When it comes to NFL player props, there are always plenty of different options to choose from heading into the season. Let’s take a look at the top player prop selections and betting odds from PFN Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting Director Brian Blewis, and Betting & Fantasy Analysts Jason Katz and Kyle Soppe.
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NFL Player Props Predictions
Wingo: Joe Burrow over 4,425.5 pass yards (-115 at Caesars)
While Patrick Mahomes is always where we begin with QB player props, I’m really interested in Joe Burrow’s numbers this year. This could be the last season the Cincinnati Bengals’ core — as we know it — is together.
Big contracts are coming for both Burrow and Chase fairly soon. This may be the Bengals’ last great run with all those weapons on offense. Burrow’s passing yards could be spectacular this year.
Wingo: Justin Fields to lead the NFL in QB rushing yards (+175 at Caesars)
I love the idea of Justin Fields once again leading the league in QB rushing yards, and I am not sure anyone else is a realistic threat to him having that crown, barring injuries.
Bearman: Tua Tagovailoa over 3,800.5 passing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
In parts of 13 games last year, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 3,548 yards, which is 273 yards per game in his first year in Mike McDaniel’s offense. Add in one more game — just one — and you are already over the 3,800-yard mark needed for this prop. Can Tua stay healthy for 14 games? The Miami Dolphins’ season is counting on it, so if he does, he should have no problem hitting this mark.
And I used the word “parts” in italics because he was knocked out of three contests and still hit 3,548 yards. It’s a risk with his past health history, but so is betting in general.
Bearman: Cooper Kupp to lead NFL in receptions (+500 at DraftKings)
In 2021, Cooper Kupp averaged 8.5 receptions a game en route to breaking the NFL single-season record with 145 total and winning Offensive Player of the Year. Last year for an encore, he was averaging nine catches a game before getting injured. At that pace, he could’ve had 159 catches. He’s the No. 1 and 2 weapon on the Los Angeles Rams, and if healthy, he will lead the league in receptions again.
Katz: Chase Claypool under 575.5 receiving yards (-115 at Ceasars)
This is easily my favorite season-long prop. Chase Claypool was an outright disaster for the Chicago Bears last season. He averaged a mere 20 receiving yards per game. That projects to just 340 over a full season, and he was supposed to be their WR2 opposite Darnell Mooney last year.
Now, they’ve added DJ Moore, and there are reports that Claypool wasn’t really trying very hard in training camp, which should be a shock to absolutely no one. Perhaps Claypool has the talent to be an NFL-caliber wide receiver, but he doesn’t appear to have the work ethic. I don’t think he even gets to half this number.
Katz: Skyy Moore under 550.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
Don’t let OTA hype and coach speak fool you; Skyy Moore is probably never going to be anything at the NFL level. As a rookie, he managed just 22 catches for 250 yards while playing with a quarterback who threw for 5,250 yards. Moore could not earn targets or climb a depth chart featuring the likes of Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Watson.
The team was so enamored with Moore that they traded for Kadarius Toney just to have someone else they could put on the field instead of him. I have zero confidence in Moore and don’t think he comes close to this number.
Katz: Rachaad White under 800.5 rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)
There really aren’t many positive things to say about Rachaad White’s rookie season. He was one of the least efficient backs in the entire league, averaging 3.7 ypc, and generated a paltry 2.54 yards created per touch. Just 3.1% of his carries went for 15+ yards, 44th in the league.
All of the “positives” about White come from his ability as a receiver. That may help his fantasy value, but receiving proficiency will contribute nothing to White exceeding 800 rushing yards.
Katz: Mike Evans under 70.5 receptions (-110 at DraftKings)
Tom Brady attempted over 1,450 passes over the past two seasons, but Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask are not getting anywhere near that number. Mike Evans has never been a high-reception number guy. He’s caught between 68 and 77 balls in all but two seasons.
Evans is now 30 years old, and he will see lower-quality targets than he’s used to. The overall target volume is undoubtedly going down. Plus, if Evans misses a game or two, that almost guarantees this hits.
Katz: Juwan Johnson over 3.5 touchdowns (-110 at DraftKings)
Last season, Juwan Johnson scored seven touchdowns on just a 72.8% snap share. This year, he got a QB upgrade and a new contract, locking him in as the New Orleans Saints’ primary tight end.
At 6’4″, he is a massive red-zone option, and he saw 11 targets in the red zone last season. Johnson even scored four touchdowns in 2021 on just 22 targets. This is what he does. You’re telling me I only need him to get four all season? Sign me up.
Katz: Aaron Jones under 5.5 rushing touchdowns (-130 at DraftKings)
This is an awfully high number for a running back who is going to see under 10% of his team’s goal-line carries. Sure, if AJ Dillon gets hurt, this bet is probably cooked, but if he doesn’t, the only way Jones has any prayer of reaching six rushing scores is if he busts some long touchdown runs.
Jones scored seven touchdowns last season and 10 the year before. Of his 17 touchdowns over the past two seasons, 11 have come via the air. Last season, Jones had three carries inside the 5-yard line all season. He hasn’t come close to six rushing touchdowns since he ran for nine back in 2020. He’s 29 years old. Aaron Rodgers is gone. I love this bet.
Katz: Alec Pierce under 550.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
Last season, Alec Pierce played in 16 games and caught 41 passes for 593 yards. He had a solid rookie year. While natural sophomore progression is normal, there are a couple of reasons why Pierce is more likely to regress in terms of production.
First, the Colts are starting a rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson, who will take dozens of targets away from his receivers due to his running ability. Second, the Indianapolis Colts spent a day two pick on Josh Downs, another wide receiver to compete with Pierce as the WR2 behind Michael Pittman Jr. Third, this projects to be a run-heavy team with a lot of RPOs, and those RPOs will likely result in passes to Pittman.
Pierce will need to be efficient on downfield throws to surpass this number. He will also need to stay healthy. I don’t see both happening.
Blewis: Dallas Goedert over 675.5 receiving yards (-130 at DraftKings)
This was my best bet for the Philadelphia Eagles this season. Goedert went over this total in 12 games last year, missing five contests due to a flukey injury on an uncalled-for facemask tackle against the Washington Commanders.
The Eagles don’t really spread the ball around much beyond their top three targets, and while D’Andre Swift is expected to be involved in the passing game, I don’t expect it to be to the point where he’s competing with Goedert for targets behind DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown.
Blewis: Christian Watson under 5.5 receiving touchdowns (-134 at FanDuel)
Christian Watson was a surprise standout as a rookie last year in Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers’ No. 1 option. Even despite Rodgers having a down year for his standards, I’m expecting Jordan Love to be a downgrade at quarterback. With a young and inexperienced signal-caller, the Packers may lean more on their running game and perhaps the best backfield in the NFL in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Watson is also due for some massive regression in receiving touchdowns this upcoming season. All seven of his TDs last year came in a four-week stretch, including one game with three scores vs. the Dallas Cowboys and a garbage-time TD against the Eagles. Nearly 11% of his targets went for touchdowns last season, a number that I would be shocked to see him come even semi-close to replicating in 2023.
Blewis: Alexander Mattison under 900.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
This number is inflated because of Dalvin Cook’s departure and the lack of perceived depth behind Alexander Mattison at running back, as it seems like he will be the bell cow in Minnesota this season.
Over the last two seasons, Mattison hasn’t been a very efficient running back, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. For him to go over his yardage prop at his 2021-2022 yards per carry average, he would need more than 243 carries this season. That number of carries would have been the 10th-most in the NFL last season. Not to mention, he plays on a Vikings team that ranked fifth in pass rate last season and should be playing from behind in far more games in 2023.
Soppe: Dameon Pierce under 900.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
As a rookie, Dameon Pierce inched past this number just before an ankle injury ended his stellar season in Week 14. Pierce came out of the gates strong with the Houston Texans overachieving (sure, they were just 1-3-1 through five games, but they were 3-1-1 ATS). But those competitive games faded with time, and Pierce’s efficiency went with them (3.0 yards per carry over his final four games).
The Texans led for just 16.3% of their offensive snaps last season and are, again, going to be a bad football team. That means efficiency will be a requirement for Pierce to go over this number, and I’m not optimistic that a team starting a rookie quarterback under a rookie center creates a ton of running lanes.
Even when they do, there’s a much better chance this season that it’s not Pierce taking advantage. Through 14 weeks last season, the rookie accounted for 85.6% of Houston’s RB carries, a number that isn’t even remotely possible this season with the addition of Devin Singletary.
I’m in full fade mode of Pierce when it comes to fantasy football, and I have a ton of outs to win this bet — injury, committee, and game script, to name a few.
NFL Player Props Longshots
Wingo: Chris Jones leads the NFL in sacks (+2500 at Caesars)
Here’s a longshot for season sacks … Chris Jones. The Chiefs’ versatile DL is playing better than ever heading into this season. Jones had 15.5 last season despite lining up all over the field.
Bearman: New Orleans Saints are the last undefeated team (+3000 at DraftKings)
I keep looking at the word “longshot” every time I think about this one, so keep that in mind. As I noted in our win totals column, the Saints have a rather comfortable schedule and one that starts out extremely easy: Tennessee at home, road games at Carolina and Green Bay, and then home vs. Tampa Bay before going to New England and Houston.
Will they win them all? Probably not, but at 30-1, it’s worth a shot at a 5-0 start, hoping everyone else has one loss. After those five games, they play Jacksonville, Indy, and Chicago — not a tough slate. New Orleans isn’t the best team but should win the division with that schedule.
Katz: Bijan Robinson to lead the NFL in rushing (+1400 at DraftKings)
Way back in 2016, a rookie by the name of Ezekiel Elliott led the NFL in rushing with 1,631 yards. Of course, Derrick Henry wasn’t a thing yet. And he poses the biggest threat to Bijan Robinson. But the rookie has all the talent to do it and couldn’t ask for a better landing spot.
The Atlanta Falcons ran the ball 56% of the time in a neutral game script last season and 51% of the time in a negative game script. They want to run no matter what. Robinson has a real shot at 300+ carries this season. If he can stay healthy and average over 5.0 ypc, that will be enough to put him in the running.
A lot can happen over a full season. A combination of health for him and a couple of games missed from the other leading candidates is all it would take for the rookie to secure the rushing title. At these odds, sign me up.
Katz: Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Chiefs, Lions, Saints, and 49ers to win their divisions parlay (+12859 at DraftKings)
These odds probably shifted a bit since I bet this a couple of months ago, but if you want a super-mega “definitely not going to happen” longshot, here you go. I used a free bet on this just for the fun of it, but it’s probably more reasonable than your typical +12000 bet.
All of these teams project to win their respective divisions. Of course, it rarely plays out that way. But we’re talking about extremely long odds for seven teams that, individually, are expected to win their respective divisions.
Blewis: Amon-Ra St. Brown to lead the NFL in receptions (+1800 at DraftKings)
When comparing Amon-Ra St. Brown to the rest of the top 10 favorites to lead the NFL in receptions this upcoming season, none of them have less competition for target share than him.
At wide receiver in Detroit, Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six games of the season, forcing 33-year-old Marvin Jones Jr. to fill in as the other starter. The next two guys that are expected to be targeted the most in the passing game are two rookies in RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta. With 106 receptions last season, St. Brown is easily Goff’s favorite and most talented weapon.
Soppe: Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards (+700 at DraftKings)
Of the top five options on the odds board, Justin Herbert is the only quarterback without a real pounder in his backfield, and that allows him to pile up the “cheap” passing yards.
It makes sense logically, and the numbers support it. Herbert threw a league-high 91 passes last season when the Los Angeles Chargers were three yards or closer to moving the chains.
Los Angeles was second in pass rate last season and will be the favorite to lead the league this year with Tom Brady no longer leading the Buccaneers. Herbert is protected by an above-average offensive line, and the team even added another downfield threat for good measure in the form of 6’3” Quentin Johnston.
With the drafting of a receiver like that, you have to assume that Herbert isn’t ranking 31st in aDOT this season. And the deeper the throw, the greater the yardage upside.
It’s pretty clear that the Bolts trust their ability to pass the ball. And considering they’ve had a league-high 19 games decided by a field goal or less during the Herbert era, I’m happy to bank on them throwing in those close game spots.
Herbert was banged up last season … and he threw for 4,739 yards. With one missed game on his résumé, the sheer volume of attempts should put Herbert in this race. Additionally, the limitations of L.A.’s ground game make him a great value.
