Week 9 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers
With eight weeks of data, could Week 9 be our most profitable yet? Sportsbooks have installed plenty of road favorites and big spreads — this is a unique betting board, and I’m here to walk you through the NFL picks for every game.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
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Week 9 NFL Picks and Predictions
Kyle Soppe‘s Picks
- Bills -6
- Raiders +7
- Chargers/Browns over 43.5
- Nick Chubb under 56.5 rushing yards (would take down to 50.5)
- Cowboys/Falcons under 52
- Rico Dowdle over 39.5 rushing yards (would take up to 44.5)
- Patriots +3.5
- Commanders/Giants under 43.5
- Daniel Jones over 204.5 passing yards (would take up to 209.5)
- Saints/Panthers over 43.5
- Broncos/Ravens over 45.5
- SGP: Eagles -7.5 with Eagles over 26 points
- Bears +1.5 (SGP easter egg within the write up)
- Lions -3.5
- Jared Goff under 1.5 touchdown passes
- Rams/Seahawks under 48.5
- Colts +5
- Jonathan Taylor over 95.5 rush yards (+205)
- SGP: Chiefs moneyline, Buccaneers +8.5
David Bearman‘s Picks
- Chargers/Browns under 43.5
- Bills -6
- Patriots/Titans under 38
- Rams moneyline
Jason Katz‘s Picks
- Courtland Sutton over 49.5 receiving yards
- James Conner over 16.5 rush attempts
- Jalen Hurts longest completion over 35.5 yards
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba longest reception under 20.5 yards
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. to run for 100 yards (+600)
- Kareem Hunt under 78.5 scrimmage yards
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6, 49)
Bearman: I was amazed the Miami Dolphins were a 4.5-point favorite in Tua Tagovailoa’s first game back last week versus Arizona and hopped all over the Cardinals. I am equally surprised that, after seeing the Dolphins blow the game last week — though the offense did look better as expected with Tua’s return — they’d be less than a TD underdog to a Buffalo Bills team that has absolutely owned the Dolphins.
The Bills have not only won 12 of their last 13 over Miami but also 12 of the last 13 at home against the Dolphins, including eight straight. Tagovailoa was in high school the last time Miami won in Buffalo, and that was an overtime win.
Putting all that aside, the two teams couldn’t be more different right now. The Dolphins have lost five of six since the season-opening win and have looked bad in the process. Meanwhile, the Bills already have four wins by three TDs or more, including a dominating 31-10 win in Miami in Week 2. I was surprised to find this one at less than a TD and will hop on the shorter line.
Pick: Buffalo -6
Soppe: Laying upwards of a touchdown in a divisional matchup isn’t something I make a habit of doing, but I think it makes plenty of sense in this spot. The total suggests that we are going to see plenty of points on the board; if that proves accurate, I think you have to side with the home team.
During their three-game win streak, the Bills own the third most efficient offense in the league (2.93 points per drive, trailing only the Lions and Ravens). While this Dolphins offense is more capable of keeping up in a game like that now than they were a few weeks ago, asking them to routinely put seven points on the board against the sixth-best red-zone defense and fifth-best unit by EPA is a tall task.
Pick: Bills -6
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 46.5)
Soppe: The Las Vegas Raiders might not be great, but they’ve been competitive in consecutive weeks (at Rams, vs. Chiefs), and Joe Burrow hasn’t been great over his career in covering big numbers (4-8 ATS when the spread is over six points).
As per usual, it’s the defense that concerns me with the Cincinnati Bengals. They rank 27th in red-zone conversion rate and allow the eighth-most yards per drive. If they are having a hard time getting off the field, covering a number like this gets increasingly difficult, especially against an offense that is happy to dink and dunk its way through possessions (LV: third-lowest average depth of throw this season).
We’ve seen the Raiders backdoor spreads in each of the past two weeks with scores in the final three minutes that meant nothing to most but the world to us — there’s a chance they make it three in a row if not outright being in a good spot to cover this number.
Pick: Raiders +7
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 43.5) at Cleveland Browns
Bearman: We had the under in the Saints/Chargers game last week and never had a sweat. The play there, and again this week, is mostly on the fact the Los Angeles Chargers have one of if not the best defense in football and a typical Jim Harbaugh three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offense.
There’s one unit in the NFL that has yet to give up more than 20 points in a game: this Chargers defense. L.A. is allowing 13 points per game, the best in the NFL, while at the same time only scoring 18.9 a game.
The Cleveland Browns looked like a different team last week with Jameis Winston at QB, but it was also against an awful Ravens secondary, which ranks dead last in pass yards allowed. The Chargers do not. One game with Winston isn’t convincing me that the Browns team, which is only ahead of the Patriots in yards per game, is magically fixed.
Harbaugh’s defense is a different challenge, and we are getting three more points than we got last week in the Saints matchup. Not one Chargers game has reached 40 points this season. This one won’t either.
Pick: Under 43.5
Soppe: Given how the Chargers play, giving points on the road is a risk I’m not willing to take. Instead, let’s call for this to have more points scored than any other Los Angeles game up to this point!
That sounds dangerous, but it’s a low bar to clear. Winston has seen 13 of his past 20 starts go over the number when the spread is less than a field goal, not a surprising number as close games encourage him to be at his full YOLO capacity for 60 minutes. That is good news for over bettors, as a Winston throw carries point expectancy with it for both teams!
The Bolts have seen their pressure rate drop from 44.7% in Weeks 4-6 to 32.1% over the next two, and that is naturally going to up the scoring equity when the opponent is willing to take shots down the field. On the other side, Justin Herbert has seen his yards per completion increase in each game this year, and with the Browns allowing the fourth-most yards per catch after receptions this season, I like him to continue to trend upward.
Every Chargers game comes preloaded with more overtime potential than most, so that doesn’t hurt. This total has been getting some early attention (opened at 42.5), but I still think we have a point of value here to chase.
Pick: Over 43.5
Soppe: It’s great to see Chubb on an NFL field, and I’m generally rooting for him, but where my heart is and where my wallet is aren’t always the same.
On average, defenses are playing with a lead for 40.4% of running back carries and have a success rate of 62.2%. Six defenses have come in over both of those numbers in at least half of their games this year:
- Texans: 75%
- Chiefs: 57.1%
- Chargers: 57.1%
- Vikings: 57.1%
- Ravens: 50%
- 49ers: 50%
Those are the defenses that I’m fading running backs against right now (if you want the other end of that list, the Falcons, Dolphins, and Seahawks are the teams yet to record such a game), but that’s not the only reason to be out on Chubb in this specific spot.
The veteran running back has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 70.4% of his carries this season (NFL running back average: 45.5%). To my eye, he’s looked about as healthy as you can expect given the injury he is recovering from, but if he’s not given the opportunity to get running downhill, he can only do so much.
Chubb’s situation isn’t helped at all by facing the slowest-moving team in the NFL. I’m skeptical that Cleveland’s lead back will see an average of four yards per carry or get much more than a dozen opportunities on the ground, and that makes reaching this total a difficult sell.
Pick: Nick Chubb under 56.5 rushing yards (would take down to 50.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 52)
Soppe: Close games with high totals have a way of going under the total (unders: 22-13-1 since 2019 in games with a projected total over 50 and a spread under three points), and I like that to be the case in this spot. Not because I doubt the abilities of these offenses to move the ball but because I worry about their ability to finish drives.
Through eight weeks, the Atlanta Falcons rank 22nd in red-zone efficiency and the Dallas Cowboys rank 31st, topping the touchdown rate of only the Giants. Competitive games often come with drawn-out possessions down the stretch, and when you combine that with the lack of mobility from both quarterbacks, a limiting factor when it comes to projecting splash plays, I feel good about this ticket.
Pick: Under 52
Soppe: Dallas running backs ran 17 times for 46 yards last week against the 49ers, a contest in which Dowdle (illness) was a late scratch and we got videos of Dalvin Cook drinking on the sideline before his season debut.
It wasn’t water that he was sipping.
It would appear safe to slot Dowdle atop this depth chart (20 of 28 RB carries in his last healthy game) and, as mentioned, the Falcons’ run defense is well below average, and it’s getting worse.
Through two weeks, they were the seventh-best unit against running backs in terms of success rate, but that was a long time ago.
Falcons’ cherry-picked defensive rush success by weekly ranks:
- Week 3 vs. Kansas City: 32nd
- Week 4 vs. New Orleans: 22nd
- Week 6 at Carolina: 18th
- Week 8 at Tampa Bay: 25th
Did I leave out two games? I did. Atlanta’s run defense showed well on the stat sheet for those games, but that’s not why I omitted them. In each of those games, the Falcons trailed for over 77% of their defensive snaps, a game script that I find very unlikely to unfold this week with them favored by a field goal.
The best run defense in the league this season is allowing 3.0 yards per carry to running backs. I like the chances of Dowdle flirting with 15 carries, putting him on track to cash this ticket even if this defense were to reverse course and plug the run at a high level.
Dowdle ladders are in play for those of you trying to juice up your prop card.
Pick: Rico Dowdle over 39.5 rushing yards (would take up to 44.5)
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 38)
Bearman: This was the first game I targeted when I saw the matchup this week. You have two of the worst offenses in football doing battle, which automatically means an under for me.
- Yards per game: Tennessee Titans 30th, New England Patriots 32nd
- Passing: Titans 31st, Patriots 32nd
- Scoring: Titans 28th, Patriots 30th
- PFN’s Offensive+: Titans 28th, Patriots 31st
Any way you slice it, these teams aren’t any good. The Patriots got over the total last week vs. the Jets with a late TD against a fading defense.
Am I concerned that the Titans have given up 86 points in the last two games? That was against Josh Allen and Goff — I am not concerned. These teams could play six quarters and not sure they’d get to this number.
Pick: Under 38
Soppe: I thought there was a chance this game would be a pick’em if for no other reason than favoring either of these teams doesn’t feel comfortable, so I’ll take the points and check back in on this game in the fourth quarter.
The 1-6 Titans find themselves in a very unique spot as a favorite given their lack of success, and that lines them up as a fade.
0-8; That’s the recent ATS record of teams favored despite having at least five more losses than wins in their eighth game or later of the season. Is that oddly specific? Of course, it is, but this is a weird game, and I’m happy to clear a key number in a game with a sub-40 total.
I suspect that neither of these teams hesitates to blitz this week, given the quarterback limitations, a strategy that fits the Patriots (15th in pressure rate when bringing the heat) more than the Titans (30th).
I think I’m getting points in a low-scoring game in which I have the better (or less bad) QB situation, and that’s good enough for me!
Pick: Patriots +3.5
Washington Commanders (-3.5, 43.5) at New York Giants
Katz: Did I miss something here? Tracy just ran for 145 yards on 20 carries against the Steelers’ stout run defense. Now, we can get him to run for 100 yards again at +600? Sign me up.
Perhaps the books are looking at his last game against the Washington Commanders in which he carried the ball once for two yards. Initially, that may seem discouraging, but he was still backing up Devin Singletary at the time. In fact, Singletary ran the ball 16 times for 95 yards.
The Commanders have not been the same laughably bad pass defense they were in 2023. They’re actually more of a run funnel now, allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game.
Tracy has completely taken over the New York Giants RB1 role, relegating Singletary to the same type of backup role Tracy was in the first time around. We are getting very good value on Tracy to reach 100 yards on the ground.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Jr. to run for 100 yards (+600)
Soppe: This line feels a little fishy, and that has me trending away from an ATS pick, but that doesn’t mean I’m not betting against Jones at home.
Unders are 15-4 (78.9%) in the last 19 NFC East battles with a road favorite, the case we find ourselves in here. Washington’s defense has looked better of late (22 points over the past two weeks), and while I’m not adjusting my power rankings in a significant way as a result, their ability to shut down below-average offenses is something I’m comfortable in backing this week.
Both the Giants and Commanders own top-10 pressure rates through eight weeks, tendencies that can set these offenses behind the chains. Jayden Daniels walked off with the Hail Mary last week, and that’s great, but he was nothing more than ordinary by way of our QB+ metric. If that’s the case again in this spot, getting to this total is going to be an uphill battle.
Even if the Commanders rediscover their offensive form, we could still cash this ticket. The Giants have failed to reach double-digit points three times this season, all at home on their questionable surface.
Pick: Under 43.5
Soppe: Since 2020, 172 times has a home underdog thrown 30 passes in a game before the weather turns on the East Coast (I’m using Week 10 as a cutoff for the purposes of this note), and 139 of them have thrown for at least 205 yards.
DraftKings has Jones projected to throw 32 times in this spot, and that trend doesn’t directly take into account the matchup. In fact, you could argue that the majority of the performances that go into that 80.8% hit rate are against defenses that are at least average. It’s tough to be a road favorite with a defense like what the Commanders put out on the field.
Washington’s pass defense ranks, 2024:
- 22nd in yards per pass
- 24th in interception rate
- 27th in touchdown rate
- 28th in passer rating
As mentioned, this defense has looked better of late, but if Jones’ volume is in the projected range, I’m happy to take my chances with him reaching this low total.
Pick: Daniel Jones over 204.5 passing yards (would take up to 209.5)
New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 43.5) at Carolina Panthers
Soppe: Overs have come through in eight of the past nine instances in which the home team is catching more than six points after Halloween, a trend I think continues in what is expected to be Derek Carr’s return to action.
In this game, we get access to the worst scoring defense in the league (33.9 points per game) on one side and the worst run defense in terms of yards allowed per carry before contact on the other.
Having Bryce Young hold a part of your ticket isn’t a comfortable spot to be in, but with both of these defenses ranking bottom six in yards per play and rush EPA (expected points added), there will be opportunities to put points on the board despite a low total.
No, I don’t think the New Orleans Saints hang 47 points on Carolina as they did in Week 1, but if they can flirt with 30, I think this Carolina Panthers run game, combined with minor developmental steps from Young post-benching, can get this game to the mid-40s.
Pick: Over 43.5
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 45.5)
Katz: Things you can’t do against the Baltimore Ravens: run the ball. Things you can do against the Ravens: throw the ball. That’s pretty much the crux of the process here.
The Ravens have -0.19 defensive EPA per dropback, the fourth worst in the league. Their 291.4 passing yards per game allowed is the most in the league by a whopping 20 yards.
Sutton is the clear WR1 for the Denver Broncos, and Bo Nix has been playing very good football over the past month. Sutton had that zero-target hiccup against the Saints in Week 7. Otherwise, he’s been over 50 yards in four of his last six. He’s coming off an 11-target, eight-reception, 100-yard game. The Broncos should be trailing and throwing. Sutton should hit 50 in this one.
Pick: Courtland Sutton over 49.5 receiving yards
Soppe: Which of these things isn’t true?
- The Ravens are the perfect team when it comes to betting overs.
- The Broncos are performing above expectations and offer offensive versatility.
Overs are 7-1 in Baltimore games this season, and history is on the side when it comes to this total as well — overs are 36-23-3 (61%) in the last 62 when a team is favored by more than seven points with a sub-47-point total. Lamar Jackson is playing better than he did a season ago, and this game features the only two quarterbacks that ranked top-five in rushing yards in October while also completing two-thirds of their passes.
For me, this is a cheap way to bet on Nix while getting access to the most dangerous offense in the league — I like the number of outs we have in what is projected to be a lopsided contest.
Pick: Over 45.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 45.5)
Katz: I’ve had success with longest-completion props this season attacking specific defenses. Taking the longest completions unders against the Bills has been a winning formula. It also appears longest completion overs against the Jacksonville Jaguars might be viable as well. It worked last week with Jordan Love. Let’s try it again.
The Jaguars are allowing a 56% deep-ball completion rate, the third-worst in the league. They are a pass-funnel defense with their -0.3 defensive EPA per dropback, the worst in the NFL.
Hurts has seven completions on the season of 36+ yards (all were 40+). He has at least one in five of his seven starts this season. Between A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, one of them should be able to get behind the coverage this week.
Pick: Jalen Hurts longest completion over 35.5 yards
Soppe: Are the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles the inverse of the 2023 Eagles?
Philadelphia seems to be rounding into form (85-36 scoring differential during their three-game win streak), and I think that’s likely to continue against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th in opponent scoring rate, 30th in average drive distance, and 31st in turnover rate. If they can (finally) score early and put the Jags in a catch-up spot (25th in three-and-out rate), this could get out of hand in a hurry.
Hurts has covered 19 times as a favorite, and overs are 13-6 in those games with the Eagles averaging 29.8 points per game in those spots (28+ points in each of the past nine home covers under the leadership of Hurts). I don’t need a trend like that to feel good about getting creative, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.
Pick: Eagles -7.5 with Eagles over 26 points
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 44.5)
Katz: Betting on Conner is really a bet on the game script. Conner is a true workhorse. He’s played over 80% of the snaps in the past two weeks. If the Arizona Cardinals don’t fall behind, he should push 20 carries.
Conner has carried the ball at least 18 times in four of their last five games. He even got there in a 42-14 blowout loss to the Commanders in Week 4. Otherwise, though, the common theme is competitive games.
The Cardinals have won three of their last four, and Conner’s volume played a huge role in all three wins. In a blowout loss to the Packers, he only had seven carries.
Is it possible the Chicago Bears storm out to a huge lead that takes Conner out of the game? Sure. It’s football. But the most likely scenario, with the Cardinals as very small home favorites, is a competitive game where the team leans on its most reliable offensive player against a Bears defense that is much more beatable on the ground than through the air.
Pick: James Conner over 16.5 rush attempts
Soppe: Is this spread the same if Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary hit the turf last week?
I’m not so sure. Kyler Murray is 8-13 ATS (38.1%) in his past 21 games as a favorite with an average cover margin of -4.4 points per game. This offense has plenty of talent, but part of what makes them unique is Murray’s dynamic ability, something the Bears just contained last week against Washington.
This is a bet on Chicago’s defense (they are the second-best defense in the league this season and the best when the opponent gets inside their 20-yard line), with the understanding that Caleb Williams has the potential to pull this ticket out of the fire if need be as he continues to develop.
The Cardinals force punts at the lowest rate in the league and allow a score on the majority of opponent drives. I’ll take the points for a single pick, and if you’re in the business of chasing some upside, I have a Williams over 252.5 pass+rush yards with Chicago to win both halves SGP (+650 at DraftKings).
Pick: Bears +1.5
Detroit Lions (-3.5, 48.5) at Green Bay Packers
Soppe: Jordan Love’s quick return to action has kept this spread manageable, and that’s enough for me to back the best team in the NFC (and maybe in the NFL?).
As good as the Detroit Lions’ offense has been, it’s the other side of the ball that I think gets this ticket to the finish line. Detroit has the second-lowest opponent passer rating (77.2), and with me expecting Green Bay to end up in a one-dimensional game state (Josh Jacobs has been great, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury), that’s an impactful strength.
The Green Bay Packers have relied heavily on takeaways this season, but with the ball rarely hitting the turf in Goff’s offense these days, that’s a dangerous way to live. Favorites are 6-1 ATS (85.7%) in the past seven NFC North divisional matchups featuring a road favorite — the Lions make a statement win and the Packers limp into their bye looking for ways to peak down the stretch.
Pick: Lions -3.5
Soppe: We like the star power on both offenses, but both of these teams rank in the top 10 in rush rate over expectation, something that leads me to believe this could be a lower total possessions game than most assume.
We know the Lions want to use their two-back system to dictate tempo and are we sure the Packers can stop them?
Green Bay’s rush defense (vs. RBs) ranks, 2024:
- 15th in rush TD%
- 25th in success rate
- 26th in third-down conversion rate
- 30th in first-down rate
This bet is listed as a coin flip due to Goff’s success this season (five straight multi-TD pass games), but I’d argue that they haven’t truly feared an opposing offense all season. I’m operating with the assumption that Detroit wants to keep Green Bay’s offense off the field; if that’s the case, a fifth straight game with well under 30 pass attempts is likely.
Pick: Jared Goff under 1.5 touchdown passes
Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 48) at Seattle Seahawks
Katz: Do not adjust your dial. This is not déjà vu, but this is a repeat wager.
If you took this pick last week, a lot of what you’re about to read will be redundant.
The reason JSN doesn’t get downfield targets is because he doesn’t earn them. It wasn’t the offensive coordinator’s fault. It wasn’t Geno Smith’s fault. Smith-Njigba just isn’t that good of a player.
JSN’s 7.6 aDOT is 85th in the league. All he does is rack up receptions underneath. Without DK Metcalf, there may have been an expectation that JSN’s role would change. It didn’t. While he did see an increase in volume, the targets were still underneath.
Smith-Nijgba has one reception for more than 20 yards all season. While the Los Angeles Rams aren’t the most imposing defensive foe, it hasn’t mattered for JSN’s usage. Plus, the Rams have actually been better lately, allowing just 201 passing yards per game over their last three. We may just take this every week for the rest of the year until the line adjusts downward. I would play this down to 19.5.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba longest reception under 20.5 yards
Bearman: I can keep this one simple. The Rams are the better team in my mind. I had them as a playoff team before the season, and it didn’t start off well with losses in four of the first six games. However, they also had injuries to their top two WRs and a shell of an offense.
The Week 6 bye week and the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua solved a lot of problems, and the Rams scored 30 points on a good Vikings defense last week. Now with extra rest off the Thursday night game, they get a Seattle Seahawks team that is an absolute mess since a 3-0 start.
Taking out the win at Atlanta in Week 7, the Seahawks’ four losses in the last five games were all by two scores, including an embarrassing nine-point loss at home to the Giants. The Rams are healthy and have a legit shot to turn their season around with a win to get to .500 and then back-to-back games versus the Dolphins and Patriots.
Pick: Rams ML
Soppe: These divisional matchups feature teams that know one another well and give us plenty of data points to consider. As a result, the lines end up sharper, but I’ll buy into their struggles to properly handicap this rivalry in the past and play it forward.
Unders are 8-1 (88.9%) in the last nine Rams/Seahawks games. Los Angeles has covered seven of those games if you’re more of a spread bettor, though I like the total side more, as I don’t trust both of these inconsistent offenses to score with regularity.
Pick: Under 48.5
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 46.5)
Soppe: The Minnesota Vikings are taking on water (consecutive losses after the 5-0 start) while the Indianapolis Colts (4-2 after a 0-2 start) are trending in the other direction and now have offensive stability.
Running backs on the whole don’t impact my opinion of games in a major way, but Taylor (100% of Indy’s RB carries in his return to action) is the exception, and I love him in this spot. During this mini-skid, the Vikes are allowing 169.1% more yards per carry before contact to opposing running backs than they did through six weeks, a scab I expect the Colts to pick at early and often.
Joe Flacco has covered seven of his past 10 road regular season games, and an outright win isn’t out of the question. That said, we saw this matchup down the stretch of the 2022 season, and the Colts blew a 33-point halftime lead — just do me a favor and watch this game to the finish line before victory lapping.
Pick: Colts +5
Soppe: I’m just going to say it — I don’t think there’s a bad way to bet on Taylor this week. DFS Showdown Captain? Sold. Standard betting lines? Good by me. Exotic alternative lines to juice up your ticket? I’m listening.
Taylor had 100% of the running back carries last week against the Texans and might well have 100% of their team carries this week with the team opting to go to Flacco as their starter. We know the Vikings are going to be aggressive and bring pressure from all directions to make the immobile Flacco uncomfortable.
Good.
That style of defense will result in some carries for a loss from Taylor, but it also gives him the opportunity to explode once he advances through that first level. Three times this season a running back ran the ball more than 10 times against the Vikings, and all three of them finished with at least 97 rushing yards.
Taylor’s prop for rush attempts is 18.5; if that’s anywhere close to accurate and Indy keeps this game as close as I think they are capable, he’s a live bet to lead the league in rushing yards today.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor over 95.5 rush yards (+205)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 45.5)
Katz: Hunt is now set to start his fifth game for the Kansas City Chiefs. His yardage totals so far: 85, 117, 83, and 63. He’s gone over this number in three out of four games. So, why are we going under?
Hunt’s efficiency has declined in every game this season. He averaged 4.93 yards per carry in his debut. That then dropped to 3.78, 3.55, and 2.81.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled against the run lately, but this is still a pass-funnel defense. This is the type of game where Patrick Mahomes may actually air it out.
Hunt is minimally involved in the passing game. He has a total of nine receiving yards in his past two contests. If the Chiefs do go pass-heavy, Hunt may not see the volume he needs to have any chance of hitting this number.
It’s taken Hunt 20+ carries to do what he’s done recently (59 and 78 yards on the ground the past two weeks). If that drops to only 15-17 carries, he shouldn’t come close to 80 scrimmage yards.
Pick: Kareem Hunt under 78.5 scrimmage yards
Soppe: At this point, the only thing scarier than betting on the Chiefs to lose is asking them to win by a significant margin (five of seven wins have come by seven or fewer points this season). So why not bet into our comfort zone?
In his career, Mahomes has won but failed to cover 28.6% of prime-time games. That’s an absurdly high rate, and the thought process there is that we get an inflated number due to the public hammering the face of the league even more than normal in an island spot.
I’m out on Baker Mayfield for fantasy football purposes, but the fact that he was able to earn a B in our QB+ metric last weekend without either of his star receivers was impressive. We are coming upon the one-year anniversary of the last time the Chiefs put 30 points on the board; if they are struggling to get past the mid-20s on Monday night, covering a number like this is going to be difficult.
SGP: Chiefs moneyline, Buccaneers +9.5