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    NFL Overtime Rule Changes: How Titans’ proposal could upend football game theory

    What are the strategic implications of the Tennessee Titans' outside-the-box NFL overtime rule change proposal?

    If the NFL‘s primary intention is to end overtime games after one or two possessions, the league should absolutely adopt the Tennessee Titans’ proposed rule change. Because that would be the most likely outcome of adopting the Titans’ idea, which will be presented to ownership for a vote at the annual meeting later this month.

    Proposed overtime rule changes

    On Wednesday morning, the NFL revealed the two team-submitted overtime rule change proposals. The NFL’s Competition Committee next week will announce its plans for overtime.

    Currently, the rule is each team gets to possess the ball at least once unless the team that receives the opening kickoff of overtime scores a touchdown or allows a safety on the first possession. The receiving team wins in the first scenario and loses in the second.

    But since the Bills lost in the Divisional Round after allowing the Chiefs to drive the length of the field for a touchdown on overtime’s first possession, there has been a renewed push to guarantee each quarterback gets at least one possession.

    Colts, Eagles propose overtime rule change

    That’s exactly what the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles want to see happen. They both submitted a proposal that will allow each team to possess the ball at least once in overtime.

    If the team that receives the first kickoff of OT scores a touchdown, they must kick off to their opposition. If there is still a tie after both teams possess it once, the next team to score wins.

    This is the most logical (and popular) idea, and the one in our view that has the best chance of being adopted.

    Titans’ revolutionary overtime rule change

    The Titans’ plan, meanwhile, is totally out of the box and a bit gimmicky in our opinion. It’s a fusion of the current rule and the Colts/Eagles proposal.

    It would, according to the NFL, “allow both teams an opportunity to possess the ball in overtime unless the team with the first possession scores a touchdown and a successful two-point try.”

    In other words, there is a very real chance that one quarterback will still never get to touch the ball in overtime. Teams that score a touchdown on the first possession will have little disincentive to simply kick the extra point and a ton of incentive to go for two in an attempt to end the game. Even if they fail in that two-point try, they would simply have to keep the opposing team out of the end zone to win — which is quite likely.

    And if the team that scores a TD on the opening drive of OT goes for two and fails, the game is all but guaranteed to end on the next possession. Either the team that was on defense first in overtime scores a touchdown, kicks the extra point, and wins, or is held out of the end zone and loses.

    This, combined with the scenario in which one team kicks a field goal and the other doesn’t (or if there’s a safety on the opening possession), makes it very likely that overtime games will rarely reach a third possession.

    Certainly, this rule change would add a whole other level of intrigue and strategy. And it certainly would be a ton of fun. We’re just not sure it would do much to ensure the best team wins.

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