Today’s slate features a quite a few backup quarterbacks and games with very low totals, so how should that impact your approach for your NFL player props? Let’s take a look at our favorite player prop bets for today, with picks for notable players such as Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson, and DJ Moore.
NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 14
Jordan Addison Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: There is a lot of overreacting going on with Jordan Addison here. Between Josh Dobbs being on a short leash, Justin Jefferson returning, and Addison’s inconsistent play, we now have our lowest receiving line on him since early in the season.
Even with Jefferson back, it’s not as if Addison isn’t going to see targets. Addison has gone over this number in 10 of 12 games this season. I know we haven’t seen a game featuring both Addison and Jefferson with Dobbs this season, but there should be enough targets to go around for Addison to at least post a 3-40 line.
Rashod Bateman Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: I am not sure why Rashod Bateman’s line continues to be this low. While he hasn’t caught more than two passes in a game since Week 2, Bateman only needs two catches to sail past this number, something he’s done in five of his last six games.
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Bateman’s snap share has been increasing lately, topping out at 80% prior to the Ravens’ bye. Over his last three games, he’s seen his three highest snap shares. His routes run over the past four games have been 22, 23, 24, 25, even with a paltry 16.1% targets-per-route-run rate. A tally of 20+ routes is enough for Bateman to reach 20 yards against a Rams defense that has been more vulnerable against the pass than the run recently.
Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (-110 at BetMGM)
Katz: “It can’t possibly get worse than Zach Wilson.” – Jets fans. “Hold my beer.” – Tim Boyle.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Zach is back! And that’s a good thing! While Wilson is not going to suddenly be a competent NFL quarterback, he is going to hyper-target his namesake.
Garrett has had at least five receptions in eight of his 12 games this season. Prior to Zach getting benched, Garrett had gotten there in five consecutive games.
The Texans only allow 11.6 receptions per game to wide receivers, but Wilson is featured enough to be responsible for at least half of those.
Josh Downs Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: We missed last week on Josh Downs’ receptions over. Often, when I miss on things like this, I am a week early. Michael Pittman Jr. saw 16 targets last week. While he’s the clear alpha, I have a hard time believing that will happen again. Even a drop of 4-5 targets would open the door for Downs to have a strong day.
The Bengals allow 168 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. In games where Downs sees at least six targets, he’s gone over this number five out of seven times. Look for Downs to be much more involved this week.
Stefon Diggs Under 6.5 Receptions (-118 at FanDuel)
Katz: Since joining the Buffalo Bills, Stefon Diggs has played six games against the Chiefs, including the playoffs. He’s had more than six receptions in just one of them.
While what happened in 2020 and 2021 doesn’t really matter because the teams are different, it is telling that the Chiefs made it a point to shut Diggs down as best as they could, as those defenses were far worse than the one they are sending out there this season.
The 2023 Chiefs defense is easily the best they’ve had during Patrick Mahomes’ tenure. They have been erasing opposing WR1s and specifically dominating outside receivers. The Bills may try and force Diggs the ball, but I don’t think it will work.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 69.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: There’s definitely an air of uncertainty regarding how the Chiefs will handle their backfield. This line seems to not be accounting for that, as it has firmly decided Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the clear top RB.
Color me skeptical that a guy who lost his job to a seventh-round rookie last year and was inactive in the Super Bowl is suddenly going to not only see enough work to reach 70 total yards, but also be efficient enough to get there.
DJ Moore 5+ Receptions/Drake London 4+ Receptions Parlay (+162 at Caesars)
Katz: These are two receptions lines I really like, but I don’t want to pay the juice. So, let’s parlay them and hope we don’t go 1-1.
DJ Moore has been playing his best football lately, and the Bears have been forcing him the ball. Moore has at least five receptions in three straight games, including one against these very Lions, who are seeing the collapse of their pass defense.
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Drake London was predictably a nonfactor against the Jets and Sauce Gardner last week in a game where the Falcons didn’t have to throw the ball. That should be different this week against the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense that London posted six catches for 54 yards against in a Week 7 win.
I think the Bucs get their win back here, forcing the Falcons to throw a bit more than they’d want to. London dominates first-target reads in this passing game. He should see a minimum of eight targets, which should be enough to get him to at least five receptions. We only need four.
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Katz: I feel like the only reason Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush line continues to be this low is because of the overall volume concerns. Fewer chances to run the ball = fewer chances at breaking off a long one.
Gibbs just finds a way, though. He’s played in 10 games this season and has a run of 13+ yards in eight of them.
The Bears have been stout against the run, but Gibbs is on another level of explosiveness. This is a bet I’m willing to take every week, as it will hit more than it doesn’t.
Josh Dobbs Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: In four starts with the Vikings, Josh Dobbs has gone over this number just once. He has yet to attempt more than 34 passes in a game with Minnesota.
The Raiders have been sneaky solid against the pass this season, allowing just 229 passing yards per game. They’ve also massively struggled against the run.
Look for the Vikings to implement a run-heavy game plan against the Raiders, in an effort to hide Dobbs. Between Dobbs’ recently struggles, the run funnel opponent, and the risk of an in-game benching, this under jumps out at me.
Courtland Sutton Longest Reception Over 21.5 yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Russell Wilson certainly hasn’t been shy about throwing it deep and hoping for the best. Sutton has a slightly higher aDOT than Jerry Jeudy this season and has surpassed this number in each of his past six games.
I like that trend to continue in this spot against a bottom-five pass defense in most metrics that also blitzes at a top-10 rate, thus leaving Sutton in single coverage down the field. He should get multiple deep looks that can pay this prop off, not to mention the potential for him to turn a shorter pass into a longer gain.
I’m comfortable swallowing some juice in this specific matchup.
Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions (+105 at DraftKings)
Soppe: The Bills have plenty of defensive flaws, and opponents have been exploiting them via the short pass (lowest opponent aDOT this season). That, friends, is gold against a developing WR1 in Rashee Rice, who leads all qualified receivers in yards after the catch per reception this season.
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His playing time is gradually inching up, and with an 80% catch rate this season, each target carries with it high catch equity.
Geno Smith Longest Completion Under 36.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Soppe: I understand where this number comes from, given the success Smith has had in finding a big play weekly, but not every defense is built like this 49ers unit.
With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Smith’s big plays come more over the top of opposing defenses. Well, San Francisco rarely blitzes (sit back in coverage) and carries an elite tackle percentage, so how does he get there?
I like the 49ers to control this game much like they did the first time around (35+ minutes of possession), something that keeps Smith’s number of bites at this apple under control as well.
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