In Week 2, we went 9-7 in moneyline bets and 9-7 in bets against the spread. With that in mind, here are our final NFL Week 3 predictions and picks for the remaining 15 games following Thursday Night Football. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 3 predictions and picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting sub-plots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities. With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed, including two major questions surrounding each team’s execution of its offense.
Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
While the betting line suggests this is essentially a toss-up, I’ve got Chicago winning by 7+. A rejuvenated David Montgomery and improving Justin Fields should be enough to handle Houston. When factoring in the near-certainty that underperformers Darnell Mooney and/or Cole Kmet will go off, the Bears should engineer their best offensive effort in a while.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Bears
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
When betting on a narrow favorite playing on the road, we need to remember that strange things happen. Both teams are 0-2 and likely desperate to keep their fading postseason hopes alive.
I expect Derek Carr to target his old friend Davante Adams 12+ times. Tennessee simply lacks the same firepower, especially if Derrick Henry can’t reverse his waning efficiency going back to the games immediately preceding last year’s midseason injury.
Against-the-spread prediction: Raiders
Moneyline winner: Raiders
Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The Colts are on their fourth quarterback in four years since Andrew Luck retired, and there might already be buyer’s remorse. That said, I’m not counting out any team with an elite backfield and strong defense, even against the brutally tough Chiefs. This game probably will be closer than expected, if only because Indy has to have learned from the mistakes of the past two weeks. This is why, in part, I believe we’ll see more of Nyheim Hines on Sunday.
Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
Miami Dolphins (+6) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This line was +4.5 on Monday. Now it’s +6. What’s changed? Maybe the afterglow of Miami’s improbable comeback over Baltimore has faded, and now reality has set in. Buffalo looks like impending Super Bowl champions. Earlier this week, I wrote that betting against them means going against the grain in a huge way. That’s still the case, although the expanded betting line makes me even more bullish about Miami covering.
Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
Moneyline winner: Bills
Detroit Lions (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Can the Lions keep up with the Vikings? Absolutely. They have one of the game’s top running backs, and if we’re to believe the last 6-8 regular-season games dating back to last year, one of the game’s top wideouts. But for Minnesota, we still haven’t seen Dalvin Cook or Adam Thielen at their best. Cook has major breakout potential Sunday, and I believe he’s the key to another Minnesota victory.
Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Vikings
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Glad to see this line has shrunk a bit since earlier in the week. Baltimore should win this one unless Lamar Jackson’s injury and the pain of last weekend’s collapse hang over this once- and future-proud franchise.
Although the Patriots posted an impressive road victory over the Steelers, they’re still a work-in-progress in the passing game. Can Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will this team to victory, or at least cover the spread? We can’t underestimate New England, but I also don’t see them losing by less than three points.
Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
Moneyline winner: Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
A change since earlier this week! I recommended betting on the Bengals to cover at -4.5. While I still expect blow-up performances from Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, that extra point matters.
And because you matter (yes, you), I’ve run the numbers on historical NFL point differentials. There have been 913 times (5%) in which games have been decided by exactly four points, 465 times (3%) decided by exactly five points, and 946 times (6%) they’ve been decided by exactly six points.
So based on historical scoring, this point-spread shift to -5.5 gives the Jets a 3% better chance of covering. That’s enough to tip the scales.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jets
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Washington Commanders (+6.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This was a four-point spread in favor of the Eagles heading into their Monday night faceoff against the Vikings. As you can see from the dramatic line shift, their domination caused bettors to flock to the flock.
Nothing that happened Monday changed my thinking, however. Washington should keep this close, with the high-flying, flockless Carson Wentz leading the best Commanders team in years.
Against-the-spread prediction: Commanders
Moneyline winner: Eagles
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Let’s keep this simple. New Orleans has an elite defense. Carolina has one of the league’s top RBs. Jameis Winston’s and Alvin Kamara’s health should be the deciding factors in a contest the Panthers must win to keep scant playoff hopes alive. After all, they’ll next face the Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, and Bucs. But Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry form a solid WR corps, and they (along with a stellar D) should prove too tough for the Panthers to overcome.
Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
Moneyline winner: Saints
Los Angeles Chargers (-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
To win this game, Jacksonville needs to play their best football of the young season. Doable, and also not likely. The Chargers possess elite-level talent at multiple key positions, and even with question marks surrounding some of them, their underrated defense and a rebounding Austin Ekeler should control this game from the opening drive.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
I picked Arizona earlier this week not only to cover but to win outright. I’m now shifting to a narrow Rams victory. LA is healthier, and their underperforming defense should improve. It’s strange to think one of these 1-1 teams realistically might not make the playoffs. The Rams’ experience and mentality should help keep them out in front.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
Moneyline winner: Rams
Seattle Seahawks (-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
I took Seattle -1.5 on Monday, and I’m sticking with them (obviously) at a more favorable -1. Expect one of Geno Smith’s best games of his career, aided in large part by a rebounding DK Metcalf. I’m concerned that Cordarrelle Patterson’s usage in the passing game has plummeted by more than 50% in his last six games compared to his previous 12. If that trend continues, Atlanta will lose a key reason why they remained in the playoff hunt for much of last season.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Mike Evans’ suspension and continued injury concerns to a decimated receiving corps have lowered this betting line from -3 a few days ago to -1. Doesn’t faze me at all. The Bucs should take this one by 5+ points, aided largely by its elite defense. Aaron Rodgers is still feeling out his passing game with a largely new corps. He might not be in midseason form until, well, midseason.
Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers
Denver Broncos (+1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
In a few days, the Broncos have gone from one-point favorites to 1.5-point underdogs. In light of Trey Lance’s devastating season-ending injury, Jimmy Garoppolo will bring a more conservative approach to the offense. That should benefit Denver even more.
The Broncos possess as much or arguably more offensive talent than the 49ers, and whether it’s the fault of the head coach or the players or both, something’s wrong. But I remain all in on this club, which in Week 1 racked up more offensive yards than in any game last season.
Against-the-spread prediction: Broncos
Moneyline winner: Broncos
Dallas Cowboys (+1) at New York Giants
- Date: Monday, Sept. 26
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
This is a tough call. Dallas was a three-point underdog on Monday, and now it’s down to one. But I had the Cowboys winning outright regardless. So what’s changed? Nothing.
Cooper Rush might be a better QB than Daniel Jones. Dallas’ defense is better than the Giants’. That’s enough for me. And sure, Saquon Barkley has rebounded nicely. But if the Giants are forced to throw, they’re playing into their rival’s hands.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys