Here’s the final, updated look at our NFL Week 9 predictions and picks for the remaining 12 games, with the 49ers, Broncos, Browns, Cowboys, Giants, and Steelers on byes. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread and moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook — snag $200 by betting $5 as a new user with your newfound knowledge!
NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed, including two major questions surrounding each team’s execution of its offense.
Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
As shared previously, both of these teams have surrendered more points than they’ve scored. Yet, both are firmly in playoff contention. Why? Because of shaky defenses — particularly Atlanta’s, which has yielded an NFL-high 2,455 passing yards. Although receiver injuries will slow Justin Herbert’s passing attack, he still has enough firepower to win by a touchdown or more.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers
Chicago Bears (+4) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This betting line has narrowed a bit from 4.5 points earlier this week. Nothing earth-shattering, though it’s one more reason for me to change sides. That’s right: I’m now going with the Dolphins to cover the spread.
Miami added Bradley Chubb this week and upgraded their backfield with Jeff Wilson Jr. Meanwhile, Chicago parted ways with Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn while bringing in Chase Claypool. The Claypool move might be too little, too late. The Bears are playing for 2023. The stacked Dolphins are ready to challenge for the AFC East title — or at least a playoff berth.
Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
Moneyline winner: Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This spread was 8.5 heading into Monday Night Football. The betting community saw what happened, and now magically the line has dropped a full point.
As my old friend Kyle Rice likes to say, “pish-posh,” which I believe means, “who cares?” Not sure. Never asked him to explain it. But let’s go with that.
Joe Burrow led all QBs in sacks last season with 51, and he’s on pace this season for 62. The healthy Browns certainly had his number. But guess what? Pressuring the quarterback is not what Carolina’s known for. They’re 30th in the league with only 12 sacks. I think Burrow will be much more effective on Sunday, leading to a comfortable victory.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Detroit Lions (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
I don’t love betting on this one, but also don’t want to sidestep it. There’s still logic in picking Detroit to cover, despite their decision to send T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota. But can they win? That’s now a tougher case, especially if D’Andre Swift still isn’t 100%. The Packers’ defense is for real (most weeks). I think the Lions will come up just short.
Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Packers
New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
As Jonathan Taylor’s status has grown murkier, and with Indy trading Nyheim Hines, this line somehow has dropped a point, making me even more bullish about picking the Patriots to cover. Although Deon Jackson has proved himself, whoever starts for the Colts, the rejuvenated, playoff-minded Patriots should take this one more easily than expected.
Against-the-spread prediction: Patriots
Moneyline winner: Patriots
New York Jets (+11.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
If the Jets don’t make the playoffs after starting 5-2, a strong case could be made that losing Breece Hall changed everything. The rookie RB was averaging a blistering 5.8 yards per carry and was fourth on the team in receiving yards. His season-ending injury created a hole that Michael Carter, the newly acquired James Robinson, and veteran Ty Johnson cannot fill.
MORE: Lock of the Week and Upset of the Week
This betting line was +12.5 on Tuesday. The favorable shift toward Buffalo makes little sense to me. While many Jedi underestimated the power of the dark side, many bettors underestimate the power of the Bills — which might include the return of CB extraordinaire Tre’Davious White.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills
Washington Commanders (+3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This spread has remained steady all week despite Minnesota’s meaningful TE acquisition (Hockenson). The 4-4 Commanders’ value might be inflated. Minnesota is a legitimate NFC powerhouse playing for no less than a No. 2 seed. I expect them to pick apart Washington’s defense, which has often struggled to contain opposing QBs and RBs.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
I wonder how the Jags feel after starting the season 2-1 and then leading the Eagles 14-0 in Week 4. The same goes for the 2-5 Las Vegas, which has lost by one point, two points, and in overtime (that collapse versus Arizona).
While Jacksonville is on the verge of merely playing out their season, the Raiders still have an outside shot to make noise. On Tuesday, I recommended Jacksonville to win and cover. Now, I’m switching to the Raiders, believing their now-or-never situation will bring out the best in their talented offense.
Against-the-spread prediction: Raiders
Moneyline winner: Raiders
Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 4.05 p.m. ET
I try to avoid overstating my confidence about certain bets over other bets. A bet is a bet. Either I believe it or I don’t. And if I don’t, there’s no good reason to share it.
But I’ll make an exception here: I’ve written thousands of words about this game and believe fully in Arizona’s ability to win and cover. Bank on 28+ points in a statement game in a rematch from Week 6.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
Moneyline winner: Cardinals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
The last two Super Bowl champions are on the verge of missing the playoffs. They have the NFL’s two worst yards-per-carry marks. Matthew Stafford is on pace to take a career-high 58 sacks and throw a (tied-for) career-high 19 picks.
Meanwhile, Tom Brady is averaging his fewest yards per pass attempt since 2003, and his TD pass percentage (2.6% of throws) is less than half his career average of 5.4%.
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Compared to last season’s thrilling Divisional Playoffs matchup, this one could be a dud. Then again, athletes have lasting memories. I have little doubt that Tampa Bay will avenge their postseason defeat and hand the Rams their fourth loss in five games.
Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers
Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
In betting terms, this line has “jumped” from 10.5 points a few days ago. With Ryan Tannehill still hobbled, Derrick Henry will once again have to carry his team on his back.
Henry’s already had three straight games with 30+ touches. This can’t continue. He’s on pace for 403 carries, just shy of Larry Johnson’s 2006 regular-season record of 416. Ironically, the Chiefs are more beatable through the air, where they’re tied for the most TD passes surrendered.
Yet, the Titans are not built to compete through the air. Well, they were supposed to be. But offseason additions Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, and the long-forgotten Austin Hooper haven’t quite torn up the field.
We should not be shocked if Kansas City wins by 27+ points. If Henry struggles (and who could blame him if he does, after all the work he’s put in?), this contest could be effectively over before halftime.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Monday, Nov. 7
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
The betting line has shifted from 3 to 2.5, perhaps because Baltimore’s injury woes remain concerning, including losing Rashod Bateman for the rest of the season.
While the Saints have adjusted (somewhat) to their brutal injuries at wideout (including losing Michael Thomas for the season), the Ravens now have little room for error if Mark Andrews isn’t close to 100%. Although we don’t yet know everyone who will take the field or how healthy they’ll be, I’m sticking with the Saints to cover and win.
Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
Moneyline winner: Saints