The NFL should deliver in Week 15.
Thirteen of this weekend’s 16 games have major playoff implications, highlighted by massive showdowns between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions, as well as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles.
We break them all down with PFN’s Week 15 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 15 Predictions
All playoff and No. 1 pick probabilities are courtesy of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3, 49)
Are the Los Angeles Rams for real? They’ve won six out of eight, with their only two losses coming against the Eagles (No. 2 on PFN’s Power Rankings+) and Miami Dolphins (18).
Since LA’s Week 6 bye, quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions and is seventh in adjusted EPA per play (.248). At 7-6, the Rams are 39.8% to make the playoffs and 26.1% to win the NFC West, thanks in no small part to the 12th-easiest remaining schedule (.442).
The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, aren’t done yet. After their blowout win over the Chicago Bears in Week 14, the Niners still have a 15.1% chance to make the playoffs (including 7% to host a first-round game).
But they’re seriously banged up. Third-string running back Isaac Guerendo has a foot sprain, and the quick turnaround might be too much for him to go. The next man up? Patrick Taylor Jr., who has just 311 yards and two touchdowns on 79 carries in four NFL seasons.
In other words, these are substantially different teams than the ones that met in Week 3, when the Niners blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to lose 27-24.
- David Bearman: 49ers
- Adam Beasley: 49ers
- Dakota Randall: Rams
- Kyle Soppe: 49ers
- Dan Tomaro: 49ers
- Mike Wobschall: Rams
- Anthony DiBona: Rams
The 49ers win in 50.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers (-3, 43)
Sure, we’re grading on a curve, but the Carolina Panthers are playing much better over the last six weeks — even if they’re on a three-game losing streak.
Those losses were to the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Eagles — all division leaders — by a combined 12 points. What explains the Panthers’ turnaround?
Bryce Young and a much-improved offense. Since Week 9, they’re 16th in offensive EPA (.048) and 15th in dropback EPA (.101) after ranking 31st in both (-.178 and -.232) through the first eight weeks.
Young should be able to keep it rolling against a Dallas Cowboys defense that was already bad and got worse with the injury to DeMarvion Overshown. They’ve lost six of their last eight, and during that time have allowed a whopping 30.6 points per game.
Both are technically still alive in the playoff race entering Week 15, but just barely. A loss ends Carolina’s tiny hopes, while the Cowboys would be eliminated with a loss and a Commanders win or tie.
- Bearman: Panthers
- Beasley: Panthers
- Randall: Panthers
- Soppe: Cowboys
- Tomaro: Panthers
- Wobschall: Panthers
- DiBona: Panthers
The Panthers win in 52.1% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 43.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Let’s be real: The Chiefs are 12-1, but that record is as much a reflection of luck as ability. And at some point, that luck will run out. But probably not this week against the NFL’s worst offense, according to OFF+.
Yes, the Cleveland Browns have been better on a down-in, down-out basis since Jameis Winston replaced Deshaun Watson, but they are so gaffe-prone that, overall, it hasn’t made much of a difference.
The’ve turned the ball over more than any other team since Winston took over full-time in Week 8 (13; -7 margin).
Recent history suggests the Chiefs, who are on cruise control for the AFC’s No. 1 seed despite ranking sixth in PR+, will bumble their way through three quarters only to find a way to win late.
- Bearman: Chiefs
- Beasley: Chiefs
- Randall: Browns
- Soppe: Chiefs
- Tomaro: Browns
- Wobschall: Chiefs
- DiBona: Chiefs
The Chiefs win in 74.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans (-3, 46.5)
The Dolphins are in that weird place where they’re very likely to miss the playoffs (odds of getting in are just 27.9% entering Week 15) but not so far out of it that they can shut their hurt guys down.
So each week, it’s anyone’s guess who will be available. Terron Armstead? Raheem Mostert? The safest bet is always to check back pregame.
The Houston Texans, meanwhile, are very likely to make the playoffs, thanks to a fearsome 1-2 punch pass rush of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. They can clinch the AFC South with a win and a Colts loss.
We’re intrigued about the matchup between the NFL’s No. 6 defense (per PFN metrics) and Tua Tagovailoa, who has played as well as any quarterback since his return from IR in Week 8. Over the last seven weeks, Tua is second in passer rating (114.1) and completion percentage (76%), with 15 touchdowns and one interception.
- Bearman: Texans
- Beasley: Texans
- Randall: Texans
- Soppe: Texans
- Tomaro: Texans
- Wobschall: Texans
- DiBona: Texans
The Texans win in 54.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New York Jets (-3, 40.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars are playing.
We wish they weren’t.
New York has lost nine of 10. But Jacksonville’s the truly dreadful team.
Yes, the Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 to snap a five-game losing streak. But they’re 30th in DEF+, and their strength of victory is a pathetic .308.
Our true respect for anyone in these beat-down fan bases who tune in for this one.
- Bearman: Jaguars
- Beasley: Jets
- Randall: Jaguars
- Soppe: Jets
- Tomaro: Jets
- Wobschall: Jets
- DiBona: Jaguars
The Jets win in 54.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Washington Commanders (-7.5, 43.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are going to conduct a full search for their next head coach, but they probably have their best candidate currently in the job.
Darren Rizzi is 3-1 as New Orleans’ interim head coach since taking over for Dennis Allen. He’s injected enthusiasm — and, more importantly, competence — into a lost franchise.
Their team EPA per play the last five weeks has them closer to the Rams, Chiefs, 49ers, and Washington Commanders than the New York Giants and Jaguars, which was the company they kept the first two months of the season.
If Rizzi can somehow win this game — with Derek Carr hurt — Gayle Benson should make his promotion permanent. With the Saints projected to be $77.8 million over the cap, the job isn’t going to be too appealing to the so-called top candidates anyway.
- Bearman: Commanders
- Beasley: Commanders
- Randall: Commanders
- Soppe: Commanders
- Tomaro: Commanders
- Wobschall: Commanders
- DiBona: Commanders
The Commanders win in 63.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Baltimore Ravens (-16, 42.5) vs. New York Giants
Even after three losses in the Baltimore Ravens’ last six games (8-5 overall), PFN’s metrics still have them as the NFL’s seventh-best team and overwhelming favorites to make the playoffs (94.6%).
But that changes in a big way if the Giants can pull off the upset of the year in Week 15. The Giants (2-11) are in full-fledged tank mode — and it’s working. They’re a whopping 38.9% to secure the No. 1 overall seed.
This is the perfect game for Lamar Jackson to get back the momentum he’s lost in the MVP race. He went from a minus-money favorite to a 10-to-1 shot in basically a month, but his body of work remains highly impressive.
Jackson still leads the league in passer rating (116.3) and QB-INT ratio (29-3) and has the best QB+ rating (100) since at least 2019, which is as far back as PFN’s rating system goes.
- Bearman: Ravens
- Beasley: Ravens
- Randall: Ravens
- Soppe: Ravens
- Tomaro: Ravens
- Wobschall: Ravens
- DiBona: Ravens
The Ravens win in 81.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 46.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
The Cincinnati Bengals still have a playoff pulse (6.7%), and they can thank Joe Burrow and PFN’s Week 14 Goat of the Week Amani Oruwariye for that.
With as much heartbreak Burrow has had this year, he deserved the wild ending to Monday night’s wild Bengals-Cowboys game.
Burrow might be as good as ever in 2024. And he’s been particularly good when it matters the most. On third downs, Burrow leads the NFL in offensive touchdowns (11) and passing touchdowns (10), and is fourth in passer rating (110.4).
But the sicko matchup that interests us the most from this game? The Titans’ 30th-ranked offense (per OFF+) against the Bengals’ No. 31 defense (per DEF+).
It’s the true “something’s gotta give” game. Cincinnati’s defense is 31st in sack rate (5.5%); Tennessee’s offense is 31st in sacks allowed per pass attempt (11.2%). But if given time, Will Levis (whose 11.3 yards per pass on third downs the last three weeks leads the NFL) should make plays.
- Bearman: Bengals
- Beasley: Bengals
- Randall: Bengals
- Soppe: Bengals
- Tomaro: Bengals
- Wobschall: Bengals
- DiBona: Bengals
The Bengals win in 53.5% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals (-6, 46)
Both the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals are on three-game losing streaks. Yet, only the Patriots (3-10) have benefited from it.
New England is now up to 18% to land the No. 1 pick, with the second-best chance behind the Giants (38.9%).
The Cardinals’ three-game skid has served absolutely no productive purpose. Their playoff hopes entering Week 11 stood at 72.3%. They’re now down to 21% and would become next to nil if they lose and the Seattle Seahawks beat the Green Bay Packers.
Offense has been Arizona’s big problem during this recent skid. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have scored just 46 points in their last three games and are 27th in offensive EPA (-.068) since Week 11.
- Bearman: Cardinals
- Beasley: Cardinals
- Randall: Patriots
- Soppe: Cardinals
- Tomaro: Cardinals
- Wobschall: Cardinals
- DiBona: Cardinals
The Cardinals win in 75.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos (-4, 44)
The AFC playoff field could effectively be set after Week 15. Of the top seven seeds entering the weekend, the Denver Broncos (8-5) had the worst chances of getting in — at a whopping 75.1%.
The Indianapolis Colts (6-7, 36% to get in) can keep things interesting with a win in Mile High, where they’ve won four of the last six times they’ve played there.
It’ll be a fun matchup of two of the NFL’s most polarizing quarterbacks.
The Bo Nix posse is unrelenting on social media, but maybe they’ve been right about their guy all along. During Denver’s recent three-game winning streak, Nix is second league-wide in yards per attempt (10.5) and passer rating (121.8) on third downs.
As for Anthony Richardson? He remains a big-time work in progress from the pocket. Only Cooper Rush has a worse CPOE (-10.2) among 35 qualifying quarterbacks.
- Bearman: Broncos
- Beasley: Broncos
- Randall: Broncos
- Soppe: Broncos
- Tomaro: Broncos
- Wobschall: Broncos
- DiBona: Broncos
The Broncos win in 70.1% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions (-2.5, 54.5)
Do better, NFL. The regular-season game of the year and a potential Super Bowl preview deserves better than a 4:25 p.m. timeslot opposite Steelers-Eagles.
Even against the Lions’ stout defense (10th in DEF+), we expect MVP front-runner Josh Allen and the Bills to score. They’ve put up 30+ in each of their last seven games with a whopping 80.79 total EPA over that stretch (which leads the NFL by 12.82).
But can they get stops? Buffalo couldn’t in its Week 14 loss to the Rams, who converted a league-best 73.3% of their third downs.
Jared Goff (third in the MVP race at +1000) and the Lions are high-level on both third (45.8%, fourth-best in NFL) and fourth (68.2%, sixth) downs.
The Bills probably need to force a couple of turnovers — which is certainly possible. They’re fourth in interception rate (3.1%), and Goff has thrown double-digit interceptions for the fifth time in seven years.
- Bearman: Lions
- Beasley: Bills
- Randall: Lions
- Soppe: Lions
- Tomaro: Bills
- Wobschall: Lions
- DiBona: Bills
The Lions win in 59.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 45)
Another game bursting with playoff implications.
The Buccaneers — winners of three straight after a four-game losing streak imperiled their chances — could put the NFC South in a stranglehold. They enter the week 73.5% to win the division and won’t play another team with a winning record for the rest of the season.
The Los Angeles Chargers’ entire season, meanwhile, comes down to the next two weeks. If they beat the Buccaneers and Broncos, they would, at worst, need one win in their final two games — against the Patriots (a game they win in 71.5% of PFN’s simulations) and Las Vegas Raiders (68.7%).
It’ll be fun to watch Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers offense (third in OFF+ after Week 14) go up against Jesse Minters’ Chargers defense (fourth in DEF+).
- Bearman: Chargers
- Beasley: Buccaneers
- Randall: Chargers
- Soppe: Chargers
- Tomaro: Buccaneers
- Wobschall: Chargers
- DiBona: Chargers
The Buccaneers win in 50.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 42.5)
On Sunday, the Steelers and Eagles meet in the Keystone State rivalry for the 82nd time, but just the seventh this century — and the latest point in the season since 1970.
This is the first time in the series’ 92-year history that both teams entered the game with 10 or more wins. So it could be argued that this is the most significant game these teams have ever played against each other.
It’s a win-and-get-in situation for the Steelers, who would also clinch at least a Wild Card spot by beating or tying the Eagles. A loss or tie by both the Dolphins and Colts would also get it done.
The Eagles, meanwhile, are already in the field but would lock down a home playoff game with a win and a Commanders loss or tie.
- Bearman: Eagles
- Beasley: Eagles
- Randall: Steelers
- Soppe: Eagles
- Tomaro: Steelers
- Wobschall: Eagles
- DiBona: Steelers
The Eagles win in 63.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Green Bay Packers (-3, 45.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Even after their Week 14 heartbreak against the Lions, the Packers are still very likely to play in the postseason (94.8% to get in entering Week 15). But it’s highly unlikely they clinch this week.
Why? There’s no scenario they can that doesn’t involve a 49ers-Rams tie.
Still, Seattle needs this game far more than Green Bay does. The Seahawks (8-5) are a game clear of the field in the NFC West but still just 52.2% to win the division because of a brutal closing stretch.
Their remaining strength of schedule (.596) is tied with San Francisco for seventh-hardest in the NFL.
Mike Macdonald’s defense has shown up during Seattle’s four-game winning streak, allowing just 65 points and ranking first in EPA per play (-.142) since Week 10.
- Bearman: Seahawks
- Beasley: Packers
- Randall: Packers
- Soppe: Packers
- Tomaro: Seahawks
- Wobschall: Packers
- DiBona: Packers
The Packers win in 57.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (-6,5, 43.5)
The Minnesota Vikings have won six straight and might have their second playoff ticket of the last three years punched before they even play Monday night. Minnesota will clinch if either the Rams or Seahawks lose.
If not, the Vikings will have extra incentive to beat the Bears for the second time in four weeks. But they’d prefer not to have to sweat this one out.
Minnesota needed overtime to win despite leading Chicago by 11 (with a 99.5% win probability, per ESPN Analytics) at the two-minute warning.
Caleb Williams threw 340 yards in that game, one of three times he’s gone over 300 in his young career. Brian Flores’ Vikings defense allowed the third-most team passing yards (320) of the season that day.
- Bearman: Vikings
- Beasley: Vikings
- Randall: Vikings
- Soppe: Vikings
- Tomaro: Vikings
- Wobschall: Vikings
- DiBona: Vikings
The Vikings win in 79.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Atlanta Falcons (-4, 44) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback Aidan O’Connell (bone bruise) might play for the Raiders despite suffering a scary injury in Week 14. If he doesn’t, it’ll be Desmond Ridder, who was an Atlanta Falcons’ third-round pick just two years ago.
That could help Vegas’ bigger goal: Securing the No. 1 overall pick. They had a 16.6% chance of doing so entering Week 15.
The Falcons (27.7% to make the playoffs, 23.6% as the NFC South champs), meanwhile, are sticking with Kirk Cousins despite their current four-game losing streak.
Cousins, since Week 10, is 29th in both EPA per play (-.042) and CPOE (-4.4).
- Bearman: Raiders
- Beasley: Falcons
- Randall: Falcons
- Soppe: Falcons
- Tomaro: Falcons
- Wobschall: Falcons
- DiBona: Falcons
The Falcons win in 60.4% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Percentage of Games Correctly Picked Through Week 14
- Mike Wobschall: 70.5%
- Kyle Soppe: 66.7%
- Anthony DiBona: 65.7%
- Adam Beasley: 64.7%
- David Bearman: 61.8%
- Dakota Randall: 58.9%
- Dan Tomaro: 58.4%