Somewhere, Roger Goodell is smiling. Roughly two-thirds of the league has legitimate NFL playoff chances with half the 2024 season remaining.
Of the 14 teams that would make the dance if the season ended today, just eight qualified for the 2023 postseason.
In the AFC, 10 teams either have a top-seven seed or are within two games of the NFL playoff picture. The number swells to 12 in the NFC.
Whose NFL Playoff Chances Are Underrated?
In other words, parity, thy name is the NFL.
Expect that pool of contenders to change as the weeks progress — but not necessarily shrink. In fact, it could grow, as 21 teams have a 10% or better chance to qualify.
After Week 9, here’s how the PFN Playoff Predictor sees the playoff race rounding out ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Dtzyriszsm
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 5, 2024
Here’s a look at the teams currently out of the field but most likely to make a second-half push, with odds to get in courtesy of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Chicago Bears
- Record (Conference): 4-4 (2-2)
- Current Seed: Eighth
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 3.4% (0.1%)
- Remaining Schedule: NE, GB, MIN, @DET, @SF, @MIN, DET, SEA, @GB
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .632 (first)
After Sunday, the soft part of the Bears’ schedule will be over. Their remaining eight opponents are all either in the top seven of their respective conference, or just outside of it.
Chicago plays in by far the toughest division in football, and has next to no chance of winning it. But the Bears control their destiny and will likely get in with a sweep of the Packers and the Vikings.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Record (Conference): 4-5 (2-3)
- Current Seed: Ninth
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 15.7% (1%)
- Remaining Schedule: @BAL, @LAC, PIT, @DAL, @TEN, CLE, DEN, @PIT
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .522 (13th)
The Bengals are clearly the third-best team in their own division, but third-best might be good enough for the seventh seed.
Cincinnati already has three conference losses, so a 6-2 finish might only cut it if one of those two losses are against the Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys
- Record (Conference): 3-5 (1-4)
- Current Seed: Thirteenth
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 5.7% (0.3%)
- Remaining Schedule: PHI, HOU, @WAS, NYG, CIN, @CAR, TB, @PHI, WAS
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .557 (eighth)
Speaking of Dallas, what a mess. Mike McCarthy probably needs to go 7-2 down the stretch to make the playoffs (and keep his job), which would be tough in any situation, but especially one in which QB1 Dak Prescott is hurt.
The Cowboys can ill-afford another conference loss with four already.
Indianapolis Colts
- Record (Conference): 4-5 (3-3)
- Current Seed: Eighth
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 28.3% (17.9%)
- Remaining Schedule: BUF, @NYJ, DET, @NE, @DEN, TEN, @NYG, JAX
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .429 (29th)
The Colts are 22nd in PFN’s current Power Ranking+ metric but have a realistic chance of making the playoffs because they currently own tiebreakers over the Dolphins and Steelers and play just three teams currently above .500 the rest of the way.
Our Post-NFL Trade Deadline Power Rankings heading into Week 10 ⬇⬇ pic.twitter.com/9ncmjXGum0
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 5, 2024
Can Joe Flacco play Super Sub and lead his team to the playoffs for the second straight season? It will probably take a 6-2 finish.
Los Angeles Rams
- Record (Conference): 4-4 (3-4)
- Current Seed: Ninth
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 41.1% (29.5%)
- Remaining Schedule: MIA, @NE, PHI, @NO, BUF, @SF, @NYJ, ARI, SEA
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .449 (26th)
Catching and passing Arizona for the NFC West crown is L.A.’s clearest path. But that will be tough given that the Cardinals won the first of two annual head-to-heads.
The Rams must start their run with a win over the Dolphins and finish it with wins in their three division games in the season’s final four weeks.
Miami Dolphins
- Record (Conference): 2-6 (2-4)
- Current Seed: 12th
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 11.4% (0.8%)
- Remaining Schedule: @LAR, LV, NE, @GB, NYJ, @HOU, SF, @CLE, @NYJ
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .405 (31st)
Tua Tagovailoa’s return fixed the offense, but now the defense has disappeared. The Dolphins need to figure it out on the fly, as a seventh loss in eight games Monday night in L.A. would probably be curtains.
“We’re trying to win out,” Tua said after Miami’s latest loss.
The Dolphins probably won’t need to do that, but any more than one loss is likely fatal.
New York Jets
- Record (Conference): 3-6 (3-4)
- Current Seed: 10th
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 33.3% (3.6%)
- Remaining Schedule: @ARI, IND, SEA, @MIA, @JAX, LAR, @BUF, MIA
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .435 (28th)
The Jets’ season looked cooked when they were down at halftime to the Texans on Halloween. But a strong second half to the game could presage a strong second half to the season.
The division at this point belongs to the Bills, but there are enough winnable games on New York’s schedule that the Jets could sneak in as the seven seed. New York can probably afford one more loss, but not two.
San Francisco 49ers
- Record (Conference): 4-4 (2-3)
- Current Seed: 10th
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 51.3% (31.1%)
- Remaining Schedule: @TB, SEA, @GB, @BUF, CHI, LAR, @MIA, DET, @ARI
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .558 (sixth)
The 49ers are by far the best team not currently in the field, per PFN’s PR+, which has them sixth entering Week 10.
San Francisco has been hammered by injuries this year, but the roster’s health seems to be trending in the right direction. The most straightforward way to get in is by winning the division, but that could take wins in at least five of the team’s seven remaining conference games.
Seattle Seahawks
- Record (Conference): 4-5 (1-4)
- Current Seed: 12th
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 8% (5.2%)
- Remaining Schedule: @SF, ARI, @NYJ, @ARI, GB, MIN, @CHI, @LAR
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .544 (10th)
At first glance, Seattle — just a game behind division-leading Arizona — would seem to have a real shot.
But the tiebreakers are ugly. The Seahawks have four conference losses, including to the Rams and 49ers in their only divisional games to date. So, odds are, they’ll need to run the table in the NFC West to have any hope.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record (Conference): 4-5 (4-2)
- Current Seed: 11th
- Odds to Make the Playoffs (Win Division): 44% (37%)
- Remaining Schedule: @NYG, @CAR, LV, @LAC, @DAL, CAR, NO
- Strength of Remaining Schedule: .319 (32nd)
Step 1 for Baker Mayfield: Beat the really bad teams that remain on their schedule — including five with a league-low two wins through nine weeks.
But the Bucs probably need at least one more than that to get in, considering six NFC teams already have at least six wins, including division-leading Atlanta (6-3).