The NFL playoffs are set to get underway as 14 teams fight for the opportunity to go to Super Bowl 59. Here at Pro Football Network, our metrics have allowed us to predict how we see the 13 games that will decide who lifts the Lombardi Trophy playing out.
Using our Offense+, Defense+, SOS+, and special teams metrics, we created a Power Ranking+ (PR+) metric that allows us to score, grade, and rank all 32 teams based on their performances during the 2024 season.
Using these scores and ranks, we can create win probabilities for any matchup in the NFL schedule, be it regular season or playoffs. Additionally, we can apply a calculation for home-field advantage that can be adjusted on a team-by-team basis according to how much their home field appears to benefit them.
Using all of this data, we can predict the percentage outcome of every playoff game and, from that, predict who we believe will win Super Bowl 59. Let’s take a look at the PFN NFL playoff bracket predictions for the upcoming playoffs as we predict who will win the AFC and NFC and who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans on February 9.
Predicting the AFC Playoff Picture
Los Angeles Chargers (5) vs. Houston Texans (4)
Week 18 was hugely important for the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers because whoever finished as the fifth seed was always likely to be considered the favorite, even being on the road against the Houston Texans. The Texans finished the regular season 16th in our PR+ standings with the 28th-ranked offense and the seventh-ranked defense — it was a very mixed season in Houston.
The Chargers finished the regular season ranked 12th with the 17th-ranked offense and the fourth-ranked defense. However, it is worth noting that they played the 29th-toughest schedule compared to the 20th-toughest for Houston. However, even with the SOS difference, we still project the Chargers winning 56.2% of the time, which is slightly less than the 61.8% implied probability of the sportsbooks.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers (56.2%)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3)
That Pittsburgh Steelers’ loss in Week 18 may have felt meaningless after the Baltimore Ravens had already clinched the division, but it was far from meaningless. The Steelers now have to face a Ravens team that sits third in our PR+ with the second-best offense and the eighth-best defense. Additionally, rather than playing in a covered stadium, they will be playing outdoors in close-to-freezing temperatures.
The Steelers finished the season 13th in our PR+ standings with the 25th-ranked offense and the 12th-ranked defense. They managed to beat the Ravens in Pittsburgh in Week 11, but they lost by 17 points in Baltimore in Week 16. The Ravens have the superior team as a whole, superiority on both offense and defense, a higher-ranked quarterback, and a better offensive line.
Based on all of that, it is no surprise that the Ravens win 71.5% of the time in our simulations. The sportsbook odds place the implied probability even higher at 83.3%.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens (71.5%)
Denver Broncos (7) vs. Buffalo Bills (2)
The Denver Broncos got into the playoffs in an impressive manner in Week 18, but excitement should be tempered a little by the fact it came against the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups. This Wild Card matchup against the Buffalo Bills has the makings of the game of the round, with both offensive lines ranking inside the top five and fairly even matchups in terms of offense and defense.
The Bills ended the season fifth in PR+, fourth offensively, and 18th defensively. The Broncos were 11th in PR+ but first on defense and 16th offensively. Therefore, we should have fairly even offense vs. defense matchups regardless of which offense is on the field. The Broncos have a slight advantage in their OL (first vs. fourth), while Josh Allen is ranked third in QB+ compared to 19th for Bo Nix.
This means that our simulation put this game a little closer than you might expect for a 2 vs. 7-seed matchup. At 63.2%, our simulations also have it considerably closer than the 82% implied probability from the sportsbooks.
Winner: Buffalo Bills (63.2%)
Los Angeles Chargers (5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1)
Our projected Wild Card Weekend results send the Chargers back to Arrowhead Stadium as the lowest remaining seed in the AFC. The Chargers have pushed the Chiefs close in both games this year, losing the two games by a combined nine points, including a 19-17 loss in Arrowhead in Week 14.
The Chiefs have the statistical advantage, finishing sixth in our PR+, with a superior offense (12th vs. 17th), offensive line (5th vs. 18th), and quarterback ranking (10th vs. 14th). However, the Chargers have the superior defense (4th vs. 14th), which has allowed them to keep the two meetings between them close this season.
Ultimately, our simulations suggest the Chiefs use their home-field advantage to advance to the AFC Championship Game is the most likely outcome. For reference, the Chiefs would come out on top in our simulations against all their potential Divisional Round opponents.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (60.4%)
Baltimore Ravens (3) vs. Buffalo Bills (2)
They will not say it publicly, but the Bills will spend Saturday hoping for anyone other than the Ravens to come into Highmark Stadium in the Divisional Round. Buffalo would be comfortably favored in our simulations against either the Chargers or Texans if they hosted them — but not the Ravens. This would be a rematch of a Week 4 matchup where the Ravens dominated the Bills 35-10 in Baltimore.
The Ravens ended the regular season ranked third in PR+, with the Bills fifth. This could be a high-scoring matchup with both offenses ranking inside the top four (Ravens second; Bills fourth). The Ravens’ defense finished the season ranked eighth (Bills 18th) after a remarkable recovery in the second half of the season to recover from being ranked in the bottom half earlier in the year.
Our projections have this game as essentially a 50/50 once the Bills’ home-field advantage is factored in. We just have the Ravens coming out on top at this stage, but if they struggle with the Steelers or the Bills dominate the Broncos, that could easily flip to Buffalo.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens (50.7%)
Baltimore Ravens (3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1)
Imagine if we finish the AFC with the game that started the season all the way back in September. In that game, the Chiefs came out seven-point winners by the distance of less than Isaiah Likely’s toe in a game that would perfectly project the Chiefs’ season winning close games by the barest of margins.
A potential revenge matchup for the Ravens would be ideal, with superiority in terms of PR+ (3rd vs. 6th), Offense+ (2nd vs. 12th), Defense+ (8th vs. 14th), OL+ (2nd vs. 5th), and QB+ (1st vs. 10th). All the metrics suggest that the Ravens could go into Kansas City and win, even with home field factored in. The Ravens made so many unforced errors in Week 1, and it would be a major surprise to see them look that sloppy again.
Our simulations have this matchup pretty close to 50/50, with a slight lean to the Ravens. According to our metrics, this would be a worst-case scenario for the Chiefs, as they would be favored against any of their other five potential AFC Championship Game opponents.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens (52.1%)
Predicting the NFC Playoff Picture
Green Bay Packers (7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2)
We kick off the NFC playoff picture in the same way we ended the AFC, with a rematch from Week 1 when the Philadelphia Eagles came out five-point winners over the Green Bay Packers in Brazil. This time, the Eagles will host the Packers at home in front of a raucous Lincoln Financial Field crowd, where they are 4.5-point favorites with the sportsbooks (69.7% implied probability).
The Eagles finished the season fourth in our PR+ rankings, with the Packers not far behind in seventh. The Eagles also have the advantage on defense (2nd vs. 10th) and in terms of QB+ (4th vs. 13th). However, the Packers have a higher ranking offensively (8th vs. 14th) and are marginally higher in OL+ (9th vs. 12th). Additionally, the Packers have played the hardest schedule, compared to the second-easiest for the Eagles.
With home field factored in, the Eagles are projected to win in 59% of our simulations. This is around 10% below the sportsbook implied probability and very much in the margin for a potential upset. The Packers did exactly that last year, marching into Dallas and winning convincingly as seven-point underdogs.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (59.0%)
Washington Commanders (6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3)
We have yet another Week 1 rematch on Sunday Night Football as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Washington Commanders. The Buccaneers won the Week 1 meeting convincingly 37-20, but the Commanders ended up having the better season in record. However, Tampa Bay finished higher in our PR+ standings (8th vs. 9th), thanks in part to playing the 21st-toughest schedule compared to the easiest for Washington.
As the PR+ numbers show, the two teams are incredibly even, with very little separating them across all our metrics:
- PR+: Commanders 9th; Buccaneers 8th
- Offense+: Commanders 17th; Buccaneers 16th
- Defense+: Commanders 6th; Buccaneers 3rd
- QB+: Jayden Daniels 9th; Baker Mayfield 6th
- OL+: Commanders 8th; Buccaneers 3rd
The Buccaneers win in every metric listed, and according to our simulations, they are slight favorites. However, all of those metrics are within the margin where it is hard to project this game as comfortable for Tampa Bay. The sportsbook implied probability is 63.6%, so they have the Buccaneers slightly more favored than our metrics.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (54.9%)
Minnesota Vikings (5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4)
The final game of Wild Card Weekend is yet another rematch, this time from Week 8 when the Los Angeles Rams beat the Vikings 30-20 on Thursday Night Football. This matchup has now been moved to Glendale due to the devastating situation in Los Angeles right now. In terms of the matchup, it does not make a huge difference, as the Rams have one of the worst home-field advantages in the league, so do not lose out too much with the move.
Despite their loss to end Week 18, the Vikings finished second in our PR+ standings with the third-ranked defense and 13th-ranked offense this season. In contrast, the Rams are 10th in PR+, 11th offensively, and 24th defensively, but L.A. has played the tougher schedule (4th vs. 11th). The Vikings also have the advantage at OL (10th vs. 13th) and at quarterback (12th vs. 22nd).
Despite the Vikings’ advantage, this game projects fairly close, with 54.9% of projections having the Vikings as winners. We already saw the Rams beat them once this year, and there is an inexperience factor for the Vikings with Sam Darnold and Kevin O’Connell. For reference, the sportsbook odds have the Vikings with an implied 57.4% win probability.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings (54.9%)
Minnesota Vikings (5) vs. Detroit Lions (1)
The way the NFC Wild Card Weekend result played out in our simulations gives us another two rematches in the Divisional Round. The first is a very recent rematch, being the exact same game we saw to end the regular season. The Detroit Lions dominated that game 31-9, but our simulations suggest it could be somewhat closer next time around.
The Lions are still favored, with 57.6% of simulation having them advance to the NFC Championship Game. They are at the top of our PR+ standings, finishing first offensively, fifth defensively, and seventh on special teams, all while playing the seventh-hardest schedule in the league. All of those, except for defense, are above the Vikings’ numbers. The Lions also had Goff second in QB+ and finished sixth in OL+.
Winner: Detroit Lions (57.6%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2)
A Buccaneers vs. Eagles matchup is a rematch from Week 4 when the Buccaneers blew the Eagles out of the water 33-16. However, the Eagles played that game undermanned, with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith missing offensively and with a defense that was still gelling early in the season.
Our simulations for this meeting see things going much differently, with the Eagles winning in just over 60% of our simulations. Philadelphia has the advantage overall (4th vs. 8th), on defense (2nd vs. 16th), and at QB (4th vs. 6th). However, the Buccaneers have the advantage offensively (3rd vs. 14th), at OL (3rd vs. 12th), and have played the tougher schedule (21st vs. 32nd).
The matchup here could be fantastic, with offensive strength taking on defensive strength and vice versa for their respective weaknesses. That could make for an evenly matched game decided by small factors. Mayfield’s propensity to turn the ball over (16 interceptions and 13 fumbles) could well be the difference in this game.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (60.4%)
Philadelphia Eagles (2) vs. Detroit Lions (1)
If things play out as we have projected, the NFC Championship Game would be the first non-rematch in the NFC playoff picture. A battle between two teams who traded punches virtually all year in the race for the No. 1 seed would be a fitting way to end things. The fact that home-field advantage could be the deciding factor shows just how important it was for the Lions to hold firm down the stretch and not let things slide away.
The Lions are the better team in several ways, with the Eagles really only having an advantage defensively. However, the Eagles are close enough in all the metrics that they should be able to keep this game close. What a matchup this has the potential to be, and the Lions only come out on top in 56.2% of our simulations, suggesting it could go right down to the final moments.
Winner: Detroit Lions (56.2%)
Predicting Super Bowl 59
Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions
It should be no major surprise that this matchup is set to feature the NFC and AFC teams sitting highest in our PR+ (Lions first and Ravens third). This is another game that could be decided on the barest of margins.
The Lions are marginally ahead offensive (1st vs. 2nd) and defensively (5th vs. 8th) but comfortably ahead in special teams (7th vs. 31st) and SOS (7th vs. 14th). In return, the Ravens have the advantage at QB, with Jackson first and Goff second, and in terms of their OL play (2nd vs. 6th).
The styles of the two teams are fascinating because both lean heavily on their run game, with the Ravens ranking second in rush attempts and the Lions third. Additionally, they both target the big play in the passing game, with Baltimore first in net yards per attempt and the Lions second. Both are generally careful with the ball, with 11 turnovers for the Ravens and 16 for the Lions.
A Ravens vs. Lions Super Bowl matchup could be played close to the vest early on before exploding into life in the second half. Despite good overall rankings, both defenses have frailties that can be exploited, and that could make for a shootout in the second half if both teams open up coming out of the second half.
Our projections have the Lions coming out on top just over 56% of the time, but that is well within the margin where this game could be won by either side and potentially even come down to the final play of the game.
Winner: Detroit Lions (56.2%)