The NFL MVP race largely comes down to the quarterback on one of the best teams in football. In each of the last 10 years and in 15 of the past 16, the award has gone to a QB, with Adrian Peterson’s 2,000-yard season in 2012 being the lone exception.
This year will likely be the same, with Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson as the front-runners. But what about Offensive Player of the Year? Four straight and five of the last six winners have gone to non-quarterbacks, making this topic a lot more interesting.
So who are our top contenders in NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds? Tyreek Hill (+125) and Christian McCaffrey (+125) are co-favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook right now and deservingly so. But can the recent emergence of A.J. Brown play a factor in the race?
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds: Can A.J. Brown Catch Up to Tyreek Hill?
Brown (+1000) is setting records with his sixth consecutive game with 125+ yards, the first player in NFL history to do so. He has at least six catches in each of those games and is on pace for 127 receptions for 1,995 yards this season.
Brown has helped guide the Philadelphia Eagles to an NFL-best 7-1 record and seen his odds shorten from +2200 to +1000 this past weekend. However, both those numbers are not even tops in the NFL as Hill leads Brown by one reception (61 to 60) and is on pace for an NFL-record 2,155 yards.
Hill stated his candidacy right from the beginning with an 11-catch, 215-yard, two-TD game in Week 1 at the Chargers. He also leads NFL wideouts with eight touchdowns. After opening at +1100, he is now down to +125. If you haven’t bet him already, it might be too late.
Brown would likely have to pass Hill in both those categories and set the NFL record for yards (currently 1,964 by Calvin Johnson) to win the award, as McCaffrey isn’t going quietly either. The 49ers RB has scored at least one TD in all eight games this season and has now scored one in an NFL-record 17 consecutive games.
McCaffrey also leads the NFL in rushing and is second to Hill in combined rushing/receiving yards. Much like Hill, the price is now +125, well below the value you could’ve received weeks ago.
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If betting today, the value is on Brown, who is rapidly closing in on both Hill and CMC in all categories. If he continues the 125+ yard pace, he could be the NFL’s first 2,000-yard receiver before Hill. If you already have a Hill or CMC ticket like I do, getting +1000 while it lasts is not a bad hedge here.
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