Week 14 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 13 weeks of data, could Week 14 be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting day across the NFL.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Week 14 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 14 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Bryce Young completions over 19.5
- Jaylen Waddle over 42.5 receiving yards
- Falcons +6
- Jerome Ford anytime TD
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. rushing ladder up to 100 yards
- Saints/Giants longest FGM under 48.5 yards
- Seahawks/Cardinals over 44.5
- Bills/Rams over 9.5 first-quarter points
- Bills/Rams both teams to score on their first drive
- Chargers/Chiefs under 7.5 first-quarter points
- Bengals -5.5
David Bearman’s Picks
- Bears/49ers under 44.5
- Falcons/Vikings under 46.5
- Browns +7
- Chargers +4
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Chuba Hubbard under 58.5 rushing yards
- James Cook over 61.5 rushing yards
- Rachaad White under 41.5 rushing yards
- Matthew Stafford longest completion under 35.5 yards
- Kyren Williams over 66.5 rushing yards
- Gus Edwards under 34.5 rushing yards
- Tony Pollard 70+ rushing yards
- Jalen Hurts under 26.5 pass attempts
- Jakobi Meyers over 61.5 receiving yards
- Brian Thomas Jr. longest reception over 22.5 yards
- Kareem Hunt under 45.5 rush + receiving yards
- David Njoku longest reception under 17.5 yards
- Deebo Samuel Sr. longest reception under 19.5 yards
- Braelon Allen under 72.5 rush + receiving yards
- Zach Charbonnet over 13.5 rush attempts
- Malik Nabers under 69.5 receiving yards
- Darius Slayton over 3.5 receptions
- Odell Beckham Jr. longest reception under 10.5 yards
- Sincere McCormick over 10.5 rush attempts
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Katz: Even though the Panthers gave Hubbard a nice, juicy extension, I don’t think that precludes them from turning this backfield into more of a timeshare with rookie first-rounder Jonathon Brooks. This line seems to not be reflecting the combination of Hubbard’s recent performance and the expansion of Brooks’ role from his debut game to his second contest.
As impressive as Hubbard has been this season, he’s been under 58.5 rushing yards in four of his last six. The two games he went over were against the Saints and Giants, two of the league’s worst run defenses. He struggled against teams like the Broncos and Chiefs, two of the better run defenses in the league.
This week, Hubbard gets an Eagles run defense allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game. Hubbard will likely need heavy volume to have a chance at surpassing this number.
Well, two weeks ago, Brooks saw a mere two carries. Last week, that increased to six, with him also seeing three targets. His snap share went from 8% to 21%. If we see that tick up again into the 30-35% range, that will likely translate into another 2-3 carries. Hubbard cannot afford that loss of volume if he has any hopes of clearing this number. I would play this down to 55.5.
Pick: Chuba Hubbard under 58.5 rushing yards
Katz: The Panthers are allowing the most rushing yards per game by an incredible 19.2 yards. Over their last three contests, they’re allowing a staggering 189.3 rushing yards per game. The only reason that isn’t worst in the league is because the Rams gave up 255 yards on the ground to Saquon Barkley.
Speaking of Barkley, that’s exactly who the Panthers get to try and stop this week. Good luck.
There has been a clear shift in the Eagles’ offensive philosophy since their Week 4 loss to the Bucs gave them a 2-2 start. Beginning in Week 5, the Eagles started leaning more heavily on the run game. I would say it’s been pretty successful, as they haven’t lost a game since.
Over that span, Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes just once — Week 11 against the Commanders. Even against the Ravens pass-funnel defense last week, Hurts only threw the ball 19 times.
What exactly are the Panthers going to do that will force Hurts to air it out? It’s hard to envision it. This should be another dominant Barkley game with Hurts only doing what is necessary. I don’t even think he gets to 22 attempts.
Pick: Jalen Hurts under 26.5 pass attempts
Soppe: You may have noticed that Young is quietly playing better-than-expected football lately. That’s admittedly a low bar to clear, but in this spot as a massive underdog, it’s a good spot for him to carry a heavy workload. If his recent growth can be flashed for even pockets of time, I think he can help us cash a ticket.
Sometimes, in order to do more, you actually do less, and that’s the case these days in Carolina. The Eagles blitz at the second-lowest rate in the league, and that means that opposing offenses are often “on time” in their passing game against them. That, of course, doesn’t guarantee success, but “on-time” means quick releases in Carolina. Quick releases, generally, mean higher-percentage/more conservative throws.
This season, among 40 qualifiers, Young ranks eighth in quick pass rate when not blitzed (29th when blitzed). Philadelphia has allowed the 10th-lowest opponent aDOT through 13 weeks, giving me confidence that we see a lot of underneath passes for the Panthers, especially if you believe they are playing from behind with regularity.
Young is averaging 32.1 pass attempts in his full games this season, and if we blend a low-aDOT script with that number of attempts, getting to 20 completions shouldn’t be a sweat late in this game (and even if it is, we could easily backdoor our way there – he had six final-drive completions in a one-sided loss against the Broncos in October, moving his total for the afternoon from 18 to 24 in the process).
Pick: Bryce Young over 19.5 completions
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Soppe: A lot of numbers suggest that this could be the week of the WR2 across the NFL (Cooper Kupp, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and yes, Waddle). Per the Week 14 Fantasy Football Start ‘ Em Sit ‘Em piece (shameless plug, check it out every Wednesday morning, it’s the first full breakdown piece you’ll come across for the week ahead!):
“Seven of the top eight producing receivers against the Jets this season spent under 32% of their time in the slot.
Dolphins WR slot rates, 2024:
- Waddle: 19.4% of routes
- Hill: 32.1% of routes
“New York allows the ninth-most yards per completion this season (11.5), giving me confidence that Waddle’s recent efficiency results in a strong week. Maybe his third 100-yard game of the season?”
I’m not asking you to join me on a Waddle ladder, but we’ve seen his aDOT spike of late (11.7 yards over his past five games compared to 8.2 yards prior) and that means we get a nice mix of upside and stability in this spot. I’ll have plenty of Waddle exposure in the DFS streets this week, and that optimism will spill over into my betting card in a few different ways.
Pick: Jaylen Waddle over 42.5 receiving yards
Katz: The key to success in betting is finding the weak spots in lines. I believe I found one this season. We’ll see whether it continues into next year, but for now, I’m sticking with it.
Whenever a starting running back goes down, the books have consistently overestimated the performance of the backup. We’ve profited all season taking unders on fill-in backs like Trey Sermon, Alexander Mattison, Carson Steele, and others.
With Breece Hall out, Allen is set to make his first start of the season. He will be the lead back. However, this line suggests a level of usage I don’t think he will see.
The Jets used Isaiah Davis on 18% of the snaps last week. He will now be the RB2 behind Allen, and I expect Davis to be the primary passing down back. He should also mix in for a few carries.
Merely losing a little bit of volume will make it quite difficult for Allen to reach this number. The Dolphins have been much better against the run lately, allowing just 86.7 rushing yards per game over their last three, the seventh fewest in the league during that timeframe.
With the Jets on the road in a lost season, they should see negative game script. More passing is bad news for Allen’s chances of having a big game, as that should lead to more Davis, which I don’t think the books are properly accounting for.
Pick: Braelon Allen under 72.5 rush + receiving yards
Katz: For the last-minute Sunday morning additions, they will just be picks and not writeups.
Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. longest reception under 10.5 yards
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Katz: The NFL world really doesn’t appreciate how good Meyers is. He has 97 receiving yards or more in three of his last four games.
The Raiders are treating Meyers kind of like Davante Adams. Meyers is the alpha. He’s the clear WR1. And they design plays specifically to get him the ball.
With the Raiders road underdogs, they should experience negative game script, forcing them to throw the ball. The Bucs allow the third-most passing yards per game. They just let Adam Thielen go for 99 yards against them last week. The week before, Malik Nabers got to 64 yards against them. Before that, it was Jauan Jennings amassing 93 yards.
The trend is pretty clear – WR1s have success against the Bucs. Meyers is the Raiders’ WR1. Look for him to get going early and often, allowing him to sail past this number. I would play this up to 69.5. Taking him at an alt line of +100 is a solid longshot play as well.
Pick: Jakobi Meyers over 61.5 receiving yards; (late Sunday morning addition) Sincere McCormick over 10.5 rush attempts
Katz: Why exactly is this line set at 41.5? Is it because the Raiders have a perceived weak run defense? Sure, the Raiders allow the 11th-most rushing yards per game. But over their last three, they’ve allowed just 69.3 rushing yards per game, the second fewest in the league.
This line also presumes the Bucs’ backfield is still a timeshare. It is not. White has not seen more than 12 carries in a game since Week 1. Bucky Irving has seen 12+ carries in three straight games, including 25 last week.
White has rushed for at least 42 yards in a game a total of three times this season. The first two instances came in Weeks 4 and 5. The third was last week…except, did he really?
White entered overtime with eight carries for 32 yards. On his third overtime carry, while Irving was nursing a minor hip issue, White took his 11th rush of the game for 38 yards. Literally half his total rushing yardage came on that lone carry. If he does something like that again this week, so be it. But it would be quite surprising if he reached 40 rushing yards for just the fourth time this season. I would play this down to 39.5.
Pick: Rachaad White under 41.5 rushing yards
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Bearman: Kirk Cousins revenge game, yay! What does that matter? The Falcons’ offense has been hot garbage last three weeks, scoring 36 total points. Mr. Cousins has 0 TDs and six picks in that span. They shouldn’t be that bad and he should have a decent game since Minnesota is a pass-funnel team that does not allow any rushing.
The Vikings’ offense has calmed down too. Four of the last five games the Vikings have finished under this 45.5-point total, and eight of 12 have hit the under this season. I just don’t see a lot of points in this one.
Pick: Under 46.5
Soppe: Every once in a while, we see a reactive line from sportsbooks, and I think that is the case here. Kirk Cousins looked about as cooked as a quarterback can last week and has this team on a three-game skid, while the Vikings are keeping pace with the mighty Detroit Lions in the NFC North race with five straight wins.
I understand how a good-sized number gets posted, but are we sure it’s right? Even with the struggles, Cousins has completed 12 of 14 passes against the blitz, and that’s a big part of the concern when it comes to this matchup, right? That the creative Vikings will mix in exotic looks and turn over their former signal caller?
I’m not so sure.
Winning by margin isn’t exactly something I’m comfortable in the fightin’ Sam Darnold’s doing. Over their past seven wins, their average win has come by five points, a run that includes some far inferior competition (the Jets, Jaguars, and Titans are all included in that sample, not to mention letting Caleb Williams erase a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit).
Since Week 6, the Falcons have allowed the ninth-fewest red-zone trips per game – I’m not worried by death by a thousand field goals. The Cousins cliff is something I’ll bet against for now – this offense has built up enough equity to get my money for another week (10th-most net yards per pass, ranking ahead of the Bengals in that metric).
Pick: Falcons +6
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Bearman: The Browns won the first meeting two weeks ago in the snow at home. I don’t expect them to win again, but they can cover. The offense has been putting up big numbers, totaling 56 points in the last two games under Jameis Winston. But with that, you also might get pick-sixes, which is why I am avoiding the total here and would stay away from the side if it wasn’t a TD.
The Steelers are good, no doubt. They have proven they can win defensive games and shootouts like last week in Pittsburgh.
Jameis Winston: 1 pass through 6 weeks
He now has more passing yards this season than Drake Maye and Will Levis
His 17-start pace is north of 5,500 yards pic.twitter.com/xgHj3iVgic
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) December 3, 2024
But let’s be real. This is not a 44-point offense. The Bengals’ defense resembles my kid’s fifth-grade team. In the previous three games, the same Steelers won by one and two and then lost to the Browns. The Steelers will win, but a TD is a lot of points for a team that wins close games.
Pick: Browns +7
Soppe: This play comes with plus-money for a reason, but I think we get some role value here. For periods of Week 1, Nick Chubb was on the sideline while Ford was handling the backfield duties in this Jameis Winston circus, and while I’m not reading into that as something that will certainly sustain, we at least have proof that it’s within the range of outcomes.
This is a lost season for Cleveland, and with Chubb approaching free agency coming off of a significant knee injury, I think there’s a decent chance we see his usage curtailed moving forward (at the very least in this spot on a short work week).
That opens the door for Ford to potentially replicate his 65.5% snap share from Monday night, a role that holds more value in this matchup than you might assume. Yes, the Steelers boast an elite defense, but they’ve allowed over two yards per carry before contact to opposing running backs in three of their past five games after not once allowing more than 1.43 through seven weeks.
Efficiency on the ground would be nice to have, but it’s not required. Ford owns an 84.4% catch rate this season, and it’s very possible that the Browns opt to feature him in space as a way to neutralize the game-wrecking potential of T.J. Watt. I trust Winston enough to give this offense scoring chances, and with an optimistic outlook when it comes to playing time for Ford, I’ll sprinkle on him finding his way into the paint.
Pick: Jerome Ford anytime TD
Katz: Coming off his biggest game of the season, the sentiment surrounding Njoku is likely overly positive. Let’s not forget that just two weeks ago, Njoku caught a grand total of one pass for nine yards against these very same Steelers.
The Browns also won that game. This one should be the opposite. While that likely means negative game script for the Browns, I think, more than anything, it will mean offensive struggles.
Njoku has a total of four receptions all season for longer than 17 yards. Two of them came against the Ravens. The other two came against the Saints and Cowboys. The Steelers are a far more imposing defense. Given their pass rush, Winston likely won’t have time to get the ball downfield at all, let alone to Njoku, who doesn’t typically run deep routes anyway.
Pick: David Njoku longest reception under 17.5 yards
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Soppe: If you’re not spending a Sunday in December fading NFL kickers, you need to reevaluate your life decisions.
Let’s start with a macro approach before focusing our research.
Over the past five seasons, the percentage of field goal attempts coming from 45+ yards sits at 32.6% in December, a decline from 35.5% in the first three months of the season. That may seem like a minor edge, but every little bit counts and they add up over time.
The conversion rates on those attempts slips from 70.6% to 68.6% in December. Again, not a huge difference, but if we are looking at a limited number of attempts and increasing the variance on each attempt, that’s how we get to a strong play.
This season, the Giants and Saints have combined to attempt just 13 field goals from 45+ yards (NFL average for the other 30 teams: 10.2). Drill down even further and the projection shrinks. The field surface in New York is far from optimal, something that we’ve seen by way of injuries, but also, as you’d expect, in the kicking game. The Giants are 2-for-4 on such kicks in front of their fans (league conversion rate: 69.9%), while the Saints have attempted just one field goal of this length on the road this year.
It might surprise you to learn that these teams are tied for the seventh-best third-and-short conversion rate. Combine that with both of them ranking below league average at stopping such conversion attempts, and I think that when these limited offenses string together productive drives, they move the chains and extend their drives inside of the 30-yard line.
With a low total, a bad playing surface, and some potential winds (a warm front is expected to enter Rutherford today and that brings weather variance into the picture) – I’m making my first kick pick of the season.
Pick: Longest made field goal under 48.5 yards
Soppe: It’s not rare for a rookie skill-position player to peak at the end of the season, and with Tracy already showing the ability to have spike weeks, I’m in this weekend.
All the way in.
This season, the Saints rank 31st in preventing yards per carry before contact to running backs. That note had my interest without any other context, as I expect that the Giants will try to control tempo in this game as a home underdog. But wait, there’s more.
Since Week 9, New Orleans allows the third-most yards per carry to the position at contact. Outside of Tracy projecting well before and after contact with a clear bell cow role, what is there to like?
New York ranks eighth in percentage of yards that have come on the ground this season and 11th in rush rate when trailing, so even if you’re worried about game script to a degree, the rookie seeing 15-18 carries is very reasonable.
Since Week 8, there are five qualified running backs with at least as many 10+ yard runs as carries that have failed to gain yardage: Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving, and Tracy. My primary bet will be on his listed yardage (1.5 units), but I’ll have 1.25 units tied up in ladder options, thus locking me in a small profit should he just clear his over/under and leaving me open to upside should this train of thought pay off.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Jr. rushing ladder up to 100 yards
Katz: For the last-minute Sunday morning additions, they will just be picks and not writeups.
Pick: Malik Nabers under 69.5 receiving yards; Darius Slayton over 2.5 receptions
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Katz: The Titans have actually been pretty good defending the deep ball. They’ve only allowed 25 downfield completions all season and opponents are completing those attempts at a 39% rate, 26th in the league. This is about the player.
Thomas is the clear WR1 for the Jaguars. In another universe, he might have gone for 300 yards last week, as both Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones missed him deep on wide open (and I mean wiiiiiiide open) long touchdowns.
I can’t guarantee you Thomas catches a long one. But I can guarantee you the Jaguars will try at least once or twice. Plus, as he proved last week, he can take a short one and hit the Nos, Fast and Furious style, and just outrun helpless defenders.
Thomas has nine receptions of 23+ yards this season, including one in seven different games. And in two of the games in which he failed to do anything, he was very clearly hindered by his chest/rib injury he was playing through.
The Jaguars can’t run the ball and the Titans are at least more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. I’m willing to bet on Thomas breaking loose at least once.
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. longest reception over 22.5 yards
Katz: It’s been pretty easy to figure out Pollard. If the Titans can avoid negative game script, he’ll probably have a good day on the ground. In games the Titans either won or lost by one score, Pollard averages 95.3 rushing yards per game. He’s gone over 70 rushing yards in five of the six. In games the Titans lose by multiple scores, Pollard averages 43.8 rushing yards per game. He’s gone over 70 rushing yards in just one of them.
The Titans are home favorites against the Mac Jones-led Jaguars. I’m certainly far from confident they win the game, but I am confident they won’t get blown out. That should keep Pollard in play against a Jaguars run defense allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per game. I would play this up to 75.
Pick: Tony Pollard 70+ rushing yards
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Katz: Kenneth Walker III has been ruled out for this game. Whenever Walker doesn’t play, Zach Charbonnet acts as a true bellcow.
Earlier this season, Walker missed two games. In those contests, Charbonnet played 96% and 84% of the snaps. He had a 100% running back rush share in the first game and 85% in the second game. Charbonnet amassed 18 carries and 14 carries in his two starts. Simply put, this line is too low.
I expected this to be 14.5 by the time you got a chance to read this. Unfortunately, this immediately jumped to 16.5. If you can find 15.5, that’s still just about worth taking, but I would not play this at 16.5.
Pick: Zach Charbonnet over 13.5 rush attempts
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Katz: What does Cook have to do to earn a little respect? This is a number he’s cleared in six of 11 games this season, including last week when he ran for 107 yards on the 49ers’ average run defense.
LET JAMES COOK!!!!
📺: #SFvsBUF on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/7j68JPz6Nl— NFL (@NFL) December 2, 2024
This week, Cook gets a Rams run defense that has completely fallen apart. They allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game, but over their last three, no team has allowed more yards on the ground.
All season, the Bills have catered their game plan to their opponent. When they played the Chiefs’ elite run defense, they leaned on the arm of Josh Allen. When they played the 49ers in the snow, they turned to the run game, limiting Allen to 17 attempts. This week shapes up to be a game where they keep things on the ground. As long as Ray Davis doesn’t steal too many attempts, Cook should clear this easily. I would play this up to 70.5
Pick: James Cook over 61.5 rushing yards
Katz: This is a well I’ve gone back to many times this season. The Bills have made it a point defensively to not get beat deep. They will give up the underneath stuff, but you are not going to get them over the top.
The Bills have allowed a total of 24 deep-ball completions all season, the third fewest in the league. Opposing passers are completing downfield attempts at a paltry 39% clip.
Stafford’s top WR is Puka Nacua. While Nacua leads the league with a 35.1% targets-per-route-run rate, his 9.5-yard aDOT is 71st. Sean McVay is perfectly content to allow Nacua to take what the defense gives them.
Could Cooper Kupp be the one who beats the Bills deep? Doubtful. His aDOT is even lower than Nacua’s at 7.0.
Stafford has a total of eight completions all season longer than 35 yards. We will take our chances that one of the best teams in the league at limiting explosive pass plays will limit Stafford in this one.
Pick: Matthew Stafford longest completion under 35.5 yards
Katz: A few weeks ago, I wound up with four bets in the Chiefs/Bills game. I typically don’t like to have that many in a single game because they are often correlated. I went 4-0, but if I got the game flow wrong, I easily could have gone 0-4.
It appears my reads on Bills games are conducive to this type of approach because here we are again.
All three of these players are correlated to an extent. Both of these teams are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. Last week, Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, and Isaac Guerendo all had success against the Bills, combining to run for 150 yards on 24 attempts.
Williams has cleared this number every game except one since Week 3. I expect him to do it again this Sunday.
Pick: Kyren Williams over 66.5 rushing yards
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Bearman: Yes, it might be the dawn of a new era in Chicago without Matt Eberflus, but the fixes aren’t coming overnight. The Bears are still a very talented offense that can’t figure it out, scoring over 20 points in one game since their Week 7 bye. DJ Moore hasn’t practiced, D’Andre Swift is banged up and Caleb Williams is still counting timeouts.
Speaking of trainwrecks, let me introduce you to the Super Bowl hangover, which seems undefeated. The Niners are cooked and now CMC is done. It’s gotten bad with Shanny’s offense scoring 17 or less in the last three games, all losses. The WRs look bad, the top two RBs are done and Brock Purdy looks like a shell of himself.
Eight of the 12 Bears games have gone under the total, as have four of the last six Niners games. Lots of missing parts and two teams looking at the draft right now. Take the under.
Pick: Bears/49ers under 44.5
Katz: This situation with Samuel is eerily similar to what we saw with Stefon Diggs in 2023. Formerly elite talent suddenly falls off a cliff and the football world is slow to react. I’m guilty of it, too. I wanted to take Samuel’s unders last week but just…didn’t. I’m not making the same mistake again.
When Brandon Aiyuk went down, Samuel was supposed to carry this WR corps. Instead, he’s been an anchor. He has one receiving touchdown all season, which came on a flukey play.
Over the past three weeks, Samuel has finished with no more than 22 receiving yards in an individual game. He’s caught nine passes over that span. Eight of them went for 11 yards or fewer.
The Bears have actually been conducive to allowing long completions. Their 52% deep-ball-completions-allowed rate is fourth highest in the league. But that doesn’t matter if the player isn’t being targeted downfield.
I’m no longer concerned about Samuel being able to rip off a bunch of yards after the catch. Outside of that one screen he took for 21 yards against the Packers, Samuel is averaging 4.4 yards after the catch over his last three games. Let’s capitalize on fading Samuel before the lines adjust too much.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Sr. longest reception under 19.5 yards
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (SNF)
Katz: Last week, I waffled over whether to take Edwards under 44.5 rushing yards. He didn’t even come close. Hopefully, I won’t regret firing on his under this week now that it’s 10 yards lower.
Edwards is not a particularly good running back. Throughout his entire career, all he’s done is run straight. It worked on the Ravens. Now that he’s on the Chargers, even though they have a good team and good offensive line, their running backs have to at least be able to do a little on their own.
That’s not Edwards. He’ s averaging 2.38 yards created per touch, 51st in the league. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate is also outside the top 50.
This week, he gets a Chiefs defense that allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Their 3.7 YPC allowed is second fewest in the league and they face the fifth-fewest rush attempts per game.
We’ve seen Jim Harbaugh move away from his preferred run-heavy approach when the opponent calls for it. This is one of those weeks I expect him to put the game in the hands of Justin Herbert.
Edwards only saw six carries last week despite neutral-to-positive game script throughout. He will need at least 10 to have any chance of voluming his way to 35 rushing yards. I doubt he gets it. I would play this down to 32.5.
Pick: Gus Edwards under 34.5 rushing yards
Katz: Last week, the books inexplicably hung a line of 71.5 rush + receiving yards on Hunt, which appeared to not factor in Isiah Pacheco’s return at all. This week, the books have adjusted. Hunt’s line is all the way down to 45.5. It’s still not enough.
Pacheco was eased in last week, playing one fewer snap than Hunt. I expect the split to be more heavily in his favor this week.
Hunt only managed 15 total yards on nine opportunities against the Raiders. The Chargers are a more imposing foe and I expect Hunt to touch the ball even less. I would play this down to 39.5.
Pick: Kareem Hunt under 45.5 rush + receiving yards
Bearman: Betting against the 11-1 Chiefs is never a fun task until you look closer and realize the wins are great, but we aren’t betting them to win. We are betting them to not cover. They have done just that in six straight games, five of which they were favored in like they are this week. They win, but don’t cover.
Meanwhile, the Chargers do both, sporting an identical 8-4 record and ATS record. L.A. has covered in five of its last six games, only failing to cover in the Harbaugh Bowl. They have the best defense in the league, holding opponents to 20 or less in all but two games this season.
These two played earlier in the season, a game that the Chiefs won by seven, but it was a lot closer than that. The Chargers led by 10 early and never trailed until the fourth quarter. Again, I don’t expect Chargers to win, but I do expect it to be close. Winning outright would not stun me.
I also don’t hate the under here either. Especially with the Chargers’ defense. But betting against the Chiefs and the under is almost asking too much.
Pick: Chargers +4
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (MNF)
While there are plenty of lines available, the PFN betting team has no official pick for this Cincinnati Bengals-Dallas Cowboys game.
This is a weird spot given the big spread for a lost team, thus resulting in only a lean here — history says to back the visitors. Since 2000, teams with no more than four wins through 13+ weeks who are favored on the road by more than a field goal are 5-0 ATS. That’s obviously a tiny sample and a rare occurrence, but the general pattern has been that when sportsbooks give a losing team this sort of love, they typically pay it off.