The NFL playoff picture is constantly evolving and shifting, which makes it one of the most intriguing in sports. However, the current playoff picture only reveals so much at this point in the season, so to help clarify the situation, our PFN NFL Playoff Predictor simulates the remaining games 10,000 times to produce playoff projections for all 32 teams.
This data is refreshed after every game or following any major trades and injuries that could impact the playoff picture.
Let’s look at the projected NFL playoff picture in each conference as of Nov. 15, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Buffalo Bills
3) Baltimore Ravens
4) Houston Texans
5) Pittsburgh Steelers
6) Los Angeles Chargers
7) Denver Broncos
NFC
1) Detroit Lions
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Arizona Cardinals
4) Atlanta Falcons
5) Minnesota Vikings
6) Green Bay Packers
7) Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-4
- Make the Playoffs: 74.2%
- Win the Division: 62.1%
- #1 Seed: 4.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 6.7%
The Arizona Cardinals have been on an impressive run in recent weeks. They have taken control of the NFC West entering their bye week on the back of a four-game winning streak. The results have not been the only positive aspect, with the Cardinals’ performances being just as impressive as the wins. They have leapfrogged inside the top 10 of our PR+ standings entering Week 11.
Entering their bye week, Arizona will face the ninth-easiest remaining schedule overall, but the makeup of the schedule is interesting. They have two games against the worst teams in the league, the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots, but their other games are all against teams with four or more wins this year, which could make them tricky.
Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-4
- Make the Playoffs: 57.5%
- Win the Division: 55.4%
- #1 Seed: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.7%
The Atlanta Falcons’ loss to the New Orleans Saints last week was a hammer blow for a couple of reasons. First, it kept them within reach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when a win could have opened up a comfortable cushion that could have proven unassailable. Second, it narrowed the Falcons’ playoff window to essentially be about the division alone. They have just a 2.1% chance of making the postseason via the Wild Card spots.
The Falcons’ primary goal will be the division, and to do that, they have to avoid dropping 2.5 games to the Buccaneers in the next eight weeks. However, they have four tough games on their schedule, starting with the Denver Broncos this week and then the Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, and Washington Commanders in a five-week span after their bye week.
Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-3
- Make the Playoffs: 98.5%
- Win the Division: 61.8%
- #1 Seed: 5.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 14.2%
The Baltimore Ravens are in an interesting spot entering Week 11. Barring a spectacular collapse, they should make the playoffs comfortably, but exactly how they find themselves in the playoffs is very much up in the air. They are currently the fifth seed, half a game behind the Steelers, but still have to play their rivals twice before the end of the season.
The first of those games is in Pittsburgh this week, and it will set the tone for the remaining two months for the Ravens. Win, and the conversation will likely flip to whether they can finish as one of the top two seeds. But a loss would leave them two games behind the Steelers in the loss column and with their fate very much out of their hands.
Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-2
- Make the Playoffs: 99.5%
- Win the Division: 98.2%
- #1 Seed: 7.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 7.3%
This week is huge for the Buffalo Bills because it will shape the narrative for the remainder of their season. A win over Kansas City will essentially secure the Bills a playoff spot and the AFC East while also putting them right back in the race for the #1 seed in the AFC. The Bills would be just one game behind the Chiefs in the loss column while also having a crucial head-to-head advantage over their biggest rivals this year.
A loss does not hurt their playoff and division hopes that much, but it makes the entire narrative for the rest of the season about their inability to overcome the Chiefs in big games. It also essentially ends their chances of competing for the No. 1 seed, as they would be three games behind in the loss column and without the head-to-head tiebreaker. The focus for the Bills would then be on trying to secure the No. 2 seed.
Carolina Panthers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-5
- Make the Playoffs: 0.9%
- Win the Division: 0.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Somewhat bizarrely, the Carolina Panthers are only one game out of second place in the division and three games out of first place. They still have to face the Buccaneers twice and the Falcons once, which is why they still have a faint chance of making the playoffs as division winners. However, there are few scenarios where the Panthers make the playoffs as a Wild Card team if they do not win the division.
With games against the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Cardinals mixed in among those division games, it seems extremely unlikely the Panthers can get to the nine or even 10 wins they would realistically need to be a playoff team. There is a potential path to them making the playoffs as a seven-win team if the rest of the division falls apart down the stretch, but that is an unlikely scenario.
Chicago Bears’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-5
- Make the Playoffs: 1.0%
- Win the Division: <0.1%%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Things are not going well for the Chicago Bears, who have lost three straight and have not scored a touchdown since Week 8. They also play in a highly competitive division that could yet supply three of the seven NFC playoff teams. Chicago is already two games back on the Packers, three behind the Vikings, and four behind the Lions. Their most realistic path to the playoffs is through a Wild Card spot, but that would require at least a 4-4 finish.
Compounding it all is that the Bears have the toughest remaining schedule of any team. They still have to face the Packers, Vikings, and Lions twice, as well as the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. If they were to make the playoffs from here, with that schedule, it would be a season we talk about for a long time to come.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-6
- Make the Playoffs: 20.9%
- Win the Division: 0.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
The bizarre nature of the AFC has kept the Cincinnati Bengals firmly in the hunt for a playoff spot. Last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens almost ended their division hopes, as they would need to overturn essentially a 3.5-game lead for the Ravens now that they have lost both games to them (although that could be negated if they sweep the Steelers and the Steelers sweep the Ravens).
Here's our NFL Power Rankings after Week 10, based on our PR+ Metric 📉📈 pic.twitter.com/GCkqnB0iT6
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 13, 2024
The Wild Card picture is a lot more interesting because the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos have stumbled to 5-5 and are just a game ahead of the Bengals. However, our PR+ ranks the Bengals as one of the lowest teams out of those in contention for that seventh seed, with only the Colts ranking lower.
The Bengals desperately need to beat the Chargers this week and then win at least four of their remaining six games. With a middle-of-the-road schedule, it is very much possible, but the play we have seen from the Bengals, especially on defense, makes it hard to trust them with anything resembling complete confidence.
Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 0.3%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The state of the AFC Wild Card picture means that the Cleveland Browns are still a little way from elimination in the current playoff picture. However, with the third-hardest remaining schedule, they would have to put together an impressive run to pass the six teams ahead of them. With uncertainty at quarterback, tanking for the first overall pick might be the wiser decision.
Dallas Cowboys’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-6
- Make the Playoffs: 1.4%
- Win the Division: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Any hopes the Dallas Cowboys had of making the playoffs vanished when Dak Prescott got hurt. He is now set to miss the remainder of the year, making it extremely unlikely they could get close to enough to challenge for a playoff spot. The more intriguing storyline over the next six months is around which position they will target with a potential top-five overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Denver Broncos’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-5
- Make the Playoffs: 58.7%
- Win the Division: 1.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.2%
The Denver Broncos nearly had a different playoff outlook. If that kick from Wil Lutz is good, they would have a two-game lead over the chasing pack in the AFC. In that scenario, their playoff chances are closer to the 70% mark, and they would harbor outside hopes of winning the division if the Chiefs stumbled down the stretch.
As things stand entering Week 11, the Broncos’ season hangs in the balance. They have just a one-game lead over the Colts and Bengals, with the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and New England Patriots sitting two wins behind them. Their remaining schedule does not look that tough overall, but there are a handful of tough games, including finishing on the road in Cincinnati before hosting the Chiefs in Week 18.
Detroit Lions’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-1
- Make the Playoffs: 99.2%
- Win the Division: 69.0%
- #1 Seed: 57.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 21.8%
The Lions overcame a horrific offensive performance to win their seventh straight game. They remain just one game ahead of the Vikings, who will meet in Week 18. Our PR+ metrics grade the Lions as the most complete team, giving them the best Super Bowl chances in the league this year.
The Lions’ remaining schedule is the ninth-hardest in the league, and that difficulty is heavily backloaded. They have games with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Colts, and Bears in the next three weeks before facing the Packers, Bills, Bears, 49ers, and Vikings in the final five weeks. Detroit would love to open up more of a gap between itself and the rest of the NFC before that tough five-week stretch to end the season.
Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-3
- Make the Playoffs: 76.9%
- Win the Division: 6.0%
- #1 Seed: 3.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.9%
With everything the Packers have been through this year, starting the season overseas and then multiple injury issues for Jordan Love, they have done well to be at 6-3 coming out of their bye week. They are just two games behind the Lions in the NFC North, but with losses to both the Lions and Vikings on their résumé, they are on the back foot a little.
The Packers still have to face the Lions, Vikings, and Bears again, as well as the Bears twice. That leaves their destiny in their own hands somewhat, but it also means their remaining schedule ranks as the ninth-hardest in the league. Right now, there is more chance they miss the playoffs altogether than mounting a challenge for the divisional crown.
Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-4
- Make the Playoffs: 87.7%
- Win the Division: 81.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.6%
The Houston Texans need to get their season back on track after losing three of their last four games. The good news is that they have the perfect opportunity to change their fortunes ahead of their bye week with a three-week span of games against the Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, and Jaguars.
However, the pressure will be on in these next three weeks because, after their bye, the Texans have the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens on their schedule. Entering Week 11, the Texans essentially have a 2.5-game lead over the Colts, but that could evaporate in that tough three games between Weeks 15 and 17. The Texans need to use the next three weeks to pad their lead atop the AFC South.
There is a path where the Texans could fail to win the division and still make the playoffs. With the bottom of the AFC as soft as it is, the Texans could earn a Wild Card spot at 8-9, meaning they would only need to win two of their remaining games.
Indianapolis Colts’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-6
- Make the Playoffs: 25.8%
- Win the Division: 15.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
A three-game losing streak has put the Colts in a tough spot and left them little margin for error in terms of the division. Their schedule ranks as the fifth-easiest remaining, but the Texans have the fourth easiest and a virtual 2.5-game cushion thanks to winning both head-to-head meetings over the Colts.
Indianapolis is only one game out of the AFC Wild Card spot, and their schedule is very welcoming. Sure, there is a tough game with the Lions in Week 12, but they finish with three games against the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars. Mixed in amongst that are games with the Jets, Patriots, and Broncos, who are all within one game of the Colts in the AFC playoff picture.
Despite a less-than-stellar season to this point, the Colts still have plenty to play for this year. If they can get Anthony Richardson rolling, they have a chance to still win the division or make a run at the AFC Wild Card spots.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-8
- Make the Playoffs: 1.4%
- Win the Division: 0.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
With Trevor Lawrence not playing in Week 11, the Jaguars’ season looks set to fade into obscurity on Sunday. Mathematically, they will not be eliminated for another couple of weeks, but a loss against the Lions could leave them four games outside of the Wild Card spots with six games to play and plenty of teams to get past.
Jacksonville would realistically be better off shutting Lawrence down for the season and focusing on getting the highest draft pick possible to build the team around him after paying him all that money last offseason.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 9-0
- Make the Playoffs: >99.9%
- Win the Division: 94.8%
- #1 Seed: 81.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 8.4%
Last week’s blocked field goal was huge for the Kansas City Chiefs, not just in terms of them staying unbeaten. But in that, it gave them a >15% boost in terms of their chances of locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Kansas City can now afford to lose to the Buffalo Bills this week and still have a lead in terms of the No. 1 seed.
There should be no real danger for the Chiefs missing out on the division crown. And with a middle-of-the-pack schedule, there are not too many more games that look like realistic opportunities for them to lose their grip on the No. 1 seed. A win this week would put their chances of securing the Wild Card Weekend bye over 90%.
Las Vegas Raiders’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 0.6%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Las Vegas Raiders could theoretically make a run at an AFC Wild Card spot, sitting just three games back with eight to play. However, with uncertainty at quarterback going forward, it seems very unlikely. The Raiders’ best option right now is to secure the highest draft pick possible and look to identify their quarterback of the future.
Los Angeles Chargers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-3
- Make the Playoffs: 80.9%
- Win the Division: 4.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.8%
The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the more surprising packages of the 2024 season so far. They have taken full advantage of a relatively weak schedule to currently sit as the sixth seed and with a three-game lead in the loss column over the team currently eighth in the standings.
The Chargers’ schedule gets tougher going forward. It ranks as the 11th-easiest, but that is heavily influenced by games against the Patriots and Raiders to close out the season, who rank among the worst three teams in the league. The next six weeks will be really tough, starting with the Bengals on Sunday Night Football and ending with a game against the Broncos in Week 16.
The Chargers’ positive aspect is that they may only need three or four wins from their remaining eight games to secure a playoff spot. The games with the Bengals and Broncos will be particularly important as they will also have potential tiebreaker implications.
Los Angeles Rams’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-5
- Make the Playoffs: 15.0%
- Win the Division: 6.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
It was a bad weekend for the Los Angeles Rams as they saw the Cardinals and 49ers win on Sunday before their loss on Monday. That has dropped them 1.5 games behind the Cardinals and a game behind the 49ers entering Week 11. While they have a head-to-head win over the 49ers, they lost to the Cardinals, who also have a head-to-head win over the 49ers.
The Rams’ playoff chances look bleak because they need a few things to fall their way in the coming week. They need to beat both the Cardinals and 49ers, who are both rated higher than them by PR+, and they need some help elsewhere as well. Essentially, they need to win at least five of their remaining eight games while facing the 10th-hardest remaining schedule this season.
Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-6
- Make the Playoffs: 22.9%
- Win the Division: 1.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
The Miami Dolphins salvaged their playoff hopes by snapping their losing streak on Monday night. However, they still have a lot more to do if they are to make the playoffs. Helping their cause is that the AFC Wild Card picture is a bit of a mess, with the Broncos only 1.5 games ahead of them as the seventh seed.
The problem for the Dolphins is that with the Chargers three games ahead of them, they may well be looking at one available playoff spot. The Chargers have a tough schedule coming up, so that could quickly flip back in the Dolphins’ favor. The next two weeks against the Raiders and Patriots are crucial, as a loss against either would be a huge blow to the Dolphins’ playoff hopes.
Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-2
- Make the Playoffs: 93.1%
- Win the Division: 25.0%
- #1 Seed: 18.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 7.5%
It has been a far from convincing four weeks of football from the Vikings, and they may privately consider themselves a little lucky to be 7-2 entering Week 11. This week is the final part of the “soft” stretch of schedule as they face the 2-7 Titans before things get tougher in the remaining seven weeks.
The Vikings are in a good spot in the playoff picture overall, but their unconvincing performances have seen them slide to just a 25% chance of winning the division this season. They face the Lions in Week 18 in a game that could decide the division. They will hope to have a playoff spot wrapped up by then and still have a shot at the division when Week 18 rolls around.
New England Patriots’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-7
- Make the Playoffs: 0.3%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Two wins in the last three weeks have seen the Patriots climb up the standings to within two games of the AFC playoff spots. However, their performances overall would not suggest that they are a realistic playoff contender, especially when put into the context of the fourth-hardest remaining schedule.
It is fun for the Patriots to be competitive in games this early in their rebuild, but a sustained playoff chase could hurt their draft position. Any thoughts of a playoff run could be swept aside with losses to the Dolphins and/or Colts in Weeks 12 and 13.
New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-7
- Make the Playoffs: 4.8%
- Win the Division: 4.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
It is not completely out of the question to consider the Saints in the NFC South playoff race. They have split the season series with the Falcons and are just two games behind them after 10 weeks. There is a scenario where the NFC South could end in a three or four-way tie this year, which is a crazy thought given where the Panthers and Saints were just a couple of weeks back.
The Saints’ schedule ranks as the third-easiest in the league, and they have a game with the Buccaneers in Week 18 that could have playoff ramifications. Realistically, they can only afford one or two more losses and still have a chance to win the division, but they are in the playoff race more than you might think.
New York Giants’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-8
- Make the Playoffs: 0.1%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The New York Giants are not that far away from mathematical elimination from division contention, and Wild Card contention will not be far behind. With seven games to play, the Giants are six games behind the Eagles, so they could be eliminated from division contention as soon as next week. They are only a little bit closer to the Packers and Commanders in Wild Card spots.
New York Jets’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-7
- Make the Playoffs: 8.3%
- Win the Division: 0.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Last week’s result and performance combined to hammer the New York Jets’ playoff chances. With seven to play, they are two games behind the Broncos, and their Week 11 game with the Colts has become a de facto elimination game for them. Lose this, and they will be at least two games behind the Colts and Broncos, both of whom will have head-to-head wins over them.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-2
- Make the Playoffs: 96.6%
- Win the Division: 73.4%
- #1 Seed: 12.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 5.6%
It was not always pretty for the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday, but the overall result was an impressive victory that put them in firm control of the NFC East. They are now two games ahead of the Commanders in the loss column, so if they win all their other games, they could lose the rematch and still win the division.
The Eagles will have half an eye on the Commanders, but their outward focus could well be on the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They are now just half a game behind the Lions and will be desperate to put pressure on them in the coming weeks. Their games in Week 13 (at Ravens), Week 15 (vs. Steelers), and Week 16 (at Commanders) are the three biggest tripping points on this schedule.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-2
- Make the Playoffs: 91.6%
- Win the Division: 37.5%
- #1 Seed: 2.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 4.2%
Much as we saw Thursday in the NFC East, the NFC North battle between the Steelers and Ravens could change the entire outlook of the division. The winner will take control of the board, so to speak, with both teams having very tough finishes to the season lying ahead. Pittsburgh still has to play all six of their divisional games, which is quite the gauntlet in an eight-week span.
The Steelers are real dark horses in 2024. Their No. 1 seed percentage might be just 2.8%, but they still have a game with the Chiefs and are only two losses behind them at this point. Russell Wilson is playing excellently and would grade as the second-best quarterback this season if he had thrown 100 pass attempts. It could all fall apart in spectacular style but this Steelers team is one to watch in the coming weeks.
San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-4
- Make the Playoffs: 54.5%
- Win the Division: 26.8%
- #1 Seed: 1.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.6%
It has been a really tough season for the 49ers, and they will be kicking themselves for letting at least two games slip through their grasp earlier in the year. Their remaining schedule ranks as the second-hardest in the league, and they have already lost to two of their division rivals this season.
The 49ers’ schedule has very little let-up, and that could be their undoing. This group is far from assured of a playoff spot, but they do have some solace in the fact that they are sitting inside the top 10 in our PR+ metric for the season. If they can avoid too many stumbles down the stretch, this is a team no one will want to play in the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-5
- Make the Playoffs: 8.3%
- Win the Division: 4.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Things will come to a head for the Seahawks in the next month as they play three games within their division. Having already lost their first two divisional games, they cannot afford to lose more than one more at this point. Even if they manage to win their next three games in the division, this schedule as a whole is daunting, ranking as the seventh-hardest in the league this year.
You never like to write the Seahawks off, but if they lose in San Francisco this weekend, their playoff hopes could easily be hanging by a thread this time next week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-6
- Make the Playoffs: 43.1%
- Win the Division: 39.3%
- #1 Seed: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.6%
The bye week could not have come at a better time for the Buccaneers, who have injuries and losses piling at a similar rate in the last month. They need to get Mike Evans and Tristan Wirfs healthy if they are to have a realistic chance of competing for a playoff spot down the stretch. However, their schedule does rank as the easiest remaining, and it is not out of the question to see them finish the season 7-0.
The Buccaneers’ problem is that anything below 10-7 is going to be touch and go for a playoff spot. They lost both games against the Falcons, so they need to finish a game clear of them to win the division. Similarly, with three teams at six or more wins in the NFC Wild Card spots, there is the potential that three teams may get to 10 wins. One thing playing in their favor is wins over Washington and Philadelphia in the first month of the season.
Tennessee Titans’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 2.6%
- Win the Division: 1.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Even with the struggles of the Texans atop the division, the Tennessee Titans’ chances of making any kind of noise in the AFC playoff race seem unlikely. They are only two losses behind the Broncos for the final AFC Wild Card but there are several teams between them and Denver who would have a chance to make the playoffs ahead of the Titans.
Washington Commanders’ Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-4
- Make the Playoffs: 73.6%
- Win the Division: 26.5%
- #1 Seed: 1.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.1%
It has been a tough five days for the Commanders, who lost a close game in Pittsburgh before struggling to make a real impression on the Eagles’ defense in Week 11. The one positive for them is that their schedule ranks as the second-easiest remaining, and there is a realistic path to them winning five or even six games down the stretch.
Four wins should be enough for this team to make the playoffs, but they will likely need at least five, including a win over the Eagles if they are to have any chance of winning the division.