We continue to see the current NFL playoff picture shift with each passing week as teams jostle for position in those all-important spots. However, the current playoff picture only reveals so much at this point in the season, so to help clarify the situation, our PFN NFL Playoff Predictor simulates the remaining games 10,000 times to produce playoff projections for all 32 teams.
This data is refreshed after every game or following any major roster moves and injuries that could impact the playoff picture or the race for the No. 1 overall pick.
Let’s look at the projected NFL playoff picture in each conference as of Nov. 29, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Buffalo Bills
3) Baltimore Ravens
4) Houston Texans
5) Pittsburgh Steelers
6) Los Angeles Chargers
7) Denver Broncos
NFC
1) Detroit Lions
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Arizona Cardinals
4) Atlanta Falcons
5) Green Bay Packers
6) Minnesota Vikings
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals Playoff Chances
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
- Current Record: 6-5
- Make the Playoffs: 62.1%
- Win the Division: 53.1%
- No. 1 Seed: 0.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.6%
Last weekend saw the Arizona Cardinals miss a golden opportunity to stamp their authority on the NFC West. With the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers losing, the Cardinals could have opened a two-game lead atop the NFC West with wins in their pocket against all three of their division rivals.
Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case, as Arizona’s offense looked rusty coming out of the bye week in a 16-6 loss against the Seattle Seahawks.
Our simulations still give the Cardinals the inside track to winning the division. Their schedule is significantly easier than the rest of the division, ranking eighth-easiest, while all their opponents’ schedules rank inside the 10 hardest. Still, Arizona will need to win at least one and potentially two of its remaining three divisional games.
The Cardinals’ loss last week also effectively ended their hopes of getting the No. 1 seed and probably any chance of securing the second seed.
Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-5
- Make the Playoffs: 52.2%
- Win the Division: 47.8%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
The Atlanta Falcons will be kicking themselves for letting opportunities to virtually lock up the NFC South slip through their fingers in recent weeks. They should have beaten the New Orleans Saints in Week 10, and that would have them entering the final six games with a two-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Instead, the Falcons are essentially in a 50-50 race for the division at this point. The reason why it’s so close is that the Falcons have a tougher schedule than the Buccaneers.
Atlanta’s schedule ranks as the fifth-easiest, but they have games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, and Washington Commanders, all of which they are, at best, 50-50 to win.
Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-4
- Make the Playoffs: 98.7%
- Win the Division: 56.5%
- No. 1 Seed: 3.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 8.0%
Week 12 was a good one for the Baltimore Ravens, who got back in the win column, while the Steelers lost in Cleveland. Pittsburgh still leads the division thanks to one less loss, but the remaining schedules slightly favor Baltimore, who has the 11th-toughest remaining schedule, compared to the ninth for the Steelers.
The two teams will meet again in Week 16 in a game that will be crucial for the Ravens to win. A loss would mean they have to finish ahead of the Steelers in win percentage, as Pittsburgh would have the tiebreaker.
Realistically, the Ravens are now fighting for the No. 3 seed, with the Bills and Chiefs having too much of a lead for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-2
- Make the Playoffs: 99.8%
- Win the Division: 99.3%
- No. 1 Seed: 19.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 5.1%
The Bills will have a chance to clinch the AFC East this week, but their sights are set higher. Buffalo is in an intriguing position in the race for the top seed with a head-to-head win over the Chiefs and the 10th-easiest remaining schedule.
The Bills are already a game behind the Chiefs, however, and still have to face the Lions in Week 15. There aren’t many scenarios in our simulations where Kansas City loses two more games this season, so Buffalo will need to go into Detroit and beat the Lions to give themselves a real chance at a first-round bye.
Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-8
- Make the Playoffs: 0.5%
- Win the Division: 0.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 12.4%
The Carolina Panthers’ admirable effort last week was ultimately unsuccessful. With that loss, any realistic chance of making the playoffs by winning the NFC South vanished. Carolina is now three games back on the Falcons and two behind the Buccaneers, with a tougher schedule than either of them.
The Panthers’ second-half rally has dropped their odds of getting the No. 1 overall pick to 12.4% (fourth-highest). And after watching the New York Giants on Thanksgiving, it’s hard to imagine them winning another game this season, which the Panthers need if they are to have any chance at the first pick in 2025.
Chicago Bears Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-8
- Make the Playoffs: 0.5%
- Win the Division: 0% (Eliminated)
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 0.5%
The Chicago Bears were eliminated from division contention in one of the most embarrassing ways we have ever seen. After mounting an impressive comeback against the Lions in Detroit, to lose in that manner was a horrible way to end the game.
Chicago still has a very slim chance of making the playoffs, but it’s unlikely at this point, already being three losses behind the No. 7 seed Commanders.
Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-7
- Make the Playoffs: 7.2%
- Win the Division: 0.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Cincinnati Bengals will see any hopes of winning the NFC North disappear if they lose this week. However, that was probably already out of the level of reasonable expectations when they lost to Baltimore in Week 10.
The Bengals cannot officially be eliminated from playoff contention for a couple more weeks, but a loss this week could put them in a lot of trouble. A loss would ensure Cincinnati is at least two games in the loss column behind the seventh-seed Broncos and potentially three if Denver wins against the Cleveland Browns on Monday night.
Cleveland Browns Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-8
- Make the Playoffs: 0.2%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 6.9%
The Browns cannot be officially eliminated from playoff contention this week, but they could be out of division contention before even taking the field Monday night.
Realistically, Cleveland is probably not focused too much on the playoffs anyway and is instead looking to put together some good performances to build into 2025.
The Browns’ odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft took a fairly significant hit with their win over the Steelers last Thursday. Cleveland is in that weird spot now where wins are nice but ultimately don’t help in the long term, especially if the Browns are looking at the top quarterback options.
Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-7
- Make the Playoffs: 5.0%
- Win the Division: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Dallas Cowboys have kept their playoff hopes alive with back-to-back wins in the last two weeks. They’re now only two games behind the seventh-seeded Commanders but also have four teams between them in the standings as things sit entering the weekend.
It would be wrong to write Dallas off completely, but the performances have hardly screamed playoff contenders. The Cowboys’ next two games are against teams ranked around them in our PR+, so this run could continue.
However, the last three games are tough. They’ll need to win at least two of them, if not all three.
Denver Broncos Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-5
- Make the Playoffs: 74.6%
- Win the Division: 2.9%
- No. 1 Seed: 1.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 4.0%
The Broncos have put themselves in a good position entering Week 13. They have two very winnable games on either side of their bye and will hope to be 9-5 coming out of their Week 15 game against the Indianapolis Colts.
The game against Indianapolis is also crucial in terms of tiebreaker ramifications, as the Colts are the closest team to the Broncos in the AFC standings. The division is likely out of the question for Denver.
Detroit Lions Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 11-1
- Make the Playoffs: 99.8%
- Win the Division: 68.8%
- No. 1 Seed: 59.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 32.0%
The Lions’ Thanksgiving performance was really bizarre. They dominated the Bears for the first three quarters before letting it slip in the fourthr and nearly losing the game.
That performance actually saw Detroit’s Super Bowl odds drop a little as their overall metrics took a hit in the game. With the win, though, the Lions’ situation hasn’t changed massively.
Detroit is relying on other teams’ mistakes to significantly boost its chances of winning the division or the No. 1 seed. As things stand, they are only one game ahead of the Vikings and Eagles in the NFC. Everything could come down to Week 18, when the Lions host the Vikings in a potential winner-takes-all matchup.
Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-3
- Make the Playoffs: 97.0%
- Win the Division: 13.8%
- No. 1 Seed: 9.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 8.7%
The Green Bay Packers now have back-to-back convincing wins over potential playoff contenders, solidifying their spot as one of the better teams this season. Green Bay’s three losses have all come against the best three teams in the NFC (Lions, Vikings, and Eagles), but they have a chance to avenge two of those in the coming weeks.
The Packers should make the playoffs at this point, but their schedule is about to get very tough. Their remaining games against other current playoff teams are the Lions next week, the Seahawks in Week 15, and the Vikings in Week 17. The other two games are against the New Orleans Saints and Bears — neither will be easy, but having both at home is a bonus.
For the Packers to have any real shot at the division or the No. 1 seed, they need to finish the season 5-0, hope Detroit loses another game, and for Philadelphia to lose two. That’s a lot to ask for, but with tough games for all their rivals, it’s within the realms of possibility.
Houston Texans Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-5
- Make the Playoffs: 80.0%
- Win the Division: 72.8%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.3%
It has looked all season like the Texans had the AFC South in their grasp. But now it seems like they might be in some trouble.
At 7-5, Houston has just a two-game lead over the Colts, and the schedule is significantly harder than its rival’s. The Texans have games against the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens immediately after the bye. Their other two games are against divisional rivals, who won’t roll over.
The Texans have failed to grab the initiative this season and secure the division. Now, they could pay the price.
Houston’s offense has been the biggest concern. The Texans do have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts, though, so simply beating the Jaguars and Titans in Weeks 13 and 18 could be enough.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis has five very winnable games, so Houston needs to beat one of the Dolphins, Chiefs, or Ravens to make sure.
Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-7
- Make the Playoffs: 32.9%
- Win the Division: 23.3%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
The Colts have bounced in and out of playoff contention this season with performances that have largely mirrored the inconsistency of their quarterback play. Nevertheless, they remain very much in the fight for both the AFC South and the final Wild Card spot.
To win the division, Indianapolis realistically has to go 5-0 from this point. The Colts cannot assume that the Jaguars or Titans will beat the Texans, so they have to proceed as though Houston will go 2-3 at worst over the next six weeks. That is doable, with games against the Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants, and Jaguars.
The game against Denver could also be crucial in the Wild Card race. Indianapolis already has the head-to-head over Miami, and if they beat the Broncos, would be in position to win one-on-one tiebreakers against both their nearest rivals.
Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-9
- Make the Playoffs: 1.1%
- Win the Division: 0.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 10.0%
We could see the Jaguars eliminated from both division and Wild Card contention this week. Simply failing to win will be enough to eliminate them from the division, while they would need to fail to win and have the Chargers and Broncos better their result to be eliminated from playoff contention.
With just two wins, the Jaguars remain very much in contention for the No. 1 pick in 2025. However, Jacksonville’s schedule ranks as the third-easiest in the NFL. They could easily pick up a win or two along the way without having to play particularly well.
As things stand, the Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, and Giants all have a better shot of picking first according to our simulations.
Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 10-1
- Make the Playoffs: >99.9%
- Win the Division: 91.9%
- No. 1 Seed: 70.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 6.9%
Last week’s game in Carolina showed just why the Chiefs need to be careful in the final six weeks of the season in order to secure a first-round bye. They are favored to win all six remaining games, but four are against teams currently in playoff spots.
The Chiefs currently cannot afford a single loss. Buffalo is only one game behind them, and have the head-to-head tiebreaker courtesy of their Week 11 meeting in which the Bills prevailed 30-21.
Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-9
- Make the Playoffs: 0.1%
- Win the Division: 0% (Eliminated)
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 15.3%
A loss to Kansas City on Black Friday could eliminate the Raiders from playoff contention. If not this week, they likely will be in the next week or two, regardless, so any thoughts of a playoff berth should be truly gone.
With just two losses, the Raiders are very much in contention for the No. 1 overall pick. They are one of three teams with just two losses and could improve those chances significantly with a loss against the also 2-9 Jaguars in Week 16.
Los Angeles Chargers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-4
- Make the Playoffs: 82.4%
- Win the Division: 5.2%
- No. 1 Seed: 2.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.5%
Despite their loss to the Ravens last week, the Chargers are still in a relatively strong position to make the playoffs. However, the loss most likely ended any chance they had of chasing down the Chiefs for the division, as they will need Kansas City to lose three of their remaining six games.
In terms of the playoffs, the Chargers have a three-game lead in the loss column over the Colts and Dolphins, who are currently the first two teams outside the playoffs.
That buffer could be crucial, with Los Angeles having four tough games in as many weeks. The Chargers travel to Atlanta this week and then Kansas City in Week 14. That is followed by home games against the Buccaneers and Broncos in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively.
It’s not inconceivable that the Chargers could go 0-4 in that stretch, which would leave them at 7-8 and in must-win territory when they travel to New England and Las Vegas to round out the season.
Los Angeles Rams Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-6
- Make the Playoffs: 19.8%
- Win the Division: 11.4%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
The Los Angeles Rams remain in an NFC West that could still swing any way over the final six weeks of the season. The Rams’ schedule is slightly easier than the 49ers’ and Seahawks’, but it’s tougher than the Cardinals’.
Los Angeles also grades out as the worst of the four teams in the division by our PR+ metric, so they have the lowest chances entering Sunday of Week 13.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-7
- Make the Playoffs: 24.2%
- Win the Division: 0.7%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
The Dolphins’ playoff chances took a hit on Thanksgiving as their woeful first half left them with too much to overcome in Green Bay. Miami now has five games they may favored in, but three are on the road, with two of them potentially being cold-weather games in New Jersey and Cleveland.
The Dolphins are now guaranteed to enter the final four weeks of the season at least one game behind the Broncos in the loss column and potentially as many as two or three. If Denver and Los Angeles both win this weekend, they’ll have a three-win lead over Miami with five weeks to play — that will be hard to overturn.
Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-2
- Make the Playoffs: 94.9%
- Win the Division: 17.4%
- No. 1 Seed: 13.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 6.5%
It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Minnesota Vikings are doing exactly what they need to and keeping the pressure firmly on the Lions in the NFC North. The Vikings remain just one game behind Detroit and will have a chance to avenge their previous loss in Week 18.
However, the Vikings have to navigate a schedule that ranks as the seventh-hardest in the NFL over the next six weeks and may also need to rely on tiebreakers falling their way to win the division or get the No. 1 seed. That’s a lot that needs to go Minnesota’s way before even considering winning the division or getting a first-round bye.
New England Patriots Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-9
- Make the Playoffs: 0.1%
- Win the Division: 0% (Eliminated)
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 17.5%
This weekend could see New England eliminated from playoff contention ahead of its bye if it loses to Indianapolis. Even if the Patriots survive this week, they’re unlikely to make the playoffs and should instead focus on the future.
New England is currently the second favorite in our simulations to get the No. 1 overall pick, but with three wins, it may already be too many. It’s not inconceivable that the Patriots could go 0-5 in the next six weeks, but so could the Giants and one of the Raiders or Jaguars.
New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-7
- Make the Playoffs: 6.4%
- Win the Division: 5.4%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
New Orleans will hope to continue its mini-recovery after its bye week. The Saints are now just two games behind the Falcons atop the NFC South and could, in theory, close that gap.
The Saints are an intriguing Wild Card in the division race, but the tiebreaker situation is unlikely to be in their favor in any three-way tie, so they would need one of the other two to fall away.
They are also not completely out of the Wild Card picture, given the Commanders’ issues. However, New Orleans would need to pass many teams with five, six, or seven wins to earn the No. 7 seed.
New York Giants Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-10
- Eliminated from Playoff Contention
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 35.6%
The Giants are officially eliminated from the playoffs following their Thanksgiving loss. Their woeful performances have made them the firm favorites for the first overall pick in 2025. It’s hard to see where the Giants will win another game this year without someone like New Orleans, Indianapolis, or Atlanta simply playing badly.
New York Jets Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-8
- Make the Playoffs: 1.8%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 1.0%
The New York Jets are in a weird no man’s land where they make the playoffs in less than 2% of our simulations and get the first overall pick in around 1% of simulations.
This team is about to embark on yet another rebuild, and things are not looking pretty. New York’s performances over the remaining weeks are hard to judge, which makes them a weird opponent for teams to face.
Philadelphia Eagles Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-2
- Make the Playoffs: 99.4%
- Win the Division: 92.7%
- No. 1 Seed: 16.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 11.6%
The Eagles have positioned themselves nicely entering the final six weeks, with both a playoff spot and the division within their grasp. It would take an almighty collapse to lose grip of them, and there’s still an outside chance they get the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
The Eagles are one game behind the Lions and tied with the Vikings at 9-2. They have a mixed schedule, with their toughest game likely being this week in Baltimore.
If Philadelphia gets through that unscathed, the Eagles could finish with just two losses. They would still want Detroit to lose at least one game and then see how tiebreakers fall with themselves, the Lions, and Vikings.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-3
- Make the Playoffs: 93.0%
- Win the Division: 43.3%
- No. 1 Seed: 3.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.9%
What a contrasting couple of weeks for the Steelers, who took control of the AFC North after beating the Ravens and then let it slip away with a loss to the Browns on Thursday Night Football in Week 12.
Pittsburgh has a one-game lead in the loss column entering Week 13 and a game with the Ravens to play. Therefore, they can afford one or two losses if they also beat Baltimore in Week 16.
Regardless of the AFC North race, the Steelers shouldn’t slide out of the playoff race altogether, but there are some scenarios where they go 0-6 or 1-5 in the next six weeks with a tough mix of divisional games and very good opponents.
San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-6
- Make the Playoffs: 20.0%
- Win the Division: 9.5%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.5%
The 49ers appear to be on their knees somewhat entering Week 13. Their inability to string together more than two wins in a row this season has left them at 5-6 and in last place in the NFC West.
San Francisco still has two games within the division and needs to win both after losing to the Cardinals and Rams earlier this season.
There is a path where the 49ers could make the playoffs without winning the division, especially with the Commanders struggling recently. Yet, San Francisco has the sixth-hardest remaining schedule in the league and the fourth-hardest in the NFC.
Seattle Seahawks Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-5
- Make the Playoffs: 37.3%
- Win the Division: 26.0%
- No. 1 Seed: 0.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.7%
The Seahawks have put their season back on track in the last two weeks since their bye. At 6-5, they are now right in the think of the playoff race, atop the division, and in a good position to chase the seventh seed if they miss out on the division.
Seattle’s schedule is really tough, ranking as the league’s eighth-hardest and the sixth-toughest in the NFC.
The Week 14 matchup with Arizona will be crucial, but the Seahawks cannot overlook a tricky trip to New York against the Jets this week; that could undo any good work they achieve in beating the Cardinals.
Weeks 14 through 16 will be a true litmus test for the Seahawks facing the Cardinals in Arizona before hosting the Packers and Vikings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-6
- Make the Playoffs: 53.2%
- Win the Division: 46.3%
- No. 1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
The Buccaneers have a simple task in theory and a tough one to execute — needing to finish the season 7-0 coming out of their bye.
The first step was achieved last week in a comprehensive style. Tampa Bay will have two games with the Panthers and one with the Raiders that it hopes to win with relative comfort. Games with the Cowboys and Saints will see them favored, leaving the trip to face the Chargers in Week 15.
The problem for Tampa Bay is that there’s no room for error. They had slipped to 4-6 and lost both games against the Falcons. That means they need to overcome a current one-game lead for Atlanta and finish ahead of them, or they will lose out on the tiebreaker.
Going 5-1 in the next six weeks could be enough to get the Buccaneers in as a Wild Card. That would leave them at 10-7, and with the Commanders struggling, it could be enough. If they go 6-0 and don’t win the division, Tampa Bay should have a good chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card.
Tennessee Titans Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-8
- Make the Playoffs: 3.9%
- Win the Division: 3.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
- No. 1 Pick Odds: 0.8%
It was good to see the fight from the Titans last week in their win over the Texans, but they’ve hurt their chances of the No. 1 pick. Three wins might already be too much, so Tennessee may end up settling for a top-five or top-10 pick rather than first overall.
They do still have a small chance of winning the division or getting a playoff spot as a Wild Card. Yet, the Titans are five games behind the Texans in the loss column, so they would need Houston to completely fall apart while they are virtually perfect in the next six weeks.
A Wild Card spot is not inconceivable, but a lot would need to go Tennessee’s way, and they would probably need to finish 6-0.
Washington Commanders Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-5
- Make the Playoffs: 51.9%
- Win the Division: 7.2%
- No. 1 Seed: 0.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.7%
The Commanders have seen their NFC East chances virtually evaporate in the last three weeks. From being a sleeper contender for the No. 1 seed entering Week 10, they now just have a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs.
Washington’s schedule is by no means easy, but there are three or potentially four very winnable games if they play close to their best. One thing that might be key when Week 18 rolls around is that they lost to the Buccaneers back in Week 1. Thus, in a straight head-to-head situation, Tampa Bay would have an all-important tiebreaker.