Every week, the NFL playoff picture becomes clearer, with the best and worst teams beginning to separate from the pack. In the middle of that pack, much is left to be answered in the next 11 weeks.
With several unknowns over the remaining part of the season, knowing what the final playoff picture may look like and how different teams may fare is tough. However, PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor can give you a glimpse into the future.
We simulate the season 10,000 times using our insights and metrics to project not just the regular season but also the full playoffs. From there, we have calculated the percentage chance of each team winning their division or making the playoffs as a Wild Card.
This data is refreshed after every game or following any major trades and injuries that could impact the playoff picture.
Let’s examine the projected NFL playoff picture in each conference as of Oct. 25, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Baltimore Ravens
3) Buffalo Bills
4) Houston Texans
5) Pittsburgh Steelers
6) Denver Broncos
7) Los Angeles Chargers
NFC
1) Detroit Lions
2) Washington Commanders
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4) San Francisco 49ers
5) Minnesota Vikings
6) Philadelphia Eagles
7) Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 11.4%
- Win the Division: 8.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.0%
The Arizona Cardinals kept themselves in with an outside chance of a playoff spot with their victory over the Los Angeles Chargers to avoid sliding to 2-5. However, with the way the NFC is shaping up so far this year, the Cardinals still have a lot of work to do.
As things stand, there are nine NFC teams with four wins, yet three teams in the NFC North with five.
Over the past three years, teams at 3-4 have gone on to make the playoffs 29% of the time, but that’s a relatively small sample size. Therefore, Arizona’s chances of being 11.4% seem very low. Additionally, with the NFC North in position to potentially take two of the three Wild Card spots, it leaves just one to fight for.
One thing that does favor the Cardinals is that they are 2-0 within the division, having beaten both the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. Additionally, they have the ninth-easiest schedule across the rest of the season, so it will be intriguing to see whether Arizona can build on two wins in the last three weeks.
Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 40.6%
- Win the Division: 33.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off what appeared to be a rather horrible-looking loss to the Seattle Seahawks, but they remain 4-3 and very much in the playoff hunt. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ injury issues have very much opened up a path for the Falcons to win the division — a spot they are currently in thanks to their Week 5 victory at home.
Atlanta can go a long way toward improving its playoff chances in Week 8. If they can beat the Buccaneers this week, they will have a significant advantage over their rivals with a 2-0 head-to-head tiebreaker against them and a one-game lead in the standings.
Atlanta has one of the easiest remaining schedules, ranking as the sixth-easiest. Yet, Tampa Bay has the easiest, so things are fairly even in that respect. The ease of the schedule is not a huge advantage in the Wild Card race either, with the Eagles having the second-easiest remaining schedule.
Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 99.2%
- Win the Division: 74.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 15.1%
After starting 0-2, the Baltimore Ravens’ playoff chances appeared to be hanging by a thread, but they’ve impressively turned it around. Baltimore has won five games in a row to sit at 5-2 and is in control of its own destiny. They have a two-game lead over eighth place in the Wild Card standings and have two games with the Pittsburgh Steelers, which could decide the division.
The top 10 offenses in the NFL through Week 7, according to the PFN Offense+ Metric ⤵ pic.twitter.com/TSpxjc82dr
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 24, 2024
The Ravens’ remaining schedule is tough, ranking as the 10th-hardest. They get the Cleveland Browns this week before a tough stretch that involves the Denver Broncos, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Steelers.
With the Ravens’ offense profiling as one of the best in the NFL, it’s hard to imagine how they would miss the playoffs from here, but it’s still a long way to go.
Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 97.9%
- Win the Division: 91.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 8.7%
The Buffalo Bills have bounced back nicely after a two-game skid, avoiding a potential banana skin in the New York Jets and then handling the Tennessee Titans with relative ease.
Buffalo now sits at 5-2 with a 2.5-game lead over the Miami Dolphins and a three-game lead over the Jets. With the Bills already having head-to-head wins over both, they’re sitting in a very comfortable position.
The biggest concern for the Bills is that they have lost both games they have played against opponents who rank in the top 15 of the PFN Power Rankings+ metric. They have beaten every opponent who ranks 16th or lower, though, and many of them with a level of comfort.
The good news is that Buffalo only faces three more teams that rank 15th or above this season. The Bills’ schedule profiles as the eighth-easiest the rest of the way, and two games in the final three weeks against the woeful New England Patriots certainly helps them in their run to the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 0.1%
- Win the Division: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Carolina Panthers are a few weeks away from being mathematically eliminated, but there is little chance they are thinking about the playoffs at this point. Carolina’s only focus for the rest of this season should be on what they need to do to be competitive in 2025 and beyond.
Among the questions Carolina needs to answer include the future of Bryce Young, but he’s certainly not the only roster spot that needs to be figured out. There is every chance that the Panthers will be picking in the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Chicago Bears’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 15.9%
- Win the Division: 1.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
Sitting at 4-2 is a solid result for the Chicago Bears, but their playoff chances actually seem somewhat low based on that. That’s because there’s a huge mitigating factor for the Bears.
So far, Chicago has played the easiest schedule in the league, facing just one team ranked in the top half of the PR+ standings (Houston Texans). In some ways, 4-2 might actually be a slight disappointment based on their schedule.
Two factors compound that disappointment. First, the Bears have the hardest remaining schedule of any NFL team. Second, they’re in a division where 4-2 is only good enough to sit in fourth place. The NFC North is ridiculously tough this year, and it’s hard to imagine all four teams making the playoffs.
The Bears still have to face all three of their division rivals twice, including a contest with the Washington Commanders this week and matchups with the 49ers and Seahawks later in the year. It’s highly possible, though, that Chicago will avoid Jayden Daniels.
Get to 7-2 or 6-3, and the Bears will give themselves some margin of error in the remaining weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 25.3%
- Win the Division: 1.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.1%
At 0-3, things looked bleak for the Cincinnati Bengals. In the three-year history of the 17-game season and 14-team playoffs, no team has recovered from 0-3 to make the playoffs.
Nevertheless, the Bengals are now back at 3-4 after three wins in their last four games. Over the last three years, 29% of teams with a 3-4 start have made the playoffs.
The Bengals’ remaining schedule ranks as the 13th-toughest, and that is Cincinnati’s biggest question mark. They’ve done well in beating the Panthers, New York Giants, and Cleveland Browns, but those are all bottom-seven teams in our PR+. Against better opposition, Cincinnati has lost, and there is plenty of that higher level of opposition in its remaining schedule.
We should get a good idea of the Bengals’ potential this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia is 12th in our PR+, so they’re better than Cincinnati but not a top-10 team.
In the following three weeks, they have games with the Las Vegas Raiders and the Chargers. Even assuming they lose on the road in Baltimore, the Bengals have a chance to be 6-5 entering their bye in Week 12.
Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 0.3%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Browns’ season is as good as over unless Jameis Winston can produce some incredible magic in the coming weeks. A 1-6 team has not recovered to make the playoffs in the last three seasons, and Cleveland could be 1-7 after taking on the Ravens this week.
Adding to the Browns’ misery is that they have the third-hardest schedule the rest of the way, so their chance of pulling off a miracle is slim.
The Browns will likely talk in the right manner about going on a run and pushing for the playoffs until they are mathematically eliminated. However, in the background, the future of the QB position has to be front and center.
Deshaun Watson is out for the rest of the year, but at this point, they should know what he offers. The future should be the focus for Cleveland as opposed to chasing a small playoff chance in 2024.
Dallas Cowboys’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 4.0%
- Win the Division: 0.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
It’s somewhat surprising that a 3-3 team has just a 4% chance of making the playoffs, but the manner of the Dallas Cowboys’ defeats has been startling.
Dallas has essentially been blown out in all three of its losses (with all of them coming at home). The Cowboys made things look respectable against the Ravens, but that game was 28-6 with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter.
History will tell you that the Cowboys more likely have a 40% chance of making the playoffs, but our simulator is not looking at them favorably. Dallas sits 24th in our PR+ and faces the 11th-toughest remaining schedule this season. They have just two games remaining against teams who fall below them in our PR+, with eight against teams ranking in the top half.
Denver Broncos’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 73.2%
- Win the Division: 5.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.2%
The Denver Broncos have leaned heavily on their defense this season, which isn’t likely to change significantly the rest of the way. Bo Nix and the offense should improve as the season goes on, but at best, they’ll be a league-average unit.
Denver’s offensive struggles will raise some eyebrows about its projected 73.2% playoff chances, but that just shows how good the defense has been.
The Broncos face an interesting run into their bye with “easier” looking games against the Panthers, Raiders, and Browns, and then three “tough” games with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Falcons. At worst, Denver will hope to split those 3-3 and get to 7-6. The Broncos then have a couple of winnable games after their bye.
Overall, this schedule ranks as the 18th-toughest in the league across the remaining weeks. It’s very feasible to see a team carried to the playoffs by their defense. The Broncos have done it before, in fact, on their way to Super Bowl 50.
We should get an idea of where they stand when they take on the Ravens and Chiefs and in back-to-back games in Weeks 9 and 10.
Detroit Lions’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 95.1%
- Win the Division: 50.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 23.6%
It has been a very good past 10 days for the Detroit Lions. They obliterated the Cowboys, then beat the Vikings (both on the road) to take over the top spot in the division. Minnesota then lost on Thursday Night Football to the Rams, putting Detroit in pole position for the division.
Still, this division is extremely tight, with all four teams having 4+ wins entering Week 8.
The Lions’ schedule is the fourth-hardest remaining and the third-hardest among teams in their division. The Vikings, despite their recent losses, have the easiest remaining schedule of any NFC North team. The Lions, meanwhile, still have five games within the division, so a lot can change in their remaining 11 games.
It would be a huge surprise to see Detroit not make the playoffs at this stage, but it’s still within the cards, given the NFC North. The Lions can’t afford to overlook teams like the Titans, Jaguars, and Colts because the rest of the schedule all comes against teams in or around the top 10 in our PR+ standings.
Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 68.1%
- Win the Division: 10.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 4.2%
When you consider everything the Green Bay Packers have been through so far this season — including Jordan Love’s injury and a trip to Brazi — they’ve done remarkably well to be 5-2. They now look well-placed in the NFC playoff race, but much still hangs in the balance.
The Packers have only played one game within the division so far — a division that appears to be the toughest in the NFL this year. They still have to face the Lions and Bears twice, as well as the Vikings again in Week 17. Those games will change the look of the NFC North and the Wild Card race.
Things don’t look significantly easier for Green Bay in the coming weeks. Despite getting the low-ranked Jaguars this week, it’s then the Lions, Bears, 49ers, Dolphins, Lions again, and Seahawks in the span of seven weeks.
The Packers’ overall schedule ranks as the second-toughest, meaning their potential range of outcomes remains very wide.
Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 94.9%
- Win the Division: 91.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.2%
Things are looking good for the Texans’ chances of making the playoffs. At 5-2, they have a one-game lead and a head-to-head advantage over the Indianapolis Colts in the division standings.
Houston has the opportunity to cement that this week. If they beat Indianapolis in Week 8, the Texans will have a two-game lead over their division rivals and a head-to-head advantage.
Still, it’s worth noting the Texans’ relatively low Super Bowl-winning percentage here. Their 5-2 record does appear to flatter them slightly, as they sit just 14th in PR+. However, they have also beaten the Bears, the Bills, and nearly the Packers this season. The two wins came at home, and their only two losses came on the road, so the Texans getting a high seed feels very much crucial to their chances of a deep playoff run.
Houston has a solid chance of securing a top-two seed in the AFC this season. Their remaining schedule ranks as just the 20th-hardest, but both the Chiefs and Bills have easier schedules, which could prove crucial.
Indianapolis Colts’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 15.4%
- Win the Division: 5.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
It may seem overly dramatic, but Week 8 could be pivotal for the Colts’ playoff chances in 2024. They have been largely unconvincing in getting to 4-3, but a loss this week could undo all of the positives of that record. A loss this week puts the Colts effectively 2.5 games behind the Texans in the AFC South standings, as they will be two games behind them and be 0-2 in head-to-heads.
This week is the start of a challenging run for the Colts. They face a Vikings team coming off 10 days of rest in Week 9, then the Bills in Week 10, a likely more effective Jets in Week 11, and the Lions in Week 12. Things get a little easier from there, but if they go 0-5 or 1-4 in the next few weeks, the season could be almost over before they have a chance to repair it.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 2.6%
- Win the Division: 0.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Jacksonville Jaguars have backed themselves into a corner thanks to their 1-5 start. Now, they need to be close to perfect for the rest of the season. This start has shades of 2022, when they started 2-6 before turning things around to finish 9-8 and make the playoffs. That would be the bare minimum of what the Jaguars need to do if they are to make the playoffs this year.
Not helping the Jaguars’ situation is that they have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule this season. That starts with a run against the Packers, Eagles, Vikings, and Lions to take them into their bye. At most, the Jaguars can probably have two losses among that group, but then they would need to be perfect after their bye.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 99.9%
- Win the Division: 93.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: 13.7%
Seemingly without getting out of second gear, the Chiefs are 6-0 and already on the verge of virtually locking up a playoff spot with 11 games to spare. They have not always been the most convincing, but the results speak for themselves. With all of the other teams in the division having had at least three losses this season, the Chiefs can afford a few stumbles and still win the division.
Their primary focus now will likely be on securing that first-round bye and the ability to host all their playoff games. At this point, they have at least a 1.5-game lead over the Texans, Ravens, Bills, and Steelers, so again, they can afford the odd mistake or two. Kansas City also has the 10th-easiest schedule going forward, so they should have a quiet level of internal comfort, even if they would never admit to it.
Las Vegas Raiders’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 1.3%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
We can essentially consider the Raiders’ playoff chances as close to nil. An injury to Aidan O’Connell has forced them back to Gardner Minshew, who has been one of the worst QBs in the last two years, according to QB+. They then have the eighth-toughest remaining schedule this year, starting with the Chiefs and Bengals in the next two weeks before their bye.
We could continue to see the Raiders as sellers before the NFL trade deadline, which falls at the start of their bye week. The Raiders could be one of the first teams eliminated in 2024, and this would largely match the expectations that people had for them entering the season.
Los Angeles Chargers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 37.8%
- Win the Division: 1.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Los Angeles Chargers enter Week 8 at 3-3, but they have yet to be convincing. They won well against bad teams earlier in the year but have then struggled when the level of their opponents increased. They currently sit 20th in terms of PR+ and are coming off a game where they did not score a touchdown in a loss.
Falling in the Chargers’ favor is having the fifth-easiest remaining schedule the rest of the way. They have a tough stretch between Weeks 11 and 14 when they face the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs, but the rest of their schedule looks fairly friendly. However, they will need to win at least five of their other seven games to have a realistic playoff chance this year.
Los Angeles Rams’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 29.4%
- Win the Division: 19.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
There was always a chance that the Rams would look back to their best offensively once they got Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy, and that was exactly the case in Week 8. The defense is still a problem, so they will need the offense to be at its very best to win games. They have started to recover from their 1-4 start and are looking in the rearview mirror at the third-hardest schedule of any team.
After putting up only 3 TDs in the first 6 games of the season, Matthew Stafford surpassed his season total tonight with 4 TD passes vs. MIN. 📈 pic.twitter.com/40m9jbAN6O
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 25, 2024
The natural concerns here are that the defense is still bad and that this offense is injury-prone. Kupp and Matthew Stafford have both missed significant time recently, and Nacua’s knee is most likely not 100%.
If they can stay healthy all season, they have a shot at winning the division, but there is also a path to them winning less than five games.
Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 25.1%
- Win the Division: 2.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.5%
If you have watched the Miami Dolphins at all this year, it would rightly appear inconceivable they have a 25% chance of making the playoffs. However, the return of Tua Tagovailoa this week keeps them in the mix. Granted, the offense did not look great through the first six quarters before he got injured, and there are plenty of injury risks on this offense.
What gives this Miami team a real chance is that they have managed to win a second game, and they have a top-10 defensive unit. There is still a lot to navigate, and there is not much room for error, but the AFC playoff picture may just be soft enough that 9-8 could make it. Going 7-4 with the seventh-easiest schedule in the league is more than possible with Tua under center.
The Dolphins’ range of outcomes this year is still fairly wide. If Tua remains at 100%, they have a real shot at the playoffs. However, if he misses more time, this could be a team selecting in the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 86.2%
- Win the Division: 37.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 9.7%
Losing two straight games coming off their bye week is far from ideal for the Vikings, but their 5-0 start gave them a comfortable cushion. They did not drop that far in terms of PR+ with this loss, as statistically, they did not play a terrible game. Their defense is still a top-five unit, and their offense is marginally above average. They have also faced the fifth-toughest schedule to this point.
It would be easy to write the Vikings off after this, and the NFC is strong, so there is not much room for error. However, their schedule going forward is softer than the rest of their division, ranking 16th-toughest the rest of the way. This is still a very well-built roster, and losing to a reinvigorated Rams team on a short week does not change that.
New England Patriots’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 0.4%
- Win the Division: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Any real chance the Patriots still had of making the playoffs went up in smoke when they lost to the Jaguars at Wembley Stadium last week. They would realistically need to win eight of their remaining 10 games to have any chance, which seems very unlikely with both their offense and defense ranking in the bottom four.
The only positive for the Patriots is that Drake Maye has started the season strongly and looks like he could be a competent starting quarterback moving forward. They have a lot of work to do around him, as, outside of special teams, this has been a mess all over the roster in 2024.
New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 12.2%
- Win the Division: 8.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.5%
After two weeks, the New Orleans Saints were the darling of the NFL. We knew they had beaten up a bad team in the Panthers in Week 1, but we thought the win over the Cowboys was a statement win. It turns out that that may not be the case, as the Cowboys are also a pretty bad team. The Saints have now lost five straight games, and they can only attribute at most three of those to Derek Carr’s injury.
If Carr can get back on the field in the next couple of weeks, this situation could, in theory, be salvaged. The problem is that the defense appears to be below average, ranking 20th this season. That means the offense needs to be a top-10 unit. With Carr, they have a chance, but they have also lost X-factor playmaker Rashid Shaheed, which hurt their potential.
Helping New Orleans is their schedule ranks as the fourth-easiest entering Sunday, so they could take advantage of that to get to 9-8 or 10-7. In the NFC, they may need to be at 10-7 to get a shot at a Wild Card spot, which will be tough if they lose this week.
New York Giants’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 6.4%
- Win the Division: 1.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Perhaps the most surprising thing about the Giants this season is owning two wins. For the most part, the offense has looked like a complete disaster and has only topped 20 points twice. Conveniently, both times they have done it, they have won, and they should thank the defense for keeping them in games.
The Miami Dolphins have scored the least amount of points per game through Week 7 📉📉 pic.twitter.com/QMNh6YGcus
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 24, 2024
The only reason we cannot write them off completely is that they have the 11th-easiest schedule the rest of the way. However, it seems unlikely they are going to be able to win eight of their remaining 10 games, which is most likely what they will need.
The division may end up being their best chance if Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts were to miss time, but even then, they would still need to beat out the Cowboys.
New York Jets’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 35.6%
- Win the Division: 5.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
The New York Jets’ start to the season has been one of the bumpiest of all time. They have fired their coach, revamped their receiving corps, and slid to 2-5. Yet, they remain very much in the picture for the playoffs in 2024. Helping their cause is that the AFC is looking soft in the midfield — a 9-8 record could be enough to clinch the No. 7 seed. Additionally, the Jets have the third-easiest schedule from here on out.
The offense is definitely the problem so far, ranking 24th, with special teams also proving to be a sore point, ranking 31st. However, the defense has trended down in the last two weeks since Saleh left, as Jeff Ulbrich has split his focus from being defensive coordinator to interim head coach.
The schedule should help them turn things around, but there are plenty of potential speed bumps left for a team that can likely afford, at most, three losses the rest of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 80.4%
- Win the Division: 35.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.0%
Things look a lot more comfortable for the Eagles entering Week 8 than they did coming out of their bye week. It has not just been the results over the Browns and Giants, which were projected anyway. But the performances have backed up those wins and improved the Eagles’ outlook for the playoffs.
One of the biggest factors for Philadelphia is that they have the second-easiest remaining schedule, thanks in large part to the weakness of the Cowboys and Giants, as well as having the Panthers and Jaguars on their schedule. If Daniels misses extended time for the Commanders, the division is very much there for the taking, with the Giants and Cowboys floundering this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 87.1%
- Win the Division: 24.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.5%
The Pittsburgh Steelers have probably been the surprise package of 2024. We fully expected them to struggle this year with a combination of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback. However, they have worked a relatively easy schedule well to sit at 5-2 entering Week 8. If they back that up with a win over the Giants on Monday Night Football, they will be sitting pretty at their bye.
Things get a lot tougher after their bye. The Steelers have the seventh-hardest remaining schedule, including two matchups with the Ravens, two with the Bengals, and games against the Commanders, Eagles, and Chiefs. Two games against the Browns, plus this week against the Giants, should be enough to get them to eight wins, and from there, they should be able to fall over the line.
Those two games with the Ravens will be crucial for any hopes of winning the division. Right now, the Ravens are the more complete team, but the Steelers have the better defense, which is often crucial in AFC North clashes.
San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 50.6%
- Win the Division: 32.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.5%
The last thing the 49ers will have wanted to see this week was the Rams looking back close to their normal selves. Having already lost to both the Rams and the Cardinals, the 49ers are on the back foot for the division. Despite beating the Seahawks in Week 6, they realistically need to go 3-0 in their remaining divisional games to have a shot at a top-four seed.
The problem is that if they do not win the division, the race for the Wild Card spots looks set to be intense. Finishing 10-7 might be the absolute minimum for one of those three spots, and that means the 49ers need to finish 7-3. Not helping that is a sixth-hardest remaining schedule that includes games with three NFC North teams and the Bills.
The 49ers still largely control their own destiny as they play many NFC playoff contenders, but their margin for error is fading fast.
Seattle Seahawks’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 49.1%
- Win the Division: 39.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.24%
All possible avenues remain on the table for the Seahawks, who are somewhat of an unknown still at this point. They have beaten three bad teams, lost to two good ones, and split games against average teams. Their metrics tell us that this is a top-10 group overall, but some of that is impacted by some stat padding during an extremely soft start to their schedule.
In a three-week span around their bye, they face all three of the other teams in their division. Having already lost to the 49ers in Week 6, there is not much more room for error in that regard. Win those three games, and they are in pole position for the division entering the final six weeks; lose two or three of them, and their playoff chances will be fading fast.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 66.9%
- Win the Division: 58.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.7%
At times this year, the Buccaneers have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking in the top 10 of our PR+ after seven weeks. The problem is that their offense took a hammer blow last week with the losses of Chris Godwin (for the year) and Mike Evans (for a month). We have seen with the Rams how much of an impact losing two receivers of that caliber can have on an offense.
Therefore, realistically, the Buccaneers are closer to a middle-of-the-pack team going forward for the next month. Once Evans returns, that should improve, but the concern is that their 21st-ranked defense is not going to be able to sustain them. Chances are they might have lost to the Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers anyway, so the timing to lose Evans might be OK, but it is far from ideal.
The game this week with the Falcons is especially important as it could decide the NFC South. The Falcons are already 1-0 over the Buccaneers this year, and 2-0 would leave them a mountain to climb. The Buccaneers would essentially be 1.5 games behind the Falcons and could be 3.5 games behind them by their bye in Week 11.
The schedule for Tampa Bay after the bye is softer, and they profile as having the easiest schedule overall the rest of the way. Even if they head to their bye at 4-6, the Buccaneers could still be eyeing up an 11-win season with the way their schedule shakes out.
Tennessee Titans’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 4.2%
- Win the Division: 2.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Quite honestly, 4.2% for the Tennessee Titans’ playoff chances might actually be giving them too much credit. The offense has looked awful, and Mason Rudolph is unlikely to be a significant upgrade while Will Levis is hurt. The defense is fading fast after a strong start, and the schedule the rest of the way is middling.
The one ray of hope for the Titans is having the fourth-hardest schedule to this point, so they have had a bit of bad luck in those terms. However, the front office clearly believes they are done in terms of 2024, as they have traded two players, with Harold Landry also reportedly on the block.
Washington Commanders’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 83.8%
- Win the Division: 61.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 5.0%
What a fairytale start it has been for the Washington Commanders and Jayden Daniels. Despite some defensive wobbles, they are 5-2 and in a perfect position to make a run for the playoffs. They could be without Daniels this week against the Bears, which hurts, but they have put themselves in a position to be able to weather it for a single week.
The schedule the rest of the way is very much a middle-of-the-pack difficulty, and Daniels’ injury is not expected to be a long-term one. The defense is a concern, but they face several poor offenses in the coming weeks, so that may not matter. We have seen that unit able to shut down average or worse offenses this year — even shutting down a top-10 group in the Cardinals (14 points allowed).
Stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.