Every week, we’ll be taking questions from readers for our Friday NFL news mailbag, answering questions on any number of topics across the league. In order to submit questions to the mailbag, be sure to join our Discord server and ask questions in the mailbag channel!
This week we cover whether or not Dan Campbell could be on the hot seat, the early MVP race, which NFL games are the most exciting this week, and why offenses are struggling.
What is Dan Campbell’s Future in Detroit?
“Do you get the sense that, even though Dan Campbell has a 6-year contract, that he could ever be on the hot seat? These are the same issues the lions had last year, and at what point do they need to show improvement on these areas? Or, is the franchise tied to him no matter the result?” – Clinic Cap (Jack)
This year, I don’t think Campbell is at huge risk of being on the hot seat. Frankly, given who his quarterback is, he’s overperforming. The Lions have many of the same issues as last year, but those issues are smaller in magnitude. They’ve been in games more consistently and have already recorded a win – it took until Week 13 last year to do that.
Not only that, they’ve simply been more competitive. Last year, they recorded an average point differential of minus-8.4 points per game. This year, the point differential per game is minus-0.3 points per game.
Nearly beating the only undefeated team in the NFL is a good sign of progress for the team, especially a team shorthanded along the offensive line and without a franchise quarterback. There’s a reason he’s not on the shortlist of coaches to be fired first, according to Vegas bookies.
And the general feeling around people who talk about Detroit is that the vibes are good. And why fire a guy when the vibes are good?
Early NFL MVP Pick
“Who is your pick for NFL MVP after Week 4, and why?” – Jacob M
I’ve never loved the MVP award because of the word “valuable,” which, by the strictest standard, limits us to just select quarterbacks. We already have an award for the best quarterback in the NFL – it’s the All-Pro designation at quarterback.
I would rather give the MVP award to the best player, regardless of position. Historically, that has generally tracked better with what it does, though it has an offensive bias and in particular for running backs and quarterbacks.
But we’ve seen a few defenders win it as well as a kicker, so there’s something to be said about the potential for the award to reward diverse player position groups.
That would mean looking at players like Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Trent Williams, Creed Humphrey, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Chris Jones, Micah Parsons, Aaron Donald, Nick Bosa, Talanoa Hufanga, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jalen Ramsey, and Pat Surtain II.
But they aren’t really candidates unless we see an unprecedented season, particularly from a running back. So if I’m restricted to just selecting a quarterback, I consider Lamar Jackson to be the best candidate.
It’s not because he’s the best-performing quarterback on the field this year – that honor could belong to Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Patrick Mahomes. But rather, he’s the best-performing quarterback given what he’s working with. His offensive line is in relative shambles and his receiving corps is thinner than any high-performance quarterback this year, and he’s still putting up elite numbers.
Best Week 5 Game on NFL Slate?
“What week 5 game do you project will exceed expectations the most by an entertainment factor?” – TheBigHerman
After watching the Thursday Night Football game, I’m not sure entertaining football is even possible.
This slate of games doesn’t have anything that immediately sticks out to me as entertaining. Anything can happen, of course, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Detroit Lions-New England Patriots game turns into an entertaining shootout given the relative state of the Lions’ offense and defense.
But the primetime matchups don’t immediately seem like great games, with what appears to be a mismatch between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night followed by an even greater mismatch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders.
Before the season started, both seemed like excellent possible games, and they still could be if the Bengals or Raiders turn their seasons around. But for now, both seem like duds – even with the added flavor of a heated divisional rivalry.
I think the best game could be the Los Angeles Chargers and Cleveland Browns game despite the fact that we have a backup quarterback in for the Browns and an injured Justin Herbert. But I like the explosive potential of both offenses and think that there are some individual defenders on both ends – like Myles Garrett and Khalil Mack – that could make for some exciting moments.
What’s With the Slow Start for Offenses in 2022?
“I am fascinated by why offenses aren’t living up to previous point scoring this year. I understand teams have moved to more deep zone coverage, but wouldn’t that normally mean we would see much more effective running games? Like, the Lions have been great running the ball but otherwise it doesn’t seem to make a difference.” – DoctorBops
I did write a little bit about why NFL offenses aren’t scoring a week ago, and I encourage you to check that piece out.
In short, the best available evidence we have suggests that the NFL’s move towards two-high safety defenses has played a significant role in how anemic NFL offenses have been, with not much concurrent uptick in running performance.
We have seen some run-forward offenses establish themselves, however. In addition to the Lions, the Browns and Seahawks have done an excellent job finding ways to score points without explosive quarterback play. The other side of that is we’re seeing some run-focused offenses falter – like the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, and New York Giants.
While losing a safety in the box might help enable the running game, what really matters is the difference between the number of players in the box and the number of blockers available in the running game. Offenses are moving blockers out of the tackle box and out wide.
So as defenses move players out of the box, offenses are moving their own blockers out. And if the offense wants to run the ball and move more players back into the box, defenses are likely to respond by spinning a safety down and recommitting to defending the run. So it’s much more difficult to really make new gains in the run game.
In fact, it’s very possible to run a two-high shell with players in the box – it simply takes a safety with range to bail out of the box to get to their landmarks, something many defenses feature these days.
For a more detailed statistical analysis, check out the piece referenced above.