Going into Week 4, Tua Tagovailoa had the shortest NFL MVP odds at all of the sportsbooks. Averaging 341 yards per game and leading the Miami Dolphins to a 3-0 start, including scoring 70 points in their Week 3 blowout win over the Denver Broncos, Tua emerged as the sole favorite at +380.
But after winning by 50 points last week, the Dolphins were dominated by the divisional-rival Buffalo Bills today, losing 48-20. After all of the hype surrounding Tua and his MVP candidacy, it was Josh Allen who stole the show, throwing for 320 yards and having as many touchdown passes (four) as incompletions.
Prior to Week 1, Allen was behind just Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in the NFL MVP betting odds leaderboard. But after his monster performance today, where does he stand now?
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Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa Are New Co-Favorites for NFL MVP
Currently at DraftKings Sportsbook, Allen and Tua are the betting co-favorites to win MVP, as they’re tied for the shortest odds at +550. Shortly behind them is Mahomes, the reigning MVP who was the favorite to repeat as the award winner going into the season.
Although they lost by 28 points, and he was far less impressive than he was the first three weeks, Tua still had a solid enough day not to drop too far in the MVP race. His performance up until this week had been so spectacular as well that it would’ve required a disastrous day from Tua for him to see his odds increase significantly.
After a rough start to the season in which he threw three interceptions in the Bills’ Week 1 loss to the New York Jets, Allen has been on an absolute tear. Since then, he has thrown for eight touchdowns and just one interception, leading the Bills to a three-game winning streak.
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Most impressive of all, the Bills aren’t just beating teams; they’re completely dominating them. In their last three games, they’re outscoring their opponents by an average of 30 points per game.
Behind Allen, Tua, and Mahomes in NFL MVP odds are Jalen Hurts (+750) and Lamar Jackson (+1200) to round out the top five. Although the Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles haven’t looked as explosive offensively as they did a season ago, they’re one of the two undefeated teams remaining at 4-0.
If Hurts and the Eagles continue rolling, don’t be surprised to see him enter the MVP conversation with the three co-favorites.
We’ll monitor how the Sunday Night Football game impacts the odds, but it looks like we’ll have a very competitive NFL MVP race this season, to say the least.