The Arizona Cardinals finished among the league’s worst last season, but with their star back under center, in the mix, and healthy, they look to return to contention for the division title. And the Seattle Seahawks are looking for a return to the postseason if their leader can return to the form he found in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are led by two of the league’s best running backs in 2023.
As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, let’s look at the betting markets and see who is the most likely player to win the MVP award on each team in the NFC West.
Top NFL MVP Candidate on Each NFC West Team
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (+5000)
We don’t need to overthink this one. Kyler Murray is the star of the Arizona Cardinals, and for the team to compete in the NFC West, he will need to be the driving force behind that.
Murray returned in Week 10 of the 2023 season, and from that point on, the Cardinals averaged 362.8 yards per game on offense, with averages of 210 passing yards and 22.4 offensive points scored per game. Without Murray, those numbers were 289.7, 162.7, and 16.0, respectively.
That is a stark contrast. That change in success is also shown in the results, with the Cardinals going 3-5 with Murray, compared to 1-8 without him.
Sure, extrapolating 3-5 over the course of a season isn’t winning you an MVP award, but combining it with the growth of this team under Jonathan Gannon and 10+ wins is firmly in the picture if Murray is healthy.
Without him, 10 wins wouldn’t be considered, which is why he’s the Cardinals’ MVP candidate.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (+20000)
When you look at the MVP betting odds, it is Matthew Stafford getting the most respect among the Los Angeles Rams players. While I understand it, recent history suggests that is not the right call here. In the last two years, Stafford has missed 10 games, and his play has been less than stellar when he has been on the field.
Maybe having both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp together all season could change that, but I am not banking on it.
Similarly, I cannot make the case for either Kupp or Nacua to be the MVP simply because I believe they will take from each other too much. If someone in the passing game wins the MVP award, it will likely be Stafford, which leaves me looking to the run game.
Kyren Williams broke out in a big way last season, with 1,144 rushing yards, 206 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns. Yes, he also missed time through injury, and that is always a risk with a running back. But Williams has that McCaffrey profile you look for in a non-QB MVP candidate.
If he can average around 20 carries per game and increase his targets per game to five or more, Williams could be the star of this Rams offense. It is rightly a long shot, but if you were betting on a non-McCaffrey RB to win the award, Williams would be my pick.
– Rolfe
San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (+4000)
Brock Purdy had a top-10 season in terms of efficiency in 2023 — the top-10 in the history of the sport, not just in the scope of last season — and guess what? He finished second on his own team in the MVP voting.
Like it or not, the voters made it known last season that they view Christian McCaffrey as the reason this offense is so productive, and I have a hard time seeing that change. It’s rare that a running back is the betting favorite from a playoff team to win this award, and the sportsbooks actually give Purdy better odds.
However, that may actually make McCaffrey a solid value, given how the voters viewed the McCaffrey-Purdy split in terms of importance to the team last year.
Can McCaffrey score 20+ touchdowns again? Amazingly, it is hard to say definitely that he will not. Both Purdy and McCaffrey and solid MVP options, but while both play well, neither may actually be able to win the award.
– Soppe
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith (+12000)
The Seattle Seahawks are one of those teams where no one stands out as an obvious MVP candidate. Geno Smith would need a remarkable year to take home the award because we saw that a 30-touchdown season with over 4,250 passing yards was only good enough for ninth in 2022.
Counting against him that season was likely that the Seahawks finished 9-8, so a similar statistical profile with a 12-5 finish might get him close to the top five.
It is a big question whether Smith can do that with a new coaching staff after Pete Carroll’s departure this offseason. We already saw Smith take a slight step back when Dave Canales departed ahead of 2023, but will this latest change reinvigorate him or further that downward movement?
However, Smith is the clear favorite among the Seahawks to be an MVP candidate. Kenneth Walker III is very good, but is likely to share his role too much to take home a trophy. Similarly, at WR, they have three very talented WRs, but the presence of three high-quality WRs means that it is unlikely any of them could stand out enough to win the MVP award.
– Rolfe