Here’s our official early preview of the Buccaneers and Washington NFL playoff matchup, which is scheduled to kick off on Saturday, January 9th at 8:15 PM ET on NBC.
Buccaneers/Washington Playoff Preview: Tampa Bay heads into the playoffs on winning streak
Happy New Year, Tom Brady! Here’s another gift for a guy who has almost literally everything: the weakest playoff opponent we could possibly find! Sure, the Washington Football Team has a nasty defensive front headlined by rookie Chase Young, but their offense makes the New York Jets look like the Greatest Show on Turf, and they are only here because the NFC East is a cesspool of remorse and shame.
Washington is no match for Brady coming off a 40-touchdown season and a loaded Buccaneers offense that scored 122 points in its final three games. Or are they? NFL Recap sees a very, very slim potential path to victory for Washington.
Washington Football Team’s season in a nutshell
Washington started the season 1-5 as Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen took turns playing so poorly that not even the 1985 Chicago Bears defense could have helped them. Alex Smith returned to turn the Comeback Player of the Year vote into a landslide by turning the Washington offense from a net negative into something closer to a zero, while Young and Montez Sweat led a deep front seven that kept Washington in games by applying constant pressure to opposing quarterbacks.
Washington lost two of its final three games, and the less said about Sunday night’s 20-14 victory over the Eagles, the better; Doug Pederson’s dignity woke up on Monday morning beneath a Walt Whitman Bridge overpass. But they’re here, and they are better than the New York Giants, who would have reached the playoffs if the Eagles won. Seriously, writing a Giants playoff preview might have been enough to make NFL Recap quit and go back to teaching ninth-grade Algebra.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ season in a nutshell
Tom Brady’s All-Star Revue looked great against molly-stomping Jabroni’s like the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions but surprisingly vulnerable against most of the quality opposition (New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams, even the Chicago Bears) that they faced.
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If any other quarterback were at the helm, the Buccaneers would be perceived as the Indianapolis Colts of the AFC: just good enough to beat bad opponents. But Brady has something that the other great quarterbacks of the NFC lack: a well-earned reputation for finding a way to come out on top in the postseason. And it looks like the Buccaneers are enjoying another Jabroni week, anyway.
Playoff Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ greatest strength
Mike Evans (who was injured on Sunday, but early reports are encouraging), Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, and the horn and percussion sections put every opposing defense in a bind, and Brady remains capable of finding the best matchups. Brady also knows that he doesn’t necessarily have to complete every pass when someone like Evans or Godwin has his defender’s number: Brady’s receivers drew 20 pass interference penalties for 362 yards entering Week 17, both the highest figures in the NFL.
Washington Football Team’s greatest strength
Out of everything in this Washington-Buccaneers playoff preview, this is the most obvious part. The defensive front seven is their only strength. Football Outsiders ranked Washington second in both pass defense and overall defense entering Week 17, and it’s all due to Young and Sweat’s ability to impact both the run and passing games, as well as Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen’s ability to collapse pockets and cause disruption up the middle.
Playoff Preview: Washington Football Team’s biggest weakness
Alex Smith averaged 5.0 Intended Air Yards per throw entering Week 17 per Next Gen Stats, the lowest figure by far in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo is second at 6.2 yards. Imagine a quarterback whose average throw is four feet shorter than the average Garoppolo throw, and you have a pretty clear picture of the Washington offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ biggest weakness
Opponents outscore the Buccaneers 100-88 in the first quarter. Do the Bucs run too often at the start of games? Does head coach Bruce Arians ask Brady to do things Brady cannot do or (heaven forbid) doesn’t want to do? Do the pass rushers commit too many penalties while trying to cover for an inexperienced secondary? Whatever the issue, the slow starts caused real problems against opponents like the Saints.
Bottom Line
The Buccaneers lost to the Bears 20-19 in Week 4. Washington beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 23-17 in Week 13. Anyone seeking a formula for a Washington upset must turn to those games. If Young and the Sweathogs (we’re workshopping that nickname; it probably needs more workshopping) can harass Brady into some turnovers, Smith should be able to convert a few short touchdown drives and keep things close. As several midseason losses illustrated, Brady’s late-game comeback magic just ain’t what it used to be.
One thing to take from this Washington-Buccaneers playoff preview is that an upset is possible. And it’s a little like the Giants formula for victory against Brady’s New England Patriots in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI. But the more likely scenario is a Buccaneers rout that starts as soon as Washington goes three-and-out a few times.
Early Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(All stats via Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise cited)