Week 13 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 12 weeks of data, could Week 13 be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be another exciting day across the NFL.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Week 13 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 12 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Texans -3.5
- Will Levis under 0.5 interceptions
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown
- Bengals -3
- Falcons +1
- Colts first to 25 points
- Rachaad White under 60.5 scrimmage yards
- Matthew Stafford under 0.5 interceptions
- Derrick Henry (+13.5) rushing yards over Saquon Barkley
- 49ers first half +3.5
David Bearman’s Picks
- Seahawks moneyline
- Seahawks/Jets under 42.5
- Panthers +6
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Nico Collins longest reception over 27.5 yards
- Travis Etienne Jr. over 7.5 rush attempts
- Nick Chubb under 64.5 rush yards
- Saquon Barkley under 91.5 rush yards
- Jalen Hurts 225+ passing yards
- Alvin Kamara longest rush over 14.5 yards
- Christian McCaffrey over 52.5 rushing yards
- Christian McCaffrey anytime TD
Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Soppe: This is an interesting spot that we don’t see a ton, but when we do, a trend has developed, and I’m going to back it. The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a Monday night loss to the Ravens where they were asked to deal with Derrick Henry (24 carries) for 60 minutes while the Atlanta Falcons were sitting at home with their feet up and ice baths at the ready.
By no means am I signing up for making the 2025 NFL schedule, but it seems like giving such an advantage this late in the season would be something to avoid. Atlanta has been labeled as the underdog because they are the lesser team, but this spot has proven difficult to overcome. In six of the past eight situations in which a team with this sort of rest advantage (bye week vs. short work) and was getting points, they covered.
The Falcons are forced to punt on 25.4% of their drives (fourth lowest) while the Chargers kick the ball away 45.1% of the time (second highest). Is that weighed toward the beginning of the season?
Sure, but if we are to believe that this is going to be a close game, the Falcons have proven to be the aggressor (third-most fourth-down conversions) while maintaining offensive consistency (top-10 in both yards per pass and sack rate) this season and when you bring that profile into a rest advantage spot like this, I’m going to trust you.
Pick: Falcons +1
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 47.5)
Soppe: This point spread is going to look backward to most, and I get it. While the Cincinnati Bengals are busy putting up gaudy fantasy numbers, the Pittsburgh Steelers just continue to win football games, and it feels as if one of those things should override the other when it comes to the betting market.
But this number hasn’t moved all week and the home team is favored. Before you sprint to the window and put a mortgage payment on the fightin’ Mike Tomlins, let me tell you that in the past six instances in which a team with five or fewer wins was favored against a team with five or fewer losses at this point in the season or later, they’ve covered five times.
Pittsburgh is objectively a very good team (ranked nine spots higher than their Week 13 opponent in our custom NFL Power Rankings) and I’m not saying they aren’t. I will, however, say that they are 1-3 this season when allowed at least 1.65 points per drive, a threshold that the Bengals cross with ease most weeks (over 2.0 points per drive in seven of 11 games this season, including games against elite defenses on the road in the Chiefs and Chargers).
That’s a tall ask and let’s not overlook the scheduling situation. While the Steelers do get the mini-bye after opening Week 12 on Thursday night (in a blizzard), this is the fourth city they are playing in over the course of four weeks and they face a desperate Bengals team fresh off their bye.
Asking Cincinnati to win by margin can be scary against a team that has lost one game this season by more than three points, but with their average victory coming by 11 points this season, I’m hopeful that if they can win this game on the field, they cash my ATS ticket in the process.
Pick: Bengals -3
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 42.5) at New England Patriots
Soppe: Betting on Anthony Richardson piecing together a full 60 minutes isn’t the most comfortable way to spend a holiday weekend, but winning money doesn’t have to be the most comfortable thing in the world, and at +185, I’ll dance.
Anthony Richardson is 2nd in the NFL in rate of play action (34%)
The Patriots have allowed the league’s highest rating on play-action passes (132.3)
A 74.7% completion rate (30th) for 9.3 Y/A (25th)
And an 8.8% touchdown rate (31st)https://t.co/68cSbyVPRs
— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) November 29, 2024
The New England Patriots have reached 25 points exactly once this season and it came against the potentially even more broken Jets (a Rhamondre Stevenson touchdown with 22 seconds left and a successful two-point conversion got them to 25 points on the nose), so I’m not worried about winning the race to 25 points as much as I am getting to the number.
Does Richardson bring with him volatility? Of course, he does, but why not embrace it in this spot? The temperatures are supposed to hover right around freezing in New England at kickoff, making tackling an athletic freak like him a little less fun.
He hasn’t been the least bit cautious when it comes to running the ball and I think it stands to reason that success in that regard could open up the deep shots that he loves taking against a Patriots team that ranks 24th against chunk play pass attempts (10+ air yards) in both passer rating and completion percentage.
The home team ranks below the league average this season in scoring rate, red-zone efficiency, and, to no surprise, goal-to-go efficiency. I don’t think it’s a mistake that the Indianapolis Colts’ red-zone touchdown rate since drafting Richardson is eight points higher when he is on the field than when he isn’t, and to me, that is what this bet boils down to. If the Colts are finishing deep drives with touchdowns, we are in business.
There are a few moving pieces that I also think work in our favor. Drake Maye has thrown an interception in four straight games, and a short field certainly would hurt where we are going with this bet, and the weird Colt home/road splits have me thinking that a sporadic Maye performance is very possible.
- Colts at home: 25.9% blitz rate
- Colts on the road: 15.9% blitz rate
Neither of those rates is all that impressive, but I’ll take any increase in heat applied to a rookie I can get.
Pick: Colts race to 25 points
Seattle Seahawks (-1, 42) at New York Jets
Bearman: I’ve said this many times this season with New York Jets games: the lines aren’t right. The media and bettors still think Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are good despite 11 games worth of evidence, and now the wheels are coming off with rumors Rodgers is hurt and/or not going to be back.
As noted in this column a few times, the Jets have wins over two bad teams in the Patriots and Titans, and caught the Texans missing their entire WR core. They have what college football fans would call “zero quality wins.”
The Seattle Seahawks, once left for dead with five losses in six games, have rebounded with back-to-back huge divisional wins against the Niners and Cardinals to jump on top of the NFC West.
While I don’t think they win the division, they are better than the Jets and need this win before facing the Vikings and Packers. Is this traveling West Coast to East Coast with a 10 a.m. local start? Sure is, but so were early starts in New England, both ending in Seattle wins. The Jets are not only 3-8 on the season but 3-8 ATS as well.
The total of 42.5 also intrigues me. The Jets’ offense has been a trainwreck all season, and five straight Seattle games have gone under the total as the defense has improved and the market has been slow to react.
Pick: Seahawks moneyline
Pick: Under 42.5
Soppe: How can you not love what we’ve seen from Jaxon Smith-Njigba of late? This looks very much like your traditional Year 2 breakout and I’m not sure that sportsbooks are yet pricing it that way, a luxury I can’t imagine we get for much longer.
Where to start? Smith-Njigba has iced Tyler Lockett for the slot role next to DK Metcalf and while he is winning all over the field these days, let’s focus on that role (81% of his routes come when located there). The quick twitch stylings of the former Buckeye are no secret, and he should have no problem exploiting a Jets defense that, since the start of October, allows scores at the fifth-highest rate to the slot.
It’s natural to worry about the volume of dangerous looks, or lack thereof, for any pass catcher playing alongside a player like Metcalf, but the numbers suggest that you shouldn’t be. Since Week 5, JSN has earned a target on 30.8% of his red-zone routes. While some of that came without Seattle’s WR1 on the field, it’s symbolic of significant growth, more than doubling his career rate prior (14.7%).
Smith-Njigba has been performing at a 123-catch pace over the past month, and I think the tape he’s putting out there is more legitimate than not.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-6, 44.5)
Soppe: I preached some discomfort earlier and it’s not going to get any easier in this game – is Will Levis improving?
It’s tough to claim that with the utmost confidence due to a three-game sample, but to beat the market, sometimes you have to speculate based on limited intel. Three of his best four passer rating games this season have come over the past three weeks, and betting against the Commanders’ defense is one I’m willing to make.
Over Washington’s past four games, their pressure rate has dropped to 25.4% from the 39.8% rate they posted prior. That matters for a few reasons, the most important being that we help limit the risk-taking in Levis’ profile. This season, his average depth of throw is 14.4% lower when not pressured than it was a season ago — they’ve reigned in the rookie who was using extra time as an excuse to force the issue.
For his career, the majority of his interceptions have come when throwing 20+ yards down the field, a flaw I don’t think we see rear its ugly head today. At the very least, Levis seems to be self-aware and while that’s more of a narrative than anything, I don’t hate hearing it:
“I haven’t thrown the ball underhand or chest-passed it, so that’s an improvement.”
Tennessee will want to limit the possession count against Jayden Daniels and if they succeed in doing so, him hovering the 26 attempts that he’s averaged since returning to action is very much in play and a big boost to our win expectancy if it comes through.
Pick: Will Levis under 0.5 interceptions
Houston Texans (-3.5, 44) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Katz: I was actually eyeing up Travis Etienne Jr.’s unders because, well, he’s an awful running back. But he’s also a starting running back.
Asking a starting running back to amass a total of eight carries is a very small ask. I suspect this line is so low because of Tank Bigsby’s healthy return following the bye. But even before Bigsby went down, the move back to Etienne as the main guy was already in progress. He’s seen 11+ carries in six out of nine games this season. I think he can get to 10 here.
Pick: Travis Etienne Jr. over 7.5 rush attempts
Katz: Here’s how I feel about Nico Collins this week. Before the season, I bet there to be over 1.5 200+ yard receiving yards. Ja’Marr Chase already got one. I think Collins gets the second one this Sunday.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are spectacularly bad in all facets. Joe Mixon will run all over them. But the Houston Texans are going to call pass plays. When they do, expect multiple downfield shots to Collins.
No team is allowing more passing yards per game than the Jaguars. Only the Giants allow a higher rate of downfield throws to be completed than the Jaguars’ 55%.
Collins has a 26-yard reception or longer in every game this season.
Pick: Nico Collins longest reception over 27.5 yards
Soppe: I hesitate to say any spread is wrong, especially road games within the division, but I’ll say this one doesn’t feel right.
The Texans, in my opinion, posted a better statistical profile in the first meeting with the Jags than the final score suggests (Week 4: 24-20 win). They won the time-of-possession battle by nearly 6.5 minutes and were +9 in the first-down department despite not having Joe Mixon active.
I’d also argue that Jacksonville overachieved in that contest. They turned 24 carries into 158 yards, a level of production that seems like a pipedream at this point (last three games: 157 yards on 53 carries, 2.96 yards per carry). Trevor Lawrence was healthy in that game and had the benefit of Christian Kirk handling 37.5% of the targets and scoring.
Houston is trying to get a stranglehold on this division while Jacksonville is playing out the string — I don’t weigh motivation too highly just yet, but it’s clear that one team has more urgency in this spot than the other. Despite a 1-2 record, the Texans averaged 28 points per game in November, and if they get anywhere close to that number, I like where we sit.
Pick: Texans -3.5
Los Angeles Rams (-3, 49.5) at New Orleans Saints
Katz: Alvin Kamara is not Saquon Barkley. But it’s not like he’s some scrub. This is also one of the best running backs in the NFL.
Barkley just torched the Rams for 255 yards on the ground. Kamara has nine rushes on the season of 15+ yards, ninth-most in the league. The Los Angeles Rams allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game. This one is not complicated.
Pick: Alvin Kamara longest rush over 14.5 yards
Soppe: Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level right now and that’s something I want to have exposure to against a New Orleans Saints team that peaked as a whole in mid-September.
Over the past two weeks, the veteran has completed two-thirds of his passes with six scores and no picks. His interception rate has been trending in a positive direction of late (2.8% in 2021, 2.6% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023, and 1.6% through 12 weeks this season), something I’m willing to invest in given this matchup.
For the season, the Saints rank 25th in blitz rate and 22nd in pressure rate, numbers that, like their offensive production, are skewed for the first month of the season.
Saints’ Pressure Rate:
- Week 1-5: 26.3%
- Week 6-12: 38.1%
Gold. Stafford’s pressured interception rate this season is 0.7%, his first season checking in under 2% since 2020. As a road favorite, my thought process is that the Rams can dictate the tempo and not ask their QB to drop back 40+ times. That’s why I landed on this prop more than the volume-based pro-Stafford angles (pass yards or touchdowns) – tie this pick with the Rams to cover, and your ticket is approaching a two-to-one payout.
Pick: Matthew Stafford under 0.5 interceptions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 46.5) at Carolina Panthers
Bearman: Don’t look now, but the Carolina Panthers have been in each of the last three games, winning two of them and losing at the horn to the Chiefs. They are quietly 8-3 against the number this year, which is second-best in the NFL, behind the Ravens (10-2).
I don’t wake up wanting to play the Panthers, but six points is too much for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lay on the road against a feisty Panthers team and a version of Bryce Young that’s starting to figure it out.
The Bucs looked great last week against the awful Giants. They had lost the previous four games, allowing 31.3 PPG. In fact, the Bucs have allowed neither 30 PPG nor 30 PPG over the last two months. You don’t lay six on the road with those numbers.
Pick: Panthers +6
Soppe: When it comes to running the football, not fantasy production or value added to the offense as a whole, is there any debate as to who “the man” is in Tampa Bay this season?
2024 Rachaad White:
- 2.9 yards per carry after contact
- 4.3% of carries gain 10+ yards
- 25% PFN elusive ranking
2024 Bucky Irving:
- 4.2 yards per carry after contact
- 13% of carries gain 10+ yards
- 43.5% PFN elusive ranking
White is a difference-making asset in the passing game, and that is his utility to this offense. That’s valuable, but I’m not sure it will be this week as a six-point road favorite. For the season, the Bucs, like all teams, operate with much more caution when playing with a lead.
- Tampa Bay’s pass rate when leading: 67.6%
- Tampa Bay’s pass rate when trailing: 55.7%
If you, like me, think that the road team controls this game, they aren’t going to ask their passing game to do a ton, thus limiting the appeal of White. You could isolate his receiving numbers and I wouldn’t blame you, but I’m going to give myself a little more room for error by including the rushing totals – White hasn’t had a 10-yard rush since Week 5, so I’m not too worried that he burns me in a big way via a handoff.
Pick: Rachaad White under 60.5 scrimmage yards
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 50.5)
Katz: I get that Saquon Barkley just amassed 302 yards of total offense. I get that he’s run for 146 yards or more in three of his last four games. But 91.5 is a very, very high number.
The Baltimore Ravens allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game. They are a pass-funnel defense, allowing the second-most passing yards per game.
Barkley may very well have a big game, but I expect it to involve him catching passes. The Philadelphia Eagles should implement a pass-heavy game plan to exploit the Ravens’ weakness, limiting Barkley’s chances to reach nearly 100 yards on the ground.
I would play this down to 85.5.
Pick: Saquon Barkley under 91.5 rush yards
Katz: I don’t love making multiple bets that essentially say the same thing. However, when I have a good feel for a game flow, I want to capitalize on it.
When the Bills played the Chiefs a couple of weeks ago, I had four bets on that game predicting a specific game flow. I was right and those bets went 4-0.
In this game, I expect the Eagles to lean more pass-heavy to exploit the Ravens’ pass-funnel defense. They are the second-worst pass defense in the league and the second-best run defense.
Even if DeVonta Smith doesn’t return, Hurts has plenty to work with in A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert. I think he goes for 300. I would play this up to 235.5
Pick: Jalen Hurts 225+ passing yards
Soppe: In what might be a battle for Offensive Player of the Year, we get two of the best running backs in the game in this spot. Saquon Barkley has scored multiple touchdowns in two straight and run for over 145 yards in four of his past six – he’s great, but I’m struggling to justify the edge he has over Derrick Henry when it comes to projected rushing total.
Of course, the home run carry is in his profile and, of course, the Eagles could win this game. That’s all fair, but he’s facing a pass funnel defense, on the road, as an underdog while Henry faces a more balanced defense and could be working in a favorable game script.
For the season, Philadelphia coughs up first downs via the running back rush at the seventh-highest rate (24.9%), and if they can’t give Baltimore a reason to pivot off of The King, why would they?
Saquon Barkley vs. Derrick Henry 🍿
Who are you rolling with? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/6OjT00tz3j
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) November 28, 2024
We saw Henry wear down a strong Chargers defense last week with his Ravens playing with a lead (24 carries for 140 yards) and it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw something similar in this spot. The idea of picking him to outrush Barkley is sound, but the price doesn’t entice me enough (+125) to justify passing on the little added breathing room we get via the spread.
Pick: Derrick Henry (+13.5) rushing yards over Saquon Barkley
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-6, 44.5)
Katz: It certainly hasn’t been the return to action that Christian McCaffrey or the San Francisco 49ers wanted or expected. McCaffrey is averaging a paltry 3.47 yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone. Here’s why I think that all changes on Sunday night.
The 49ers are expected to get Brock Purdy back, which alone should improve the offense’s efficiency.
This is also a great spot for McCaffrey against a Bills defense that has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game over its last three.
Earlier in the season, the Buffalo Bills were a premier run funnel defense. Since then, their run defense has gotten better, but they’ve also been beating the breaks off of their opponents, forcing negative game scripts.
Even though the Bills are touchdown home favorites, I think the 49ers put up a strong fight and don’t allow the game script to get away from them. With Deebo Samuel playing the worst football of his career and Purdy not 100%, look for them to lean on McCaffrey and for him to answer the call. Plus, when are we ever going to get Christian McCaffrey’s rushing total and anytime touchdown line this low again?
I would play this up to 59.5 and -140
Pick: Christian McCaffrey over 52.5 rushing yards
Pick: Christian McCaffrey anytime TD
Soppe: This should be a fun Sunday nighter, even if the road team isn’t entering with the sterling record we thought. Despite various injuries, the 49ers haven’t had issues early in games; it’s been their execution when all the chips are in the middle of the table that has resulted in underachieving.
First-Half Average Point Differential:
- 49ers: +39 (eighth)
- Bills: +22 (12th)
Second-Half Average Point Differential:
- 49ers: -39 (25th)
- Bills: +84 (first)
Is that sticky? Hard to say, but in a game that could come with some nasty weather, I like the idea of a team that enters every week with a solid game plan thriving in the early going. The Bills can very much succeed in this spot, but given their confidence in their ability to solve puzzles with time, they are the team more likely to be conservative of the two.
If you’re having a good Sunday, go ahead and sprinkle on the first half moneyline, but for the purposes of laying out my betting card entering the day, I’m taking advantage of clearing a key number in the spread.
Pick: 49ers first half +3.5
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 51.5)
Katz: This is a truly shocking line. Nick Chubb has not reached 60 rushing yards in a single game this season. Now, facing a Denver Broncos defense allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game and a paltry 58.7 per game over their last three, his line is the highest it’s been all season? Make it make sense.
It’s great that Chubb is healthy. I’m certainly rooting for a return to form. But we haven’t seen it yet. This is one of the best pure runners of the last decade. Yet, he’s only averaging 3.0 yards per carry.
Add in the fact that the Cleveland Browns may see a negative game script, leading to more Jerome Ford, and I don’t see Chubb coming close to this number. I would play this down to 60.5.
Pick: Nick Chubb under 64.5 rushing yards