Is the NFL MVP race over with three weeks left? Poor performances by multiple QB candidates over the last few weeks, combined with MVP-caliber play week in and week out by Brock Purdy, has the San Francisco 49ers‘ gunslinger (-200 at FanDuel, -190 at DraftKings) as the odds-on favorite to win the award, opening up a huge gap between him and other contenders.
Is it that simple, or are we all overlooking non-QBs such as Niners RB Christian McCaffrey and Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill?
Brock Purdy Is Odds-On Favorite for NFL MVP Award in 2023
Purdy has done his part. He leads the NFL in passer rating and touchdowns, is second in passing yards and completion percentage, and is the quarterback of the best team in the NFL.
Purdy entered Week 15 at +175 to win the award, neck and neck with Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
MORE: Early Week 16 Predictions, ATS Picks
However, the Cowboys got blown out in Buffalo, with Dak being held to a measly 134 passing yards and no TDs for the first time since Week 1. Purdy, meanwhile, had an almost flawless game vs. the Arizona Cardinals, passing for four touchdowns with no picks.
That combo has led to Purdy being the first player this season to be odds-on (minus money) to win the award.
Lamar Jackson Leads the Group Chasing Purdy for NFL MVP
Lamar Jackson (+475) takes over the second spot after leading the Baltimore Ravens to a 16-point win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens continue to set the pace in the AFC, which will keep Jackson in the race, especially if he keeps making Harry Houdini plays like he did Sunday night.
Repeat after me:
I refuse to get desensitized to ridiculous Lamar Jackson plays.
I refuse to get desensitized to ridiculous Lamar Jackson plays. pic.twitter.com/aEc0iKHtSs
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) December 18, 2023
After Prescott (+700) is Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (+800), who finished runner-up last season to Patrick Mahomes. Hurts was among the front-runners before back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Niners. He was outplayed by his fellow MVP candidates in both games, which will make it hard for him to win.
MORE: PFN’s Free NFL Playoff Predictor Tool
Tua Tagovailoa (+2500) had a strong performance in Week 15, but a poor Week 14 game on MNF will stay in the memory of voters. Mahomes (+2500) is just not looking like the Mahomes of old, which leaves Josh Allen’s (+1600) resurgence as the only other QB with a shot at the award.
But for that to happen, Allen’s Bills would probably have to win the AFC East and hope Jackson’s Ravens stumble while Purdy comes down to earth.
Could Tyreek Hill or Christian McCaffrey Still Win the NFL MVP Award?
But what about non-quarterbacks? Keep in mind that a non-QB hasn’t won the award since RB Adrian Peterson in 2012 — QBs have won it in 15 of the last 16 years.
Purdy has argued that Christian McCaffrey (+1000) is the real MVP of the 49ers, which is hard to argue as he leads the NFL (by a lot) in rushing and all-purpose yards. However, Derrick Henry ran for 2,027 yards in 2020 and didn’t sniff the award.
As for wide receivers, it has never happened and likely won’t, even if Hill (+2500) can break the NFL record and get to 2,000 yards. It just doesn’t happen, even if Hill is making the best case yet.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.