Today, we have 12 NFL Week 5 games as a few teams are on byes for the first time this season, but there are still plenty of NFL player props to choose from.
Which players are in for big weeks, and are there any players due for a bounce back or regression? The PFN betting team gives out their favorite player prop bets for today’s Week 5 action.
From Bijan Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Breece Hall, and others, we have more than 10 different player prop bets that we like this week.
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Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets
Bijan Robinson Over 77.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Bijan Robinson has looked as good as advertised coming out of Texas and being drafted in the top 10 as a running back. So far this season, he’s averaging 79.5 rushing yards per game and six yards per carry.
Robinson only has 24 combined carries over the last two weeks because the Atlanta Falcons were down by at least two scores by halftime in both games. Even against a Jacksonville Jaguars run defense that was third best in EPA/play going into last week, Robinson had 14 carries for 105 yards.
After being road underdogs (including a game in London) two weeks in a row, the Falcons are short home favorites again this week, and it’s an advantageous matchup for Robinson.
The traditional run defense statistics against the Texans are a bit deflated by their early big leads two weeks in a row, but they rank just 25th in EPA/play and success rate.
This might be a bounce-back spot for the Falcons. If so, Robinson should have a big day. But regardless, as long as this is close, I feel good about him going over this number. Only Tyler Allgeier and Arthur Smith stand in our way.
Josh Dobbs Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100 at DraftKings)
Josh Dobbs has been much better than anyone could’ve expected so far this season, especially considering the team traded for him late in the preseason. Through four games, he’s eighth in QBR at 67.3 and has thrown for four touchdowns.
Dobbs is also the only quarterback who has started every week this season that has not thrown an interception. However, he’s getting a bit lucky, as he is seventh in most interception-worthy throws so far this season.
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Of all the quarterbacks with as many interception-worthy throws as Dobbs, none of them have thrown for less than three.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense got shredded by Ryan Tannehill last week, but at even money, I like my chances on Dobbs’ interception luck coming to an end.
Calvin Ridley Ladder: Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel, One Unit), 70+ Receiving Yards (+168, Half Unit), and 90+ Receiving Yards (+320, Quarter Unit)
Soppe: The Buffalo Bills are not just having to work with driving on the wrong side of the road this week, they’re also adapting on the fly to life without cornerback Tre’Davious White (Achilles).
Here is what the most targeted receiver has done against the Bills in Buffalo’s last six games played without their star corner.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9 catches, 122 yards, TD (10 targets)
- Amari Cooper: 8 catches, 113 yards, 2 TD (12 targets)
- Justin Jefferson: 10 catches, 193 yards, TD (16 targets)
- Garrett Wilson: 8 catches, 92 yards (9 targets)
- Romeo Doubs: 4 catches, 62 yards, TD (7 targets)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 5 catches, 113 yards, TD (5 targets)
Calvin Ridley was averaging 8.7 targets per game through three weeks prior to drawing a shadow from A.J. Terrell last week that prevented Trevor Lawrence from tempting fate (two targets). Assuming he sees 7 to 10 looks in this game, Ridley backers could be printing money as they enjoy their morning coffee.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Katz: This is an outrageous total for Rhamondre Stevenson, one of the least efficient running backs in the league.
Through four games, Stevenson is averaging a paltry 2.73 yards per carry. He’s gone over this number just once, and it took him 19 carries to just barely get there.
This week, the New England Patriots get a New Orleans Saints defense allowing just 3.6 ypc and has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards this season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Katz: Here are JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving totals this season: 33, 28, five, 14. Not only is he not producing, but his role is decreasing every week.
Last week, Smith-Schuster ran a season-low 13 routes, as his snap share dipped below 50%. It’s only a matter of time before Demario Douglas usurps him on New England’s depth chart.
It’s completely over for Smith-Schuster. If I were to bet on whether he’s even in the NFL next year, I would bet no. This might be the last week we even get a line on JuJu.
Breece Hall Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: There is no chance any of you can get this line by now. For that, I apologize. Everyone is on Breece Hall this week after Robert Saleh’s comments about the training wheels coming off.
Typically, when something is this obvious and this heavily bet, it doesn’t work out. I’m rolling the dice that the whole world is just right on this one.
The Denver Broncos are allowing a whopping 5.8 ypc. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards in the league — by far.
Despite being clearly less than 100%, Hall is still somehow averaging 6.6 ypc. Last week, he got to 56 yards on just six carries. If he’s truly about to be unleashed, that should mean 10+ carries. Against this defense, I’m confident 10 is enough for Hall to sail past this number.
Zach Wilson Under 204.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Piggybacking off the Hall play, I’m not buying that Zach Wilson suddenly figured it out. The Broncos can’t stop the run. As a result, I expect the New York Jets to lean on Hall, which will limit what Wilson has to do through the air.
For as well as Wilson played last week, it’s not as if the Jets suddenly want to be a pass-first team and rely heavily on his arm and decision-making. Absent multiple splash plays, or the Jets falling way behind, Wilson should stay below 200 passing yards, as he did each of the first three weeks of the season.
Miles Sanders Under 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: It has been a steady decline for Miles Sanders in performance this season. After carrying the ball 18 times for 72 yards in Week 1, Sanders’ ypc is now down to 2.9 after three dismal showings.
Over his past two games, Sanders has run for 24 and 19 yards, respectively. Additionally, Chuba Hubbard’s role has been increasing. He outsnapped Sanders for the first time all season last week, pushing Sanders below the 50% mark.
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This week, the Carolina Panthers have a road date as heavy underdogs against the Detroit Lions. Not only should game script work against them, forcing them to throw more, but when they do run, they aren’t likely to get very far.
The Lions allow just 2.9 ypc and have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards on the season. Even if Sanders sees 10-12 carries, I still don’t think he gets there.
Gus Edwards Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Katz: Am I getting suckered here? Why is this line so low? Gus Edwards has gone over this number in each of his last three games. Last week, he operated as the clear lead back playing 69% of the snaps.
This week, the Baltimore Ravens get a Pittsburgh Steelers defense allowing 4.9 ypc and the second-most rushing yards on the season. We ride the Gus Bus this week.
James Conner Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: Last week marked the first time all season that James Conner failed to reach 60 rushing yards after doing so in each of the first three weeks.
Conner has been remarkably efficient this season, averaging 5.1 ypc. The only reason he didn’t reach 60 yards last week was because game script limited him to just 11 carries. His previous low was 14.
This week, the Arizona Cardinals are only field-goal underdogs at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. Given how poorly the Bengals are playing, game script is unlikely to get away from them, which should allow Arizona to feed Conner 14+ carries.
Cincinnati has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards this season and are allowing 4.9 ypc to opposing running backs. This is a great spot for Conner to once again crush it on the ground.
Joe Mixon Under 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Joe Mixon has actually played quite well this season, which is a surprise given how anemic the Bengals have been offensively. He’s averaging a respectable 4.1 ypc but has yet to reach 70 rushing yards in a single game.
This isn’t really a full fade of Mixon. Seventy rushing yards is just a lot, and I don’t think he will see the volume he needs to get there.
The Cardinals are much more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. If the Bengals have any hope of turning their season around, Joe Burrow needs to get going. Look for Arizona to make Burrow beat them, limiting what Mixon can do on the ground.
Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125 at PointsBet)
Katz: I had been eyeing up this prop all week, but when the lines first dropped, the juice was just too much. Thankfully, PointsBet was kind enough to give us a favorable enough line.
As we well know, the Lions actually have two different starting quarterbacks. Last week, we hit on Jared Goff under 1.5 passing touchdowns because they started Road Goff. This week, we get Home Goff.
Home Goff has thrown at least two touchdowns in 13 of his last 15 starts. The odds are in our favor that he does it again.
Wan’Dale Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (+110 on DraftKings)
Katz: I’m kicking myself for not taking Wan’Dale Robinson over 2.5 receptions on Monday night. Now, I hope I’m not falling into the trap of chasing last week’s production.
Fortunately, we’re getting plus odds on Robinson to merely catch four passes, something he has done in both of his games this season.
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Last week, Robinson saw his snap share shoot up to 64%. He’s already taken the primary slot receiver role from Parris Campbell. Robinson is probably the most talented receiver on the team, and it wouldn’t shock me if his role grew even more this week.
The New York Giants should be trailing and, thus, throwing to keep pace with the Miami Dolphins’ explosive offense. Since Daniel Jones is incapable of pushing the ball downfield — in part because the Giants’ offensive line can’t block anyone — look for more short passes to Robinson.
Kyren Williams Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Katz: The sportsbooks appear to be reacting quite heavily to Kyren Williams running for over 100 yards against the Colts last week. Prior to last week, Williams’ rushing totals were 52, 52, and 38, respectively. He’s not exactly an efficient runner.
Williams is neither fast nor explosive. Last week, he saw his snap share drop to 72% as the Rams mixed in Ronnie Rivers more.
This week, Los Angeles gets a Philadelphia Eagles defense allowing just 2.9 ypc to running backs. They’ve allowed the third-fewest rushing yards on the season. Look for another 14-52 type of game for Williams.
Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120 on DraftKings)
Soppe: In terms of 2023 growth, the Eagles are blitzing less and pressuring more. That’ll work nicely against a statue quarterback who doesn’t have an explosive run game to support him.
Matthew Stafford has had one multi-TD effort since the middle of September … 2022. The Eagles are an elite time-of-possession team, and if they succeed in limiting the possession count, Stafford will need to be more efficient than anything the first month suggests he’s capable of.