The season continues to move at a rapid pace, and we find ourselves already making our picks and predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season. Let’s take a look at the NFL odds for this week so that we can determine our best bets for a somewhat lackluster slate of games.
NFL picks and predictions Week 5 | NFL lines and odds
As we get closer to Sunday kickoff, some of the Week 5 lines and odds tend to fall into place. The sharps have already made their big moves earlier in the week, and we can expect these numbers to remain somewhat stagnant unless injury news alters something. Let’s take a look at the odds for Week 5.
[metabet_core_odds_board league=”nfl” site_id=”profootballnetwork” hide_consensus=”yes” hide_location=”yes”]Sunday Week 5 NFL picks and predictions against the spread
Here are the Week 5 picks and predictions and NFL odds for Sunday’s games as of 3 PM ET on October 8.
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Time and channel: 9:30 AM ET, NFL Network
This game will take place in London as the NFL’s International Series kicks off. New York is off to a 1-3 start after getting their first win of the year in Week 4. The Jets beat the Titans 27-24 in overtime as nearly 6-point home underdogs.
Meanwhile, Atlanta let another lead slip away as the Washington Football Team beat them 34-30 at home. Even in the defeat, the one positive for Atlanta was that their offense finally started to click. Unfortunately for them, their top two WR options will not be traveling to London. Both Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage will be out for Week 5.
This line has moved from more than a field goal to just under it due to Atlanta’s injury news. The Jets defense put on a clinic against the Titans, hitting Ryan Tannehill seven times. If they can bring that same kind of effort against the Falcons, Matt Ryan might struggle with very limited weapons. I can see a big game from Kyle Pitts in this one, but Zach Wilson should be able to add another W to his short NFL résumé.
Jets vs. Falcons Prediction: Jets 21, Falcons 20
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)
Time and channel: 1 PM ET, FOX
The Minnesota Vikings looked terrible offensively last week. They fell to the Cleveland Browns after putting up just 7 points. However, their defense was impressive, but that might have been due more to Baker Mayfield’s recently disclosed shoulder injury than anything else.
The Lions continue to search for their first win of the year. They have struggled on both sides of the ball, and this week they will have serious concerns around their offensive line. Penei Sewell, the rookie offensive tackle taken No. 7 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, has an ankle injury. The team also placed Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow on injured reserve with a toe turf injury, while left tackle Taylor Decker is questionable.
However, even with all those offensive line injuries, 9.5 is a big spread to cover. The Vikings will win, but the Lions will put up a fight.
Lions vs. Vikings Prediction: Vikings 28, Lions 20
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Washington Football Team
Time and channel: 1 PM ET, FOX
The once-vaunted Washington defense has proven to be anything but in 2021. In their first four games of the year, they have allowed 20, 29, 43, and 30 points. Luckily for them, Taylor Heinicke has been able to score enough points to keep them at 2-2 on the year. Now, they must face one of the worst offenses in the league in hopes that their defense can somehow get right.
The Saints started off the year on fire by putting up 38 points on the Packers. Since then, they have struggled offensively, averaging just 276.8 yards per game. Alvin Kamara is struggling to find his place with Jameis Winston under center, and the team’s best offensive weapon has been Taysom Hill through four weeks.
This game should be a high-scoring affair as long as Winston can keep the ball moving.
Saints vs. Washington Prediction: Washington 30, Saints 27
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Houston Texans
Time and channel: 1 PM ET, CBS
After a heartbreaking loss to the Buccaneers, this might be just what the Patriots need to get right. I am not one to bet on road favorites laying more than a touchdown, but in this case, I am willing to lay any amount of points against the Texans. Davis Mills looked … awful — that’s the only word that comes to mind. He tossed 4 interceptions against the Bills last week en route to a 40-0 loss.
This might be one of my favorite Week 5 NFL picks. The Patriots are a much better team than the Texans, and Bill Belichick will be looking to get some revenge after a loss.
Patriots vs. Texans Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 14
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5)
Time and channel: 1 PM ET, CBS
When it rains for Miami, it pours. After a humiliating loss to a banged-up Colts team that left a lot of questions for the Dolphins to ponder, Miami’s reward is facing Tom Brady and the defending champions in Raymond James Stadium.
The only upside for the Dolphins is that Brian Flores should know how to defend a Brady-led offense. Although, it probably won’t matter unless Tampa plays sloppy football.
Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Dolphins 13
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Time and channel: 1 PM ET, FOX
With very few “marquee” matchups in the early slate, this has become one of the most intriguing games in the 1 PM window. After a tough start to the season, Green Bay has bounced back and put together a nice run. Cincinnati has also looked good and is tied for first place in the AFC North.
The Packers have scored at least 27 points in three straight games, but the Bengals’ defense has looked solid. Cincinnati has surrendered 18.8 points per game (8th) and just 323 yards per game (7th) — both are top 10 in the NFL.
I think Cincinnati can keep this one close and possibly get the win in front of their home crowd.
Packers vs. Bengals Prediction: Bengals 26, Packers 24
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
Time and channel: 1 PM ET, CBS
This one is tough because we do not know who will be the starting QB for the Broncos. Teddy Bridgewater is currently going through the concussion protocol, so it could be Drew Lock under center.
The Steelers have looked awful, but they are more consistent. I have more faith in them at home over the Broncos. Plus, I have a hard time seeing Mike Tomlin losing four straight games.
Broncos vs. Steelers Prediction: Steelers 21, Broncos 17
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Time and channel: 1 PM ET, FOX
The Cowboys gave Carolina their first loss of the season last week. Now, they return home to face Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Hurts has been a fantasy star this year, but that hasn’t translated to wins for his football team.
Christian McCaffrey is doubtful to play this week, but Chuba Hubbard looked decent replacing him. I think the Panthers bounce back at home and get into the win column.
Eagles vs. Panthers Prediction: Panthers 27, Eagles 20
Tennessee Titans (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Time and channel: 1 PM ET, CBS
The Titans are on a collision course with a disaster season. At 2-2, they have made their wins look difficult and their losses look embarrassing. The Jaguars are also a mess, but at least they showed some signs of life last Thursday. Tennessee should win, but this might be closer than we thought before the season.
Titans vs. Jaguars Prediction: Titans 24, Jaguars 20
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Time and channel: 4:05 PM ET, CBS
This line opened with Cleveland as the favorite. However, that did not last long, and now the Chargers are laying nearly a field goal at home. Justin Herbert has looked exceptional this season while Mayfield is struggling as he pushes through a shoulder injury. It is possible Mayfield doesn’t even play this week.
The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as the favorite. They are simply the better team in this one.
Browns vs. Chargers Prediction: Chargers 27, Browns 24
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
Time and channel: 4:05 PM ET, CBS
This is another line that could have moved after Monday Night Football, but what we have now feels right. The Bears did what was asked of them against the Lions. Still, the offense looked out of sync with Justin Fields. In a revenge game against the Raiders for Khalil Mack, Las Vegas should demonstrate they have moved past the Bears.
Bears vs. Raiders Prediction: Raiders 27, Bears 17
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Time and channel: 4:25 PM ET, FOX
These NFC West games are always headache-inducing to pick, and Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season is no different. Based on what we saw in Week 4, the Cardinals should be the superior team. The problem is that nothing is ever easy with the Cardinals, who have lost the last two at home to San Francisco.
49ers vs. Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals 30, 49ers 24
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Time and channel: 4:25 PM ET, FOX
In this NFC East showdown, the Dallas Cowboys will look to put a stranglehold on the division by beating their New York rivals. The Giants got their first win of the year last week against the Saints after Daniel Jones helped lead the team from an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter.
Dallas is in another tier compared to the Saints. Their offense is one of the best in the league, and now their defense is taking steps forward compared to 2020. This will also be the Cowboys’ third straight game at home. Look for them to dominate the Giants and force Jones into even more turnovers.
Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction: Cowboys 30, Giants 20
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Time and channel: 8:20 PM ET, NBC
This game was always going to be huge, but the current NFL standings make it even more important. The Bills have the chance to put two games between themselves and Kansas City in the race for home-field advantage. Meanwhile, the Chiefs slipping to 2-3 is hard to fathom.
Picking against the Chiefs at home in prime time is so hard to do. This crowd will be electric — Josh Allen will need to be perfect. The Chiefs should win a close one, but this has the potential to be a roller coaster for anyone betting it.
Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 34, Bills 31
Monday Night Football NFL Odds: NFL picks and predictions
Here are the Week 5 picks and predictions and NFL odds for Monday’s game.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Time and channel: 8:15 PM ET, ESPN
What appeared to be a spectacular Monday Night Football matchup when the schedule was released looks like a disaster right now. The Colts only have one win this year, and that’s because they battled a team in an even bigger mess (the Dolphins).
The Ravens have been far from perfect, but they are in a superb race for the AFC North. They simply cannot afford to lose games like this. Yet, they could get caught with their mind on their Week 6 matchup with the Chargers and make this tougher than it needs to be.
Colts vs. Ravens Prediction: Ravens 28, Colts 20