For the fourth time in five weeks, our expert handicapper Chris Smith enters the weekend coming off a winning Thursday Night. Up just under 5 Units on the season now, Chris looks to keep the positive momentum going in his favor on Sunday with one side, two totals, and one Tommy Teaser appearance. As always, follow Chris’ live plays on the All-Access Twitter page. Also, be on the lookout for this week’s “Sundays are for the Dawgs” combo play with PFN volatility expert James Aguirre. Now, onto our NFL picks for Week 12 of 2019.
NY Jets +3 (-105) risk $25 to win $21.83
We will begin this week with two teams I was completely wrong on at the start of the season. I had the New York Jets as a prime AFC wild card candidate, while I took Under 6 as the Oakland Raiders win total. Jon Gruden’s crew has already reached that win total, and we’re only in Week 12.
The Raiders are currently on a three-game win streak, although they haven’t won a single game by more than one score. Don’t expect a huge game from rookie sensation Josh Jacobs with offensive lineman David Sharpe likely out against a Jets’ defense that is top five against the run this year.
Derek Carr, on the other hand, might throw for 350 yards. That said, I’m guessing Sam Darnold and the Jets’ offense can keep pace with Oakland in this potential shootout in the Meadowlands. If the Jets can somehow pull off the upset this week, they have a very favorable schedule the next couple of weeks, and there’s no reason to think the Buffalo Bills don’t eventually come back down to earth.
I’ll take the Jets and the three-point spread in a field goal game, content with a push if they fall just short of a home victory. Let’s hope for the Jets to finally get revenge for the “Heidi Game” 50 years after the fact.
Tommy Teaser (6 point) – Broncos +10 & Bengals +13 (-120) risk $25 to $20.83
Speaking of the Buffalo Bills coming back down to earth. The Denver Broncos are every bit as good as the Bills. They’ve just been perpetually snake-bitten in the fourth quarter this season. Neither team is likely to set the world on fire through the air, but the Broncos one-two punch of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman is set up to run rampant on a weak Buffalo run defense in Week 12.
The Bills running game will have a much more difficult task against a formidable, “bend but don’t break” Denver defense that consistently holds opponents to field goals in the red zone. At what point does Buffalo stop leaning on Frank Gore at age 83 and feed the dangerous Devin Singletary the ball? All of this is excellent news for us getting 10 points with the Broncos as a live road dog.
The second leg of Tommy’s Teaser features another underdog getting double-digit points in a game with a low expected point total. A few weeks ago, I put some pocket change on the Cincinnati Bengals at +900 to finish 0-16 this season. While I don’t expect them to win at home in Week 12 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, I’m not sure how Pittsburgh responds in their first game since the Myles Garrett incident last Thursday night. The Steelers are decimated by injury and suspension on the offensive side of the football. This can’t possibly be good news for Mason Rudolph coming off a terrible performance last week.
The Bengals are a terrible football team, but Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin has been atrocious in these spots historically, covering in only five of the previous 18 times his team has been favored by a touchdown or more. Getting 13 points in this teaser should provide enough cushion, even for this pitiful Bengals roster.
Eagles-Seahawks Over 47.5 (-110) risk $25 to $22.73
Are the NFL schedule makers drunk at the wheel? I know they want the national focus to be on the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys, but having just two games in the 4:00 pm time slot, in Week 12, seems ridiculous. The Philadelphia Eagles hosting Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks just feels like it should be a game played in the late East coast window.
I really want to grab the Eagles in this spot with everyone (both square and sharp) on the Seahawks, but the Philadelphia injury report hampers this potential contrarian play. Right tackle Lane Johnson has been ruled out for Week 12, meaning the Eagles’ offensive line will be short-handed against a scary Seahawks pass rush coming off Jadeveon Clowney’s dominant performance last Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers. Clowney is dealing with a hip injury himself, but I suspect he suits up for Seattle on Sunday. The Seahawks offense, meanwhile, is primed to get back Tyler Lockett.
The Seahawks have scored 27 or more points in eight of their last nine games, and while the Eagles’ offense has been inconsistent in the 2019 season, I expect them to have some success running the football. I also suspect the Philadelphia two TE sets will cause problems for a weak Seattle secondary. I’ll take the over at 47.5 here as I expect a point spread total in the 50s.