It takes a special kind of person to bet on NFL Week 18. Who’s playing? Who’s trying? And who’s hoping to lose?
The motivations are all screwy. Yet, here we are, with our final NFL picks and predictions column of the season, trying our best.
Have a Happy New Year, football fans. And please don’t hold these picks against us.
NFL Week 18 Predictions
All playoff and No. 1 pick probabilities are courtesy of PFN’s Playoff Predictor. Betting lines were as of Tuesday morning.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (-17.5, 41.5)
Perhaps the most inexplicable result of the season was the Browns beating the Ravens 29-24 in Week 8.
Since then, Cleveland has lost seven of eight (-106 point differential over that stretch), while Baltimore has won six of eight.
That rebound has put the Ravens in position to win the NFC North for the fourth time since 2018. They would clinch the division with a win or tie or a Steelers loss/tie.
The Browns, meanwhile, currently hold the No. 3 spot in the 2025 NFL Draft and have roughly a 10% chance of landing the first-overall pick. They need the following to happen to get it: A loss to the Ravens and wins by the Patriots and Titans.
- David Bearman: Ravens
- Adam Beasley: Ravens
- Kyle Soppe: Ravens
- Dan Tomaro: Ravens
- Mike Wobschall: Ravens
The Ravens win in 90.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 48.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ Week 13 win over the Bengals was a watershed moment for both teams — although not in the way one might expect.
Pittsburgh has won just once since (beating the dreadful Browns), while Cincinnati saved its season with a four-game winning streak.
Still, the Steelers are assured of a playoff berth for the fourth time in five years, while the Bengals need a win and losses by the Dolphins and Broncos in Week 18 to get in.
- David Bearman: Bengals
- Adam Beasley: Bengals
- Kyle Soppe: Steelers
- Dan Tomaro: Steelers
- Mike Wobschall: Bengals
The Steelers win in 64.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-8.5, 47.5)
The Falcons’ Week 6 win was the midway point of Carolina’s early season five-game losing streak. The Panthers have gone 3-5 since that skid — improved, but still not great.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has lost six of 10 games since beating Carolina in Charlotte.
That’s why the Falcons need to win and get help from the Buccaneers in Week 18 to make their first playoff appearance since 2017. The Panthers enter Week 18 in the No. 6 draft slot.
- David Bearman: Falcons
- Adam Beasley: Falcons
- Kyle Soppe: Falcons
- Dan Tomaro: Falcons
- Mike Wobschall: Falcons
The Falcons win in 63.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Washington Commanders (-4, 44) vs. Dallas Cowboys
The nadir of the Commanders’ season was their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys, which extended their losing streak to three games. Since then they have won four straight — the last three by a combined 10 points.
Dallas is 4-2 in its last six, beginning with that late-November win over Washington. That won’t be enough to make the playoffs, but it might be enough to save head coach Mike McCarthy’s job.
Dan Quinn is aiming higher in his first season in Washington. The Commanders can secure the No. 6 seed — and avoid a first-round date with the Eagles — with a win or a Packers loss.
- David Bearman: Commanders
- Adam Beasley: Commanders
- Kyle Soppe: Commanders
- Dan Tomaro: Cowboys
- Mike Wobschall: Commanders
The Commanders win in 66% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-9, 40.5)
The Packers beat the Bears in Week 11, but that’s not too significant of an accomplishment. Every team the Bears have played since Week 8 has beaten the Bears; Chicago’s 10-game skid is the NFL’s longest active losing streak.
Green Bay is 5-2 since its bye, with the only losses coming against the Lions and Vikings.
Unless something crazy happens, this will be the last game at Lambeau until September. The Packers will be the NFC’s No. 6 or (far more likely) No. 7 seed. They’d achieve the former with a win and a Commanders loss or tie.
- David Bearman: Packers
- Adam Beasley: Packers
- Kyle Soppe: Packers
- Dan Tomaro: Bears
- Mike Wobschall: Packers
The Packers win in 72.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 46)
Just three teams have lost to the Jaguars this year. The Colts, in Week 5, are one of them. Since then, Jacksonville is 3-8 while Indianapolis is 5-6.
It’ll be interesting to see Shane Steichen’s reception from fans Sunday after the Colts’ playoff hopes died in North Jersey last week. The Jaguars are playing for draft positioning in what could be head coach Doug Pederson’s final game.
- David Bearman: Jaguars
- Adam Beasley: Colts
- Kyle Soppe: Colts
- Dan Tomaro: Jaguars
- Mike Wobschall: Jaguars
The Colts win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 38) vs. New England Patriots
If this matchup feels familiar, it should. The Bills and Patriots played just two weeks ago. Buffalo won, but New England held its rival to their fewest points (24) since Week 6.
The Bills have nothing on the line. They’re locked into the AFC’s No. 2 seed. The Patriots, meanwhile, are in pole positioning to pick first overall after losing their sixth straight last Sunday.
A loss to Buffalo or wins by the Titans, Browns, and Giants would secure New England’s first No. 1 pick since 1993 (Drew Bledsoe).
- David Bearman: Bills
- Adam Beasley: Patriots
- Kyle Soppe: Patriots
- Dan Tomaro: Bills
- Mike Wobschall: Patriots
The Bills win in 82.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 38.5)
Early on in the Giants’ season-imploding 10-game losing streak, they lost 28-3 to Philadelphia. Since then, the Eagles have won nine of 10 to secure their fourth NFC East championship in eight seasons.
New York, meanwhile, failed to tank correctly. The upset win over the Colts means that it needs a loss to the Eagles and wins by the Patriots, Titans, and Browns to pick first overall.
Unfortunately, the Giants are playing an Eagles team with nothing at stake. No. 2 seed Philadelphia knows it will open the playoffs at home against the Commanders or Packers in the Wild Card Round.
- David Bearman: Eagles
- Adam Beasley: Giants
- Kyle Soppe: Eagles
- Dan Tomaro: Eagles
- Mike Wobschall: Giants
The Eagles win in 90.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5, 43.5)
The Buccaneers seized back control of their playoff destiny in Week 17 by thrashing the Panthers hours before the Falcons lost to the Commanders.
Tampa Bay would clinch the NFC South and its fifth-straight playoff appearance with a win/tie or a Falcons loss/tie. The Bucs would be the No. 4 seed unless they win and the Rams lose in Week 18.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to say exactly when Dennis Allen’s goose was cooked (Cajun style, of course), but his days were certainly numbered after the defensive specialist surrendered 51 points in a Week 6 loss to the Buccaneers.
Sunday will be interim Darren Rizzi’s last chance to convince Gayle Benson to make him Allen’s permanent replacement. A Saints win would be a shocker, however. They’ve scored just 57 points since their Week 12 bye.
- David Bearman: Buccaneers
- Adam Beasley: Buccaneers
- Kyle Soppe: Buccaneers
- Dan Tomaro: Buccaneers
- Mike Wobschall: Buccaneers
The Buccaneers win in 71.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (-1, 38.5)
The Texans — the AFC’s No. 4 seed — are limping into the playoffs. They’ve scored just 64 points since their Week 12 loss to Tennessee and their only truly impressive win of the season came against the Bills way back on Oct. 6.
The Titans, meanwhile, have dropped five straight since beating Houston, although three of those five losses were by one score.
They would secure the No. 1 overall pick with a loss to the Texans and a New England win vs. Buffalo.
- David Bearman: Titans
- Adam Beasley: Titans
- Kyle Soppe: Titans
- Dan Tomaro: Titans
- Mike Wobschall: Texans
The Texans win in 64.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-3, 44)
The 49ers’ 24-23 loss to the Cardinals back in Week 5 was an early warning sign that San Francisco’s Super Bowl hopes were in serious trouble.
It kicked off a stretch of eight losses in 12 games; San Francisco has zero wins this year against teams guaranteed to be playing in the postseason.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have lost five of six since their bye to miss the playoffs for the eighth time in nine years.
- David Bearman: Cardinals
- Adam Beasley: Cardinals
- Kyle Soppe: Cardinals
- Dan Tomaro: 49ers
- Mike Wobschall: Cardinals
The Cardinals win in 52.1% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (-10, 38.5)
The Broncos are in the postseason field with a win, tie, or Week 18 losses by the Dolphins and Bengals.
They have gotten to this point by beating the bad teams and losing to the good ones. Their strength of victory (.333) is the lowest of any of the AFC’s playoff teams entering Week 18.
But none of their seven losses — including a 16-14 Week 10 heartbreaker to the Chiefs on a walk-off blocked kick — have been to teams with losing records.
The Chiefs have nothing to gain and everything to lose by playing their starters in Week 18. They clinched the top seed and the first-round bye that comes with it on Christmas Day.
- David Bearman: Broncos
- Adam Beasley: Broncos
- Kyle Soppe: Broncos
- Dan Tomaro: Broncos
- Mike Wobschall: Chiefs
The Broncos win in 75% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Seattle Seahawks (-3, 39.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams surged to the postseason with wins in nine of 11 games since their Week 6 bye, including five straight to clinch their first NFC West title since 2021.
A Rams win/tie or a Bucs loss/tie Sunday would secure the No. 3 seed and keep Los Angeles from having to play the NFC North runner-up in the Wild Card Round.
The Seahawks’ Week 9 loss to the Rams was their fifth in six games, but Mike Macdonald got his team on track after its bye. Seattle has won five of seven to ensure its 11th winning season in the last 12 years.
- David Bearman: Rams
- Adam Beasley: Seahawks
- Kyle Soppe: Rams
- Dan Tomaro: Seahawks
- Mike Wobschall: Rams
The Rams win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 41.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Nearly four months to the day after these teams opened the season against each other — a game won by the Chargers 22-10 — they will close the book on the 2024 regular season with a rematch.
The Chargers would be the AFC’s fifth seed with a win and a Steelers loss/tie (a tie and a Pittsburgh loss would also get it done). If not, they’ll be the sixth seed and face either the Ravens or Steelers, visiting the AFC North champion.
- David Bearman: Chargers
- Adam Beasley: Chargers
- Kyle Soppe: Chargers
- Dan Tomaro: Raiders
- Mike Wobschall: Chargers
The Chargers win in 64.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Miami Dolphins (-1.5, 39.5) vs. New York Jets
The Dolphins deserve credit for salvaging their season after a 2-6 start. But even after six wins in their last eight games, they’re still far more likely than not to be watching the Wild Card Round from home.
They’ll need more than a win over a Jets team they beat in Week 14 in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ final regular season game. They also need a Broncos loss to a Chiefs team with nothing on the line.
Sunday marks the end of Jeff Ulbrich’s run as New York’s interim. The Jets will have a new head coach in 2025.
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Adam Beasley: Dolphins
- Kyle Soppe: Jets
- Dan Tomaro: Dolphins
- Mike Wobschall: Dolphins
The Dolphins win in 54.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (-2.5, 57)
The NFL saved arguably its most important regular season game for last. The NFC’s 1 seed is on the line when the Vikings visit the Lions on Sunday Night Football.
The winner gets the first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The loser will have to travel to Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, or Atlanta for the first of potentially three road games.
How important is this game? The Super Bowl has been won by No. 1 seed roughly half of the time in the last four decades. Just two No. 5 seeds — the 2007 Giants and the COVID-year Buccaneers — have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
- David Bearman: Lions
- Adam Beasley: Lions
- Kyle Soppe: Lions
- Dan Tomaro: Lions
- Mike Wobschall: Vikings
The Lions win in 56.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Percentage of Games Correctly Picked Through Week 17
- Mike Wobschall: 71.8%
- Kyle Soppe:68%
- Adam Beasley: 67.2%
- David Bearman: 65.2%
- Dan Tomaro: 61.3%