Today we have an 11-game NFL slate, which means plenty of player props to choose from. But which player prop bets should you be targeting today? We break it down below, with our favorite NFL player props for today.
Week 12 NFL Player Prop Bets
Jaylen Warren Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This might be buying too high on Jaylen Warren after having his best game of the season three weeks in a row, but this could also be a sign of him having a second-half breakout.
Warren has run for an average of 106 yards over his last three games, and we could see an uptick in playing time with Matt Canada gone. Plus, he is going against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game and the second-most YPC.
D’Andre Swift Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: You might be unfamiliar with the Philadelphia Eagles’ starting RG, Cam Jurgens, but he has been immensely important to Philly’s rushing attack this season. Per Outside DiBirds on X (formerly known as Twitter), the Eagles have averaged two yards more per carry (5.45 YPC) in the 5.5 games with Jurgens in the lineup this season than without (3.19 YPC).
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As the RB1 in Philadelphia, the biggest beneficiary of Jurgens’ return is obviously D’Andre Swift, and this was on full display last week when Swift ran for 76 yards on 6.3 YPC with the Eagles’ starting interior lineman back.
Today, he gets a matchup against a Buffalo Bills team that has allowed the fourth-most yards per carry and the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season.
Kenny Pickett Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: I’m beginning to think Kenny Pickett might not be very good (that’s sarcasm, folks). Over his last four games, the most passing yards he’s thrown for in a game has been 160. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been running their offense through Warren and Najee Harris.
This week, I expect the exact same thing against a Bengals offense without Joe Burrow. The Bengals allow 4.6 yards per carry to running backs. They are a massive run funnel. The Steelers should be content to just pound the ball all game, limiting Pickett’s pass attempts and keeping him well short of this number.
Joe Mixon Under 87.5 Rush+ Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Katz: I feel like this line hasn’t fully taken into account the impact playing with a backup quarterback has on running backs. Perhaps Jake Browning will surprise us and resemble a competent NFL quarterback. I doubt it.
The Bengals can try and lean on Joe Mixon all they want. The Steelers know it’s coming. They are going to bottle up Mixon and make Browning beat them. Will Browning be able to sustain drives long enough for Mixon to continue racking up touches and yards? I’m betting against it.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson under 176.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: My jaw almost dropped when I saw this line. Last week, we just barely cashed on Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s passing yards under by 2.5 yards. That was against a weaker Steelers pass defense than the Denver Broncos have in a game where he attempted 43 passes.
This week, DTR gets a much tougher opponent, and he is not going to throw more than 40 passes. The Broncos have been much improved against the pass over the past month. Meanwhile, they still struggle against the run. We should see a lot of Jerome Ford and not a lot of Thompson-Robinson throwing the ball. With nine more yards to play with than last week, I love this under.
Russell Wilson Under 196.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Sticking with the same game, I have a hard time seeing Russell Wilson get to 197 passing yards. Last week he threw for 259 because the Broncos were in comeback mode.
Before last week, Wilson hadn’t topped 196 passing yards since Week 4. Now, he’s being asked to do it against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL? I don’t think so.
The Cleveland Browns allow a paltry 166 passing yards per game. It is the fewest in the league by a whole 11 yards. With the Broncos content with running the ball, and only throwing when they have to, and with DTR not being good enough to force the Broncos to chuck, Wilson should stay comfortably under.
Courtland Sutton Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Courtland Sutton has been great for fantasy football because he’s been scoring a bunch of touchdowns, but he lowkey has not been targeted all that much.
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Sutton has seen six targets or fewer in six of his last seven games. He’s topped this number five times, including in the last two and three of his last four. But I’m confident he stays under this week because of the opponent.
The Browns allow 118 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the third-fewest in the league. With the Broncos content to just run the ball, Sutton will need a fluke splash play to go over. I’m willing to bet against that.
Jonathan Taylor Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Jonathan Taylor is definitely back. He’s the clear lead back and dominating carries, completely relegating Zack Moss to a pure backup. But this is a really high number against a good run defense.
Since returning, Taylor has gone over 75 rushing yards in just one of his six games played. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow 73 rushing yards per game to running backs, the eighth-fewest in the league. Backs average just 3.8 YPC against them. On the season, Taylor is averaging 3.8 YPC.
The way to beat the Bucs is through the air. Taylor can easily see 20 carries and still not get over this number.
Derrick Henry Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: It has been a rough two weeks for Derrick Henry. Over his past two games, he’s run for 38 and 24 yards. But in those games, the Tennessee Titans fell behind early. When the Titans are trailing, they run less and use Tyjae Spears more. Methinks that won’t be the case this week.
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Things should be much smoother for the Titans’ offense at home against the lowly Carolina Panthers. The simple fact that the Titans should have a neutral to positive game script against the worst team in the league is reason enough to like Henry this week. It’s a bonus that the Panthers are the second-worst run defense in the league, allowing 4.6 YPC and 114 yards per game to running backs.
In the Titans’ three wins this season, Henry has run for 80, 122, and 101 yards. I think the Titans win this week. If you want to ladder Henry at 75+, 100+, 125+, and even 150+, I don’t hate that idea either.
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (+105 at DraftKings)
Katz: For the past two years, I had a rule: Any time Derrick Henry’s touchdown odds were -110 or better, it was an auto bet. Of course, with the Titans’ offensive situation much different this year, I lifted that rule.
We already covered all the reasons I like Henry this week. I am also very confident he will find the end zone. This opened at -110 and somehow moved to +105. That’s a gift. Take it.
Tyler Allgeier Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: This line is just wrong. Tyler Allgeier’s rushing line is around 35.5 everywhere else. He hasn’t topped 40 rushing yards in three straight games and has done it only twice in his last eight.
Head coach Arthur Smith has been talking up Bijan Robinson more and more, and the rookie may see an even bigger workload following the bye.
Allgeier played a season-low 27% of the snaps two weeks ago. The Saints allow 3.9 YPC to running backs. It’s hard to imagine Allgeier seeing enough volume to go over.
A.T. Perry Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: This line seems awfully low for the guy who is going to operate as the New Orleans Saints WR2 opposite Chris Olave. I have no doubt Rashid Shaheed is likely to see more targets than A.T. Perry, but it will be Perry out there in two-receiver sets.
Perry caught two passes for 38 yards two weeks ago. That’s all it will take for him to go over this line. He can do it on one reception. Given how frequently he will be on the field and running routes, this is an over we have to chase.
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