We are over a quarter of the way through the 2024 NFL season, and while the playoff picture is still rather frantic at this stage, things will start shaking out over the next month or so. All 32 teams remain mathematically in with a shot at the playoffs, and that will remain the case for the majority through at least the next eight weeks.
Using the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, we have simulated the remainder of the season 10,000 times to produce playoff percentages for each of the 32 teams. Within that data, we have the percentage chance of each team winning their division or making the playoffs as a Wild Card team. This data is refreshed after every game or any major changes due to injury.
Let’s examine the projected NFL playoff picture in the AFC and NFC based on the numbers as of Oct. 16, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Baltimore Ravens
3) Houston Texans
4) Buffalo Bills
5) Los Angeles Chargers
6) Pittsburgh Steelers
7) New York Jets
NFC
1) Minnesota Vikings
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3) Philadelphia Eagles
4) San Francisco 49ers
5) Detroit Lions
6) Green Bay Packers
7) Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 27.5%
The Arizona Cardinals are teetering on the edge of the playoff precipice entering Week 7. They are 2-4, sitting 23rd in our PFN Insights Power Rankings for 2024. However, they have one of the easier remaining strength of schedules, with the seventh-easiest schedule for the rest of the year.
Arizona has been good on offense so far in 2024, ranking 12th in PFN Insight’s Offense+ for 2024 alone metrics. However, they are struggling on defense, sitting last in our Defense+ metric, which examines their 2023 and 2024 performances. They are a slightly better team overall this year than they were last year but not by much.
Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 37.1%
The Atlanta Falcons are a fascinating team to figure out as things stand, entering Week 7. They got to 4-2 with some impressive performances in recent weeks, but there is still clearly a lot to be improved. They currently sit 19th in our power rankings and have the 21st-toughest schedule the rest of the way.
The offense is clicking nicely, ranking eighth in Offense+, but their defense is down to 25th. That trouble on defense will mean their offense consistently has to play well, especially when they are facing the better offenses in the league.
While the Falcons are not currently projected to be in the NFC playoff picture, they are not far away from it. They face the Buccaneers in Week 8, and a win there would put them in firm control of the division with a 2-0 head-to-head lead over the Buccaneers.
Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 80.5%
Despite starting 2-0, the Baltimore Ravens are top of the AFC North after six weeks. They still have five divisional games to play, but they remain firm favorites to win their division this season. Baltimore is currently third in our 2024 power rankings, with the next highest team in the division sitting down in 14th.
The Ravens’ SOS is 20th-toughest the rest of the way, with only the Cincinnati Bengals’ path within the division being easier. Their offense has been electric through the first six weeks, topping the charts in our rankings, and their defense remains right around the league average, which is a combination that can work with their schedule.
Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 81.0%
The Buffalo Bills just about got back on track in Week 6 with their narrow victory over the New York Jets. That has given them a 1.5-game lead in the division and a perfect 2-0 record in divisional games through the first six weeks. The whole division has a fairly straightforward remaining SOS, but the Bills are the ones in the best position to capitalize.
One of the NFL's most efficient offenses gets even better with 5-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Edw3LQBx1V
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 15, 2024
A couple of poor performances have seen them slide to eighth in our power rankings. Their offense has looked fallible, and their league-average defense is not going to carry them. They will hope the addition of Amari Cooper adds another dimension to the offense and can help propel them not just to the division crown but potentially a high playoff seeding.
Carolina Panthers’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 2.0%
We can almost consider the Carolina Panthers done in terms of the playoffs for 2024. Given what we have seen on the field this year, giving them even a two percent chance might be overly generous. While Andy Dalton has given their offense a boost, they are still only 24th on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, their defense is 31st and has proven to be a total liability this season.
Compounding all of this is Carolina owning the 10th-toughest remaining SOS, so even if they up their game to being league-average, it is tough to see them recovering from a 1-5 start.
Chicago Bears’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 49.4%
It has been great to see the development of the Chicago Bears’ offense in 2024, and that development has been enough to put them in the playoff picture as our projections have it entering Week 7. The defense has been great since Week 1 and ranks fifth in our Defense+, but their offense is now starting to come up to join them.
At this point, the offense is still below average for the season but is on its way to correcting that. They have strung together some nice performances, which have been enough to lift them inside the top 10 in our power rankings.
Strength of schedule for all 32 NFL teams from Week 7 through the rest of the season 📊
*Ranked hardest to easiest* pic.twitter.com/OqJGdyl8ax
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 16, 2024
The only concern is that the Bears have played the easiest part of the schedule through the first six weeks. They have the toughest remaining schedule of any team, so we could quickly see them wilt over the coming weeks. The offense will be the key, and if that can settle at league average, the defense has a shot to drag them to a Wild Card spot.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 44.5%
The Cincinnati Bengals’ credentials as a playoff contender are tough to determine. Coming back from a 1-4 start is about as tough as it gets, but they have lost some tough games. The biggest concern will be their defense, which is 28th in our Defense+ rankings and has really only put together one excellent performance this year.
The offense also stumbled in Week 6 against the New York Giants, which was surprising after the way they took it to the Ravens the week before. However, the offense is still a top-10 unit in our rankings, and that can be enough to drag a team into the playoffs.
On top of all of that, the Bengals have the third-easiest remaining SOS in the league. That starts this week with the Cleveland Browns, and then several winnable matches remain in their last 11. While their playoff chances may say 40%, they are currently projected as the first team out. If they string together a few wins, they will creep into the playoff picture.
Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 11.7%
It has been an ugly season for the Cleveland Browns to this point, and they have the defense to thank for a 11.7% playoff chance entering Week 7 even being possible. Sitting at 1-5, they are 26th in our power rankings, in large part to an offense that ranks 31st. The defense is third, but they have also been dropping in recent weeks.
Adding to all of this is Cleveland having the fifth-hardest remaining SOS, which is going to make it challenging for them to turn this around without considerable improvement. Losses to the Bengals and the Ravens in the coming weeks could quickly put these odds in the 0-5% range.
Dallas Cowboys’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 35.5%
Anyone who watched the Dallas Cowboys’ home performances this season will think that these odds are far too high. The Cowboys have been embarrassed at home this season and need to regroup on their bye week. It has not been a complete disaster, as they sit at 3-3, which explains why they remain on the fringes of playoff contention at this point.
It is worth noting the NFC is a lot more tightly packed in the middle than the AFC in our projections. The Bengals are less than five percent more likely to make the playoffs and they are currently projected as the eighth seed in the AFC. In contrast, the Cowboys project as the 11th seed when we average out their playoff chances across the simulations.
The Cowboys are currently 26th in our power rankings, with their offense and defense both ranking 22nd. They are also another team with a tough remaining SOS. Dallas’ schedule ranks as the sixth-toughest from here on out.
Denver Broncos’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 29.4%
This season, the Denver Broncos have built their team around a foundation of strong defensive play, allowing their offense to figure things out. It has worked to some extent, with Denver having a 3-3 record, but they have hardly been convincing this season.
The defense currently ranks fourth in the league and is trending up. We could well be talking about this unit as one of the best two in the coming weeks. The problem is that the offense is down in 29th, which means their current spot in our power rankings is 16th. They also have a slightly above-average remaining SOS, which is not helping the situation.
The Broncos currently sit 10th in our projected AFC standings, in large part because the Jets and Bengals both have significantly easier schedules ahead of them. Ultimately, this will come down to the offense. If Bo Nix can make half the improvement we have seen from Caleb Williams in recent weeks, the Broncos could well be in the playoff picture this season.
Detroit Lions’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 73.3%
After a slow start, the Detroit Lions have exploded into life in the last two games. Either side of their bye, they have scored a total of 89 points, while allowing just 38. We will find out this week against the Vikings whether that was just a product of bad opponents or something more indicative going forward.
The offense has been trending up in recent weeks, ranking second entering Week 7. Meanwhile, their defense is inside the top 10, which averages out to the Lions sitting atop our metric-driven power rankings after six weeks.
The NFC North is somewhat of a coin flip in our projections as things stand entering Week 7. The only separator appears to be SOS, with the Lions having the second-toughest of the 32 teams and the Vikings down in 13th. That gives Minnesota the slight edge in our simulations, but we are talking a game here or there either way in the vast majority of simulations.
Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 60.2%
The Green Bay Packers are on an exciting trajectory in the 2024 season. Things have not gone smoothly, with Jordan Love getting hurt and Malik Willis stepping in to start two games. Love finally looked right in Week 6, and the Packers fired into life on offense. Now they need to sustain it this week against the Texans.
Our power rankings will tell you that the Packers are maybe not as good as their 4-2 record would suggest, sitting 13th overall. That is based on an offense that ranks 11th and a defense that is 20th in our PFN+ metrics. However, those numbers will need more time to shake out considering the Packers’ offensive upheaval this season.
Green Bay’s one big concern is that their SOS is the third-toughest in the league. That leaves them with little room for error. Whether it be an injury or some mistakes, any missteps could be costly with a stacked mid-tier in the NFC.
Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 99.6%
Sure, this number seems very high in Week 7, but have you seen the Texans’ division? They already have a two-game lead and the first half of the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans have not always looked convincing, and despite their 5-1 ranking, they are just 11th in our power rankings.
Houston’s biggest problem has been not looking convincing on offense or defense. They are currently ranked 17th on offense and 10th on defense. Those numbers do not scream division winner, and in any other division, our projections would probably agree with you. However, they still have four games remaining within the division and could easily be looking at a 6-0 record across those games.
The Texans’ remaining SOS could prove to be an issue when it comes to their chances of a high playoff seeding. Of the four projected division winners, they have the hardest remaining schedule. That will make it tough for them to sustain a push for the No. 1 seed, but if they continue improving, they could surprise us.
Indianapolis Colts’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 34.6%
Putting together any kind of projection on the Colts is difficult because of the variation in how they have performed week-to-week this season. A big part of the problem is Anthony Richardson, who is as up and down as the most exciting roller coasters in the world. Joe Flacco has provided some stability, but it hardly will elevate the offense to a top-10 unit.
Despite being 3-3, the Colts are actually down to 24th in our power rankings. They have the 18th-best offense and the 26th-best defense. Those numbers do not scream playoff contender, and we could easily see them slide down our projections in the next week or two.
A lot will depend on what Richardson looks like in the next few weeks. There are some brutally tough matchups against the Texans, Vikings, Bills, and Lions. If they can get through that run, the schedule opens up, so there is a chance they could get hot and make a run in the final month.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 8.2%
The matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots in Wembley Stadium is pretty much an elimination game. Slipping to 1-6 is essentially unrecoverable if 1-5 is not already. The Jaguars’ playoff chances slipped below the 10% line this week, and for good reason.
Jacksonville currently sits 30th in our power rankings, with the 20th-ranked defense and the 27th-ranked defense. Their remaining SOS is middle of the pack, which does not suggest they are about to make a run. There is microscopic room for error, and they have some top-15 teams on the horizon in their schedule.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 99.9%
Nothing in life is ever guaranteed, but the Kansas City Chiefs’ return to the playoffs is almost to that point after six weeks. The Chargers and the Broncos look set to try to keep them honest, but the Chiefs already have a two-game lead and a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers.
The Chiefs are by no means a juggernaut. They have been extremely lucky to sit at 5-0 coming out of their bye, but they still rank fourth in our power rankings. Their offense and defense both rank seventh, and that consistency is keeping them in the top five overall.
Las Vegas Raiders’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 14.2%
This projection feels rather optimistic based on what we have seen from the Las Vegas Raiders so far this season. They are 2-4 and fifth from the bottom in our power rankings, owning the 26th-ranked offense and 21st-ranked defense. Nothing about that screams a team about to go on a run to the postseason.
They have made the switch to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, and the youngster deserves time to prove himself. However, the departure of Davante Adams made this team considerably worse on offense, and they were already bad. Their SOS is the 12th-hardest, and that is a lot to overcome with the talent on this roster.
Los Angeles Chargers’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 50.0%
The Chargers may be listed as the fifth seed in our AFC playoff picture right now, but the fact they are there with just a 50% chance of making the playoffs is telling. The AFC is a mess in terms of the middle of the pack, and you could make a case for at least seven teams in those three spots.
The Chargers are currently 18th in our power rankings, largely on the back of their sixth-ranked defense. Their offense has yet to get going, ranking 27th, but they have had to deal with an injury to Justin Herbert, who should hopefully now be fully healthy.
The Chargers’ ninth-easiest remaining schedule also favors them, giving them a chance to contend for a playoff spot. However, they will want to see more from their offense, but the defense is at least good enough to carry them in the short term.
Los Angeles Rams’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 26.1%
The Los Angeles Rams are another team that feels like they are on the edge at 1-4 coming out of their bye. They should be getting some offensive reinforcements in the coming weeks, but will it be quick enough? The problem is that the offense ranking 16th is only enough to put them 29th in our power rankings because the defense has been dreadful.
Any defense that loses Raheem Morris and Aaron Donald in the same offseason will struggle, but the drop-off from the Rams has been ridiculous. The pressure on their offense will be immense if they want to remain in the hunt. Unless they fix the defense while on the bye, their percentages could deteriorate quickly in the next month.
Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 29.7%
A lot of NFL teams are hard to project in 2024, but the Miami Dolphins might be the toughest. We do not have absolute clarity on when Tua Tagovailoa will be back, and we do not have any idea what this team might look like when he returns. There is a very good chance that a playoff percentage below 30 is doing them an injustice, but it is hard to be more aggressive.
The good news is that they have the 11th-ranked unit in terms of Defense+ and the 10th-easiest remaining schedule. If Tua is back at 100%, this team still has a great chance to be a Wild Card team. There is a lot more left to the Dolphins’ 2024 story.
Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 75.7%
The Minnesota Vikings have been the surprise package of the 2024 season so far, coming off their bye at 5-0. They have been excellent on defense, sitting second in terms of Defense+, and that has carried them to second in our power rankings (behind only the Lions).
Our playoff simulations give the Vikings the edge largely because of their easiest SOS. While the Lions have the second-hardest remaining schedule, the Vikings have the 13th-toughest. When you are talking about two extremely good teams, those differences can be telling in a race for the division.
There is a chance that the competitiveness of the NFC North will mean that the division winner cannot get to the No. 1 seed, but the middling nature of the NFC’s other top teams could mean that 11-6 is enough for a division win.
New England Patriots’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 5.1%
We should probably avoid spending too much time worrying about the Patriots’ playoff chances because they will need something resembling a miracle to turn things around. They currently rank 31st in our power rankings, owning the league’s worst offense and the 24th-ranked defense. Only the Panthers are keeping them off the bottom of the power rankings, and that might not be the case for much longer.
The only ray of light for the Patriots’ playoff hopes would be a fifth-easiest remaining SOS. If the change to Drake Maye at quarterback ignites the offense, a scenario exists where they can get to eight or nine wins, but that is incredibly unlikely. Lose to the Jaguars this week and we can all but cross them off.
New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 29.7%
What a contrast the New Orleans Saints’ season has been. For two weeks, they looked like surprise Super Bowl contenders, and now they have lost four straight games. Compounding the issue is that Derek Carr is set to miss multiple weeks with an injury, and Spencer Rattler is unlikely to lead this team to multiple wins.
The Saints’ position in our power rankings is a little misleading when projecting forward, as they are currently in 10th, thanks to a 10th-placed offense and a 16th-placed defense. They have been dropping through these rankings in the last few weeks and should continue dropping in the next couple of weeks. When the dust settles, this is probably a league-average team.
The one positive is that the Saints have the easiest remaining schedule of any team. The problem is many of the “easiest” games fall in the next few weeks. If they had Carr, you would fancy them to take advantage, but Rattler is not at that level as a rookie.
New York Giants’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 15.1%
We are getting to the point of being able to write off the New York Giants. But at 2-4, they are only two games out of first place in the division, having had narrow losses to the Cowboys and Washington Commanders. They do not look like a playoff team, sitting 22nd in our power rankings.
Everything about this team is below average, with their defense 18th and their offense 25th in our metrics. The only thing that is not below average is the difficulty of their remaining schedule, which ranks as the ninth-hardest. Even the positives are negative with this team, and that is where they sit right now.
New York Jets’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 48.6%
The only team that fired their head coach being projected to make the playoffs does not seem right, but that is the world of the New York Jets. They made a splash adding Davante Adams, and that should boost their offense, which has ranked 23rd to this point in the season. His addition should close the gap between their offense and their top-ranked defense.
Who stops the Jets' new offense? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/tWXt1FTbT9
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 15, 2024
Adding to the optimism for the Jets is that their remaining SOS is the second-easiest in the league. If things come together as they hope, this team has a chance to take a run at the AFC playoffs. If they get there, a strong defense with some explosive playmakers on offense will make them a team no one wants to face in the postseason.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 73.8%
The aggressiveness of our simulator’s projections for the Philadelphia Eagles surprised me somewhat. The Eagles are 17th in our power rankings, with a 15th-ranked offense and a 23rd-ranked defense. Nothing about that says they have a 65%+ chance of making the playoffs, but that is the case, and it comes down to their remaining SOS.
The Eagles’ fourth-easiest SOS for their remaining games puts them in a prime position to build on their 3-2 start. The Commanders have been the most impressive team to watch so far, but they are only half a game ahead of the Eagles, and the two teams have to meet twice. The division hangs in the balance, but can two teams in the East be good enough to both make the playoffs?
Right now, the simulator says no, but the Commanders are the first team out in the NFC, so it is going to be a nail-biter with the way they are performing.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 48.7%
There is a lot to unpack with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are considering benching Justin Fields despite their 4-2 start. That could change this team’s outlook considerably, but we just do not know in which direction. It is unlikely the Steelers’ chances will downgrade too much in the coming weeks because if Wilson is bad, they will just go back to Fields.
Justin Fields through six games as Steelers' starting QB:
🟡 4-2 record
⚫️ 1,337 total yards
🟡 10 total TDs
⚫️ 93.9 passer rating pic.twitter.com/dPwEjtLWZl— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 15, 2024
As things stand, they are 14th in our power rankings, thanks to an eighth-ranked defense. The offense is by no means bad, but they currently sit 21st in our Offense+ rankings. The Steelers will need to overcome an 11th-toughest remaining schedule, which is the worst of the main AFC Wild Card contenders entering Week 7.
San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 55.1%
Our simulations give the San Francisco 49ers just a 55% chance of making the playoffs, which feels low, but there have been some serious concerns about their performances to date. The defense is just 14th in the league at this point, and while the offense ranks fifth, they have had a couple of fourth-quarter collapses that have added concern.
The 49ers’ remaining SOS is the fourth-hardest in the league, adding more complications. While that should not hurt them too much in terms of the division, given that the Seattle Seahawks’ SOS is eighth, it could hurt their chances of getting a bye or even a home-field Divisional Round game.
Seattle Seahawks’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 36.3%
Based on what we have seen from the Seahawks in recent weeks, a playoff probability over 35% seems high. However, they are still 3-3 and in the thick of the playoff picture. Additionally, they are still ninth in our power rankings, possessing the 17th-ranked defense and the 13th-ranked offense. Those numbers likely have some more settling to do after a soft start to their schedule.
The issue for Seattle the remainder of the season is an eighth-hardest remaining SOS. That will make it tough for them to capitalize on the 49ers having the fourth-hardest SOS themselves. The Seahawks missing out on the playoffs is not as inconceivable as it seemed three weeks ago.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 56.3%
The offense carrying the defense seems to be an NFC South trait, with all four teams having that situation through the first six weeks. Despite losing to the Falcons in Week 5, the Buccaneers remain favored to win the division, and we can see why with our power rankings.
Our PFN+ metrics have the Buccaneers ranked as the sixth-best team this year, driven by their fourth-ranked offense. Baker Mayfield has been superb this year, dismissing the narrative that he was a product of Dave Canales and showing he is worth the money given to him this offseason.
Tennessee Titans’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 13.7%
Anyone who has watched the Tennessee Titans this year will likely feel that this is a touch too high for their playoff chances. However, their defense has been impressive this year, ranking 12th overall, and they are arguably playing a little better than that. They are just 22nd in our power rankings despite having a bottom-five offense. Those defensive metrics are stopping their chances from dropping below 10%.
The Titans’ problem is having to overcome their offense and quarterback play and fight the seventh-hardest remaining schedule in 2024. Maybe they have a chance, but it seems unlikely Will Levis and the offense can play sustainably at a high-enough level to get them to eight or nine wins.
Washington Commanders’ Playoff Chances
- Playoff Chances: 47.7%
The Washington Commanders have been the feel-good story of 2024. With Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury working their magic, Jayden Daniels has been incredible through six games, producing the best QB+ score overall in that stretch. He has helped lead this offense to being a top-three unit after the first six games. Unfortunately, the defense is ranking 30th and weighing them down to 12th in our power rankings.
The Commanders’ schedule looks set to help them, ranking as the eighth-easiest the rest of the way. If the defense can pick up to even around league average, this is a top-10 team based on what we have seen from the offense. If that defensive improvement comes, the playoffs and even a division crown would be well within their reach.
Stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.