Here we are, football is back! It has been a long offseason since the Super Bowl back in February. We had a little taste of football with the arrival of the doomed AAF, then another little taste with the preseason. Now we have the main course. 17 weeks of glorious regular-season action that comes fast and furious between now and January. So what better way to get right back into it than by digging into the NFL odds for Week 1 totals?
All season our team will be here guiding you through the various different angles and bets that you might be considering each week. My job is to go through and pick out some totals that might be in a position for us to take advantage of. I will be doing this using a mixture of PFN’s own film room, stats, and opportunities. The ultimate aim will be to try and find four or five totals where we can look to take advantage and maximize profit.
The important aspect for this week is holding penalties. There has been a number of these penalties during this preseason. The emphasis seems to have been placed on these calls right now in the NFL. Holding penalties are a major killer of drives. If this is the hot penalty this season, it could lead to a wave of low scoring. Until the situation corrects itself the way roughing the passer did last season, keep the holding penalties in mind.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This pick is likely to be going a little bit against the grain compared to the rest of the NFL betting community. In fact, I am also going against the sharps on this one, as 94% of the money has been going on the over. It also turns out that I am going up against our very own PFN handicapper Chris Smith. Chris has taken the over in this one in his weekly picks. However, something I saw in the third week of the preseason has me very concerned. In fact, I was so concerned I asked our PFN Film Room to look into my concern to help validate my point.
PFN Film Room study
One of the tools that separates PFN from other gambling sites is the ability for us to lean on our excellent Film Room department. When we have a hunch that could affect a bet, we back it up with a great group of people that can look into the film and bring us quality information. They worked hard to validate my biggest concern in this game.
That concern is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line. The Buccaneers had their offensive line in for virtually the whole first half and they were terrorized by the Cleveland Browns defensive line. The offense could not get any rhythm and was actually shut out in the first half of that game. It was just the preseason, but the results were so bad it had me concerned.
Last season, Dirk Koetter hid the deficiencies of this offensive line by going to max protect schemes, buying his quarterback more time to distribute the ball. In general, the Bruce Arians scheme does not utilize max protect very much, and that could leave Jameis Winston running for his life.
Now I give you that the 49ers defense is not the same quality as the Browns. However, Nick Bosa should be on the field and causing havoc. The expectations are that this game between the Buccaneers and 49ers will be an offensive showcase, but the offensive line for the Buccaneers could kill that.
Additionally, we have the San Francisco 49ers possibly still easing Jimmy Garoppolo back in, and with a very limited, and inexperienced group of receivers. Being on the road, with the potential of inclement weather, there is a very real chance the 49ers keep this game close to the chest. They will try to pick apart the Buccaneers newly-revamped defense using newly-acquired Tevin Coleman and their reliable backfield asset of Matt Breida.
While everyone else tunes in this week expecting a track meet, I see this game being much closer. With two underrated defenses coming to the fore, and the Buccaneers offensive line proving to be their Achilles heel early in this one. Stats only mean so much in this one because of all the changes, but the Buccaneers saw the under hit on 5-of-8 occasions last year, and Bruce Arians saw the under hit on 42-of-83 occasions as head coach of the Cardinals.
1u – Under 50 Total Points | -110
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
The same film above led me directly to this game because of that Browns defensive line. The Titans are without their left-tackle Taylor Lewan who is suspended. That will hurt an offense that already has question marks. Against that defensive line, this has the feel of the Titans using a heavy dose of the run with Derrick Henry. They will want to bulk up the Titans defensive line and tire them out with constant tackling. When they do pass, it is likely to be short sharp passes to the likes of Delanie Walker and Adam Humphries, just constantly churning and moving the chains.
In a similar vein, the Browns offensive line has question marks as well. Baker Mayfield was constantly dealing with pressure in his preseason outings, and the Titans have a solid enough group with which to make it hard for the Browns. Everyone is expecting the Browns to come out and light up this Tennessee secondary, but Mike Vrabel has demonstrated he can be a very astute tactician when it comes to defense.
I fully expect him to keep this one tight. Last season this Titans team allowed just 18.9 points per game, the third-best mark in the league. Meanwhile, both offenses were in the bottom-third last season. Even though the Browns will improve, it will be tough this week against the Titans.
2u – Under 45.5 Total Points | -110
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The Packers and Bears kick us off on Thursday night in a game many are expecting to come right down to the wire. Last season, the Bears allowed an average of just 17.5 points per game at home and scored around 21. That number is slightly skewed because of the last game of the season where the Bears put up 48 points.
Interestingly, the Packers averaged just 23.25 points per game on the road. They only scored over 25 points in one of those eight games. Removing that anomalous 44 in their final road game, they actually averaged just 20.3 points per game on the road.
Now if we look at Matt LaFleur in Tennessee last year we can see that his team managed to score just 16.5 points per game on the road. Now there is a caveat to that. LaFleur did not have a quarterback of the quality of Aaron Rodgers.
However, outdoors in Soldier Field on the opening night of the season against one of the best defenses in the league, will be a tough situation for the Packers. I was undecided on this line until it shifted up to 46.5, moving across the 45 point mark. I expect this one to finish around 24-21.
1u – Under 46.5 Total Points | -110
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
It is completely understandable that people are expecting fireworks in this one. These games are nearly always entertaining, but this one could break the mold. The two best skill position offensive players on both teams have left, and both have extremely underrated defenses this season.
Both the Pats and Steelers have strong offensive lines and good ground games, with workhorse backs, so expect to see plenty of running early in this one. It would not surprise me if we head into the half along the lines of 10-7. Both teams will look to control the clock and keep the ball out of the opposing quarterback’s hands.
The biggest chance this hits the over is if one team gets up by 10 or more points at half time and the opposing offense has to shift philosophy in the second half. This line originally opened at 53 so the fact it is down to 50.5 now tells you that is where the smart money is heading on this one.
1u – Under 50.5 Total Points | -110
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
There is no game I am more excited for this weekend. How is that Kilff Kingsbury air raid offense going to work in the NFL? Can their defensive backs stand up and be counted without their two best players on the field? There are so many questions surrounding the Cardinals and it is going to be fun to see it work out on the field.
The Lions will not have faced anything like this offense in the NFL and they will need to adjust on the fly. While that is happening the Cardinals could rack up plenty of points. However, with their defensive woes, they could let quite a few go back the other way as well.
This could be the perfect opportunity for Matt Stafford to show he is healthy and fully firing, and he should move the ball at ease through the air as the likes of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones victimize the Cardinals cornerbacks. The only thing that could derail the fun in the desert is if that Cardinals offensive line sabotages this offense. That is the only reason this is not a two-unit play for me this weekend.
1u – Over 47 Total Points | -110
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