Winning two MVPs is difficult, but Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson strengthened his case with a big win over the San Francisco 49ers on Christmas Day.
With 15 of the past 16 NFL MVPs being quarterback and just one instance over the past 20 years where a QB won the award as a part of a team that lost more than four games, the math for this honor is reasonably straightforward.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, and San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey have certainly had their most valuable moments, but history puts him in a tough spot to finish this season as the leading vote-getter.
So what does the market say about where we stand with two weeks remaining in the 2023 NFL regular season?
Lamar Jackson’s Current MVP Odds
Courtesy of FanDuel, we have some early updates on the MVP betting market:
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: -140
- Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: +250
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: +650
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: +900
- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: +1100
- Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: +1500
Has Jackson Won the NFL MVP Before?
In his second professional season, during the 2019 campaign, Jackson was deemed the Most Valuable Player. He played 15 games that year and now has 15 games on his 2023 resume, so let’s compare:
2019 / 2023
- Yards per pass: 7.8 / 7.7
- Interception rate: 1.5% / 1.6%
- Completion percentage: 66.1% / 66.3%
- Ravens record: 13-2 / 12-3
The touchdown numbers are down, but he does get extra credit for again leading a team without a proven target earner at the WR position. That 2019 team saw rookie Marquise Brown lead their WRs in catches, targets, yards, and touchdowns – a role the rookie WR Zay Flowers currently holds for this team.
He also deserves kudos (along with OC Todd Monken) for adjusting on the fly to TE Mark Andrews’ season-ending injury in Week 11 — not to mention starting RB J.K. Dobbins not making it into the fourth quarter of Week 1 before an Achilles tear.
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A statement win over another MVP candidate is critical for an award that has some subjectivity to it. Jackson was fine in the big Week 16 win, but sometimes it’s a matter of not losing the award in a big spot.
- 2019: Baltimore won at Seattle 30-16, and Seahawks QB Russell Wilson posted his worst passer rating of the season
- 2023: Baltimore won at San Francisco 33-19, and 49ers QB Brock Purdy posted his worst passer rating of the season, so far
Who Else Can Win the NFL MVP Award?
I mentioned Prescott, Allen, and McCaffrey off the top as elite performers who didn’t check two basic historic trends when it comes to earning MVP honors.
All three of them are capable of winning, but at this point, they need some help. I agree with the sportsbooks that, of those three, CMC’s path to the award is the clearest.
McCaffrey has scored in every 49ers loss this season, tied the NFL record for consecutive games with a scrimmage touchdown (17), and has largely been unstoppable at a position that usually wears down — even the game’s finest — by the end of the season.
He has been phenomenal and could end up being on the NFC’s top seed. But the RB position has been one that the NFL has consistently told us is of minimal value, thus making a narrative flip to labeling the best in the game as the most “valuable” option in the sport a bit of a stretch.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers: As good as he’s been this season (NFL MVP Odds Entering Week 16), a four-interception game as a 6.5-point favorite against Jackson is going to be a tall hurdle to clear.
Add in the fact that his teammate is now priced ahead of him, and while we can all agree that Purdy is far exceeding our draft-day expectations, a leap to the league’s most valuable player is now more of a dream than an expectation.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins: Jackson had a chance to make his case this week by traveling to the house of the award favorite this week, and Tagovailoa is in that exact spot on New Year’s Eve. A win would put the Dolphins in a position to earn the AFC’s top seed and avoid that dreaded fifth loss that I alluded to earlier.
Tagovailoa has been great this season (70.5% complete, up from 64.8% last season) and deserves the consideration that he is getting, now that the door is open. That said, he is going to suffer some of the same vote splitting that Purdy is in danger of, as a result of WR Tyreek Hill’s dominance.
The win on Sunday is a “must-have,” not a “nice-to-have,” and so is finishing off the top seed in the AFC. As much as this is a QB award, it’s also a “reward the best team award.” Tagolvailoa’s numbers aren’t jaw-dropping, and neither are Lamar’s.
We can agree that their impact exceeds their numbers, and that leads me to think that the AFC’s top seed is home to the 2023 MVP.
Who that player is will be determined over the next two weeks. Much like Purdy in Week 16, I believe Jackson has a chance to lock this thing up with a win against one of his primary contenders in Week 17. Can he finish the deal?
I sure hope so.
- NFL MVP Odds 2023: Predictions, Sleepers, and Longshots
- Post Week 11 – Is Lamar Jackson a Good MVP Bet?
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