The NFC has come away with just three of the last 10 Super Bowl titles, with Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady dominating the era. And while Brady is out of the way, the Chiefs’ QB remains the benchmark every season, whether it’s for an NFL championship or an MVP award.
Could this be the year that an NFC team emerges, elevating their star into MVP contention? There are no currently active former MVPs in the NFC, meaning there is a market for a potential first-time recipient in the conference.
As we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season, let’s look at the betting markets and see who is the most likely player to win the MVP award on each team in the NFC.
Top NFL MVP Candidate on Each NFC Team
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (+5000)
We don’t need to overthink this one. Kyler Murray is the star of the Arizona Cardinals, and for the team to compete in the NFC West, he will need to be the driving force behind that.
Murray returned in Week 10 of the 2023 season, and from that point on, the Cardinals averaged 362.8 yards per game on offense, with averages of 210 passing yards and 22.4 offensive points scored per game. Without Murray, those numbers were 289.7, 162.7, and 16.0, respectively.
That is a stark contrast. That change in success is also shown in the results, with the Cardinals going 3-5 with Murray, compared to 1-8 without him.
Sure, extrapolating 3-5 over the course of a season isn’t winning you an MVP award, but combining it with the growth of this team under Jonathan Gannon and 10+ wins is firmly in the picture if Murray is healthy.
Without him, 10 wins wouldn’t be considered, which is why he’s the Cardinals’ MVP candidate.
– Ben Rolfe, PFN Deputy Editor of Sports Betting, Fantasy, and Scouting
Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins (+3500)
The Falcons won seven games with this same nucleus of skill-position players and elected to burn their first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to contribute to success immediately.
Of course, Kirk Cousins was Atlanta’s big move this offseason, and if the Falcons win double-digit games like the betting markets expect, he’ll be the one given credit.
Since 2020, Cousins has ranked fifth in passing yards per game and fourth in passer rating among qualifiers, proof that he can put up the numbers required for consideration. If you’re looking for a long shot with an actual path to cashing an MVP ticket, Cousins makes for an interesting dart throw (+3500).
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young (+15000)
It’s well known that no one on the Panthers is likely to win MVP, but if by some miracle this team wins 12+ games, who is most likely to win it? Bryce Young.
The sophomore QB is the key to Carolina’s success. Young needs to take a massive step forward if the Panthers are going to be competitive.
Of course, him winning MVP is one of the least likely outcomes. There’s a reason he’s +15000. The Hail Mary case is that this is last year’s No. 1 overall pick.
Young was chosen first overall for a reason. That talent was evident in spots last year, and it may continue into this year as well.
Is Young capable of the season needed to win MVP? Probably not. But there’s exactly a 0% chance anyone else on Carolina who could win MVP.
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (+5000)
Of all the additions the Chicago Bears have made this offseason, the only player who will likely be credited with leading their success, if they have any, is rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
The Bears decided to move on from Justin Fields and draft Williams first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Barring injury, he will almost certainly start this season.
Williams has been put in the best position of arguably any top-five selection at the QB position ever. Chicago added Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift in free agency and then drafted Rome Odunze. That has surrounded Williams with a wealth of talent, which should help this offense to click in 2024.
While Swift is a good running back, and both Allen and Moore are wonderful pass catchers, none is likely to have a Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill-level impact. Therefore, if anyone is going to receive the MVP award in Chicago, it will be Williams.
– Rolfe
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott (+1700)
The only answer here is Dak Prescott at +1700. Last season, he finished second in MVP voting behind Lamar Jackson.
Prescott is capable of the type of season needed to win MVP. He led the NFL in touchdown passes last year with 36. Back in 2020, Prescott was on pace to shatter the passing yards record before breaking his ankle. Prolific passing is in his repertoire.
This year, the Cowboys have their weakest backfield since the Troy Hambrick days. Even with Tony Pollard, we saw them go pass-heavy over the second half of last season because the run just wasn’t working. With Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott could attempt 650 passes.
If Prescott throws for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns while leading the Cowboys to at least 12 wins and a division title, combined with the fact that he’s never won it, Prescott is certainly capable of winning MVP.
– Katz
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (+2000)
It’s only a matter of time until we change the labeling of this award to the MVQB: 16 of the past 17 winners have been signal callers, including a current run of 11 straight. Taking snaps is the first unofficial qualifier for this honor, and not far behind is team success, as only once since 2003 has the MVP gone to a quarterback leading a team that lost more than four games during the regular season.
In that vein, I labeled my betting pool as the quarterbacks on the top-10 teams in terms of implied win totals. The QBs who have hoisted the trophy have been heavily relied upon, rarely sharing a backfield with a heavily involved traditional back. In fact, over the past decade, the lead running back playing alongside the MVP averaged 949.2 rushing yards for the season.
It’s time to start eliminating names. Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers all checked the implied wins box, but all have a star RB whose rushing yardage total is posted at or above 975.
With six names remaining on my list, I elected to look at how these quarterbacks have produced their video game numbers.
MVP winners:
- 2014-19: 9.0 average depth of target (aDOT)
- 2020-23: 7.8 average depth of target
This trend helps me eliminate four more names. We need volume statistics, and these short passes have proven to be the best way of doing that.
Gone is C.J. Stroud (aDOT rose by 21% in the second half of his season, and Year 2 QBs have posted a higher aDOT than Year 1 QBs over the past decade). The award’s favorite, Patrick Mahomes, has a downward-trending aDOT, but the construction of this roster hints that we could see that change in 2024.
The general perception of the Buffalo Bills after Joe Brady took over was one of conservative nature, but Josh Allen’s aDOT actually rose by 8.3% after the change in OC (not to mention that James Cook averaged 16.7 carries per game over that stretch and is someone I’d bet to clear that 950 rushing yard threshold from earlier).
Dak Prescott saw his aDOT increase last season and posted the highest deep ball completion percentage of his career. With the Cowboys allowing pressure at the fifth-lowest rate, the time to throw those passes makes him a good bet to produce similar numbers this season.
That’s right, this is a Joe Burrow vs. Jared Goff situation for me. I think Burrow is the greater talent, but there is certainly more health risk in his profile. Beyond that, 35.3% of NFL games are played within your own division.
AFC North Defensive EPA Ranks:
- Browns: 1st
- Ravens: 3rd
- Steelers: 7th
NFC North Defensive EPA Ranks:
- Bears: 14th
- Vikings: 20th
- Packers: 23rd
AFC North opponents allowed 66.3% of yards to come through the air compared to 68.4% by the NFC North. This isn’t directly a fantasy football-based award, though eye-popping statistics certainly help. With divisional games backloaded, Goff could separate himself down the stretch much like Jackson did last season.
– Soppe
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (+1400)
Jordan Love jumped out of the shadow of Aaron Rodgers with an impressive 2023 season, his first as a starter. Love finished with 32 touchdowns and 4,159 yards as the Green Bay Packers ended the year with a 9-8 record. That performance in his first season has meant that Love heads into the 2024 season with the fifth-shortest odds of any MVP candidate.
For that to become a reality, we need to see further growth from Love and the Packers’ offense, as they finished in the middle of the pack in a number of offensive categories last year. One area that they could easily improve is their red-zone efficiency.
Per TruMedia, the Packers ranked 19th in the league with a 51.6% conversion rate of red-zone opportunities to touchdowns, despite having a 95% conversion rate on goal-to-go opportunities. If Love and the Packers can get into the top 10 in red-zone efficiency, they will put themselves in the conversations with the elite offenses and put Love firmly in the MVP discussion.
– Rolfe
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (+20000)
When you look at the MVP betting odds, it is Matthew Stafford getting the most respect among the Los Angeles Rams players. While I understand it, recent history suggests that is not the right call here. In the last two years, Stafford has missed 10 games, and his play has been less than stellar when he has been on the field.
Maybe having both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp together all season could change that, but I am not banking on it.
Similarly, I cannot make the case for either Kupp or Nacua to be the MVP simply because I believe they will take from each other too much. If someone in the passing game wins the MVP award, it will likely be Stafford, which leaves me looking to the run game.
Kyren Williams broke out in a big way last season, with 1,144 rushing yards, 206 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns. Yes, he also missed time through injury, and that is always a risk with a running back. But Williams has that McCaffrey profile you look for in a non-QB MVP candidate.
If he can average around 20 carries per game and increase his targets per game to five or more, Williams could be the star of this Rams offense. It is rightly a long shot, but if you were betting on a non-McCaffrey RB to win the award, Williams would be my pick.
– Rolfe
Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson (+13000)
Trends are made to be broken, and if the Vikings win the NFC North, we have a decent chance of getting the first receiver to earn MVP honors.
Justin Jefferson has done everything and more than you could ask for through four seasons, setting records every step of the way. If he can drag this team to the postseason with a journeyman or rookie under center, a star tight end on the shelf to start the season, and his WR2 in legal hot water — he’d be well deserving of the MVP.
Outside of Jefferson, what is Minnesota’s path to success in 2024?
– Soppe
New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (+40000)
I find it hard to envision Derek Carr standing on the stage at NFL Honors in February, holding the NFL MVP award. His profile as a signal-caller does not fit that mold, and that means I am looking elsewhere for my MVP candidate from the New Orleans Saints.
A couple of years ago, Taysom Hill might have been that thought, simply because of the X-factor potential, but those days have now passed.
That leaves us with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave as the two main options. Kamara certainly has the McCaffrey prototype we would look for, but I doubt his ability to stay healthy for 17 games, which is what he would need.
That leads me to Olave, who will officially become the Saints’ center of attention following Michael Thomas’s departure this offseason. Olave has flashed his potential through two seasons with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and a fourth-placed finish in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2022.
The biggest improvement would need to come in his ability to find the end zone. With just nine touchdowns in two seasons, that career number would likely need to double in 2024, combined with more than 1,500 receiving yards.
– Rolfe
New York Giants: Daniel Jones (+15000)
Daniel Jones may well be one of the most confounding QBs to play the game in recent years. Sometimes he looks incredible, a match-winner that can turn games with his arm or legs, and put the team on his back. At other times he looks like a player in his rookie season, making bizarre mistakes and being chewed out by his coach on the sideline.
However, his X-factor potential gives him the New York Giants’ best chance of winning the MVP award this season.
In 2022, Jones found the end zone seven times with his legs while rushing for 708 yards. If he can combine that with a performance akin to his rookie season in terms of passing the ball (24 touchdowns and 232.8 passing yards per game), then he will be somewhere close to the conversation.
I am not saying Jones is anywhere near as talented as Lamar Jackson, but it is the Jackson model of MVP that we have to look at with Jones. Jackson’s MVP awards have come without him throwing for 40+ touchdowns or for 4,000 yards. Last year he finished with numbers of 3,678 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns. He didn’t even rush for 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns. He was just efficient.
A realistic stat line for Jones to win MVP would be 3.500+ passing yards, 25-30 passing touchdowns, 800+ rushing yards, and 8-10 rushing touchdowns, while also avoiding costly mistakes. He would also need to lead his team to a 12- or 13-win season, which is unlikely.
I am not saying anyone should bet on Jones for MVP, but there is a path for the ultimate comeback story for the Giants’ much-maligned QB.
– Rolfe
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts (+1500)
After an MVP-worthy performance in 2022, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts took a step back last season. Yet, following the hiring of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Hurts is due for a bounce-back year in 2024.
Hurts is surrounded by a plethora of offensive weapons, including A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley. Moore could prove to be Philadelphia’s most notable offseason addition, though.
Moore’s offensive scheme excels in several areas where Hurts struggled last season, especially against the blitz. If Hurts embraces Moore’s system and takes a step forward, the 25-year-old quarterback should be an MVP candidate in 2024.
– Anthony DiBona, Pro Football Network NFL Writer
San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (+4000)
Brock Purdy had a top-10 season in terms of efficiency in 2023 — the top-10 in the history of the sport, not just in the scope of last season — and guess what? He finished second on his own team in the MVP voting.
Like it or not, the voters made it known last season that they view Christian McCaffrey as the reason this offense is so productive, and I have a hard time seeing that change. It’s rare that a running back is the betting favorite from a playoff team to win this award, and the sportsbooks actually give Purdy better odds.
However, that may actually make McCaffrey a solid value, given how the voters viewed the McCaffrey-Purdy split in terms of importance to the team last year.
Can McCaffrey score 20+ touchdowns again? Amazingly, it is hard to say definitely that he will not. Both Purdy and McCaffrey and solid MVP options, but while both play well, neither may actually be able to win the award.
– Soppe
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith (+12000)
The Seattle Seahawks are one of those teams where no one stands out as an obvious MVP candidate. Geno Smith would need a remarkable year to take home the award because we saw that a 30-touchdown season with over 4,250 passing yards was only good enough for ninth in 2022.
Counting against him that season was likely that the Seahawks finished 9-8, so a similar statistical profile with a 12-5 finish might get him close to the top five.
It is a big question whether Smith can do that with a new coaching staff after Pete Carroll’s departure this offseason. We already saw Smith take a slight step back when Dave Canales departed ahead of 2023, but will this latest change reinvigorate him or further that downward movement?
However, Smith is the clear favorite among the Seahawks to be an MVP candidate. Kenneth Walker III is very good, but is likely to share his role too much to take home a trophy. Similarly, at WR, they have three very talented WRs, but the presence of three high-quality WRs means that it is unlikely any of them could stand out enough to win the MVP award.
– Rolfe
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (+7500)
We just discussed Canales’ impact on Smith’s statistics, and the story is somewhat similar for Baker Mayfield.
The veteran QB had a career year as the starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Canales as his offensive coordinator, but now he has to adapt to a different coach, and that is a major concern.
In what was a relatively weak MVP field last year, 4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns did not even put Mayfield in the picture for votes. Sure, he got consideration for Comeback Player of the Year, but the statistical bar is much lower for that award.
Therefore, we would need to see Mayfield post a 35+ touchdown season, and probably add 500+ passing yards. Doing so would change the narrative of Mayfield’s career entirely.
Mayfield is the clear favorite to be the leading Buccaneers’ player in the MVP voting, mainly because there is no other stand-out candidate. However, it would require him to add around 10-15% on top of what were already career-high numbers in 2023.
– Rolfe
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (+12000)
It’s certainly not likely, but there’s a world in which Jayden Daniels, if fully unleashed, produces numbers that look something like Lamar Jackson’s from 2023 (3,678 passing yards, 821 rushing yards, and 29 total touchdowns).
Of course, he’d need the Commanders to win every close game and earn a spot in the playoffs to even appear on the ballot, but if we’re talking pie-in-the-sky situations in which that happens, their rookie quarterback is going to be at the center of it and would be the second rookie in the league’s history to earn MVP honors (Jim Brown in 1957).
– Soppe