NFL Picks and Predictions Week 18 | NFL lines and odds
Let’s break down the remainder of the action for Sunday afternoon and evening.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Cleveland Browns
A couple of scenarios could hand the Bengals the No. 3 seed instead of the No. 4. However, I’m not sure that will necessitate playing all their starters this weekend. Still, that’s not for me to say. We can guess for now that their main guys will play enough to rack up some scores, particularly since this is an early game, so they won’t have the luxury of determining a game plan based on other contests’ outcomes.
For Cleveland, it’s Nick Chubb or bust. Maybe Jarvis Landry or Donovan Peoples-Jones gets going. But let’s face it: 5.8 fantasy points for Chubb in Week 17 was not what managers bargained for. His inexplicably low 12 touches will be remedied.
Bengals vs. Browns Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 20
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
I’m having a tough time predicting this game script, mostly because it’s impossible to know what Bucs head coach Bruce Arians has in mind. He can’t afford to keep losing players to injuries, but he’s vowed to play his starters. I think Tampa Bay can score 24 points in a half against Carolina, and that should be enough to cover.
For the Panthers, a painful season is coming to an end. Ameer Abdullah might be their highest-scoring fantasy option in Week 18, which speaks volumes. DJ Moore hasn’t been reliable in weeks.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 16
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots are fighting for the AFC East crown. They’re also going to avenge their Week 1 home loss to a Dolphins team that went on to lose seven straight. Last week, I publicly pushed Mac Jones and Jakobi Meyers. This week, not so much. Expect a heavy dose of Damien Harris (assuming he’s a go) and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Will this be Tua Tagovailoa’s final start as Miami’s “franchise” QB? Let’s be a little even-handed about this: the Dolphins are averaging a league-worst 3.4 yards per carry and are generating the NFL’s third-fewest rushing first downs. Defenses are locked in on the 23-year-old quarterback. On Sunday, Jaylen Waddle might get 12 points. Otherwise, I’m expecting Bill Belichick to avenge the Pats’ Week 1 loss.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 13
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Saints will throw everything they have at the Falcons, knowing a victory combined with a 49ers loss to the Rams will catapult them to the playoffs. Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara are must-starts. Marquez Callaway, one of my favorite undervalued preseason WRs, remains a solid streamer.
Meanwhile, Atlanta inexplicably has shied away from throwing to Cordarrelle Patterson their past seven games. Mike Davis keeps trudging along as an RB3/4, while Kyle Pitts has (justifiably) leapfrogged Russell Gage as Matt Ryan’s No. 1 target.
Saints vs. Falcons Prediction: Saints 26, Falcons 17
New York Jets (+16.5) at Buffalo Bills
I’m still surprised the Bills defeated the Patriots on the road in Week 16. Assuming both teams win this week, Buffalo and New England will face off again in the first round of the playoffs. I expect the Bills to win convincingly, but not necessarily comfortably. The 4-12 Jets have looked better on the field than they look on paper. All the usual Bills are startable in fantasy. But they might not play beyond the third quarter if a win is evident.
For the Jets, if Michael Carter, Elijah Moore, and Jamison Crowder return, perhaps Carter and Moore could be streamers. Braxton Berrios would revert to unstartable, especially against this tough Buffalo defense.
Jets vs. Bills Prediction: Bills 33, Jets 21
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
17 weeks ago, this game would have mattered more: a battle between two NFC West titans. Instead, the limping Cardinals need a win and a Rams loss to win the division, while Seattle will need a new quarterback if this is Russell Wilson’s last game as a Seahawk. For Seattle, I’ve been advising managers to start Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett as boom-bust options for weeks. Haven’t always hit, but their upside makes them worth the risk.
For Arizona, I’m expecting Kyler Murray to carry this offense. Zach Ertz should rise to the occasion. Seattle is also giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields, so Chase Edmonds and (if healthy) James Conner should be in all streaming conversations for obvious reasons.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals 35, Seahawks 19
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
If Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy, he’ll start. But it might not matter. I like that the Rams lost to the Niners 31-10 in Week 10. That was their first game without Robert Woods and with Odell Beckham Jr. Why do I like this? Because payback in sports is a thing, especially when the more talented team is paying it back — and especially when that team is playing at home for a coveted No. 2 seed.
It will be hard to bench Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and possibly even Brandon Aiyuk. But just like I wrote about Minnesota’s fantasy prospects in Green Bay this past Sunday, the same is true for San Francisco. Expect more muted performances than we’re accustomed to seeing from this foursome.
Meanwhile, the Niners’ defense is below-average in terms of fantasy points yielded to QBs and WRs. I’m eyeing 300+ yards and 3+ TDs for Matthew Stafford. Cooper Kupp, OBJ, Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, and Sony Michel are all startable. The point spread shouldn’t be 4.5. It should be 24.5.
49ers vs. Rams Prediction: Rams 44, 49ers 17
Sunday Night Football: Week 18 picks and predictions
Let’s look at the current odds for the Sunday Night Football game and make our final pick and prediction for Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
Normally, I’m picking the home team in a matchup where the winner makes the playoffs. But these teams are not equal. The Chargers are tangibly better. For starters, they have a +18 point differential. The Raiders? -68.
The Chargers also have a better quarterback, running back, and receiving weapons (particularly if Darren Waller sits). I’d start the usual big-time LA performers, including Mike Williams as a boom-bust flyer.
Of course, Josh Jacobs and Hunter Renfrow need to be fired up in fantasy. Zay Jones was one of my favorite streamers last week and still is this week. If Waller sits, Foster Moreau should get enough love to crack the top 12 TEs. But I don’t believe Las Vegas has the firepower to keep up with a Chargers team that’s lost two games at the last second. Frankly, LA is good enough to be an AFC title contender; they’ll close the deal Sunday night.
Chargers vs. Raiders Prediction: Chargers 26, Raiders 20