Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston made our list of biggest disappointments in Week 5. What drove the disappointment is the fact Winston leads all quarterbacks in OSM for 2019, yet was underwhelming last Sunday. Not only is Winston first among quarterbacks on the season, but he received the highest OSM grade at his position in Week 3 and Week 4, making Week 5 the trough in what has become known as the Winston rollercoaster.
Tampa Bay is traveling to London to play a “home game” against the Panthers. These two teams have already met this season, so we have data for the matchup. In Week 2, Winston finished with the seventh-highest OSM grade among quarterbacks. Three of the six quarterbacks ahead of him in Week 2 were Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, and Mahomes, who had an easier time beating up on Washington, Miami, and Oakland, respectively.
Despite the trek across the pond, Winston has a good chance to return to achieving an elite OSM grade against Carolina.
Jared Goff
Jared Goff’s struggles since the team’s 2018 bye week have been well chronicled. Through five games in 2019, he is QB31 in OSM. Additionally, Goff ranks 19th in DYAR, 22nd in DVOA, and 22nd in ANY/A.
A contributing factor to Goff’s low OSM grade is his expected completion percentage differential. To date, Goff is completing 63.1% of his passes, despite having an expected completion percentage of 67.2%, resulting in a -4.2% differential. That -4.2% is the seventh-worst mark in the league, and fifth-worst if we institute a minimum threshold of 65 pass attempts.
Goff is also not looking downfield in comparison to his peers or his 2018 self. Last year, Goff’s average intended air yards were 8.8 yards per attempt, which was the eighth-highest mark in the league. This year, that number is down to 8.0 yards per attempt. While that drop off itself isn’t steep, in 2019, he has fallen from eighth in the category to tied for 19th. Other quarterbacks have become more aggressive, looking to move the ball in bigger chunks, while Goff has embraced stasis at best.
It may be hard for Goff to take more downfield shots on Sunday against the 49ers, as they sport the league’s top pass defense by DVOA. Still, if the Rams wish to rebound off a tough divisional loss with a huge divisional win, Goff is going to have to increase how much he is contributing to this offense.
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford sits as QB4 in OSM through five weeks. The other metrics back up that he is having a fantastic season, as he ranks sixth in DYAR, fourth in DVOA, and fifth in ANY/A. In Week 6, Stafford will get a national platform to showcase his strong start.
The Lions will be traveling to Green Bay on Monday night, but so far in 2019, it is Detroit that holds the quarterback advantage. We’re not suggesting Stafford is superior to Aaron Rodgers. We’re merely pointing out that in 2019, Stafford has done better at shouldering a heavier burden. Stafford’s rankings are noted above, and he outpaces Rodgers in each category as the Packers’ quarterback is QB27 in OSM and ranks eighth, ninth, and 12th in DYAR, DVOA, and ANY/A, respectively.
This could easily flip in the remainder of the season, starting with Rodgers out dueling Stafford on Monday night. Either way, Stafford is off to a strong start and is predominantly responsible for his own output. His team gets their first big divisional test Monday night, and they will need Stafford to put the team on his shoulders.