We have reached midway point of the 2024 NFL season. Barring some major surprises, the MVP is going to be one of a handful of quarterbacks. No player at any other position has a chance.
One of the favorites is Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. His status as a frontrunner is not surprising to anyone. What is more unexpected is Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels being a legitimate contender. Could the rookie win both Rookie of the Year and NFL MVP in the same season?
Lamar Jackson vs. Jayden Daniels for NFL MVP
Ahead of Week 10, the MVP odds for these two incredibly talented quarterbacks are as follows:
- Lamar Jackson +300
- Jayden Daniels +1000
Odds for MVP shift weekly based on performance. However, the favorites have remained at the top for several weeks now. Jackson is currently tied with Josh Allen (+300) and running slightly ahead of Patrick Mahomes (+450) in terms of the shortest odds.
Jared Goff (+700) is ahead of Daniels. However, I don’t quite understand that one. Goff is certainly playing some incredible football, but with him throwing so few passes (26.4 per game compared to 35.6 per game in 2023), I really don’t see the path to him winning MVP.
This race will likely come down to Jackson, Allen, Mahomes, and possibly Daniels. So, let’s focus on Daniels, compare his resume to Jackson’s, and see if there’s a path for the rookie to make history.
Lamar Jackson
It’s pretty wild that Jackson won MVP last season. Consider his final stats. He threw for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions, adding 821 yards and another five scores on the ground.
Jackson’s on-field performance was amazing. The Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But statistically, he was one of the weakest MVP winners of all time.
This year, through nine games, Jackson is running well ahead of his 2023 numbers. He’s already thrown for 2,379 yards and 20 touchdowns against just two interceptions, and he’s run for 505 yards and two scores on the ground.
Lamar Jackson ranks among qualified QB this season
Pass Rating 1st
Pass TD t-2nd
Pass TD/INT t-1st
Pass Yards 2nd
Pass Yards/Att 1st
Rush Yards 1st pic.twitter.com/NiwUtRZ47y— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 4, 2024
There are two potential hiccups in Jackson’s quest for a second consecutive and third total MVP award.
First, the Ravens are not going to be the No. 1 seed. The past seven winners have all come from a No. 1 seed. With three losses already, including a head-to-head loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Ravens don’t have a realistic path to overtake the defending champions as the AFC’s top seed. Currently, they aren’t even leading their division.
Second, Jackson just won it last year. Fair or unfair, all major sports have shown a reluctance to give the award to the same guy over and over again. That might just be the path Daniels needs to pry the award away from the favorite.
Jayden Daniels
Barring injury, the Rookie of the Year award is a foregone conclusion for Daniels. The Commanders’ star quarterback is -1400 and climbing by the week. It’s really hard to even come up with a plausible scenario where Bo Nix or Caleb Williams are able to overtake him.
Would voters really give Daniels Rookie of the Year and MVP at the same time? It’s never happened before in modern NFL history. Yes, technically Jim Brown did it in 1957. Also, that was 1957 and well before the merger, which is as far back as I go for historical analysis.
Daniels’ stats are a little skewed by the one game he left in the first quarter due to his rib injury. However, he’s still thrown for 1,945 yards and nine touchdowns against two interceptions, while adding 459 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Daniels’ 71.5% completion percentage, if it holds, would break the rookie record of 67.8% currently held by Dak Prescott.
We are 9 weeks into the NFL season and Jayden Daniels has STILL not had a single game with a negative EPA/play — the only remaining starting QB that can say that 🤯 pic.twitter.com/EII7GtkhG4
— The Commish (@CommishFilmRoom) November 5, 2024
A key factor in Daniels’ chances will be how high of a playoff seed the Commanders earn. Currently, the Detroit Lions look like the best team in football. At 7-1, they are one game up on the Commanders in the loss column.
It’s not imperative to Daniels’ MVP hopes for the Commanders to earn the No. 1 seed, but it would certainly help. At the same time, the No. 2 seed seems very likely at this point. While the recent MVPs have all come from top seeds, we’ve seen many MVPs come from No. 2 seeds in the past as well.
Ultimately, it will all come down to the second half of the season. If Jackson can continue at his current pace, it’s his award to lose. But if Jackson stumbles a bit, Daniels continues to play at a high level, and the Commanders surge to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, there is a world where Daniels could make history as the first rookie since the merger to win both MVP and Rookie of the Year honors.