Here’s a final look at our NFL Week 10 predictions and picks for all 14 games, with the Bengals, Jets, Patriots, and Ravens on byes. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 9:15 a.m. ET
This betting line has jumped 1.5 points in the past few days. Earlier this week, I recommended the Seahawks +1. Look, these teams are going in different directions. While the Bucs have the offensive and defensive corps (on paper, at least) to return to prominence, the improved odds reinforce why I’m not budging from my Seahawks prediction.
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Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Seahawks
New York Giants (-4) vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Another big point-spread mover! The Giants were 6.5-point favorites on Monday. Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins look poised to return, so that’ll help. But are they worth 2.5 points? Houston has played teams closer than expected. Yet the Giants should be able to win by a touchdown or more, thanks in part to an exceptional pass defense that should make it tough for Davis Mills in catch-up mode.
Against-the-spread prediction: Giants
Moneyline winner: Giants
Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Both of these teams are 3-6. Both jettisoned talent before the trade deadline. And, of course, Chicago added Chase Claypool, which might prove negligible in a mostly pass-averse offense.
But in the end, the question is whether Detroit can slow Justin Fields, who, in less than a month, has gone from a slow-developing prospect to a ready-to-lead franchise QB. His matchup against Detroit’s vulnerable defense is timed perfectly to build on his fantastic run (pun intended).
Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Bears
Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
On Monday afternoon, the Bills were favored by 7.5 points. Now it’s three with Josh Allen’s Week 10 status up in the air. If needed, Case Keenum can hold the line against the tough Vikings. But I would expect a very close contest.
Earlier this week, I picked Minnesota to cover when it appeared Allen might return. That field-goal spread makes me a little more cautious. Buffalo’s defense should prove to be the difference.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Miami scores like a Super Bowl contender. The acquisition of Jeff Wilson Jr. was brilliant, particularly given the lack of a true No. 3 receiver for Tua Tagovailoa. (Trent Sherfield has been sporadically solid; Cedrick Wilson Jr. has been mostly absent.)
The Browns would need to win this one primarily on the ground, and as we saw last week, that might be enough. But we’ve also seen Cleveland move away from the run when trailing, putting the game in Jacoby Brissett’s hands.
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That could play into Miami’s hands, as Brissett’s QB rating this season has dropped, on average, in each successive quarter. Additionally, his rating is 104.4 when leading and merely 66.9 when playing from behind.
Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
Moneyline winner: Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Last Sunday, Patrick Mahomes needed 68 pass attempts to squeak past a team that needed only five completions to force overtime. I’m not expecting a repeat performance.
However, the Jags have been tough against the run, averaging only 4.0 yards per carry allowed (third-best in the league). So we might see another 38-44 pass attempts for Mahomes in what should be a comfortable win against a hit-or-miss Jacksonville offense that thrives with Travis Etienne Jr. but hasn’t been as consistent through the air.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Here’s the thing, folks. Derrick Henry is on another pace for monster usage, and the Broncos’ elite pass defense should be able to shut down whoever’s throwing for Tennessee. The more I’ve analyzed this game, the more comfortable I am betting on Denver to cover and win. Tennessee remains beatable through the air, and I’m banking on the rested Russell Wilson to (sort of) return to form.
Against-the-spread prediction: Broncos
Moneyline winner: Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The point spread has narrowed by one point. I’m undeterred. Pittsburgh for the win. As long as Andy Dalton remains at the helm for New Orleans, we’ll be holding our breath on every possession. Kenny Pickett and his passing attack have a higher ceiling. I still believe George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth will get the job done.
Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Steelers
Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 4.05 p.m. ET
It pains me to bet on this game because we don’t know what kind of Raiders team will show up after Las Vegas blew yet another big lead. Emotionally, this has to be the toughest season many of those players have faced — and for those who endured the Henry Ruggs tragedy last year, it’s been two seasons of trying to heal a pained franchise.
But we also don’t know what kind of Colts team will show up. How will they respond to new head coach Jeff Saturday? Will Jonathan Taylor return to glory? Can Sam Ehlinger capitalize on a glorious matchup?
I’m betting on a close game with more offense than we might otherwise expect from two teams that expected to be playoff contenders only two months ago. With Jonathan Taylor set to return, the line has dropped 1.5 points since Monday. It should have dropped a little more.
Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Raiders
Green Bay Packers (+4.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Is the 30-year Packers era over? Brett Favre took over the starting QB job in 1992. He was then forced to hand it over to Aaron Rodgers. During this span, Green Bay has finished below .500 only four times and has never missed the playoffs more than two years in a row.
I warned fantasy managers and bettors this summer that Rodgers was deeply overvalued. He’s never played without a clear-cut No. 1 WR — a guy he can trust on third-and-long, or even third-and-short.
Despite its impressive young WR corps (that can’t stay healthy), this team looks headed toward a five- or six-win season. Maybe they’ll rebound. Maybe Rodgers still has what it takes to elevate his offense.
For now, despite the tough road conditions, the Cowboys are the clear favorites to keep pace with the Eagles (and Giants) in the NFC East. However, with the point spread shifting slightly more in Green Bay’s favor, I’m comfortable picking them to keep things close enough to cover.
Against-the-spread prediction: Packers
Moneyline winner: Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
This point spread jumped from minus-3.5 on Monday to minus-1 on Wednesday, and then back to minus-3 on Friday. It could change more by the hour as we get further clarity on Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray. So hang on to your hats, or to your head if you don’t like hats.
Against-the-spread prediction: Rams
Moneyline winner: Rams
San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
It’s not the Chargers’ season. That was evident in Week 2 when Keenan Allen missed his first game and Justin Herbert damaged his ribs. Their defense is yielding a league-high 5.7 yards per carry. The Niners easily could top 35 points, and Herbert could be pulled by the middle of the fourth quarter.
Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles (-11) vs. Washington Commanders
- Date: Monday, Nov. 14
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
I’m a sucker for big-spread favorites playing at home. The Eagles are averaging 28.1 points per game while giving up 16.9 — a gap on par with this spread. Washington’s backfield remains a work in progress, and Taylor Heinicke is still a bridge quarterback. In a critically important divisional matchup, the Eagles should play some of their best football of the season — which is saying a lot given their 8-0 record.
Against-the-spread prediction: Eagles
Moneyline winner: Eagles