As we head into Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. This year’s standings have taken on a strange shape, with only 14 teams above .500 and 11 with three wins or less.
However, a team’s record doesn’t tell the full story, and a lot can change in the NFL playoff picture in the next two months. We’ve examined that potential using our NFL Playoff Predictor, which we have simulated 10,000 times to produce a playoff projection and percentage for each of the 32 teams.
This data is refreshed after every game or following any major trades and injuries that could impact the playoff picture.
Let’s look at the projected NFL playoff picture in each conference as of Nov. 8, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Buffalo Bills
3) Baltimore Ravens
4) Houston Texans
5) Pittsburgh Steelers
6) Los Angeles Chargers
7) Denver Broncos
NFC
1) Detroit Lions
2) Washington Commanders
3) Atlanta Falcons
4) Arizona Cardinals
5) Minnesota Vikings
6) Philadelphia Eagles
7) Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-4
- Make the Playoffs: 41.6%
- Win the Division: 32.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.6%
The NFC West is arguably the most exciting division at the moment, with all four teams within a single game of each other entering Week 10. However, our playoff projections forecast this as a three-way battle between the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco 49ers. All three have between a 30% and 33% chance of winning the division based on current projections.
The Cardinals have the easiest schedule of the three going forward, ranking as the ninth-easiest. Yet, they’ve only played two divisional games so far, with the remainder of them potentially being instrumental in deciding who wins the division.
With the way the rest of the NFC is shaping up, a division title might end up being the only way for an NFC West team to make the playoffs this season.
Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-3
- Make the Playoffs: 64.5%
- Win the Division: 61.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.5%
The Atlanta Falcons have to be pleased entering Week 10 with a big lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. The Falcons are two games ahead of the Buccaneers in the standings and have a head-to-head advantage after winning both meetings in 2024, essentially giving them a three-game lead within the division at the moment.
That may seem like a big advantage with just eight games remaining, but there are several variables to consider. The Falcons’ schedule ranks as the sixth-easiest remaining, but the Buccaneers’ schedule is the easiest. Additionally, our PR+ metric views Atlanta as a below-average team, while it views Tampa Bay in the top 10.
Therefore, in our simulations, 39% of the scenarios have the Buccaneers winning the division. Sitting at 6-3, the Falcons could also make it in as a Wild Card, but our simulations only see them making it that way 3.5% of the time.
Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-3
- Make the Playoffs: 98.6%
- Win the Division: 62.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 10.0%
The Baltimore Ravens’ win on Thursday night was huge. They opened up a 3.5-game lead over the Cincinnati Bengals, which is important in terms of both the Wild Card picture and the AFC North. In our 10,000 simulations, the Ravens miss the playoffs just 1.4% of the time, and they win the division in more than 60% of those simulations.
The two games between the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers remain crucial in the race for the AFC North. The Steelers have the seventh-hardest remaining schedule, while the Ravens have the eighth-hardest. If the Steelers beat the Washington Commanders in Week 10, the division odds will swing back closer to 50-50.
Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-2
- Make the Playoffs: 99.0%
- Win the Division: 95.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 5.7%
The AFC East appears to be firmly in the Buffalo Bills’ grasp entering Week 10. They have a four-game lead over the New York Jets and a 4.5-game lead over the Miami Dolphins with eight games to play.
If the Bills win their next two and the Jets and Dolphins lose their next two, the Bills could clinch the division in Week 11 before their bye week. If Miami loses while Buffalo is on a bye, a clinching scenario could also occur in Week 12.
The Bills’ focus now will firmly be on the wider AFC playoff race. If Buffalo wins two more games than the Chiefs the rest of the way, with one of those being a victory over Kansas City in Week 11, they could be in possession of the No. 1 seed come playoff time.
Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 0.4%
- Win the Division: 0.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Carolina Panthers kept their very slim playoff hopes alive with their win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 9. Carolina’s best path would be through the division, with a very small percentage of our simulations giving them a playoff spot via the Wild Card.
The Panthers would need a four-game swing over the Falcons, including beating Atlanta in Week 18. They would also need a two-game swing over the Buccaneers, who they play twice.
Chicago Bears Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-4
- Make the Playoffs: 4.0%
- Win the Division: 0.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Most other 4-4 teams would have a 10% chance or better of making the playoffs, but the Chicago Bears are in a tough spot in their division. The other three NFC North teams have all won at least six games and have a combined 19-6 record. The Bears are already three games out of first in the division and would need at least a two-game swing on all three of their rivals.
The Wild Card is Chicago’s best chance. The Bears are currently eighth in the standings, 1.5 games behind the Green Bay Packers and two games behind the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings. But after starting with one of the easiest schedules, the Bears now have one of the toughest, making it unlikely we see Chicago in the playoffs this season.
Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-6
- Make the Playoffs: 15.2%
- Win the Division: 0.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
The Bengals had a 30% chance of making the playoffs if things went their way this weekend. Unfortunately, they lost another close game with the Ravens, essentially leaving them 3.5 games behind Baltimore in the division and four losses behind the Steelers.
The Bengals remain in the Wild Card race, sitting just 1.5 games behind the Denver Broncos, who are currently the seventh seed. The Bengals’ schedule is not that difficult, but other than two good performances against the Ravens, they’ve yet to show they can beat a top-tier team this season.
All of Cincinnati’s wins have come against two-win teams, with just a couple more of those layup-type games left on the schedule.
Cleveland Browns Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 0.3%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Cleveland Browns mini-revival petered out after one week and did so in spectacular fashion, with the Los Angeles Chargers winning by 17 points. Mathematically, Cleveland will remain in contention for a few more weeks, with Denver only three games ahead in the standings. However, it seems extremely unlikely the Browns can make a playoff run, given their sixth-hardest remaining schedule.
Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-5
- Make the Playoffs: 2.7%
- Win the Division: 0.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Any faint hope the Dallas Cowboys had of making the playoffs this season faded when Dak Prescott was announced as likely having a multi-week injury. Barring a quick recovery or some impressive Cooper Rush performances, the Cowboys are all but out of the playoff picture.
There’s a chance we don’t even see Prescott again this year, as Dallas could officially be eliminated before he’s close enough to full health.
The Cowboys are 2.5 games back on the No. 7 seed and 3.5 games back in the division. Not impossible, but it’s highly improbable that they make the playoffs or win the division this season.
Denver Broncos Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-4
- Make the Playoffs: 61.2%
- Win the Division: 1.8%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.2%
Last week hurt the Broncos’ playoff credentials, but as things stand, they remain in the Wild Card, and the AFC is very weak in terms of competition there.
Denver is one of just seven teams in the conference with a winning record. Of their nearest challengers, the 3-6 New York Jets may actually prove to be the most dangerous in potentially knocking them out of the playoffs.
The Broncos will have to navigate a schedule that ranks as the 12th-hardest in the NFL the rest of the way. Additionally, they have to play most of the other teams around them in the playoff picture in the final month (Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, and Los Angeles Chargers). How they bounce back this week against the Chiefs will tell us a lot about their credentials moving forward.
Detroit Lions Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-1
- Make the Playoffs: 95.9%
- Win the Division: 45.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 22.2%
After a bit of a wobble to open the season, the Detroit Lions have been superb this year. They’ve won six straight, including wins over both the Vikings and Packers, putting them in a great situation regarding the playoffs. Detroit also holds a three-game lead over the eighth-placed Bears, which almost assures them of a playoff berth.
The division remains a little bit more up in the air. Detroit has a one-game lead over Minnesota and the current tiebreaker based on the head-to-head matchup. However, the two teams meet again in Week 18, which could equalize both factors.
Additionally, the Lions play the fifth-hardest remaining schedule, while the Vikings play the 11th-hardest. Not a huge difference, but it has kept the division hanging in the balance.
Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-3
- Make the Playoffs: 78.1%
- Win the Division: 13.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 5.2%
Losing to the Lions last week was a huge blow for the Packers, as they are now 1.5 games back in the division race and sitting at the bottom of the Wild Card picture.
It’s commendable that they are in that spot despite Jordan Love’s injuries and facing two good division opponents. Green Bay is still favored to make the playoffs overall in our simulations, but there are more than 20% of scenarios where they don’t.
The Packers’ second-hardest remaining schedule makes things tough. Meanwhile, teams like the Rams have the 18th-hardest, and the Buccaneers have the easiest remaining. That could help flip the two-game differences in the win column that exists right now.
Houston Texans Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-3
- Make the Playoffs: 87.7%
- Win the Division: 80.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.0%
The Houston Texans have now lost two of their last three games, while all but one of their six wins have been by one score or less. They still have a virtual 2.5-game cushion over the Colts for the division, which is why their playoff and division chances are so high.
However, Houston is ranked as an average team by PR+, and things are far from guaranteed in the AFC South entering Week 10.
Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-5
- Make the Playoffs: 27.5%
- Win the Division: 15.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The idea of Joe Flacco starting was to boost the Colts’ playoff chances, but the performance in Week 9 was concerning. Thanks to losses around them in the AFC, the Colts remain in the race for both the division and the Wild Card, but they missed a huge opportunity to make up ground and give themselves a closer to 50% chance of playing in the postseason.
Indianapolis still controls its own destiny in terms of the Wild Card, with a game against Denver in Week 15 a potential tiebreaker for that seventh spot. However, with the Texans’ struggles, they shouldn’t count themselves out of overturning that two-game swing and the loss of the head-to-head tiebreaker just yet.
Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 1.1%
- Win the Division: 0.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Any slim hopes we had for the Jacksonville Jaguars disappeared when it became apparent that Trevor Lawrence would miss at least one week and potentially much more.
The Jaguars have a tough two-week stretch, but they had six winnable games after their Week 12 bye and a division that no one seems to want to put a stamp on. A loss this week could see Jacksonville slip five games behind Houston with seven games to play.
Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 8-0
- Make the Playoffs: 99.9%
- Win the Division: 95.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 13.6%
The juggernaut that is the Chiefs just keeps rolling on, crushing all who stand in their way. They haven’t been overly convincing about most of their wins, but here they are at 8-0, with a one-game cushion of the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a three-game lead in the division.
Despite the odds suggesting there are ways for them to lose this division, barring an injury to Patrick Mahomes, it’s hard to see how the Chargers can produce a three-game swing in the remaining eight weeks.
The Chiefs’ primary focus right now will be the Broncos in Week 10, but looming large is that a win in Week 11 at the Bills puts them firmly in the driving seat for the No. 1 seed and potentially an unbeaten season.
Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 0.7%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Las Vegas Raiders cannot be mathematically eliminated for a couple more weeks, but less than 100 of our 10,000 simulations show them making the playoffs. At this point, their chances of winning either the division or the Super Bowl are barely existent.
Las Vegas could be eliminated from division contention in Week 11. They are a few more weeks from Wild Card elimination but could be eliminated entirely by the middle of December.
Los Angeles Chargers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 5-3
- Make the Playoffs: 70.2%
- Win the Division: 2.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.0%
The Chargers have carved themselves a little bit of a buffer as the No. 6 seed, with a two-game lead in the loss column over the Colts. Los Angeles also has the seventh-easiest remaining schedule, putting them in a great spot down the stretch.
Winning the division is asking a lot. The Chargers would essentially need to be perfect from here on out, and rely on at least two other teams to beat the Chiefs to even give them a chance. It’s not impossible by any means, and they face Kansas City in Week 14.
After the Tennessee Titans this week, the Chargers have a tough stretch, including the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. They then finish with games against the Broncos, New England Patriots, and Raiders in the final three weeks. Winning 4-5 of those games should be enough to clinch a playoff spot.
Los Angeles Rams Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-4
- Make the Playoffs: 44.5%
- Win the Division: 32.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.4%
The Rams could have easily been 0-5 heading into their bye week and on the verge of virtual elimination from the playoffs. But a late rally against the 49ers got them to 1-4, and from there, they fought back to a .500 record.
Los Angeles is an above-average team and one of three in virtually even contention for the division. They face San Francisco and Arizona in Weeks 15 and 17, respectively, which could decide the direction of the title.
If the Rams don’t win the NFC West, they have a relatively slim chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card. In 18.4% of the simulations where Los Angeles doesn’t win the division, they get in as a Wild Card.
There is still a path to closing the gap to the Eagles, Packers, and Vikings, but the Rams would likely need a minimum of six wins from their remaining nine games.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-6
- Make the Playoffs: 9.6%
- Win the Division: 0.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
It’s impossible to write the Dolphins off completely, but they have an absolute mountain to climb. Winning the division is very unlikely, with the Bills having a four-game lead in the loss column and the head-to-head advantage from their two meetings. Therefore, the Dolphins will likely need to try and overturn the 2.5-game deficit they have to the Broncos in the No. 7 seed.
You can certainly lay out the path for Miami. A 9-8 record might be enough in the AFC, and the Dolphins have seven winnable games on their schedule. They would ideally need to sweep the Jets and beat at least one of the 49ers, Packers, and Texans. Their chances to make the playoffs would likely drop below 5% if they lose in Los Angeles on Monday.
Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-2
- Make the Playoffs: 89.6%
- Win the Division: 40.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 12.5%
It wasn’t overly pretty last Sunday night, but the Vikings got a crucial victory to end their two-game losing streak. Based on win percentage, they remain the third-best team in the NFC and have played a tough schedule to this point.
In the Wild Card race, they have at least a 1.5-game lead over the nearest challengers, which still has some peril, but most simulations see them holding on.
The division remains more up in the air. Detroit has a one-game lead over Minnesota and the first head-to-head. They’ll meet again in Week 18.
New England Patriots Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 0.2%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Patriots’ playoff hopes are pretty close to being over. They will remain alive mathematically for a few more weeks, but any thoughts of the playoffs should be long gone.
Given what we’ve seen so far this season, racking up a handful of wins in the next four weeks is feasible but unlikely. Even if the Patriots keep their season alive heading into their Week 14 bye, they have a schedule after that which includes the Cardinals, Chargers, and two games with the Bills.
New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 1.1%
- Win the Division: 1.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Saints really needed to beat the Panthers last weekend to have any realistic shot of making the playoffs. The frustrating element is that their remaining schedule ranks as the third-easiest in the NFL, so if they had three or four wins now, we would be discussing how you shouldn’t write them off.
There are scenarios where New Orleans can win seven or even all of its remaining eight games and get into that 9-8 or 10-7 region. All of the Saints’ games are winnable, with the toughest coming in Weeks 15, 16, and 18 when they face the Commanders, Packers, and Buccaneers, respectively.
There’s not much room for error, and with their health issues, it’s unlikely, but they do appear to have the Pope on their side.
New York Giants Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-7
- Make the Playoffs: 0.5%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The New York Giants’ schedule is strange because it technically ranks as the second-easiest remaining but still has games against the Buccaneers, Ravens, and Eagles on it. It’s hard to project the Giants as winning any of those three, which is why their playoff percentage is below 1%. If New York had managed to squeak out another win or two, they’d have an outside shot of a close-to-500 finish.
New York Jets Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 3-6
- Make the Playoffs: 32.9%
- Win the Division: 3.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.1%
The next month is huge for the Jets because, having started at 3-6, they’re sort of backed into a corner. Still, with the Broncos and Colts facing tough matchups and the Bengals having already lost, the Jets could be within one game of the seventh seed by the end of Week 10. They then face Indianapolis in Week 11 before their bye.
If the Jets win their next two, they could be level with the Broncos on win percentage only behind them based on their head-to-head loss. However, Denver has games with the Raiders and Browns in Weeks 12 and 13, respectively, so New York would need to close that gap before then or could be looking at needing to close over two or three games in the final five weeks.
A loss this week doesn’t bury the Jets, especially if both the Broncos and Colts also lose. However, they really need to take advantage of a couple of tough weeks for Denver. If the Broncos beat the Chiefs and the Jets lose to the Cardinals, then it becomes a 3.5-game swing being needed in just seven games.
Philadelphia Eagles Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-2
- Make the Playoffs: 80.4%
- Win the Division: 23.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.2%
The Eagles’ record looks pretty at 6-3, but there is an underlying hint of concern. Only one of Philadelphia’s wins looks to definitively be a quality win, and that was Week 1.
The other five wins have all come against teams with a record below .500, and four of those opponents have combined for eight wins this season. The good news is that with the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, it doesn’t get much harder for Philadelphia.
Starting this week, you can immediately point to four potential wins in their remaining schedule: two games against the Cowboys, one with Carolina, and one with the Giants. The rest of the schedule looks tougher, with the Commanders twice, the Rams, the Ravens, and the Steelers.
The relatively soft-looking path to 10-7 means the Eagles are in a great position to make the playoffs, but this schedule isn’t as easy as the overall number suggests.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 6-2
- Make the Playoffs: 91.2%
- Win the Division: 37.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 4.3%
Coming off their bye week, the Steelers have set themselves up perfectly for the second half of the season. There are some tough games to come, but they’ve opened up a two-game lead over the eighth-seeded Colts, allowing them some room for error down the stretch.
Games against the Browns and Bengals in Weeks 12 to 14 give Pittsburgh an opportunity to break up a schedule that could have alarm bells ringing at times.
The two games between the Ravens and Steelers remain crucial in the race for the AFC North. Pittsburgh has the seventh-hardest remaining schedule, while Baltimore has the eighth-hardest. If the Steelers beat the Commanders in Week 10, the division odds will swing back closer to 50-50.
San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-4
- Make the Playoffs: 51.1%
- Win the Division: 30.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.8%
The 49ers’ first two months of the season have been far from convincing. They are delicately poised in the divisional and Wild Card races.
Our PR+ metric suggests they have played better than the results have indicated, and they should get a major reinforcement in Christian McCaffrey this week. However, according to our simulations, the 49ers are now third-favorites for the division, behind the Cardinals and Rams.
Part of the issue for San Francisco is that the schedule is brutal the rest of the way. It ranks as the fourth-hardest, with games against the Buccaneers, Packers, Bills, and Lions, as well as repeat games against all three divisional opponents.
The 49ers likely need to win six of their remaining nine games at least, but that won’t be easy by any means. It wouldn’t be a major shock to see San Francisco miss out on the playoffs this season.
Seattle Seahawks Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-5
- Make the Playoffs: 7.9%
- Win the Division: 4.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
The bye week has come at a perfect spot for the Seattle Seahawks. After a relatively easy start to the schedule, the wheels have come off with five losses in their last six. Compounding that, Seattle faces the third-toughest remaining schedule this season.
The Seahawks’ slim division hopes will be on the line immediately after the bye. In a four-week span, they face the 49ers again and the Cardinals twice in three games. Win all of those, and they will be 4-2 within the division and right back in the picture.
However, just losing one would ensure they can finish no better than .500 in divisional play, which could be a crucial tiebreaker loss.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 4-5
- Make the Playoffs: 44.0%
- Win the Division: 37.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
In the last five weeks, the Buccaneers are 1-4, but those losses include games against the Falcons, Chiefs, and Ravens, and all but one was competitive. Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers have scored 50 points in the last two games combined, showing how potent the offense is.
The problem is that the defense might be worse than the offense is good.
Tampa Bay takes on San Francisco in Week 10 ahead of its bye. After that, the Buccaneers only face one team that is currently above .500 (the Chargers). The other six games are against teams with a combined record of 13-40.
Tampa Bay’s schedule ranks as the easiest remaining, which is why they remain very much in the NFC playoff picture, even if they slip to 4-6 this week.
Tennessee Titans Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 2-6
- Make the Playoffs: 4.8%
- Win the Division: 3.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Titans could make a realistic case that they are not out of the AFC South race yet. They still have to face the Texans twice and the Colts once.
Tennessee has other games that are winnable against the Jaguars, Chargers, and Bengals, so they could feasibly get to nine wins. It would require much more from their offense starting this week, but with the rest of the division not looking convincing, it’s possible.
The Texans currently have a 3.5-game lead over the Titans, and a large chunk of that could be removed when the two sides meet in Weeks 12 and 18. They could also eradicate the one-game deficit in the loss column to the Colts when they meet in Week 17.
Additionally, the Titans are only 2.5 games out of the No. 7 seed, which is crazy to consider. Nevertheless, it keeps them as outside contenders in the playoff picture right now.
Washington Commanders Playoff Chances
- Current Record: 7-2
- Make the Playoffs: 96.7%
- Win the Division: 76.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 6.0%
Things are looking relatively good for the Commanders, who have a half-game lead over the Eagles for the division and a 2.5-game lead over the Bears, Rams, and 49ers for the final Wild Card spot.
There are plenty of winnable games on Washington’s schedule, but the Commanders cannot afford to lose all four games against the Steelers, Falcons, and Eagles twice, or they could surrender that Wild Card advantage.
The division may come down to the two games with Philadelphia in Weeks 11 and 16. Right now, Washington has the edge of having won that seventh game and is rated as the slightly better team in PR+. However, those division percentages could shift quickly if they lose to the Steelers this week and the Eagles in Week 11.