A piece of advice: Don’t go into a Buffalo Bills bar and yell, “Saquon for MVP!” For the Bills Mafia, dem’s fightin’ words.
The same advice applies to Bengals bars, Ravens bars, and Eagles bars — unless you want to get a handful of peanuts thrown in your face, that’s where you keep your Most Valuable Player choice to yourself. But considering the tightness of the 2024 NFL MVP race, you might not be able to help yourself.
Rarely do you see a season in which the field is so closely bunched up in January. Last year, Lamar Jackson had it wrapped up early, which was reflected by the fact that he earned 49 first-place votes and racked up 493 votes in total, a whopping 341 ahead of second-place finisher Dak Prescott.
In 2022, winner Patrick Mahomes topped Jalen Hurts by 297, while in 2021, Aaron Rodgers took home 490 points, as compared to runner-up Tom Brady and his 225.
Here in 2024, it’s not nearly as cut-and-dried.
You’ve got Josh Allen having a career season in upstate New York. You’ve got Joe Burrow going full Madden in Ohio. You’ve got Barkley looking to become the first running back to grab the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012. And you’ve got Jackson looking for his second in a row and third overall.
All four have legitimate cases, and the voters — who must turn in their ballots immediately after the clock on the final game of Week 18 ticks down to zero — are going to have a tough, tough decision on their hands. So let’s discuss, in alphabetical order by last name, the candidates’ cases for MVP (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Does Josh Allen Deserve MVP?
multiple nutty plays from josh allen every week
this time? leg sweep to near 10-yard gain pic.twitter.com/11a7vMYadM
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 30, 2024
- Odds: -350
- Passing Yards: 3,731
- Passing Touchdowns: 28
- Rushing Yards: 531
- Rushing Touchdowns: 12
- Interceptions: 6
- Completion Percentage: 63.6%
- PFN QB+: 92.3
- Buffalo Bills Record: 13-3
The Skinny: Allen has been in the MVP mix for the previous two seasons, finishing fifth in the voting last year and third in 2022. Here in ’24, he led the Bills to quality wins over Detroit and Kansas City, combining for 624 passing yards, 123 rushing yards, and seven total touchdowns in those two games. Both of those rumbles were national telecasts, meaning out-of-market voters enjoyed 120 minutes of Allen doing Allen things.
Does Saquon Barkley Deserve MVP?
Saquon Barkley’s top 8 plays this season:
A thread: 🪡 🧵
No. 8: long run vs Buccaneers
— SaquonMuse⚡️ (@MuseSaquon) December 20, 2024
- Odds: +5,000
- Rushing Yards: 2,005
- Scrimmage Yards: 125.3
- Rushing Touchdowns: 13
- Philadelphia Eagles’ Record: 13-3
The Skinny: During Philly’s Jalen Hurts-as-QB1 era (2021-present), Philly hasn’t had a true bell-cow back. Last season, D’Andre Swift semi-split carries with Kenneth Gainwell, while in 2022, it was a Miles Sanders/Gainwell combo platter.
This year, it’s all Saquon, all the time, and his presence has distracted opposing defenses to the point that Hurts delivered the top QBR of his career (103.7). The best players make their teammates better, and Barkley has done exactly that.
Does Joe Burrow Deserve MVP?
THIS JOE BURROW PLAY IS ONE OF THE BEST PLAYS OF ALL TIME.
🤯🤯🤯
Crazy. The only quarterback in football that could do this, this season.
pic.twitter.com/Ynkl8j7ipa— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 22, 2024
- Odds: +3,000
- Passing Yards: 4,918
- Passing Touchdowns: 43
- Interceptions: 9
- Completion Percentage: 70.6
- PFN QB+: 92.2
- Rushing Yards: 201
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2
- Cincinnati Bengals Record: 9-8
The Skinny: The Bengals have lost their eight games by a combined total of 39 points, so if the team had managed six more well-timed touchdowns, the award would’ve gone to Burrow, likely by a wide margin. But MVPs rarely come from teams that finish at or around .500, so Burrow and his (almost) 5,000 passing yards will likely have to wait.
Does Lamar Jackson Deserve MVP?
Ok this is the absolute sickest play I’ve ever seen a QB make. Lamar ACTION Jackson
▪️fumble snap
▪️stuff arm defenders
▪️highlight reel TD throw on the move
pic.twitter.com/7FCq102ZPi— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) October 6, 2024
- Passing Yards: 4,172
- Passing Touchdowns: 41
- Completion Percentage: 66.7%
- PFN QB+: 100.0
- Rushing Yards: 915
- Rushing Touchdowns: 4
- Baltimore Ravens Record: 12-5
The Skinny: Jackson’s numbers compare favorably to his two other MVP seasons, but this might be a voter fatigue situation. As an inter-sport comparison, Michael Jordan probably should’ve won three more MVPs, but after grabbing two in a row (1990-91, 1991-92), voters were probably like, “Eh, let’s throw Charles Barkley a bone.”