resolution. Let’s take a look at the full Week 18 NFL playoff scenarios.
Week 18 Playoff Scenarios Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 6 and 9 a.m. before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day. Scenarios in bold remain in play, while scenarios in normal font are no longer applicable. Clinched scenarios are in bold and italic font.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (10-7) defeated Ravens (13-4)
Texans (10-7) defeated Colts (9-8)
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (9-8) defeated Panthers (2-15)
Saints (9-8) defeated Falcons (7-10)
Titans (6-11) defeated Jaguars (9-8)
Lions (12-5) defeated Vikings (7-10)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Cowboys (12-5) defeated Commanders (4-13)
Packers (9-8) defeated Bears (7-10)
Rams (10-7) defeated 49ers (12-5)
Sunday Night Football Update
Bills (11-6) defeated Dolphins (11-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Week 18 NFL Playoff Scenarios?
Atlanta Falcons Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Atlanta Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Atlanta Falcons are in an all-or-nothing situation when it comes to the postseason. They can either win the NFC South or miss out on the postseason.
The Falcons can, therefore, only finish as the fourth seed if they make the playoffs, meaning they would host either the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles.
Atlanta clinches the NFC South division title with:
- Atlanta win + Tampa Bay loss
Buffalo Bills Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East and will be the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
The Buffalo Bills have a wide range of outcomes where they could be the No. 2, 6, or 7 seed in the AFC.
If they win this week, Buffalo will win the AFC East and finish as the No. 2 seed. But if they lose or tie, then it becomes about whether they make the postseason or end up as the sixth or seventh seed.
Buffalo clinches the AFC East division title with:
- Buffalo win
Buffalo clinches a playoff berth with:
- Buffalo tie OR
- Pittsburgh loss/tie OR
- Jacksonville loss/tie OR
- Indianapolis tie
If the Bills tie with the Miami Dolphins, they’re assured of being the sixth seed. With a loss, they could be the sixth or seventh seed, or miss the playoffs entirely.
To be the No. 6 seed with a loss, the Bills would need the Pittsburgh Steelers to fail to win, and either the Jacksonville Jaguars fail to win, or the Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts game ends in a tie.
Dallas Cowboys Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Dallas Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and are the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
After a wild few weeks, the Cowboys enter Week 18 in control of their own destiny when it comes to the NFC East. Dallas could end the regular season as either the second, third, or fifth seed depending on their result and the results of the Detroit Lions and Eagles games.
Dallas clinches the NFC East division title with:
- Dallas win OR
- Philadelphia loss OR
- Dallas tie + Eagles tie
A Cowboys win would see them finish as the No. 2 seed while failing to match or better Philadelphia’s result would see them finish fifth. Dallas would finish as the No. 3 seed if they matched the Eagles’ result but failed to match that of the Lions.
Detroit Lions Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Lions are the No. 3 seed in the NFC.
The Lions are guaranteed to win the NFC North but could finish as either the No. 2 or 3 seed in the NFC. If Detroit betters the result of both the Cowboys and Eagles, they will be the 2 seed. But if either team matches their result, the Lions will be the third seed.
Green Bay Packers Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Packers have clinched a Wild Card spot in the NFC.
The Green Bay Packers enter Week 18 in the seventh spot in the NFC standings. They largely control their own destiny in terms of making the postseason.
MORE: Can the Packers Make Some Noise If They Make the Postseason?
Green Bay could end the week as either the sixth or seventh seed or out of the postseason altogether. The Packers will clinch a playoff berth in the following scenarios:
- Green Bay win OR
- Green Bay tie + Seattle loss/tie + New Orleans loss/tie OR
- Green Bay tie + Seattle tie + Tampa Bay loss/tie OR
- Green Bay tie + Seattle loss + Tampa Bay loss OR
- Green Bay loss + Seattle loss + Tampa Bay loss + Minnesota loss/tie OR
- Green Bay loss + Seattle loss + New Orleans loss + Minnesota loss/tie
The Packers will finish as the sixth seed if they win and the Los Angeles Rams lose. Any other combination of results that see them make the postseason would result in them as the No. 7 seed.
Houston Texans Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Texans are the AFC South champions and will host the Cleveland Browns in Wild Card Weekend.
The Houston Texans could end the week as either the NFC South champions, in a Wild Card spot, or out of the postseason entirely.
Houston Texans clinch the AFC South division title with:
- Houston win + Jacksonville loss/tie
Houston clinches a playoff berth with:
- Houston win OR
- Houston tie + Jacksonville loss + Pittsburgh loss/tie
If they win the AFC South, the Texans will host the Cleveland Browns on Wild Card Weekend. The Texans can finish as the sixth seed if they win, the Jaguars win, and the Bills lose, meaning they would face the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead.
Any other combination of results where they clinch a Wild Card spot would see Houston as the seventh seed.
Indianapolis Colts Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Colts have been eliminated from playoff contention following their loss to the Texans on Saturday night.
Much like the Texans, the Colts could finish fourth, sixth, or seventh. To finish as the No. 4 seed, Indianapolis would have to clinch the AFC South. In order to finish sixth, they would need to win and see both the Jaguars win and the Bills lose.
Indianapolis clinches the AFC South division title with:
- Indianapolis win + Jacksonville loss/tie OR
- Indianapolis tie + Jacksonville loss
Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth with:
- Indianapolis win OR
- Indianapolis tie + Pittsburgh loss/tie
Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Jaguars have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Jaguars control their own destiny when it comes to the AFC South and the fourth seed. A win would see Jacksonville hosting Cleveland at TIAA Bank Field on Wild Card Weekend.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
However, the Jaguars could also clinch the division with a tie if the Texans-Colts game ends in a tie. Jacksonville also has scenarios that could see them reach the Wild Card as the No. 7 seed.
Jacksonville clinches the AFC South division title with:
- Jacksonville win OR
- Jacksonville tie + Indianapolis tie
Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth with:
- Jacksonville tie + Pittsburgh loss/tie OR
- Pittsburgh loss + Denver loss/tie + Houston loss OR
- Pittsburgh loss + Denver loss/tie + Indianapolis loss
Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios
The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot and are guaranteed at least to finish as the sixth seed. If they win, they’re the two seed, with the chance to host at least two playoff games. A loss would see them as the sixth seed, facing Kansas City in Arrowhead.
Miami clinches the AFC East division title with:
- Miami win/tie
Minnesota Vikings Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Vikings have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Minnesota Vikings have a very slim chance of playing in the postseason. For it to happen, they need to win and have three other results go their way.
There are two potential scenarios for the Vikings to make the playoffs. Both of them would result in them as the seventh seed in the NFC.
- Minnesota win + Seattle loss + Green Bay loss + Tampa Bay loss OR
- Minnesota win + Seattle loss + Green Bay loss + New Orleans loss OR
New Orleans Saints Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The New Orleans Saints could either wind up winning the NFC South or reach the postseason as a Wild Card team. The Saints will finish as either the fourth or seventh seed if they make the playoffs.
New Orleans clinches the NFC South division title with:
- New Orleans win + Tampa Bay loss/tie OR
- New Orleans tie + Tampa Bay loss
New Orleans clinches a playoff berth and the No. 7 seed with:
- New Orleans win + Green Bay loss/tie + Seattle loss/tie OR
- New Orleans tie + Green Bay loss + Seattle loss
Philadelphia Eagles Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Eagles are the No. 5 seed in the NFC.
The Eagles have the same range of outcomes as the Cowboys in that they could finish as the NFC’s second, third, or fifth seed.
The Eagles would clinch NFC East division title with:
- Philadelphia win + Dallas loss/tie OR
- Philadelphia tie + Dallas loss
Philadelphia would finish as the No. 2 seed with a win and Dallas fails to win. Yet, they would finish as the fifth seed if they cannot better the Cowboys’ result. If the Eagles tie, the Cowboys lose, and the Lions win, Philadelphia would finish as the No. 3 seed in the NFC.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Steelers have clinched a playoff spot thanks to the Jaguars loss to the Titans. They will be the No. 7 seed in the AFC.
Pittsburgh will get the first chance to stake a claim for a Wild Card spot this weekend. Even with a win, though, they need other results to go their way across the remainder of the weekend.
MORE: Mike Tomlin Hits New NFL Milestone in Crucial Steelers Win
If they win, the Steelers need at least one other result to go their way, while a tie would mean they need two results to fall their way. Intriguingly, despite a win not being enough to guarantee Pittsburgh a playoff spot, they could actually make the playoffs with a loss.
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with:
- Pittsburgh win + Buffalo loss OR
- Pittsburgh win + Jacksonville loss/tie OR
- Pittsburgh win + Indianapolis tie OR
- Pittsburgh tie + Indianapolis loss + Jacksonville loss OR
- Pittsburgh tie + Houston loss + Jacksonville loss OR
- Jacksonville loss + Indianapolis loss + Denver win OR
- Jacksonville loss + Houston loss + Denver win
The Steelers would be the sixth seed if they win, the Bills lose, and either the Jaguars fail to win, or the Texans-Colts game ends in a tie. Any other combination of results would see them finish as the seventh seed or outside the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Seahawks have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Seattle Seahawks do not control their own destiny but can make the playoffs with a win or a tie if other results go their way. The Seahawks can only make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed.
Seattle clinches a playoff berth with:
- Seattle win + Green Bay loss/tie OR
- Seattle tie + Green Bay loss + New Orleans loss/tie OR
- Seattle tie + Green Bay loss + Tampa Bay loss/tie
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Scenarios
Editor’s Note: The Buccaneers have won the NFC South and will host either the Philadelphia Eagles or Dallas Cowboys on Wild Card Weekend.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers control their own destiny when it comes to the NFC South. A win guarantees them the division and hosting either the Cowboys or Eagles in the Wild Card round.
There’s a chance they could win the division with a tie this week. If they do tie, Tampa could also end up as the No. 7 seed. A loss in Week 18 would see the Buccaneers miss out of the playoff picture.
Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South division title with:
- Tampa Bay win OR
- Tampa Bay tie + New Orleans loss/tie
Tampa Bay clinches a playoff berth with:
- Tampa Bay tie + Seattle loss + Green Bay loss/tie
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!