Week 15 sees the return of Saturday NFL games for the first time in the 2023 season. With three games back-to-back-to-back today, there is plenty for us to get our teeth into from a betting aspect. In this article, we will look at which player props we like the best across the three games.
Whether you are looking to bet singles or put together a parlay across the day’s action, you will find our best bets for the likes of Tee Higgins, Zack Moss, Sam LaPorta, and others below.
NFL Player Props (Saturday Games):
T.J. Hockenson Over 5.5 Receptions (+105 at ESPN BET)
Brian Blewis: Justin Jefferson is expected to play, which could take away some opportunities for T.J. Hockenson, but I’m still expecting him to be heavily involved in the offense today.
With Nick Mullens making his first start in two years, he’s going to want to rely heavily on his security blanket. And for his career, Mullens has relied heavily on his tight ends.
In limited action last week, four of his 13 pass attempts went to Hockenson, and when Mullens was the 49ers’ quarterback, George Kittle averaged 6.5 receptions and 100 yards per game.
It also helps that Hockenson will be going against a Bengals defense that has struggled to defend tight ends this season, having allowed the most receptions and yards to the position.
Tee Higgins 60+ Receiving Yards (+235 at DraftKings)
Kyle Soppe: We all know that the Vikings love to blitz, which leaves their corners on an island at times. Since the beginning of November, that defensive game plan has resulted in their opponents being ultra-accurate when targeting secondary options in the passing game.
In my opinion, that tracks. They can’t top everything, and if Minnesota is going to continue to blitz, they’re going to try to limit the opposing WR1 and take their chances.
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Over that stretch, the primary secondary option has caught 28 of 32 targets (87.5%, the players included: Jakobi Meyers, Cole Kmet, Alvin Kamara, Jerry Jeudy, and Kyle Pitts). If we think Browning will be efficient when throwing Higgins’ way, that opens everything up!
The Vikings have the second-highest opponent completion percentage this season (69.7%), a testament to their blitz-heavy scheme leaving receivers in advantageous spots. Building on that thought, those five players mentioned above caught an average of 5.6 passes per game. With Higgins averaging 13.6 yards per catch this season, clearing 60 yards is a reasonable thought.
Jake Browning Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-135 at DraftKings)
Jason Katz: I underestimated Jake Browning. He’s been far more competent than I ever could’ve imagined. But he’s also severely overperformed.
Against the Colts, 73% of Browning’s passing yards were from yards after the catch. He benefited greatly from a brilliant game plan and some well-timed screens to Chase Brown and Joe Mixon.
This is a prime spot for Browning to come crashing back to reality. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores has completely revamped this defense on the fly, turning it into a unit opposing QBs don’t want to face.
The Vikings haven’t allowed a passing touchdown in two straight games and have only allowed multiple passing touchdowns in one of their past eight games. I don’t think Browning throws a single one in this game.
Zack Moss Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: How do the Colts produce? On the ground. They are above league average in rush rate over expectation this season, and opponents facing the Steelers are also running at a rate that exceeds what you’d expect, given the flow of games.
Zack Moss’ production over the past two weeks has been tepid at best, but his role has been Christian McCaffrey-level strong:
Zack Moss last two weeks:
* 121-of-132 snaps (92%)
* 32-of-35 RB carries (91%)
* 63 routes on 90 Minshew dropbacks (70%)
* 11 targets for a 14% share
* 9 carries inside the 10-yard line
* 14.3 total fantasy points— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 11, 2023
In his five featured games this season when the Colts are not blown out, Moss has reached 18 carries all five times (20.6 carries per game). He’s shown some hard running at times this season, but if we assign him merely what the Steelers allow on average (4.2 YPC), we are projecting 75.6 rushing yards as a low-end total if he gets to 18 carries.
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 6.5 Receptions (-130 at FanDuel)
Blewis: This might seem like a chalky pick, but I’m having a difficult time passing it up. Michael Pittman Jr. has had at least seven receptions in six games in a row and in all but three games this season.
For the season, only A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, and Garrett Wilson have a higher target share than Pittman. Considering I like this to be a close game, with neither team in a comfortable positive game script to grind the clock out in the fourth quarter, I would be surprised if this doesn’t hit.
Sam LaPorta Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: For as great as Sam LaPorta has been, he’s only gone over this number once in the past five weeks. Still, matchups matter, and this is a good one.
The Broncos allow 69 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the second most in the league (27.3% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to the position).
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The Lions are in for a big-time rebound performance, and the way to move the ball on the Broncos through the air is via the tight end. It should be a big night for the rookie.
Jared Goff Under 0.5 Interceptions (-125 at FanDuel)
Kyle Soppe: Over their past 10 home games, the Lions have averaged 31.2 points per game. Usually, I take home/road splits with a grain of salt, but there’s no denying that the indoor nature of Ford Field is comforting to Jared Goff:
- 2022: 23 TDs against three INTs on 319 attempts at home
- 2023: CMP% is 5.2 percentage points higher at home
Joe Flacco ruined the “elite” word for quarterback evaluation, but Goff is certainly trending in that direction when he plays in front of the Detroit faithful.
This season, Goff leads active/qualified quarterbacks in on-target rate (81.4%), and I like that to continue against a Broncos defense that creates pressure at the seventh-lowest rate. The Lions ranking second in rush rate over expectation also lines up nicely for a clean sheet from Goff, as their role as a favorite suggests that a running script down the stretch is likely.
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