We continue to see the current NFL playoff picture shift with each passing week as teams jostle for position in those all-important spots. However, the current playoff picture only reveals so much at this point in the season, so to help clarify the situation, our PFN NFL Playoff Predictor simulates the remaining games 10,000 times to produce playoff projections for all 32 teams.
This data is refreshed after every game or following any major roster moves and injuries that could impact the playoff picture or the race for the No. 1 overall pick.
Let’s look at the projected NFL playoff picture in each conference as of Dec. 6, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Buffalo Bills
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Houston Texans
5) Los Angeles Chargers
6) Baltimore Ravens
7) Denver Broncos
NFC
1) Detroit Lions
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Seattle Seahawks
4) Atlanta Falcons
5) Minnesota Vikings
6) Green Bay Packers
7) Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals Playoff Chances
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
- Current Record: 6-6
- Make the Playoffs: 53.4%
- Win the Division: 45.1%
- No. 1 Seed: 0.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.6%
The Arizona Cardinals went into their Week 11 bye flying high with four straight wins and a direct path to a divisional title. Coming out of the off week, however, Arizona has dropped two straight, totaling just 28 points in the process. That level of offensive struggling is very concerning for a team that scored 28+ points in each of the three games prior to this recent run.
Our simulations still give the Cardinals the inside track to winning the division. Their schedule is significantly easier than the rest of the NFC West, ranking fifth-easiest in the NFL. Still, Arizona will need to win at least one and potentially two of its remaining three divisional games.
Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-6
- Make the Playoffs: 41.3%
- Win the Division: 37.7%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
The Falcons will be kicking themselves for letting opportunities to virtually lock up the NFC South slip through their fingers in recent weeks. They should have beaten the New Orleans Saints in Week 10, which would have given them a two-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers entering the final six games.
Instead, the Falcons are on the wrong side of what boils down to a coin-flip situation for the division at this point. The reason why it’s so close is that the Buccaneers have the easiest remaining schedule, giving them a level of upside that is difficult to project for the Dirty Birds.
Atlanta’s schedule ranks as the fifth-easiest, but they have games against the Vikings (Sunday) and Commanders (Week 17), both of which they are, at best, 50-50 to win.
Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-5
- Make the Playoffs: 96.1%
- Win the Division: 37.4%
- No. 1 Seed: 1.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 8.3%
The Ravens have dropped two of three games since the 7-3 start, losing close games to both Pennsylvania teams. Ironically, the defense hasn’t been the major problem in those games (42 points allowed). It’s the offense that mustered just 35 points total in those two losses.
Baltimore’s fate will be determined by a Week 16-17 stretch that includes a rematch with the Steelers and a trip to Houston to face C.J. Stroud.
Realistically, the Ravens are now fighting for the No. 3 seed at best, with the Bills and Chiefs having too much of a lead for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 10-2
- Clinched the AFC East
- No. 1 Seed: 29.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 15.1%
The Bills locked up the division last week, but their sights are set higher. With a head-to-head win over Kansas City and the ninth-easiest remaining schedule, Buffalo is in an intriguing position in the race for the top seed.
The Bills are already a game behind the Chiefs, however, and still have to face the Lions in Week 15. There aren’t many scenarios in our simulations where Kansas City loses two more games this season, so Buffalo will need to go into Detroit and beat the Lions to give themselves a real chance at a first-round bye.
They are as capable as anyone of pulling it off, and #BillsMafia will want as many home games as possible as they try to win their first title this winter.
Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-9
- Make the Playoffs: 0.2%
- Win the Division: 0.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 14.9%
The Carolina Panthers’ admirable efforts over the past two weeks have shown growth, albeit without results. Each of Carolina’s first seven losses this season came by double digits, but the setbacks in Weeks 12-13 (Chiefs and Buccaneers) both came by a field goal.
The Panthers’ second-half rally has dropped their odds of getting the No. 1 overall pick to 14.9% (up from 12.4% this time last week). And after watching the New York Giants on Thanksgiving, it’s hard to imagine them winning another game this season, which the Panthers need if they are to have any chance at the first pick in 2025.
Chicago Bears Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-8
- Make the Playoffs: 0.4%
- Eliminated from winning the NFC North
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 0.4%
The Chicago Bears were eliminated from division contention in one of the most embarrassing ways we’ve ever seen. After mounting an impressive comeback against the Lions in Detroit, to lose in that manner was a horrible way to end the game and Matt Eberflus’ time in The Windy City.
Chicago still has a very slim chance of making the playoffs, but it’s unlikely at this point — though Caleb Williams chasing down Jayden Daniels for the final postseason invite would make for a tremendous story.
Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-8
- Make the Playoffs: 4.5%
- Eliminated from winning the AFC North
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Cincinnati Bengals saw their divisional hopes officially disappear last week with yet another painful loss where the offense looked like one of the five best in the sport.
The Bengals cannot officially be eliminated from playoff contention for a couple more weeks, but they are hanging on for dear life with three losses in their past four games. Cincinnati would have to heat up in a hurry, and while that’s not likely, their remaining schedule isn’t overly prohibitive:
- Week 14 at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 15 at Tennessee Titans
- Week 16 vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 17 vs. Denver Broncos
- Week 18 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-9
- Make the Playoffs: 0.2%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 6.2%
The Cleveland Browns are teetering on mathematical elimination, a formality that figures to take care of itself with the Steelers and Chiefs due up next.
Realistically, Cleveland is probably not focused too much on the playoffs anyway and is instead looking to put together some good performances to build into 2025.
The Browns’ odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft took a fairly significant hit with their Week 12 win over the Steelers. Cleveland is in that weird spot now where wins are nice but ultimately don’t help in the long term, especially if the Browns are looking at the top quarterback options.
Hey, at least they are a fun watch with the Jameis Winston experience in full effect.
Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-7
- Make the Playoffs: 4.2%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Dallas Cowboys have kept their playoff hopes alive with back-to-back wins in the last two weeks. Their proximity to a playoff record isn’t as prohibitive as the number of teams between America’s Team and a postseason invite, which is what has their odds as low as they are.
It would be wrong to write Dallas off completely, but the performances have hardly screamed playoff contenders. The Cowboys’ next two games are against teams ranked around them in our PR+ (Bengals and Panthers), so this run could continue.
However, the last three games are tough (Buccaneers, Eagles, and Commanders). Dallas will need to win at least two of them, if not all three.
Denver Broncos Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-5
- Make the Playoffs: 76.3%
- Win the Division: 3.6%
- No. 1 Seed: 1.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.4%
The Denver Broncos have put themselves in a good position heading into their bye. They’ve rattled off three straight wins ahead of a winnable Week 15 game against the Indianapolis Colts.
The game against Indianapolis is also crucial in terms of tiebreaker ramifications, as the Colts are the closest team to the Broncos in the AFC standings. The division is likely out of the question for Denver, even if there is still a series of results that can get them there.
Detroit Lions Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 12-1
- Clinched a playoff berth
- Win the Division: 71.7%
- No. 1 Seed: 58.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 30.2%
The Lions’ Thanksgiving performance was really bizarre. They dominated the Bears for the first three quarters before letting it slip in the fourth and nearly losing the game. The win over the Packers to kick off Week 14 was a little more convincing, even if it required an uber-aggressive Dan Campbell call that resulted in a buzzer-beating field goal.
The @Lions go for it… and get it!#GBvsDET on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/uHtmLGvCWW— NFL (@NFL) December 6, 2024
The Eagles remain a threat for the top seed, and the Vikings (Week 18 opponent) are still very much in the mix for the NFC North crown.
For large portions of this season, the Lions have looked like the best team in the league, but they can’t afford to take their foot off the gas over the final month of the season. Not that a Campbell-led team is even capable of that, but the top of the NFC is crowded.
Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-4
- Make the Playoffs: 94.3%
- Win the Division: 3.8%
- No. 1 Seed: 2.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 7.9%
The Packers battled the Lions on Thursday night, but their three-game win streak was snapped after a valiant comeback.
Green Bay should still make the playoffs at this point, but their schedule is difficult. Their remaining games against other current playoff teams are the Seahawks in Week 15 and the Vikings in Week 17. The other two games are against the Saints and Bears — neither will be easy, but having both at home is a bonus.
A division title is all but out of the question, though it’s a near lock that the NFC North gets three teams into the dance. That means that they could be a single playoff win from heading back to Detroit with a trip to the NFC title game on the line.
Houston Texans Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-5
- Make the Playoffs: 83.0%
- Win the Division: 76.4%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.4%
It has looked all season like the Texans had the AFC South in their grasp. But risk has been introduced into the situation recently.
At 8-5, Houston has just a two-game lead over the Colts, and the schedule is significantly harder than its rival’s. The Texans have games against the Miami Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens immediately after the Week 14 bye, a run that could result in a few stumbles for a team that has been inconsistent over the past month.
Houston’s offense has been the biggest concern. The Texans do have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts, though, so beating the Jacksonville Jaguars last week was big, and a victory over the Titans in Week 18 could be enough.
Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-7
- Make the Playoffs: 33.2%
- Win the Division: 21.8%
- Eliminated from top-seed contention
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Colts have bounced in and out of playoff contention this season with performances that have largely mirrored the inconsistency of their quarterback play. Nevertheless, they remain very much in the fight for both the AFC South and the final Wild Card spot.
To win the division, Indianapolis realistically has to go 4-0 from this point. The Colts cannot assume that the Titans will beat the Texans, so they have to proceed as though Houston will go 1-3 at worst over the next five weeks. That is doable with games against the Broncos, Titans, Giants, and Jaguars.
The game against Denver next week could also be crucial in the Wild Card race. Indianapolis already has the head-to-head over the Dolphins, and if they beat the Broncos, would be in position to win 1-on-1 tiebreakers against both their nearest rivals.
Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-10
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 10.8%
The Jaguars were officially booted from the playoff race last week with their 23-20 loss to the Texans, their fifth straight.
With just two wins, the Jaguars remain very much in contention for the No. 1 pick in 2025. However, Jacksonville’s schedule ranks as the second-easiest in the NFL. They could easily pick up a win or two along the way without having to play particularly well.
The bottom of the standings is crowded, and a single win could greatly skew the Jaguars’ chances at the top pick. But with Trevor Lawrence done for the season, a 15-loss season is very much within the range of possibilities.
Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 11-1
- Clinched a playoff berth
- Win the Division: 89.1%
- No. 1 Seed: 61.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 6.8%
Last week’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders showed just why the Chiefs need to be careful in the final five weeks of the season in order to secure a first-round bye. They are favored to win all five remaining games, but four are against teams currently in playoff spots.
The Chiefs currently cannot afford a single loss. Buffalo is only one game behind them and has the head-to-head tiebreaker courtesy of their Week 11 meeting, in which the Bills won. They are as good as it gets, that much we know, but with one of the 10 hardest remaining schedules, nothing is assured when it comes to home-field advantage.
Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-10
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 12.5%
The loss to Kansas City on Black Friday eliminated the Raiders from playoff contention, something that was a formality given their limitations at the QB position.
With just two wins, the Raiders are very much in contention for the No. 1 overall pick. They are one of three teams with just two losses and could improve those chances significantly with a loss against the also 2-10 Jaguars in Week 16.
Los Angeles Chargers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-4
- Make the Playoffs: 86.7%
- Win the Division: 7.3%
- No. 1 Seed: 2.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.3%
Despite their loss to the Ravens in Week 12, the Chargers are still in a relatively strong position to make the playoffs, thanks to a bounce-back win in Atlanta. However, the loss most likely ended any chance Los Angeles had of chasing down the Chiefs for the division, as they will need Kansas City to lose three of its remaining five games.
In terms of the playoffs, seeding figures to be more the focal point over the final five weeks. The Chargers are one of four AFC teams entering Week 14 with eight wins (no team has seven).
They travel to Kansas City this week, a game that is followed by home games against the Buccaneers and Broncos in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively.
It’s not inconceivable that the Chargers could go 0-3 in that stretch, which would leave them at 8-7 and in must-win territory when they travel to New England and Las Vegas to round out the season.
Los Angeles Rams Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-6
- Make the Playoffs: 26.4%
- Win the Division: 17.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.7%
The Los Angeles Rams remain in an NFC West that could still swing any way over the final five weeks of the season. The Rams’ schedule is slightly easier than the 49ers’ and Seahawks’, but it’s tougher than the Cardinals’.
Los Angeles also grades out as the worst of the four teams in the division by our PR+ metric, so they have the lowest chances entering their showdown with the Bills on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-7
- Make the Playoffs: 21.8%
- Eliminated from AFC East contention
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Dolphins’ playoff chances took a hit on Thanksgiving as their woeful first half left them with too much to overcome in Lambeau. Miami now has five games they may be favored in, but three are on the road, with two of them potentially being cold-weather games in New Jersey and Cleveland.
The Dolphins are guaranteed to enter the final four weeks of the season at least one game behind the Broncos in the loss column and potentially as many as three. With Denver and Los Angeles both winning last weekend, they have a three-win lead over Miami with five weeks to play — something that can, mathematically, be overcome, but it’s far from a likely outcome.
Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 10-2
- Make the Playoffs: 98.4%
- Win the Division: 24.5%
- No. 1 Seed: 16.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 5.8%
It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Vikings are doing exactly what they need to and keeping the pressure firmly on the Lions in the NFC North. Minnesota is just 1.5 games behind Detroit after Thursday night and will have a chance to avenge its previous loss in Week 18.
However, the Vikings have to navigate a schedule that ranks as the NFL’s fifth-hardest over the next five weeks and may also need to rely on tiebreakers falling their way to win the division or get the No. 1 seed. That’s a lot that needs to go Minnesota’s way before even considering winning the division or getting a first-round bye.
The ceiling is high, but with three tough divisional games remaining, a cliff cannot be ruled out.
New England Patriots Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-10
- Eliminated from playoff contention
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 23.2%
The New England Patriots were eliminated from playoff contention last weekend when Anthony Richardson converted a game-winning two-point conversion, handing the Pats their third consecutive loss.
New England is currently the second favorite in our simulations to get the No. 1 overall pick, but with three wins, it may already be too many. It’s not inconceivable that the Patriots could go 0-4 in the next five weeks, but that might not be enough to earn them the top spot.
Of course, the argument could be made that this team is less motivated to focus on the top overall pick, with who they hope is their franchise quarterback already in the building.
New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-8
- Make the Playoffs: 3.4%
- Win the Division: 2.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Saints aren’t eliminated from the NFC South discussion, technically, but their 21-14 loss to the Rams last weekend crushed their odds of a miraculous run.
They are also not completely out of the Wild Card picture, given the issues the Commanders have flashed recently. However, there are too many that New Orleans would need to pass to make this a realistic outcome, especially with road games in Green Bay (Week 16) and Tampa Bay (Week 18) remaining.
New York Giants Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-10
- Eliminated from Playoff Contention
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 35.6%
The Giants were officially eliminated from the playoffs following their Thanksgiving loss. Their woeful performances have made them the firm favorites for the first overall pick in 2025. It’s hard to see where the Giants will win another game this year without someone like New Orleans, Indianapolis, or Atlanta simply playing badly.
Fire up those mock draft machines, Giants fans — who do you want leading your franchise for (hopefully) the next decade?
New York Jets Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-9
- Make the Playoffs: 0.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 2.0%
The New York Jets are in a weird no-man’s land where they are unlikely to both make the playoffs and earn the top overall pick.
This team is about to embark on yet another rebuild, and things are not looking pretty. New York’s performances over the remaining weeks are hard to judge, which makes them a weird opponent for teams to face.
Will Aaron Rodgers return in 2025? We are in Week 14 and may have more questions than answers when it comes to the trajectory of this troubled franchise.
Philadelphia Eagles Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 10-2
- Make the Playoffs: 99.9%
- Win the Division: 95.9%
- No. 1 Seed: 22.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 11.7%
The Eagles have positioned themselves nicely entering the final five weeks, with both a playoff spot and the division within their grasp. It would take an almighty collapse to lose grip of them, and there’s still an outside chance they get the NFC’s No. 1 seed after having won eight straight.
The Eagles are 1.5 games behind the Lions and tied with the Vikings at 10-2. They took care of the Ravens last week and now have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule, a finishing kick that features home games against the Cowboys and Giants.
If Philadelphia gets through that unscathed, the Eagles could finish with just two losses. They would still want Detroit to lose at least one game and then see how tiebreakers fall with themselves, the Lions, and Vikings.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-3
- Make the Playoffs: 95.1%
- Win the Division: 62.4%
- No. 1 Seed: 4.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 6.0%
Pittsburgh lost a slugfest in the snow with the Browns in Week 12 before winning a shootout with the Bengals last weekend, a snapshot of how confusing the Steelers can be week over week.
Pittsburgh has a two-game lead in the loss column entering Week 14 and a game with Baltimore still to play (Week 16). Therefore, they can afford a loss or two if they also beat the Ravens.
Regardless of the AFC North race, the Steelers shouldn’t slide out of the playoff race altogether and will be a team that nobody wants a part of as the weather flips.
San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-7
- Make the Playoffs: 11.1%
- Win the Division: 5.5%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
The San Francisco 49ers are on the short list of teams with the most disappointing 2024 season. They’ve lost three straight games and need to win four of five to finish with a winning record.
San Francisco still has two games within the division and needs to win both after losing to the Cardinals and Rams earlier this season.
There is a path where the 49ers could make the playoffs without winning the division. Yet, San Francisco has the 11th-hardest remaining schedule in the league, a run that is highlighted by a Monday nighter against Detroit in Week 17.
Seattle Seahawks Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-5
- Make the Playoffs: 41.3%
- Win the Division: 31.9%
- No. 1 Seed: 0.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.7%
The Seahawks have put their season back on track in the last three weeks since their bye. At 7-5, they are now right in the thick of the playoff race, atop the NFC West, and in a good position to chase the seventh seed if they miss out on the division.
Seattle’s schedule is really tough, ranking as the league’s 10th-hardest, with its remaining home games coming against playoff teams in the Packers and Vikings.
This week’s matchup with Arizona is as crucial as any left on the schedule. The Seahawks enter with great form, having won three straight, including a win over the Cardinals in Week 12.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-6
- Make the Playoffs: 63.3%
- Win the Division: 59.2%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.3%
The Buccaneers have a simple task in theory and a tough one to execute — needing to finish the season 7-0 coming out of their bye.
The first two steps have been achieved with road wins over the Giants and Panthers. The Raiders are on the schedule this week with a road trip to Los Angeles for the Chargers next weekend their most difficult remaining game.
The problem for Tampa Bay is that there’s no room for error with a pair of losses to the Falcons already on their résumé. That means they need to finish ahead of Atlanta outright. That could happen, but the game count is dwindling.
Going 4-1 in the next five weeks could be enough to get the Buccaneers in as a Wild Card. That would leave them at 10-7, and with the Commanders not in the form they were early on, it could be enough.
If they go 5-0 and don’t win the division, Tampa Bay should have a good chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card, though given the nature of the NFC South, that probably would earn them the crown.
Tennessee Titans Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-9
- Make the Playoffs: 2%
- Win the Division: 1.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 1.1%
The Week 12 win over Houston was great for this fan base, but history could remember it as a turning point when it comes to their draft status.
The Titans do still technically have a small chance of winning the division or getting a playoff spot as a Wild Card. But they are four games behind the Texans in the loss column, so they would need Houston to completely fall apart while they are virtually perfect in the next five weeks.
A Wild Card spot is not inconceivable, but a lot would need to go Tennessee’s way. They would probably need to finish 5-0, a tall ask for a team that has won five games in total since the beginning of last December.
Washington Commanders Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-5
- Make the Playoffs: 62.6%
- Win the Division: 4.1%
- No. 1 Seed: 0.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.0%
The Commanders saw their NFC East chances virtually evaporate from Weeks 10-12, a stretch in which they lost three straight, including a pair of divisional games. From being a sleeper contender for the No. 1 seed entering Week 10 to the door being opened when it comes to missing the playoffs, it’s been a wild ride for a team that entered the season with little in the way of expectations.
Washington’s schedule is by no means easy, but the Commanders should still control their own destiny throughout. In their final four games, their two most winnable are road contests (New Orleans and Dallas), with a Falcons home game in Week 17 also looking favorable.
One thing that might be key when Week 18 rolls around is that they lost to the Buccaneers back in Week 1. Thus, in a straight head-to-head situation, Tampa Bay would have an all-important tiebreaker.
If Jayden Daniels is going to lead Washington to its second playoff appearance in nine seasons, he’s going to have to rediscover his early-season form.