NFL Week 6 Picks: Opening betting lines, best bets, and early action

Last week felt like it took forever to finally come to an end. With football being played right up until Tuesday night, the Pro Football Network betting team had the chance to really break into the opening betting lines and odds. Some of the numbers were surprising, while a handful remained off the board. Here are some of our early NFL Week 6 picks and best bets based on those opening betting lines.

Continue to check back as we update this article with more of our early looks.

NFL Week 6 Picks: Is there any value in the opening betting lines and odds?

After an exciting slate of games on Sunday, bettors eagerly awaited some of the Week 6 NFL odds and betting lines. With some significant injuries taking place in Week 5, how would sportsbooks take that into account when setting the opening numbers for Week 6? Well, now we know, and there is value to be had.

Odds taken Oct. 11th from FanDuel and other online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 6 Picks: A battle of the young and the old in Indianapolis

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-9)

This one should be interesting. According to DVOA, the Indianapolis Colts have one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, we just watched the Cleveland Browns offense put up 32 points on them. Although looking at only the box score could be a tad deceiving. It was actually the Browns defense that helped put up a chunk of those points, forcing a safety as well as returning a 47-yard interception for a touchdown off of a terrible Philip Rivers interception.

After giving up that many points, what can be a better confidence boost than coming up against a rookie QB coming off of his worst performance of the year? Joe Burrow and the Bengals looked awful against the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 5 27-3 loss. The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite completed just 19-of-30 passes for 183 yards.

Just looking at the numbers, the Bengals are ranked 19th in offense and 16th in defense while the Colts are 17th in offense and first in defense.

The first thing that jumps out to me here is the way Burrow struggled against the Ravens defense that has been less impressive than usual. They are 17th in defensive rankings, allowing 367.5 yards per game. The Colts have only allowed 236.25 yards per game. That alone has me leaning to the Colts.

While Rivers has looked mediocre at best so far this season, one thing you can always count on is his ability to throw terrible interceptions. The 38-year-old signal-caller has now tallied four touchdowns and five picks for the 3-2 Colts. If the Bengals are going to stay competitive here, they need to get some turnovers. Unfortunately, they rank 22nd in that category, with only four on the season.

This is simply a terrible matchup for Burrow and the Bengals. The Colts aren’t the Super Bowl candidates that some had crowned them early on in the year, but they are a class over the Bengals. Unfortunately, this number opened at -7.5 and is already up to -9. That will not stop me from adding them to the first leg of my NFL Week 6 picks teaser. Getting them to under a field goal eliminates some of the risk that comes with betting on Rivers to cover a big spread.

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

The Eagles are coming off an impressive performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, where they finally found success with their run game. Ultimately, the Steelers offense (specifically the breakout performance of Chase Claypool) was still too much for a beat-up Eagles secondary as the team fell 38-29.

This game was actually closer than the box score indicates, but two crucial Carson Wentz interceptions ultimately ensured the Steelers walked away with the win. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Ravens are coming off an absolute blowout of the Bengals.

This opening line is actually shorter than I expected. Lamar Jackson has continued to look just mediocre in his last two games, but he wasn’t asked to do too much with his defense carrying the game against the Bengals.

This Eagles secondary is bad. Plus, Darius Slay went out with an injury in the fourth quarter this past week. If he doesn’t play against the Ravens, I would like this play even more. The Eagles will try to run the ball to keep Jackson off the field, and even though it was successful against the Bengals, it won’t be against the seventh-ranked defense against the run.

I will add them to my teaser to ensure that a late-game backdoor cover is off the table. If Slay is announced out, I will take them against the spread as well. I also like the over here, as I expect Baltimore to put up at least 30 points.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | Ryan Gosling

Colts (-2.5) and Ravens (-1) 6.5 point teaser -120, 2 units

NFL Week 6 Picks: A battle between “worst team” contenders

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-3)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost four straight games after their stunning opening week upset of the Indianapolis Colts. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, are coming off an early bye week and enter this week’s game the healthiest they’ve been since the season began.

Not only have the Jaguars lost four straight, but they’ve also given up 30+ points and failed to cover the spread in each of those games. While I’m not a huge fan of either team’s head coach, I’ll take Matthew Stafford over Gardner Minshew any day of the week.

Expect a massive effort from Kenny Golladay in this one. I grabbed the Lions at -3 (-125) this morning, although you may have to purchase the hook if the number reaches -3.5 by the time this article publishes.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | Chris Smith

Detroit Lions -3 (-125) 1 unit

Two teams heading in completely opposite directions

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)

Plug your nose. Hold your breath. Close your eyes. This one won’t taste very good. I’m endorsing the Jets at +9.5 in Miami this week against the Dolphins. The Jets are historically bad, we all get that. The real question is whether the Dolphins are good enough to be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone.

Miami put on a show in San Francisco against the 49ers last Sunday, but they haven’t been more than a touchdown favorite in a game since 2016 when Adam Gase was on their sideline. The Jets are not only winless but also 0-5 against the spread and have lost each game by two scores or more.

While Miami should win this game outright, especially with Joe Flacco starting in place of Sam Darnold, covering a nearly double-digit spread is a different beast entirely. Regression to the mean is coming for the Jets despite all the ineptitude from their coaching staff. I’ll gladly take the points (grabbed them at +10.5 [-120] earlier this week) with a divisional underdog in an obvious letdown spot for the Dolphins.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | Chris Smith

New York Jets +10.5 (-120) 1 unit

After indescribable heartbreak, can the Cowboys stay on the winning path?

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

As a Cowboys fan, this part of the article is tough to write. Dallas will be heading into this game with Andy Dalton as their starter after Dak Prescott suffered a terrifying ankle injury this past week. He is done for the year, and many pundits wonder if he will ever play another snap for the Cowboys.

Emotions will be running high for this team heading into Arizona. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field, Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury look to continue their winning ways after defeating the lowly New York Jets with Joe Flacco under center.

It would be easy to say that Arizona should handily win this game playing against a backup QB. However, Dalton has been heralded as the best backup in the league. He is only a few years removed from bringing the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs with arguably only A.J. Green as his primary weapon. Now, he steps into an offense with Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper, and rookie standout CeeDee Lamb.

The problem still remains that this Dallas defense is awful, allowing an average of 36 points per game. Murray tallied 411 total yards and two touchdowns against the Jets, and there is little chance that the Cowboys’ defense will be able to stop him. This game’s total sits at only 53.5, likely because oddsmakers aren’t sure how to line the Cowboys with Dalton under center.

Dalton looked more than capable replacing Dak this week, and both these teams will put up points. Do not be afraid of this total; take the over.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | Ryan Gosling

Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals over 53.5 (-110) 1 unit

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | Chris Smith

Dallas Cowboys +3 (-115) 1 unit

Two overperforming teams face off in the Windy City

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers’ offense has been far better than Chicago’s, averaging 6.2 YPP vs the Bears’ 5.0. Carolina’s defense has been league average up to this point, a far cry from their pre-season expectations. I do think the defense regresses to the mean eventually, but Nick Foles isn’t the one who will make that come to fruition.

Foles has averaged 5.15 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), 28th in the league. Teddy Bridgewater has been far superior, ranking 11th in ANY/A (7.49). Chicago has an advantage in the trenches, but that isn’t enough to sway me off of the significant QB advantage we have.

I’m still not sure what to make of Matt Nagy, but Matt Rhule has performed admirably in his rookie campaign; I’d call the coaching match up a wash at worse. If there are no more -2.5 spreads available, I still like taking a cheap (-105 or +100) -3.

I also like taking an alternate spread, such as Carolina -5.5, at a far cheaper price. Only a few books offer that as of this writing, however, so my plan is to wait to see what else is available.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | James Aguirre

Carolina Panthers -2.5 (-120) for 1.2 units

Three consecutive wins for Carolina without Christian McCaffrey, and they aren’t a bigger favorite than this against the luckiest 4-1 team in NFL history, the Bears. Teddy Bridgewater is playing well, but the revelation is Mike Davis, who is proving a threat both in the running and the passing game, just as McCaffrey did. Davis will be the reason the Panthers make it four in a row.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | George Templeton

Carolina Panthers -3 (+105) for 1 unit

NFL Week 6 Picks: The battle of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

I’ll start off by saying that I agree with this line. If you go by strictly yards per play, this should be a zero point spread. The reason I’m taking the Packers here is for the QB advantage.

Aaron Rodgers has played at an MVP level this season, ranking first in the following metrics: QBR, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, and Net Yards per Attempt. Tom Brady ranks 21st, 15th, and 19th, respectively.

Green Bay’s pass defense will keep the Buccaneers in this game, but I trust Rodgers and LaFleur to execute in late-game situations more than I do senile Tom Brady and Bruce Arians. I like the Packers at anything less than a field goal.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | James Aguirre

Green Bay Packers -1 (-121) for 2.4 units

The battle between two teams with returning stars

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-10)

This game was a question mark to many because we were unsure of who was going to be under center for both of these teams. Well, we now know that Cam Newton will return for the Patriots, and Drew Lock will be back for the Broncos. This is a big deal for both teams, but more so for the Broncos.

Denver has suffered injuries up and down the field, starting in the offseason with the loss of Von Miller. They then lost Lock for a few games and Courtland Sutton for the remainder of the year. Noah Fant and Mark Barron also missed time.

Both of these teams have not played in two+ weeks due to extenuating circumstances, and if we learned anything from Tuesday nights Tennessee and Buffalo game, rest can do wonders.

Before going out with an injury, Lock and the Broncos were quite competitive in their first two games. They lost at home to Tennessee 16-14 and at Pittsburgh 21-16. Those losses do not look so bad now, considering how elite their opponents have gone on to look. Without Lock though, they have really struggled on the offensive end, averaging just 306.8 yards per game (29th) and 92.5 rushing yards (29th).

In the two games Lock has played, he has completed 60.5% of his passes for 236 yards with one TD and a pick.

Defensively, they are allowing 365.3 yards per game (16th), 256.3 passing yards (22nd), and 109 rushing yards (13th). Despite not having Miller, the Broncos have recorded 10 sacks through four games.

On the other side of the ball, Newton has been terrific in the first three games, tossing for 714 yards with two TDs and two picks (68.1%). His ability to run the ball (149 yards, four TDs) has helped energize a mediocre offense. Overall, that offense ranks eighth in total offense (396 YPG) and second in rushing yards per game (179.8).

This battle is going to be decided in the air. If Stephon Gilmore doesn’t suit up for the Patriots, this line might actually come down, which is why I suggest you jump on it now. I am going to side with Denver and the points. Laying double digits with a Patriots team that relies heavily on the run game makes very little sense to me.

The fact that New England runs the ball so often means that they are likely going to milk the clock. Lock and his plethora of offensive weapons should be able to put up enough points to force Cam Newton to have to throw the ball more than he would like. We have seen flashes of greatness from Cam so far, but we have also seen some of what got him cut from the Panthers.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | Ryan Gosling

Denver Broncos +10 (-110) 1 unit

Other Week 6 picks from our analysts

Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens teaser

I am doubling down on the AFC North with this pick after what has been an impressive showing at times from all four teams in the division. Sure the Bengals had an ugly performance in Week 5, but that was their first loss in three games and their first loss in the season by more than five points.

Their opponents this week are the Indianapolis Colts who have been one of the most inconsistent teams offensively all season. The Colts’ best performance was 36 points against the Jets in Week 3, but a large part of that was thanks to the defense causing havoc for Sam Darnold and the Jets.

Equally, their 28-point performance was fueled by a three turnover day for their defense. Outside of those two games, the Colts have topped out at 23 points this season. Even if we assume the Colts can get to 35 this week, by teasing this line up to 14.5, the Bengals would only need to score 21 points.

That is something they have done three times in the last four games, while their defense has only allowed over 30 points once this year. Look for the Bengals to keep this within two touchdowns, especially as we know their young QB, Joe Burrow, will not stop trying until the clock hits zero.

The other part of this teaser involves taking the Ravens down to -1. Outside of their loss to the Chiefs, the Ravens have won all of their games by double-digits. The Eagles remain banged up and have no real receivers to speak of. With the Ravens having a solid, if unspectacular, defense, it should be hard for the Eagles to get much over the 20-25 point range.

Meanwhile, the Ravens have scored 30 points in three of their games this season and only really failed last week because they took their foot off the gas. The Ravens should win this one with ease as the Eagles continue to struggle with injuries across their entire team.

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | Ben Rolfe

Cincinnati Bengals +14.5 & Baltimore Ravens -1 (-115) 2 units

Can the Green Bay Packers continue to role?

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

This was somewhat an easy teaser for me to make given the circumstances. Having watched the Buccaneers and Tom Brady closely recently, I have yet to be convinced this offense cannot get out of its own way. Are they capable of scoring 35 points? Absolutely, we saw it the other week, but they are also killing themselves with penalties and underthrown balls.

The Packers offense can certainly be got at, but in the likes of Jaire Alexander, Adrian Amos, and Darnell Savage, they have talented enough players to pick of Brady at least once in this matchup.

Combine a Packers defense that can be got with the fact that their offense is the best in the league right now, and over 48 points is a fairly simple selection. The Packers have yet to score under 30 this season, and while the Buccaneers defense is very good, they have given up over 30 points twice already, one of which was to Justin Herbert.

If Herbert can shred this defense with no-name receivers, it is fairly that Aaron Rodgers armed with Davante Adams and Aaron Jones can as well.

I have also taken the Packers to win this game straight up, and if I can get six points while bringing the total down to 48, then it is a slam dunk for me to take this teaser for two units

Official NFL Week 6 Picks | Ben Rolfe

Green Bay Packers +6 & over 48 points (+105) for 2 units