The last non-quarterback to win NFL MVP was Adrian Peterson back in 2012, when he ran for 2,097 rushing yards, falling just 19 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season record.
This season, Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, while he has made a tremendous case to break the 10-year streak for quarterbacks, only has the fourth-shortest NFL MVP odds. With Hill on pace to have a historical season, why isn’t he in greater consideration to win MVP?
NFL MVP Odds: Is Tyreek Hill a Legitimate Candidate?
If there was any non-quarterback deserving of winning NFL MVP, no player would have a better argument than Hill. Through 12 games, he already has 1,481 receiving yards and is on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964 receiving yards.
Not only is Hill on track to surpass Johnson’s record, but he’s on pace to break it with much better efficiency.
Calvin Johnson ran more routes through 11 games of his record-breaking 2012 season (530) than Tyreek Hill is on pace to run in 17 games this year (492)
Unparalleled stuff we're witnessing
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Yet, despite being the most dangerous weapon in the NFL and having the best season for a wide receiver in league history, Hill doesn’t even have the shortest NFL MVP odds on his own team.
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Currently at PointsBet/Fanatics, Hill’s +800 odds trail three quarterbacks, as Brock Purdy (+200), Dak Prescott (+225), and Lamar Jackson (+550) are the top three favorites.
Why Isn’t Hill Getting Enough MVP Consideration?
With Hill’s dominant season, and no QB separating themselves like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, and others in recent years, many people are confused by the lack of serious consideration for the Dolphins wide receiver.
According to Wyatt Satre, a trader at PointsBet/Fanatics, it comes down to the recent history of the award.
“Even though Tyreek has put up impressive numbers, I don’t think he has a legitimate MVP case,” Satre said in a company newsletter.
“Historically MVP has been a QB award, so it would be an uphill climb for him to win it even if he does break the receiving yardage record. We just saw a historic triple crown from Cooper Kupp a couple seasons ago and he only received 1 of 50 MVP votes. Tyreek would have to separate himself from Tua [Tagovailoa] down the stretch, which seems unlikely since they are correlated.”
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