The 2023-24 NFL postseason is officially here. With the help of PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s run through the 14-team playoff bracket and make our best guess as to how the tournament could play out.
Will the respective No. 1 seeds — the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers — face off in Super Bowl 58? Or will a surprise contender emerge from the 2023-24 NFL playoff picture?
2023-24 NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions | Wild Card Round
(2) Buffalo Bills > (7) Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s start in the AFC, where the Bills claimed the AFC East and the conference’s No. 2 seed with a Week 18 victory. No team will enter the playoffs hotter than Buffalo, which reeled off five straight wins to close the regular season.
Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense have been electric all year, ranking third in EPA per play and fifth in scoring. But the club’s defense — devastated by midseason injuries — has shown tremendous growth over the back half of the season. Buffalo has allowed more than 22 points just once since Week 10.
That combination should be enough for the Bills to advance to the Divisional Round with a win over the Steelers, whose playoff hopes end after one game. Mason Rudolph has been impressive as Pittsburgh’s new quarterback, but Buffalo ranked fourth in pass defense efficiency over the last nine weeks while facing the likes of Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott.
(3) Kansas City Chiefs > (6) Miami Dolphins
Chiefs vs. Dolphins should’ve been a marquee offensive battle, but injury issues, cold weather, and poor play could turn this into a defensive standoff. In that case, give us Kansas City.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a master in playoff planning and has the pass rush and the secondary to hold up against old friend Tyreek Hill. Miami may not have RB Raheem Mostert or WR Jaylen Waddle, both of whom will be banged up even if they play.
Mahomes’ pass catchers have failed him in 2023, but he should have all day to throw against a Dolphins defense that’s lost edge rushers Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, and Andrew Van Ginkel.
(4) Houston Texans > (5) Cleveland Browns
We’ll stick with the chalk in the final AFC matchup, giving first-year Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud their first playoff victories. Cleveland’s elite defense isn’t inherently reliant on turnovers but ranked third in interception rate. Stroud, meanwhile, led the NFL with a 1% INT rate, so he should be able to take care of the ball against the Browns’ swarming defense.
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Conversely, no quarterback threw more interceptions than Joe Flacco (eight) since he took over as Cleveland’s quarterback in Week 13. He ranked a respectable 17th in PFF’s turnover-worthy play percentage during that span, suggesting the 38-year-old’s been a victim of bad luck. But multiple Houston takeaways — combined with Stroud’s ball security — could spell doom for Flacco.
(2) Dallas Cowboys > (7) Green Bay Packers
Green Bay’s defense is a legitimate problem. While the unit gave up just 19 points over the final two games of the regular season, the Packers defense allowed 30 points to the two-win Carolina Panthers as recently as Week 16 and finished the season 27th in DVOA.
Mike McCarthy’s revenge game against the team that fired him in 2018 seems unlikely to be spoiled. Green Bay doesn’t have the secondary talent to keep up with CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Co., and Dak Prescott shouldn’t have any trouble diagnosing and carving up Packers DC Joe Barry’s scheme.
(5) Philadelphia Eagles > (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our first upset might not seem like much of an upset at all, but the Eagles are limping into the playoffs, both figuratively and literally. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith are hampered by injuries and unlikely to be at full strength if they manage to suit up against the Buccaneers.
Still, if Philadelphia’s trifecta can play on Monday night, it should be able to attack a Tampa Bay defense that’s struggled to defend the pass. Todd Bowles’ defense has been more productive against the run, which could limit D’Andre Swfit’s contributions and force Hurts to take to the air.
We’re not nearly as confident picking the Eagles to win this game as we might’ve been in November. Still, Nick Sirianni’s ability as a game manager gives Philadelphia a slight edge.
(6) Los Angeles Rams > (3) Detroit Lions
Jared Goff surely wants to take down Sean McVay and the Rams after they traded him to Detroit in 2021 and promptly won a Super Bowl with ex-Lion Matthew Stafford under center.
But the Lions are only three-point home favorites, suggesting the betting markets view these two teams as roughly equal.
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Both teams should put up points, but the Rams are well-equipped to attack Detroit’s struggling secondary with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
While RB Kyren Williams might not have much success against a Lions defense that allowed just 62.5 rushing yards per game from Week 14 on, Stafford and Co. will have opportunities for chunk yardage in the passing game.
2023-24 NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions | Divisional Round
(1) Baltimore Ravens > (4) Houston Texans
Lamar Jackson hasn’t appeared in a playoff game in three years, and the presumptive league MVP should have a field day against a Texans defense that’s been dominant against the run but struggled against the pass.
We’ve already watched Baltimore score at will against teams like the 49ers and Dolphins, each of whom boasts a more talented defense than Houston.
The Ravens and Texans already squared off in the season opener, which Baltimore won by 16 points. It was Stroud’s third-worst game of the year by QBR (34.8), but it was also his first professional start.
Houston won’t be a pushover by any means, but the Ravens’ veteran experience wins out.
(2) Buffalo Bills > (3) Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills finally get past their archenemy. Mahomes disposed of Buffalo in the 2020 and 2021 playoffs, infamously taking down Allen and Co. in what Bills fans simply call 13 Seconds.
But Buffalo is the more talented team. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Mahomes won’t be able to pull his usual magic and send the Chiefs to their sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game. But the once-elite Kansas City offense has struggled to find consistency or generate explosive plays and might not find answers against a Bills defense that’s finally meshed.
(2) Dallas Cowboys > (5) Philadelphia Eagles
Consider the four units involved in this matchup, and you’ll notice one significant outlier. While both offenses and the Cowboys’ defense all rank as top-10 units by points-per-snap, the Eagles’ defense is a woeful 29th in EPA per play.
Philadelphia already gave up 33 points to Dallas in their Week 14 matchup, but it’s also struggled against poor offenses. The Matt Patricia-coordinated Eagles’ defense gave up 29 points per game in three season-closing contests against the Giants and Cardinals, losing two of those games and giving the Cowboys the NFC East title.
While Eagles CB Darius Slay might be available by the Divisional Round, the rest of Philadelphia’s defense won’t suddenly improve. Prescott shouldn’t have any issues putting up 30-plus points, and the Eagles’ injured offense won’t be able to keep up.
(6) Los Angeles Rams > (1) San Francisco 49ers
All of the 49ers’ 12 victories came by more than one score, except one: San Francisco’s 30-23 win over the Rams in Week 2.
That close contest doesn’t necessarily mean Sean McVay’s club can knock off Kyle Shanahan’s squad in Round 2, but it’s easy to imagine these NFC West rivals playing a tight game.
Los Angeles’ defense doesn’t have the horses to cover Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and the rest of the 49ers’ weapons. That means Rams DC Raheem Morris must figure out how to attack San Francisco’s primary offensive weakness: its offensive line.
Fortunately, L.A. happens to have future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald on hand to get after the 49ers’ beatable interior, and standout rookie DT Kobie Turner can help out, too. Meanwhile, look for Morris to use blitzes, sim pressures, stunts, twists, and other games — which the Rams already do as much as any team in the league — to confuse San Francisco’s non-Trent Williams linemen.
2023-24 NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions | Championship Round
(2) Buffalo Bills > (1) Baltimore Ravens
Two of the NFL’s most creative quarterbacks will face off in this matchup, and choosing one over the other is difficult. Allen is the most physical signal-caller in the game and has the arm to hit any location on the field. Meanwhile, Jackson upped his game from the pocket in 2023 while retaining his ability on the ground and is on track to win his second MVP award.
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There’s no wrong answer here. We’re going with Buffalo, but this may be the most challenging game to project among the entire playoff slate.
(2) Dallas Cowboys > (6) Los Angeles Rams
The NFC is a bit simpler. The Cowboys luck out by avoiding a rematch with the 49ers, who stomped Dallas en route to a 42-10 victory in Week 5. San Francisco’s outstanding rushing attack might’ve destroyed a Cowboys defense that continues to have issues against the run.
The Rams are hardly slouches in the run game, ranking fifth in rushing success rate (43.4%). But Los Angeles’ defense is not set up to stop Dallas’ offense.
Prescott is rarely pressured (fifth-lowest rate in the NFL), while the Rams only generate pressure on 18.7% of opposing dropbacks, tied for fifth-worst in the league. L.A. cornerbacks Ahkello Witherspoon, Derion Kendrick, and Cobie Durant have been serviceable, but Lamb went off for 12-158-2 against this secondary in Week 8.
2023-24 NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions | Super Bowl 58
(2) Buffalo Bills > (2) Dallas Cowboys
The Bills and Cowboys squared off in what would become the first of back-to-back Super Bowl matchups at this time 30 years ago. Dallas got the better of Buffalo in both games, and the Bills are still searching for their first Super Bowl trophy.
But in our world, Buffalo’s drought ends this season. In what would project as a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest, Allen drives down the field for a game-winning score, leaving no time on the clock for Prescott to rebut.
Securing the Lombardi would cap an incredible run for the Bills, who fired their offensive coordinator after Week 10, were still at .500 after Week 12, and had a chance to miss the playoffs altogether entering Week 18.
You heard it here first: the Buffalo Bills are your Super Bowl 58 champions.
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