Week 12 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 11 weeks of data, could Week 12 be our most profitable yet? Sportsbooks have installed plenty of road favorites and big spreads — this is a unique betting board, and I’m here to walk you through the NFL picks for every game.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
NFL Sportsbook Promo Codes
Before we get into it, check out all the latest sportsbooks promos nationwide. If you are already signed up with a book or aren’t interested, continue to scroll down for our pick and prediction.
Note that sportsbook promo codes will only appear if you are in a legalized area. If you’re in a state that has not legalized sports betting, you’ll see a list of top fantasy sports operators, which are available in most states.
Week 12 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 12 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Chiefs/Panthers over 43
- Giants +5.5
- Colts +7.5
- Dolphins -7
- Titans/Texans under 42
- Vikings -3.5
- Commanders -10.5
- Broncos -5.5
- 49ers +2.5
- Cardinals/Seahawks under 47.5
- Eagles/Rams under 49
- Ravens/Chargers under 50
- Quentin Johnston longest reception over 22.5 yards
David Bearman’s Picks
- Patriots/Dolphins under 46
- Cowboys/Commanders over 45.5
- Packers -2.5
- Cardinals moneyline
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Caleb Williams over 201.5 passing yards
- Rome Odunze over 41.5 receiving yards
- Bucky Irving over 10.5 rush attempts
- Xavier Worthy over 31.5 receiving yards
- Marvin Harrison Jr. over 52.5 receiving yards
- J.K. Dobbins under 68.5 scrimmage yards
Detroit Lions (-7.5, 50.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Soppe: What are we supposed to do with this game?
In one corner, we have a Detroit Lions offense that, when humming, seems to be able to name its total. In the other, we have maybe the most volatile quarterback situation in the league and that’s saying something in a league where Jameis Winston is starting.
It seems like anything can happen from possession to possession with Anthony Richardson under center, but over the course of 60 minutes, games in which he started have had reasonably consistent results.
In his first career game, the Indianapolis Colts led the Jaguars by four points with six minutes to go before collapsing and losing by 10. Did you know that’s the only Richardson start in which Indy lost by more than six points?
Underdogs are 35-20-1 ATS in the past 56 games with a spread over six points and a closing total of 50+ points. My thought there is that such a projection implies that both teams are capable of scoring in a hurry, thus bringing a backdoor cover very much into the picture.
Pick: Colts +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 43) at Carolina Panthers
Katz: Could I end up looking foolish, chasing last week’s usage? Perhaps. You can chalk this one up to “I gotta feeling” if you want, but there is data behind it.
Patrick Mahomes and Worthy have not been able to connect on deep balls regularly, but Worthy gets at least a couple of chances each game, and there have been multiple that he had no business not being able to get his feet in bounds. At some point, that’s going to change. I think this is the week they finally link up for a long one, allowing Worthy to surpass this number on one reception.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Carolina Panthers allow the ninth-most passing yards per game and opponents to complete downfield throws at the fifth-highest rate in the league against them.
Pick: Xavier Worthy over 31.5 receiving yards
Soppe: Overs are 8-1-1 in the last 10 games when a double-digit favorite has a sub-45-point game total, and that is the unique situation in which we find ourselves here. With consecutive wins, even against low-level competition, the Panthers showed us signs of life the last time we saw them; with a bye week to reset for this young team, I think this offense has a little more upside than sportsbooks are crediting them.
Bryce Young has been better recently.
Better than his stats, as well.
He has 5 big-time throws this season. 4 of them came in the last 3 weeks.
50% of those 4 weren't completed passes. pic.twitter.com/Qsq6JHs8vx
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) November 15, 2024
Our Defensive+ Ranking metrics suggest that the Kansas City Chiefs are a bit overrated (12th best) by the public; if that proves accurate, the Panthers flirting with 20 points is certainly reasonable. Kansas City’s offense, on the other hand, ranks seventh in our custom metrics thanks in part to the best third-down unit in the league.
I’m betting that either the Chiefs get to 30 points or the Panthers to 20 — I think there’s a decent chance that both occur, but that’s more than we need.
Pick: Over 43
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 41.5) at New York Giants
Katz: In 10 games, Irving has only seen 11+ carries twice. I believe that is why we are getting this line at 10.5, but we want to know what will happen and not what has already happened.
Irving has carried the ball at least nine times in eight out of 10 games this season. In most of those games, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were throwing or facing negative game scripts.
Beginning this week, their schedule flips. The Bucs are now road favorites against a New York Giants defense that has allowed 168 rushing yards per game over their last three.
Finally in a position where they should be able to play from ahead, expect the snap share in this backfield to skew more toward Irving. He may very well set a career high in carries this week.
Pick: Bucky Irving over 10.5 rush attempts
Soppe: Sometimes it can be difficult to read where the public money is going to come in and push the line, but that’s not the case here. Baker Mayfield is coming off of the bye and getting Mike Evans back while the Giants are a franchise in flux and pivoting under center.
It’s easy to fall in love with the Buccaneers in this spot, but be careful. New York’s defense very quietly ranks sixth-best on third downs, fifth-best in pressure rate, and is currently pacing the NFL in sack rate (11.6%).
A conservative Giants “attack” could put the scoring opportunities at a premium for the Bucs, thus making a cover difficult. Mayfield is 2-5 ATS for his career with an average margin of -6.1 points to the spread when facing an opponent coming off of its bye,
The Giants have kept two games against Washington tight and were within a single score in losses to the Bengals and Steelers in the final quarter. They might not win this game, but I like them to keep things nip and tuck, making this spread more than enough to suck me in.
Pick: Giants +5.5
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7, 46)
Bearman: Seven weeks ago when these teams met, the number was at 36.5, and I said in this column I’d take it if the game was six quarters. They played to a 15-10 final without a sweat.
The biggest change is Tua Tagovailoa’s return and the re-arrival of the Miami Dolphins offense. However, we have seen a different offense in the last few weeks. It is a ball-controlled, run, and short-passes offense that has led to 10 drives of 10+ plays and 14 drives of 9+ plays in the four games Tua has been back. That chews up a lot of the clock, and it limits opponents’ possessions.
Meanwhile, even with Drake Maye behind center for the New England Patriots, the offense, while better, is still only averaging 19 PPG in the five full games he has played. They are still 31st in total yards, 21st in rushing, and dead last in passing yards per game.
The Dolphins’ defense, while erratic at times, is still holding opponents to 308 yards per game, ninth-best in the league. Only one of the last five and two of the last nine matchups between these two teams has gone over the posted 46. We are getting 10 more points than in Week 5, and while both offenses are better, it should still stay under this total.
Pick: Under 46
Soppe: I used this trend last week to get me on the Dolphins, and I’m using that money to double down on it again — Tagovailoa is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) for his career when favored by more than six points (overs are 6-2 in the eight past such games).
Miami’s explosive offense seems to be bubbling beneath the surface, and what better time to access that upside than when facing a defense that ranks 26th in red-zone touchdown rate, 27th in points allowed per drive, and 31st in turnover rate?
The Dolphins are the best offense in the NFL when it comes to limiting pressure when not blitzed, giving Tagovailoa plenty of time to pick apart this vulnerable unit. The Raiders have failed to clear 20 points in six of their past seven games; if that trend continues, I love where this ticket sits.
Pick: Dolphins -7
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-8.5, 42)
Soppe: I know, I know. It was just a single game, but I can’t be the only one underwhelmed by this Texans offense on Monday night when Nico Collins returned to action. Per my Week 12 Start/Sit preview:
“With his WR1 back, I didn’t expect a zero-TD, lowest-aDOT-of-the-season performance against the vulnerable Cowboys. Of course, all of that changes if the 77-yard touchdown to Collins on the first play stands, but it didn’t and this offense was far more conservative than I thought we’d see.
“I don’t think what we saw last week was a sign of things to come, but the Titans are the second-best defense in terms of yards per pass against, making them a less-than-perfect opponent for this offense to hit its stride.”
The Titans rank 10th in rush rate this season when the game is within a single score, and that has fueled the slowest-moving offense in the league. If they are operating in a controlled manner and continue to show well when it comes to ushering opponents off the field (third-best third-down unit in the league), this game could look something like Tennessee’s 23-13 loss last week against the Vikings.
On the trend side of things, unders are 6-2 during Stroud’s career when his team is favored by more than a field goal.
Pick: Under 42
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 39) at Chicago Bears
Katz: I hope I don’t come to regret backing this year’s worst rookie QB. Last week, in the Chicago Bears’ first game after firing OC Shane Waldron, the offense immediately looked much better. The Bears narrowly lost to the Packers in a game they would’ve won had Cairo Santos’ game-winning field goal not been deflected.
Williams completed 74% of his passes for 231 yards against a Packers defense allowing the 13th-fewest passing yards per game. This week, he’ll be going up against a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game.
It is worth noting that the Vikings have been stellar defensively over their last three, allowing a paltry 169 passing yards per game over that span. One could argue the defense has turned a corner. If that’s the case, then we will lose this bet. I am choosing to chalk it up to them facing Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, and Will Levis.
With the Bears likely to struggle running the ball, they will have no choice but to lean on the arm of their rookie passer. I think he can get there on raw volume. I would play this up to 209.5.
Pick: Caleb Williams over 201.5 passing yards
Katz: On the season, Odunze only has three games with more than 14 receiving yards. Looking purely at his hit rate on this number, this looks bad. However, we need to look forward and not backward.
Historically, we often see rookie WRs start to surge over the second half of the season, right around this time. I think we saw the beginning of that last week when Odunze commanded a 32% target share, leading the team.
In the Bears’ first game without Waldron, they ran 11-personnel sets nearly 90% of the time. That keeps Odunze on the field, allowing him to earn targets, which he does because he’s good at football.
The Vikings allow the fifth-most passing yards per game, and 71.2% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to WRs, the third-highest rate in the league.
With the Bears likely to see a negative game script, combined with the Vikings being a pass-funnel defense, there should be plenty of chances for Odunze, allowing him to comfortably beat this number. I would play this up to 45.5
Pick: Rome Odunze over 41.5 receiving yards
Soppe: I’m holding my Williams stock despite the underwhelming first 2+ months of his career, but this is a tough spot for the rookie. The aggressive Vikings own the best EPA defense in the league and have coughed up just 11 points per game during their current winning streak.
The Bears’ defense is viable, but with Sam Darnold owning the fourth-highest first-down passer rating in the league, I trust Minnesota to stay ahead of the chains and get to the mid-20s in terms of points. That’s enough for them to hold my money!
NFC North road favorites have covered seven of their past nine divisional games. This is a competitive division, but when sportsbooks tell you that the visitors are the better team, you’re wise to listen.
Pick: Vikings -3.5
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (-10.5, 45.5)
Bearman: This is a game I at first didn’t want any part of. But the more I looked, the more I realized neither team can stop anyone; with the way the Dallas Cowboys defense has been playing, the Washington Commanders could get this all by themselves.
Dallas has allowed an obscene 34.4 points per game over the last five games and sometimes has looked worse than that. My biggest concern is if the Cowboys can get anything done on offense as the Cooper Rush show has resulted in only 16 points over two games. But Washington’s defense has been less than impressive all season and has allowed at least 22 points in its last three games, and only the Eagles had a decent offense.
If the Giants can score 22 and the Steelers 27, the Cowboys can hit double digits. Washington has scored 27 or more points six times this season, and only the Panthers have a worse defense than the Cowboys.
Over tickets have cashed in seven of Dallas’ past nine games as an underdog in a divisional game. It’s only the third time I am picking an over this season, so let’s see some points.
Pick: Over 45.5
Soppe: Everything in Dallas seems to be crumbling, making them the perfect punching bag for a Washington team that is licking its wounds after consecutive losses following its 7-2 start. I’m not a doctor, but I’ve heard that the best fix for ailing ribs is to face the worst red-zone defense in the NFL, giving me optimism that Jayden Daniels can rediscover his early season form this weekend.
Teams are 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games when favored by more than six points with a rookie starting under center. My thought here is that sportsbooks post conservative lines understanding that the public is skeptical to lay a bunch of points with a relatively unproven commodity.
This spread is scary for a divisional game — I’ll step in front of it with my chest!
Pick: Commanders -10.5
Denver Broncos (-5.5, 41) at Las Vegas Raiders
Soppe: I gave you pro-rookie QB numbers within the Dallas/Washington write up, and I’m back with more: First-year quarterbacks have covered 14 of their past 21 games when favored on the road against a divisional foe. That’s a mouthful, but the general point from the Commanders pick remains: The public gets cold feet with these exceptional young signal callers.
Bo Nix is trending 📈
Put Nix squarely in the Rookie of the Year race with how he has been playing lately. It's truly remarkable how comfortable he's become in the pocket.
All 22 QB Breakdown: Bo Nix pic.twitter.com/2GFirvyl4h
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) November 19, 2024
When the Denver Broncos click, they have no problem winning by margins. They are 6-5 this year, and five of those victories have come by at least 14 points, including a 16-point win against these Las Vegas Raiders back in Week 5.
Pick: Broncos -5.5
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 47.5)
Bearman: I bought the “San Francisco might be back” mantra last week and fell flat, watching them lose at home to the Seahawks. Time to go the other way. Maybe the struggles from the first half of the season were more than just injuries.
Even with Christian McCaffrey back, San Fran needed a walk-off FG to beat Tampa and struggled mightily against a fading Seattle team, gaining only 277 yards on offense. Brock Purdy and the passing game continue to struggle, going over 260 yards once in the past six games. The once strong defense has allowed at least 20 points in six straight games.
The season is far from over as the San Francisco 49ers are only one back in the NFC West but now face road games against the Green Bay Packers and Bills. The Packers didn’t look great, needing a blocked FG to win in Chicago, but close wins are nothing new to a team that has won five one-score games this season. This might be another close one, but we only have to lay 2.5 here.
Pick: Packers -2.5
Soppe: In what could prove to be the most impactful games of the weekend, I give the slight edge to the road team. The argument could be made that both of these teams have played below expectations, but what is going to change in Green Bay, Wisc.?
Jordan Love is putting the ball in harm’s way at a high rate and has shown no real signs of slowing down in that regard. The Packers don’t have much in the way of health excuses that are trending in the right direction or players thriving in a new role, a benefit of the doubt that the 49ers get.
Christian McCaffrey’s usage is already back to bellcow mode, and as he works up to speed, he is trending in the direction of one of the few backs that can impact outcomes in a significant way. San Francisco also has Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall trending and looking good in a new role. If George Kittle returns to action as expected, the Week 12 version of this offense could be very close to the unit that ran through the NFC last winter.
Love is 4-7 ATS for his career when the spread is within three points (10-7 otherwise), and while his team has been grinding out wins, each of its past three victories have come by three or fewer points.
Pick: 49ers +2.5
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 47.5)
Katz: I’ve been somewhat critical of Harrison this season, but recent data has me convinced the problem is not the player. The Arizona Cardinals haven’t been giving Harrison layup targets — the kid has been forced to do everything himself. All things considered, he’s done quite the job.
Over the bye week, I suspect the Cardinals coaching staff may have done some things to really try and take advantage of their talented rookie, and this couldn’t be a more perfect spot.
The Seattle Seahawks are an average pass defense, but they really like to use press coverage, which they do 72% of the time. Harrison cooks press coverage.
I would play this up to 55.5 and would consider taking alt lines up to 100.
Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. over 52.5 receiving yards
Bearman: I am going to keep riding the Cardinals express until they either kick me off or the sportsbooks give them some respect. For the third time in the last four Arizona games, I think the wrong team is favored here. You can give the Seahawks all the credit you want for beating the Niners in San Francisco last week, but that was the first time they showed up in a month and only the second time since the 3-0 start.
Meanwhile, Arizona has been one of the best teams in football for the last seven weeks. Since a 1-3 start, the Cardinals have won five of six, beating the Niners, Chargers, Dolphins, Bears, and Jets, and the last two were by a combined 60-15 score.
The offense is rolling, averaging 29.3 points per game over the last month. The rushing game is fifth-best in the league, averaging 149.4 yards per game, which is Seattle’s weakness. The Seahawks haven’t been able to stop anyone on the ground, allowing 138.6 yards per game.
If you are worried about it being on the road, the Cardinals have already won games in San Francisco, Miami and took Buffalo to the end. And it’s not like Seattle has been lighting it up at home, losing four in a row in front of the 12th Man.
Our PFN metrics have the Cardinals with a 59% chance to win.
Pick: Cardinals moneyline
Soppe: Kyler Murray and Geno Smith are more than capable of putting points on the board, but both have been prone, at times, to inconsistent play; that lack of stability has me trending away from a shootout projection.
Like their offenses, these defenses have a wide range of outcomes. I don’t need a 17-14 final to get home — if one of these defenses steps up, that might well be enough. In four of Arizona’s past five games, a team has failed to clear 15 points. In each of Seattle’s past four games, a team hasn’t cleared 20 points.
Unders are 17-8 (68%) over the past 25 instances in which an NFC West battle had a total north of 45 points, contests that often feature a feeling-out period that melts the clock without much in the way of fireworks.
Pick: Under 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 49) at Los Angeles Rams
Soppe: There are elite skill position players all over the place in this game, and that is pushing this total up past where I am comfortable. Since Week 7, we are looking at two of the three best defenses in the entire NFL by total EPA. I’ll take that to the bank with a total this high that is only going to require a few consecutive stops to put us in a great position.
I also like the fact that both of these teams are more than capable of running the ball at a high rate. Saquon Barkley captains a Philadelphia Eagles offense that leads the league in rush rate (55.2%; league rate: 43.9%), and Kyren Williams has proven to be a chain-moving option since the beginning of last season.
Unders are 8-2 in Jalen Hurts’ past 10 games as a road favorite — I like this total in a variety of game scripts, but if sportsbooks have this handicapped correctly, extended Philadelphia drives in the fourth quarter could secure this ticket.
Pick: Under 49
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 50) at Los Angeles Chargers
Katz: The return of Gus Edwards didn’t cut into Dobbins’ snap share, but it did result in his rush share falling to 58%. That was against a weak Bengals run defense in a game the Los Angeles Chargers led throughout.
This week, the Chargers are unlikely to have a consistent lead against the Baltimore Ravens. Additionally, the Ravens are a pass-funnel defense. They allow the most passing yards per game in the league, but the second-fewest rushing yards per game.
Dobbins’ rushing total by itself is around 50.5. I do think he goes under, but we’ll gladly take another 18 yards, as I don’t believe it is probable Dobbins amasses 18 yards through the air.
Dobbins has a 10.4% target share on the season and ran a mere seven routes last week. His passing game role is being overstated in this line. I would play this down to 65.5.
Pick: J.K. Dobbins under 68.5 scrimmage yards
Soppe: Lamar Jackson and Company look to bounce after a slugfest in Pittsburgh, and while I think this games looks drastically different, I don’t think we are getting all the way to 50 points.
Both of these offenses function at a bottom-10 pace, leaving us in a low-possession-count spot; with the metrics that the Chargers are putting forth consistently on the defensive side of the ball (second-best red-zone unit and fourth in EPA), that’s enough to cast doubt that either of these teams clears 25 points.
Unders are 49-24-2 (67.1%) in the past 75 prime-time games featuring a home underdog, the situation in which we find ourselves for the final game of Week 12. I like this game to be a competitive and entertaining one but not one filled with fantasy football goodness.
Pick: Under 50
Soppe: I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do think this game will be competitive, and if Johnston can make a big play, that’ll help.
The Ravens’ secondary has been vulnerable; that’s no secret, and the further you extend down the field, the worse it gets. On balls thrown 15+ yards, Baltimore ranks 25th in touchdown rate, 27th in interception rate, 28th in completions percentage, and 29th in yards per pass.
Why do I think that’ll be so impactful in this spot? The Ravens rank 28th in blitz rate this season, and when Justin Herbert has time, he’s willing to use Johnston’s athletic profile to pick up chunk plays.
Johnston’s aDOT, 2024:
- When blitzed: 9.2 yards
- When not blitzed: 17.8 yards
The underdog Chargers figure to be in a pass-centric script, and if you give me a few deep targets, I think we get there with relative ease.
Pick: Quentin Johnston longest reception over 22.5 yards